Market Overview - Bitcoin has experienced a bullish trend, reaching a 19-day high, attributed to cooler inflation data ahead of the Federal Reserve's rate cut decision [1][2] - Bitcoin's price increased by 1.5% in the last 24 hours, trading at $115,680 after peaking above $116,300 [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) unexpectedly fell by 0.1% in August, marking the first decline since April, driven by lower prices for unprocessed goods and easing service costs [2][3] - The market anticipates a high probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with a 92.7% chance of a 25 basis point cut according to CME's FedWatch tool [3] Future Outlook - Experts predict a significant surge in Bitcoin prices towards the end of the year as the Federal Reserve begins its rate-cutting cycle [4] - On-chain data indicates that selling pressure from profit-taking has diminished, leading to a bullish sentiment in the market [4] Altcoin Performance - While Bitcoin reached a 19-day high, key altcoins like Ethereum, XRP, and Solana have shown only single-digit gains, whereas Dogecoin and Hyperliquid have surged by 25% and 23% respectively in the past 24 hours [5]

Market Overview - GIFT Nifty indicates a positive start for Dalal Street, trading higher by 76.5 points, or 0.30%, at 25,182.50 [1][12] - Indian equity markets have shown positive momentum for the seventh consecutive day, driven by easing India-US trade relations and expectations of a US Federal Reserve rate cut [12] US Market Performance - Wall Street's main indexes reached record-high closes, supported by gains in Tesla and Micron Technology, alongside favorable inflation and jobless data that suggest a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [2][12] - The S&P 500 rose by 0.85%, Nasdaq increased by 0.72%, and Dow Jones climbed by 1.36% [5] Asian Market Trends - Asian shares experienced gains, joining a global equity rally following tame US inflation data and cooling job numbers, which bolster expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut [3][12] Commodity Prices - Gold prices increased, marking a fourth consecutive weekly gain, driven by concerns over a weakening US labor market overshadowing inflation worries ahead of an anticipated Federal Reserve rate cut [7][12] - Oil prices declined due to concerns about softening US demand and oversupply, despite worries about supply disruptions from geopolitical conflicts [8][12] Foreign Investment Activity - Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) net sold shares worth Rs 3,472 crore, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net buyers at Rs 4,046 crore [10][12] - The position of FIIs in the futures market decreased from a net short of Rs 1.86 lakh crore to Rs 1.82 lakh crore [12] Currency Movement - The Indian rupee fell by 24 paise, closing at an all-time low of 88.35 against the US dollar, influenced by ongoing tariff issues between India and the US [11][12]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Reserve Bank of Peru has cut interest rates to the lowest level since 2022, reducing the benchmark rate to 4.25% from 4.5% due to an unexpected drop in inflation [1][2]. Economic Indicators - Consumer prices in Peru rose by only 1.11% in August year-over-year, marking one of the slowest inflation rates among major emerging markets and nearing the lower end of the central bank's target range [3]. - Strong economic activity was reported, with a 4.5% expansion in June compared to the previous year, which may limit the potential for further rate cuts [4]. Central Bank's Position - The central bank indicated that the current interest rate is close to its estimated neutral level and forecasts inflation to be near the center of its target range by the end of the year [2]. - The key rate in Peru is now aligned with the lower end of the range set by the US Federal Reserve, which may create caution regarding further reductions in rates due to potential capital outflows [3].

Core Viewpoint - US stocks exhibited mixed trading patterns as investors assessed the economy ahead of the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision [1] Group 1: Stock Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.4%, while the S&P 500 slipped below the flat line; in contrast, the Nasdaq Composite rose approximately 0.4% [2] - All three major indexes reached record highs on Thursday, with the Dow closing above 46,000 for the first time [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent jobs data indicated labor market weakness, with just over 20,000 jobs added last month and initial jobless claims reaching a near four-year high [3] - Inflation remains persistent, with consumer prices increasing last month, influenced by President Trump's tariffs [4] - The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey revealed a larger-than-expected decline in consumer sentiment for September, as concerns over tariffs grew [4] Group 3: Federal Reserve Expectations - Traders are anticipating a greater than 90% chance of a quarter-point interest rate cut during the Fed's September meeting, with around 75% expecting three cuts by year-end [5] - The lead-up to the Fed's meeting is expected to be quieter, with all major stock indexes on track for weekly gains exceeding 1% [5]

