1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The entry of secondary fattening has decreased, and the increase in terminal demand is limited. The support for price decline has weakened. As the slaughter rhythm changes, the supply - demand pattern will remain loose, restricting price movements. The futures main contract 2601 has reduced positions and risen due to short - covering, but the fundamentals are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to close short positions on dips [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - The closing price of the futures main contract for live pigs is 11,945 yuan/ton, up 260 yuan; the main contract position is 136,383 lots, down 9,914 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 90 lots, down 95 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 31,257 lots, up 2,525 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Price - The live pig price in Henan Zhumadian is 11,800 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; in Jilin Siping is 11,900 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; in Guangdong Yunfu is 12,500 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; the main live pig basis is - 145 yuan/ton, down 460 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The live pig inventory is 436.8 million heads, up 12.33 million heads; the inventory of breeding sows is 40.35 million heads, down 30,000 heads [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The year - on - year CPI is - 0.3%, up 0.1 percentage points; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,050 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the spot price of corn is 2,234.31 yuan/ton, up 0.58 yuan; the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index is 893.14, up 4.72; the monthly output of feed is 31.287 million tons, up 2.015 million tons; the price of binary breeding sows is 1,515 yuan/head, down 15 yuan; the breeding profit of purchased piglets is - 179.72 yuan/head, up 109.35 yuan; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised live pigs is - 89.33 yuan/head, up 96.35 yuan; the monthly import volume of pork is 80,000 tons, unchanged; the average price of white - striped chickens in the main producing areas is 13.8 yuan/kg, down 0.3 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises is 35.84 million heads, up 2.34 million heads; the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 450.86 billion yuan, up 12.9 billion yuan [2] 3.6 Industry News - On November 5, 2025, the daily slaughter volume of key breeding enterprises nationwide was 280,543 heads, down 0.23% from the previous day. The slaughter rhythm of group farms slowed down at the beginning of the month and will gradually recover later. Although the November slaughter plan decreased month - on - month according to consulting agency data, there is still slaughter pressure. Currently, the attitude towards secondary fattening is cautious, and the number of entries has decreased [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a short - biased trading strategy [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - At the end of the month, supply pressure eases briefly, demand recovers, and second - fattening entry supports a small increase in the spot price, followed by a stable and volatile trend. However, after the price increase, second - fattening entry becomes cautious, terminal demand's carrying capacity is poor, market sentiment weakens, and the 2601 contract closes down 2.3% [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The closing price of the main futures contract for live pigs is 11,880 yuan/ton, down 305 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 135,813 lots, up 16,025 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 206 lots, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 31,311 lots, down 1,076 lots [2] - Spot: The live pig price in Henan Zhumadian is 12,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin Siping, it is 12,500 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; in Guangdong Yunfu, it is 13,100 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the main live pig basis is 720 yuan/ton, up 305 yuan [2] 2. Upstream Situation - Pig inventory is 42,4470,000 heads, up 7160,000 heads; the inventory of breeding sows is 4,0380,000 heads, down 40,000 heads; CPI year - on - year is - 0.3%, up 0.1 percentage points; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2,970 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of corn is 2,242.16 yuan/ton, down 0.59 yuan; the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index is 879.54, up 0.69; the monthly output of feed is 31,287,000 tons, up 2,015,000 tons; the price of binary breeding sows is 1,530 yuan/head, unchanged; the breeding profit of purchased piglets is - 289.07 yuan/head, up 86.22 yuan; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs is - 185.68 yuan/head, up 59.02 yuan; the monthly import volume of pork is 80,000 tons, unchanged; the average price of white - striped chicken in the main producing areas is 14.1 yuan/kg, down 0.2 yuan [2] 3. Downstream Situation - The slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises is 33,500,000 heads, up 1,840,000 heads; the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 450.86 billion yuan, up 12.9 billion yuan [2] 4. Industry News - On October 30, 2025, the daily national live pig出栏量 of key breeding enterprises was 284,450 heads, a 2.57% decrease from the previous day. At the supply end, the出栏 rhythm of large - scale farms slowed down at the end of the month and the beginning of the month, and the average出栏 weight decreased slightly, reducing supply pressure. In the second - fattening aspect, there was concentrated entry for supplementary stocking in the middle and late ten - day periods, supporting the spot market price to stop falling and rebound, but the enthusiasm for second - fattening entry cooled down as the price rose [2] 5. Key Points of Concern - There is no news today [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure eases at the end of the month as the group farms slow down their slaughter rhythm and the average slaughter weight decreases slightly. The secondary fattening entry supports the stabilization of the spot market price, but its sustainability needs to be observed. The terminal demand increases with the drop in temperature, and some slaughter enterprises actively store, leading to a continuous marginal improvement in demand. Overall, the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term. However, the price rebound restricts the sustainability of secondary fattening, and the postponed supply and the expected supply pressure in the fourth quarter limit the medium - term upside space. Technically, the LH2601 contract opened low and closed lower, down 1.3%, with pressure at the previous gap and weak rebound [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for live pigs is 12,160 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan; the main contract position is 117,248 lots, up 7,747 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 206 lots, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 30,906 lots, up 694 lots [2] 2. Spot Market - The live pig prices in Henan Zhumadian, Jilin Siping, and Guangdong Yunfu are 12,600 yuan/ton, 12,600 yuan/ton, and 12,300 yuan/ton respectively, up 300 yuan/ton, 200 yuan/ton, and 200 yuan/ton; the main basis of live pigs is 440 yuan/ton, up 470 yuan/ton [2] 3. Upstream Situation - The live pig inventory is 42,4470,000 heads, up 7160,000 heads; the inventory of breeding sows is 4,0380,000 heads, down 40,000 heads; CPI year - on - year is - 0.3%, up 0.1 percentage points; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2,970 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the spot price of corn is 2,240.88 yuan/ton, down 1.67 yuan/ton; the DCE pig feed cost index is 881.43, up 6.95; the monthly output of feed is 31,287,000 tons, up 2,015,000 tons; the price of binary breeding sows is 1,530 yuan/head, unchanged; the breeding profit of purchased piglets is - 289.07 yuan/head, up 86.22 yuan/head; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs is - 185.68 yuan/head, up 59.02 yuan/head; the monthly import volume of pork is 80,000 tons, unchanged; the average price of white - striped chicken in the main producing areas is 14.1 yuan/kg, down 0.2 yuan/kg [2] 4. Downstream Situation - The monthly slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises is 33,500,000 heads, up 1,840,000 heads; the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 450.86 billion yuan, up 12.9 billion yuan [2] 5. Industry News - On October 28, the daily slaughter volume of live pigs in key provincial sample slaughtering enterprises was 147,413 heads, up 0.15% from the previous day. The supply pressure eases as the group farms slow down their slaughter rhythm at the end of the month and the average slaughter weight decreases slightly. The secondary fattening entry supports the spot market price, but its sustainability needs to be observed. The terminal demand increases with the drop in temperature, and some slaughter enterprises actively store, leading to a continuous marginal improvement in demand [2]

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - At the end of the month, supply slows down, demand picks up, and with the entry of secondary fattening, prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. However, price rebounds restrict the sustainability of secondary fattening, and secondary fattening will delay supply. Coupled with the expected supply pressure in the fourth quarter, the upside space in the medium term is limited [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for live pigs is 12,330 yuan/ton, up 155 yuan; the position of the main contract is 109,501 lots, down 2,896 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 206 lots, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is -31,600 lots, down 1,757 lots [2] Spot Market - The live pig prices in Henan Zhumadian, Jilin Siping, and Guangdong Yunfu are 12,300 yuan/ton, 12,400 yuan/ton, and 12,100 yuan/ton respectively, all up 400 yuan/ton; the main basis of live pigs is -30 yuan/ton, up 245 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The live pig inventory