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瑞达期货生猪产业日报-20260401
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-04-01 09:04
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The market sentiment is currently low, and the enthusiasm for secondary fattening is weak. On the demand side, the slaughtering enterprise's operating rate is continuously recovering, and the frozen product storage capacity has increased significantly. Although there was a short - term boost in demand before the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, it is difficult to change the terminal consumption trend, and the off - season demand limits the room for future slaughter recovery. Overall, the short - term price - support sentiment has temporarily stopped the decline of the spot price, but the pattern of loose supply and demand continues, and it is expected that the hog price will mainly show a weak and volatile trend. Technically, during the contract - changing period, the current main 2605 contract continued to bottom out, closing down 2.88% with a minimum of 9605 yuan/ton, and the 2607 contract fell 2.75%, showing weak price performance. Attention should be paid to the impact of state reserves, secondary fattening, epidemics, and capital fluctuations on the market [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Disk - The closing price of the main hog futures contract is 9610 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 160 yuan/ton; the main contract's open interest is 187,212 lots, an increase of 52 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 525 lots, an increase of 525 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 60,942 lots, an increase of 2,820 lots [3] Spot Price - The hog price in Zhumadian, Henan is 9500 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Siping, Jilin it is 9300 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Yunfu, Guangdong it is 10000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton; the main hog basis is - 110 yuan/ton, an increase of 160 yuan/ton [3] Upstream Situation - The national hog inventory is 42,9670,000 heads, a decrease of 7130,000 heads; the national breeding sow inventory is 3,9610,000 heads, a decrease of 290,000 heads [3] Industry Situation - The year - on - year CPI is 1.3%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points; the average spot price of soybean meal is 3262 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26.86 yuan/ton; the average spot price of corn is 2448.14 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.66 yuan/ton; the Dalian Commodity Exchange's hog feed cost index is 939.52, a decrease of 3.96; the monthly output of feed is 28.73 million tons, a decrease of 340,000 tons; the price of binary breeding sows is 1424 yuan/head, unchanged; the breeding profit of purchased piglets is - 189.87 yuan/head, a decrease of 48.39 yuan/head; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised hogs is - 344.24 yuan/head, a decrease of 46.56 yuan/head; the monthly import volume of pork is 50,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons; the average price of white - striped chicken in the main production areas is 13.7 yuan/kg, unchanged [3] Downstream Situation - The cumulative catering revenue in February is 102.64 billion yuan, an increase of 45.26 billion yuan; the number of hogs slaughtered by national designated slaughtering enterprises is 31.77 million heads, a decrease of 12.27 million heads [3] Industry News - According to the sample data of key breeding enterprises from Shanghai Ganglian, on April 1, 2026, the daily hog slaughter volume of key breeding enterprises nationwide was 293,405 heads, an increase of 1.11% from the previous day. According to Mysteel data, the planned hog slaughter volume of breeding enterprises in key provinces in April 2026 was 14.4126 million heads, a 4.24% increase compared with the actual slaughter volume in March [3]
瑞达期货生猪产业日报-20260331
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-03-31 09:57
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of the pig industry is abundant, the market sentiment is low, and the enthusiasm for secondary fattening entry is weak. Although the demand has a short - term boost before the Tomb - Sweeping Festival, it is still in the off - season, which restricts the subsequent slaughter recovery space. The price of live pigs is expected to show a weak and volatile trend. The current main 2605 contract has reduced positions and fallen, and the far - month 2607 contract has fallen more than 3%, continuing the downward trend. Attention should be paid to the impact of state reserves, secondary fattening, and capital fluctuations on the market [3] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Disk - The closing price of the main futures contract for live pigs is 9770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 235 yuan; the main contract position is 187160 lots, a decrease of 2159 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 0 lots, a decrease of 441 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions is - 63762 lots, an increase of 2362 lots [3] 2. Spot Price - The spot price of live pigs in Henan Zhumadian is 9500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; in Jilin Siping is 9300 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; in Guangdong Yunfu is 10200 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan. The main basis of live pigs is - 270 yuan/ton, an increase of 135 yuan [3] 3. Upstream Situation - The national live pig inventory is 429670,000 heads, a decrease of 7130,000 heads; the national breeding sow inventory is 39610,000 heads, a decrease of 290,000 heads [3] 4. Industry Situation - The year - on - year CPI is 1.3%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points; the average spot price of soybean meal is 3288.86 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.43 yuan; the average spot price of corn is 2448.8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.06 yuan; the DCE pig feed cost index is 943.48, a decrease of 0.23; the monthly output of feed is 28730,000 tons, a decrease of 340,000 tons; the price of binary breeding sows is 1424 yuan/head, unchanged; the breeding profit of purchased piglets is - 189.87 yuan/head, a decrease of 48.39 