Let's talk about the dollar for a second. Since April 2nd, basically since the start of the second quarter, we've seen the dollar fall about 6% historically. How big of a move is that.And do you see that as a potential warning sign for equity investors. Yeah, clearly the the decline in the dollar here reflects this loss of confidence in US trade uh security and and perhaps even fiscal policy because you also see a bit of a divergence between the dollar index and rate differential. I think that reflects this ...

Interest Rate Outlook - Wells Fargo anticipates one rate cut in 2025 and one in 2026, suggesting a neutral rate around 100 basis points above inflation [3] - Piper Sandler suggests the economy needs rate cuts to broaden fundamental breadth beyond the largest companies and wealthiest consumers [7][13] - The market is already at all-time highs, priced for only a couple of cuts [4] Economic Indicators and Analysis - The economy is bifurcated, with housing and small caps showing weakness, while S&P 500 profits are at new highs [6][7] - US PMIs remain broadly in contraction territory [6] - Unemployment at 41%, and Q2 GDP tracking around 25% do not indicate an immediate need for Fed rate cuts [9] - Positive year-over-year earnings growth suggests no imminent recession or material slowdown [10] Earnings Growth - Consensus is tracking 5% to 6% earnings growth for Q2, potentially reaching 7% to 9% with beats, following Q1's 15% earnings growth [11] Market Performance - NASDAQ is at an all-time high, with Nvidia's market cap exceeding $4 trillion [1] - The market exhibits narrowness, with concerns about smaller companies and lower-income consumers being left behind [8][13]

Things I’m interested in today: (07.07.2025):- Bonk vs Pump eco. Seems like consensus/astroturfing on the timeline that Bonk is now “winning” (whatever that means) and it’s over for pump. Not sure if that’s all just bait or ppl really believe it, but I think it would be foolish to count out an eco that raised 9 at 10 Val and literally created the trenches.- a lot of political/broader economy news. Trump v Elon. Tariff News (think this probably is “good” and the worst tariff stuff behind us). More treasury c ...

Market Overview - Wall Street is experiencing a rally due to easing tariff fears and optimism regarding a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the near future [1][2] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached new closing highs, with investors hopeful that a rate cut will further enhance stock performance [1] Trade Agreements - Recent trade deals between the United States and Vietnam, as well as with China and the United Kingdom, have positively influenced market sentiment [4][5] - Despite the positive news, uncertainties remain regarding the impact of new tariffs on the economy, as the White House has not provided clarity [6] Federal Reserve Outlook - Optimism surrounding an anticipated rate cut in July is contributing to the market rally, although Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has maintained a hawkish stance [7] - Market participants are expecting two 25-basis-point rate cuts by the end of the year, but the lack of a clear timeline from the Federal Reserve may affect investor sentiment [7] Dividend-Paying Stocks - In light of market volatility, cautious investors may consider dividend-paying stocks for stable income and capital protection [3] - Three notable dividend-paying stocks include: - **Bank OZK**: Announced a dividend of $0.44 per share with a yield of 3.38%, having increased its dividend 21 times over the past five years [9][11] - **Lindsay Corporation**: Declared a dividend of $0.37 per share with a yield of 0.98%, having increased its dividend five times in five years [13][11] - **Sandstorm Gold Ltd.**: Announced a dividend of $0.02 per share with a yield of 0.59%, having raised its dividend seven times in five years [15][11]

Interest Rate Cut Probability - July interest rate cut probability significantly decreased to 5% (down from 24% yesterday) [1] - September interest rate cut probability decreased to 78% (down from 96% yesterday) [1] Market Reaction - Rate cut futures markets experienced big moves following the strong jobs report [1]

Market Performance & Correction - The S&P 500 experienced a near 20% correction previously, and is currently up only 4% to 5% year-to-date [1] - The market has recovered from a significant correction, but it's not yet experiencing irrational exuberance [2] - Elevated uncertainty suggests the possibility of 2 to 3 corrections being the norm for the year, indicating potential for more volatility [2] Economic Factors & Uncertainty - The market is waiting to see the impact of tariff rates on inflation and the labor market [4] - Investors and the Fed are largely in a wait-and-see mode regarding trade and tariff headlines, a tax bill, and potentially softer economic growth [3][2] - The impact of tariffs on inflation and the labor market has been pretty benign thus far [4] Monetary Policy - The Fed is expected to cut rates if the benign impact of tariffs continues [4] - The pace of the Fed's rate cuts, whether gradual or aggressive, remains uncertain [4] Market Outlook - No signs of a complete reversal, bear market, or bubble burst are currently visible [3] - Momentum in the market tends to continue, potentially leading to overshooting on both the upside and downside [2]

Monetary Policy & Interest Rates - The market anticipates a potential rate cut, influenced by positive economic indicators such as solid growth, good labor market conditions, and receding inflation [4][5] - The Fed is closely monitoring data and considering potential tariff impacts on inflation before making decisions on rate cuts [7][8] - Some voting governors are supportive of a rate cut [5] - The President has expressed a desire for rate cuts of 200 to 300 basis points [5] Fed's Mandate & Focus - There is a perspective that the Fed's primary mandate should be price stability, with less emphasis on full employment, as fiscal policy has a greater impact on employment [9][12][13] - Consistency in the Fed's communication and policy is urged, particularly regarding fiscal policy and its impact on inflation [15][16][17] Treasury Market Resilience - A task force is evaluating Treasury market resilience in the face of large budget deficits [19] - The Fed is considering waiving the supplemental leverage ratio to provide more liquidity to the Treasury market [20] - Clearing treasury trades, as agreed by the former SEC chair, is expected to enhance market resilience [21]

Key Takeaways Bitcoin stays above $100K amid Iran-Israel conflict, investors eye crypto-related stock opportunities. CME, V and PYPL posted positive earnings estimate revisions in the past 90 days, signaling growth ahead. Domestic tailwinds like easing inflation, trade deals, crypto-friendly policy are supporting market sentiment.The cryptocurrency is still going strong, with Bitcoin (BTC) holding above $100,000 after hitting an all-time high last month. However, the rally has been threatened over the las ...

The US and Chinese officials reached an agreement during a London meeting this week. President Trump cheering the deal on so truth social this morning, outlining some of the details and hailing the relationship between the two countries as excellent. Here with the details, our very own Fed correspondent Jennifer Shamberger.Hey, Jennifer. Good morning, Maddie. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant set to testify this morning here on Capitol Hill.Just hours after wrapping up two days of trade negotiations with Chi ...