is 42,4470,000 heads, up 7160,000 heads; the inventory of breeding sows is 4,0380,000 heads, down 40,000 heads [2] Industry Situation - The year-on-year CPI is -0.3%, up 0.1 percentage points; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2,960 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of corn is 2,242.55 yuan/ton, down 6.08 yuan; the DCE pig feed cost index is 874.48, down 6.26; the monthly output of feed is 31,287,000 tons, up 2,015,000 tons; the price of binary breeding sows is 1,530 yuan/head, unchanged; the breeding profit of purchased piglets is -289.07 yuan/head, up 86.22 yuan; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised live pigs is -185.68 yuan/head, up 59.02 yuan; the monthly import volume of pork is 80,000 tons, unchanged; the average price of white - striped chicken in the main producing areas is 14.1 yuan/kg, down 0.2 yuan/kg [2] Downstream Situation - The slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises is 33,500,000 heads, up 1,840,000 heads; the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 450.86 billion yuan, up 1.29 billion yuan [2] Industry News - On October 27, the daily slaughter volume of live pigs in key provincial sample slaughtering enterprises was 147,197 heads, a month - on - month decrease of 0.41%. At the supply end, the supply of large - scale farms may slow down at the end of the month, and the average slaughter weight has decreased, reducing the supply pressure. In the second - fattening aspect, the concentrated entry of second - fattening for replenishment supports the stabilization of the spot market price, but the sustainability of entry needs to be observed. At the demand end, with the continuous decline in temperature, terminal demand has increased, and some slaughtering enterprises have actively carried out warehousing operations, resulting in a continuous marginal improvement in demand [2] Technical Analysis - The live pig 2601 contract opened higher and closed up 1.69%, testing the pressure of the previous gap [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Policy interventions are frequent, and the far - month supply of live pigs may be affected. Long - term strategic bullishness is possible, but the short - to - medium term is still based on fundamentals. The policy bottom has emerged, but the market bottom may require a production cycle to form. Currently, the fundamental situation is one of oversupply, but with the arrival of the peak season, demand is expected to improve, and there may be a structural shortage of large pigs, supporting peak - season prices [2]. - The decline momentum of the market is slowing, and there is a possibility of a staged rebound. The 11000 - 13500 range may be the bottom - rebound grinding range [10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Policy end: The government has launched a pig reserve purchase policy at a pig - grain ratio of 6:1, indicating the determination for price control, and the policy bottom has emerged [2]. - Fundamental situation: Currently, supply exceeds demand. Due to policy expectations, epidemics in some provinces, and transportation issues, there was concentrated slaughter during the double festivals, leading to a rapid decline in short - term pig prices [2]. - Near - term trading logic: High pig inventory, heavy slaughter pressure on pig enterprises, concentrated slaughter by second - fattening farms during the peak season, and the entry of speculative second - fattening due to low pig prices [5]. - Long - term trading logic: Policy - led expectations of reducing the number of reproductive sows, weakening breeding profits, and the peak - season sales expectation from the fourth quarter to the Spring Festival [8]. 3.1.2 Speculative Strategy Recommendations - Trend judgment: The decline momentum is slowing, and there may be a staged rebound [10]. - Price range: The low point of the main contract last week may be a staged low, and there may be a second bottom - testing near contract expiration. The 11000 - 13500 range may be the bottom - rebound grinding range [10]. - Basis, calendar spread, and hedging arbitrage strategies: Unwind previous short positions, wait and see, or lightly bet on the peak - season rebound. The basis is expected to strengthen during the peak season, and consider staging calendar spread positive spreads [11][15]. 3.1.3 Industry Customer Strategy Recommendations - Inventory management: For high - inventory enterprises, short live - pig futures, sell call options, or buy out - of - the - money put options to manage risks [12]. - Procurement management: For enterprises with future procurement plans, buy live - pig forward contracts, sell put options, or buy out - of - the - money call options to manage risks [12]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Market Information 3.2.1 This Week's Main Information - Positive information: Increased willingness of second - fattening to enter the market; the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs predicts that pig and pork prices may stop falling and rebound in the second half of the fourth quarter; the pig price in mid - October may be the annual low; a