Core Viewpoint - US stocks exhibited mixed performance as investors assessed the economy ahead of the Federal Reserve's upcoming interest rate decision [1] Group 1: Stock Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.4%, while the S&P 500 slipped below the flat line, and the Nasdaq Composite rose approximately 0.3% [2] - All three major indexes reached record highs on Thursday, with the Dow closing above 46,000 for the first time [2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent jobs data indicated labor market weakness, with just over 20,000 jobs added last month and weekly initial jobless claims reaching a near four-year high [3] - Inflation remains persistent, with consumer prices increasing last month, influenced by President Trump's tariffs [3] Group 3: Consumer Sentiment and Expectations - The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey revealed a larger-than-expected decline in consumer sentiment for September, with long-run inflation expectations rising to 3.9% [4] - Investors are optimistic that inflation is manageable enough for the Fed to implement a rate cut next week [4] Group 4: Federal Reserve Rate Cut Expectations - Traders are anticipating a greater than 90% chance of a quarter-point cut during the Fed's September meeting, with around 75% expecting three cuts by the end of the year [5] - The lead-up to the Fed's meeting is expected to be quieter, with major stock indexes on track for weekly gains exceeding 1% [5]

Economic Overview - JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon expressed concerns about a weakening economy, indicating uncertainty about whether it is heading towards a recession [3] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the U.S. economy added 911,000 fewer jobs in the 12 months through March 2025 than previously estimated, marking the largest preliminary adjustment on record since 2000 [3][4] Consumer Spending Trends - Despite economic concerns, consumer spending remains consistent across all income levels, although lower-income consumers are depleting their balances compared to pre-pandemic levels [4] - There is a significant disparity between higher-income and lower-income consumers, which poses ongoing challenges for the economy [4] Inflation and Price Changes - Grocery prices increased by 0.6% from July to August, the largest monthly rise since August 2022, contributing to broader inflation concerns [5] - The Consumer Price Index rose by 2.9% over the 12 months ending in August, the most significant increase since January [5] Market Expectations - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates for the first time since January during its upcoming meeting [2] - Dimon suggested that while a rate cut is likely, it may not have a significant impact on the economy [3]

Scott Bessent, US treasury secretary, in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC, US, on Wednesday, Aug. 6, 2025.The search for the next Federal Reserve chair is continuing, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent taking point in meeting with several candidates on President Donald Trump's short list.In recent days, Bessent has met with former Fed officials Lawrence Lindsey, Kevin Warsh and James Bullard, a Treasury source told CNBC's Steve Liesman. Lindsey and Warsh both served as governors and B ...

Core Points - The Federal Open Market Committee is set to vote on lowering the Federal Reserve's key interest rate next Tuesday, with uncertainty surrounding the committee's composition [2][8] - Fed Governor Lisa Cook, who was fired by President Trump, has been reinstated by a court ruling, allowing her to continue her role while her case is ongoing [3] - President Trump is attempting to fill a vacancy on the Fed's board created by Adriana Kugler's resignation, with Stephen Miran nominated to replace her [4] Pressure for a Rate Cut - The control of the 12-person committee that sets the fed funds rate is at stake, which influences borrowing costs across various loans [5] - High interest rates have been criticized by President Trump, who argues they hinder economic growth and increase government interest payments on national debt [6] - Concerns have arisen among economists that the Fed may lower interest rates due to presidential pressure rather than economic necessity, raising questions about the Fed's independence [7]

Core Insights - The average rate on a 30-year U.S. mortgage has decreased to 6.35%, the lowest level in nearly a year, influenced by a pullback in Treasury yields and expectations of an interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve [1][3] - The average rate for 15-year fixed-rate mortgages has also declined to 5.5%, reflecting similar trends in the mortgage market [2] - The housing market has been experiencing a slump since 2022, with sluggish sales attributed to rising mortgage rates [8] Mortgage Rate Trends - The 30-year mortgage rate fell from 6.5% last week to 6.35%, compared to 6.2% a year ago [1] - The 15-year mortgage rate decreased from 5.6% to 5.5%, down from 5.27% a year ago [2] - Rates have been declining since late July, driven by expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut [3] Federal Reserve Influence - The Federal Reserve's actions significantly impact mortgage rates, as lenders use the yield on 10-year Treasuries to price home loans [5] - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated potential rate cuts due to concerns over weaker job gains [6] - Revised jobs data revealed a weaker U.S. job market, with an increase in unemployment benefit claims suggesting rising layoffs [7] Historical Context - A similar decline in mortgage rates occurred before the Fed's rate cut in September last year, where the 30-year mortgage rate fell to a two-year low of 6.08% before rising above 7% by mid-January [4]

The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.9% in the 12 months through August, as per expectations. In contrast, the figure rose 2.7% in July. CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month (MoM) in August, against the expected 0.3%. In August, Core CPI rose 3.1% YoY as per expectations. The figure rose 0.3% MoM as expected. The CPI data is the most common metric to measure inflation. CPI inflation is now at its highest level since January 2025, which means that Americans are really feeling the pinch. A Mobil gas sta ...