hearing on the anti - dumping case of pork and pig by - products will be held [14][16]. - Negative information: Continuous decline in the slaughter quotes of large enterprises; significant year - on - year increase in the number of live - pig slaughter by listed companies in September [16]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Main Information Pay attention to the slaughter quotes of large enterprises [16]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation This week, the main live - pig contract showed a staged stabilization trend. It opened at 11800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and closed at 12175 yuan/ton at the weekend, rising 375 points or 4.33%. The open interest increased by 5425 contracts to 112,000 contracts, indicating intensified long - short competition [16]. 3.3.2 Basis and Calendar Spread Structure Analysis - Calendar spread structure: The overall live - pig calendar spread shows a contango structure. Although the 1 - 3 month spread shows a back structure, it is a normal seasonal pattern. The near - end price is under pressure due to epidemics and transportation difficulties [18]. - Basis structure: Reduced live - pig slaughter, stable and rebounding spot prices, and a possible structural shortage of large pigs drive the basis to strengthen [22]. 3.4 Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis - The current live - pig breeding profit is narrowing, with losses in the profit of purchasing piglets and negative average profit per head for self - breeding and self - raising this week. The profit of selling piglets has also turned negative. The profit of second - fattening is attractive due to the high seasonal spread between standard and fat pigs. The slaughter profit is improving, and the terminal consumption may pick up during the peak season [25]. 3.5 Chapter 5: This Week's Supply - Demand Situation 3.5.1 Supply - Side Situation - Reproductive sows: In August, the number of reproductive sows was 40.38 million, a decrease of 40,000 from July. The data from Steel Union shows a downward trend, and the culling of sows has increased [29]. - Live pigs: The inventory of large - scale enterprises in the first half of the year was at a high level in the past three years, and the average slaughter weight remained stable this week [31]. - Piglets: Piglet prices are relatively low compared to last year, showing a seasonal decline, and the profit margin continues to decline [33]. - Second - fattening: The spread between standard and fat pigs has widened rapidly this week, and the utilization rate of second - fattening pens has decreased significantly [35]. - Feed: Corn prices are fluctuating downward, while soybean meal prices remain stable [37]. 3.5.2 Demand - Side Situation - Slaughter: Slaughter enterprises had high slaughter volumes in the first half of the year. Current slaughter profits have turned positive, cold - storage inventory is gradually increasing, and there are signs of inventory preparation. This week, slaughter profits slightly declined, and the average post - slaughter weight slowly increased [42]. - Terminal consumption: Terminal consumption remains weak. The fresh - meat sales rate of slaughter enterprises is at the lowest level in the past five years seasonally, and the spread between white - haired and fresh - meat prices is the worst in the same period [44]. 3.5.3 Import - Export Situation - Import: The import volume is at the lowest level in the same period in the past five years [46]. - Export: The export volume is at the highest level in the same period in the past five years [51]. 3.5.4 Cost - Profit Situation - Breeding profit: The breeding profit is narrowing, with losses in the profit of purchasing piglets and negative average profit per head for self - breeding and self - raising [25]. - Cost: Corn prices are fluctuating downward, and soybean meal prices are stable. The cost of second - fattening is also presented in the report [37][55].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Second - round fattening provides short - term support for prices, but on Thursday, the increase in spot prices slowed, and there were signs of cooling in second - round fattening replenishment. Coupled with the continuous supply pressure of live pigs, the rebound space is limited. It is recommended to wait for a rebound to short. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - The closing price of the futures main contract for live pigs is 12,200 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the main contract position is 107,371 lots, up 3,801 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 111 lots, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 30,896 lots, up 713 lots. [2] 3.2 Spot Price - The live pig price in Henan Zhumadian is 11,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin Siping, it is 12,200 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; in Guangdong Yunfu, it is 11,700 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan. The main live pig basis is - 300 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The live pig inventory is 42,4470,000 heads, up 7160,000 heads; the inventory of breeding sows is 4,0380,000 heads, down 40,000 heads. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The year - on - year CPI is - 0.3%, up 0.1 percentage points; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2,940 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the spot price of corn is 2,253.33 yuan/ton, down 4.91 yuan; the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index is 883.23, up 6.64. The monthly output of feed is 29,272,000 tons, up 999,000 tons; the price of binary breeding sows is 1,530 yuan/head, unchanged. The breeding profit of purchased piglets is - 375.29 yuan/head, down 74.25 yuan; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised live pigs is - 244.7 yuan/head, down 92.55 yuan. The monthly import volume of pork is 80,000 tons, down 10,000 tons; the average price of white - strip chickens in the main production areas is 14.3 yuan/kg, down 0.07 yuan. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises is 33,500,000 heads, up 1,840,000 heads; the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 449.57 billion yuan, down 8.4 billion yuan. [2] 3.6 Industry News - On October 23, 2025, the daily national live pig slaughter volume of key breeding enterprises was 310,070 heads, a 3.38% decrease from the previous day. In terms of supply, considering the data of newborn piglets and breeding sows, the theoretical slaughter pressure in the near - term remains. In terms of second - round fattening, due to the widening price difference between fat and standard pigs, there is concentrated replenishment, especially in the northern regions, which supports the stabilization and small increase of spot market prices, but the sustainability of entry needs to be observed. [2]

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 持续性有待观察，加上生猪供应压力不减，限制反弹空间。操作上建议等待反弹抛空机会。 研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 生猪产业日报 2025-10-22 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 12220 | -15 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 103570 | 408 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of live pigs is under pressure due to theoretical near - month出栏 pressure from newborn piglets and the inventory of breeding sows, along with large - scale farms' active sales to meet their targets. The second - fattening activity has supported the spot market price, especially in the north, but its sustainability needs to be observed. The terminal demand is expected to improve with the drop in temperature, but currently, the sales of pork carcasses are slow and demand is below expectations. The live pig futures main contract 2601 has rebounded, but the rebound space is limited due to the uncertain second - fattening and continuous supply pressure. It is recommended to sell on rebounds [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - The closing price of the main futures contract for live pigs is 12,235 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 103,162 lots, up 607 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 111 lots, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 29,936 lots, down 1,420 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Price - The live pig price in Henan Zhumadian is 11,700 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan; in Jilin Siping is 11,800 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; in Guangdong Yunfu is 11,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The main live pig basis is - 535 yuan/ton, up 320 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The live pig inventory is 42,4470,000 heads, up 7160,000 heads; the inventory of breeding sows is 4,0380,000 heads, down 40,000 heads. The CPI's year - on - year change is - 0.3%, up 0.1 percentage points. The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2,900 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of corn is 2,259.41 yuan/ton, down 3.34 yuan. The Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index is 880.17, up 1.25. The monthly output of feed is 29,272,000 tons, up 999,000 tons. The price of binary breeding sows is 1,530 yuan/head, unchanged. The breeding profit of purchased piglets is - 375.29 yuan/head, down 74.25 yuan; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised live pigs is - 244.7 yuan/head, down 92.55 yuan. The monthly import volume of pork is 80,000 tons, down 10,000 tons. The average price of white - striped chickens in the main production areas is 14.3 yuan/kg, down 0.07 yuan [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises is 33,500,000 heads, up 1,840,000 heads. The monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 449.57 billion yuan, down 8.4 billion yuan [2] 3.5 Industry News - On October 21, 2025, the daily national live pig出栏 volume of key breeding enterprises was 326,524 heads, up 4.43% from the previous day [2]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The supply side has near - term出栏 pressure due to factors like new - born piglets, sow inventory, and postponed large - scale farm出栏 plans. The demand side experiences a post - festival decline, with reduced terminal procurement and slaughterhouse operations. Although demand will gradually improve as the temperature drops, the current increase is limited. The market has seen some price support from breeding enterprises' price - holding sentiment and second - round fattening, but the oversupply situation is hard to reverse in the short term, so the market is expected to fluctuate weakly [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for live pigs is 11,400 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the position volume is 44,805 hands, down 3,846 hands. The number of warehouse receipts is 111 hands, up 21 hands, and the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 30,361 hands, up 1,006 hands [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Spot prices in different regions have increased: Henan Zhumadian is 11,200 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; Jilin Siping is 11,400 yuan/ton, up 400 yuan; Guangdong Yunfu is 11,300 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan. The main basis of live pigs is - 200 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Pig inventory is 42,4470,000 heads, up 7160,000 heads; the inventory of breeding sows is 4,0380,000 heads, down 40,000 heads [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - CPI year - on - year is - 0.3%, up 0.1 percentage points. The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2,930 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of corn is 2,273.33 yuan/ton, down 4.71 yuan. The DCE pig feed cost index is 873, up 5.65. The monthly output of feed is 29,272,000 tons, up 999,000 tons. The price of binary breeding sows is 1,530 yuan/head, down 3 yuan. The breeding profit of purchased piglets is - 301.04 yuan/head, down 64.47 yuan; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs is - 152.15 yuan/head, down 78.04 yuan. The monthly import volume of pork is 80,000 tons, down 10,000 tons. The average price of white - striped chickens in the main production areas is 14.37 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises is 3,3500,000 heads, up 1840,000 heads. The monthly value of catering revenue in total retail sales of consumer goods is 449.57 billion yuan, down 8.4 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On October 14, 2025, the daily national pig出栏 volume of key breeding enterprises was 327,610 heads, up 0.93% from the previous day [2].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The supply - side has significant near - term出栏 pressure due to new - born piglets, the number of breeding sows, and postponed 出栏 plans of large - scale farms, along with active 出栏 by retail farmers due to losses and pessimism. The demand - side sees a post - festival decline in demand, reduced terminal purchasing willingness, and lower slaughterhouse operations. Although the price decline has led to some farmers' price - holding sentiment and some secondary fattening entries, temporarily stabilizing the spot price and boosting the 2511 contract of live pigs to rise by 2%, the overall supply - demand pattern remains loose, limiting the upside of live pig prices, and the market is expected to be weak and volatile in the future [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main live pig futures contract was 11,450 yuan/ton, up 325 yuan; the main contract's open interest was 48,651 lots, down 8,606 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 90 lots, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 31,367 lots, up 2,239 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The live pig prices in Henan Zhumadian and Guangdong Yunfu were 11,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Jilin Siping was 11,000 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; the main live pig basis was - 350 yuan/ton, down 325 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The live pig inventory was 42,4470,000 heads, up 7160,000 heads; the inventory of breeding sows was 4,0380,000 heads, down 40,000 heads [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The year - on - year CPI was - 0.4%, down 0.4 percentage points; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 2,930 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of corn was 2,278.04 yuan/ton, down 16.27 yuan; the Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index was 867.35, down 1.25; the monthly feed output was 29,272,000 tons, up 999,000 tons; the price of binary breeding sows was 1,530 yuan/head, down 3 yuan; the breeding profit from purchasing piglets was - 301.04 yuan/head, down 64.47 yuan; the breeding profit from self - breeding and self - raising was - 152.15 yuan/head, down 78.04 yuan; the monthly pork import volume was 80,000 tons, down 10,000 tons; the average price of white - striped chickens in the main production areas was 14.37 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises was 33,500,000 heads, up 1,840,000 heads; the monthly catering revenue in total social retail sales was 449.57 billion yuan, down 8.4 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On October 14, 2025, the daily 出栏 volume of key live pig breeding enterprises nationwide was 327,610 heads, up 2.42% from the previous day [2].