yuan; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised live pigs is - 344.24 yuan/head, a decrease of 46.56 yuan; the monthly import volume of pork is 50000 tons, a decrease of 20000 tons; the average price of white - striped chickens in the main producing areas is 13.7 yuan/kg, unchanged [3] 5. Downstream Situation - The cumulative catering revenue in February is 102.64 billion yuan, an increase of 45.26 billion yuan; the slaughter volume of national designated live pig slaughtering enterprises is 31.77 million heads, a decrease of 12.27 million heads [3] 6. Industry News - On March 31, the daily slaughter volume of key provincial sample slaughtering enterprises was 140514 heads, a month - on - month increase of 1.71%. The overall breeding side actively sold, and the supply was abundant. The market sentiment was low, and the enthusiasm for secondary fattening entry was weak. The slaughtering enterprise's operating rate continued to recover, and the frozen product storage capacity increased significantly [3]
瑞达期货生猪产业日报-20260326
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-03-26 09:10
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of live pigs is sufficient, while the demand lacks positive factors, resulting in a clear pattern of strong supply and weak demand. The spot price of live pigs is running weakly. The main 2605 contract fell 1.94% and continued to bottom out, reaching a minimum of 9830 yuan/ton during the session. Attention should be paid to state purchases, secondary fattening, and capital flows [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for live pigs was 9835 yuan/ton, a decrease of 145 yuan; the position volume of the main contract was 219,402 lots, an increase of 5,615 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 1,009 lots, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was -65,829 lots, an increase of 1,002 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The live pig price in Zhumadian, Henan was 9,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; in Siping, Jilin was 9,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan; in Yunfu, Guangdong was 10,100 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the main live pig contract was -235 yuan/ton, an increase of 45 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national live pig inventory was 429.67 million heads, a decrease of 7.13 million heads; the national breeding sow inventory was 39.61 million heads, a decrease of 290,000 heads [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The year-on-year increase of CPI was 1.3%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3,280 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of corn was 2,452.55 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.1 yuan; the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 956.82, an increase of 5.11; the monthly output of feed was 30.086 million tons, an increase of 307,000 tons; the price of binary breeding sows was 1,424 yuan/head, unchanged; the breeding profit of purchased piglets was -141.48 yuan/head, a decrease of 23.3 yuan; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised live pigs was -297.68 yuan/head, a decrease of 14.53 yuan; the monthly import volume of pork was 50,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons; the average price of white - striped chickens in the main producing areas was 13.7 yuan/kg, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises was 31.77 million heads, a decrease of 12.27 million heads; the cumulative catering revenue in February was 1.0264 trillion yuan, an increase of 452.6 billion yuan [2] 3.6 Industry News - According to Mysteel data, on March 26, the daily slaughter volume of live pigs by sample slaughtering enterprises in key provinces was 138,168 heads, a month - on - month increase of 1.34%. The farming end is slaughtering normally, and the slaughter of some large pigs has increased, resulting in supply pressure. Attention should be paid to whether large - scale farms will reduce the slaughter volume at the end of the month to briefly relieve the supply pressure [2]
生猪产业日报-20260325
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-03-25 09:09
Report Date - The report is dated March 25, 2026 [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The supply of live pigs is sufficient, while the demand lacks positive factors, and the fundamentals are bearish. The live pig spot market is weakly operating. On the futures market, the main 2605 contract fell 0.55%, continuing the downward trend. Attention should be paid to the impact of capital flow on the market [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for live pigs was 9,980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan; the open interest of the main contract was 213,787 lots, an increase of 1,529 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 1,009 lots, a decrease of 23 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was -66,831 lots, a decrease of 4,773 lots [3] Spot Market - The live pig price in Zhumadian, Henan was 9,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan; in Siping, Jilin was 9,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan; in Yunfu, Guangdong was 10,100 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the live pig main contract was -280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The national live pig inventory was 42,9670,000 heads, a decrease of 7130,000 heads; the national breeding sow inventory was 3,9610,000 heads, a decrease of 290,000 heads. The CPI year-on-year was 1.3%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points. The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3,280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; the spot price of corn was 2,452.65 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.19 yuan; the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 951.71, an increase of 95.05. The monthly output of feed was 30,086,000 tons, an increase of 307,000 tons. The price of binary breeding sows was 1,424 yuan/head, unchanged. The breeding profit of purchased piglets was -141.48 yuan/head, a decrease of 23.3 yuan; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised live pigs was -297.68 yuan/head, a decrease of 14.53 yuan. The monthly import volume of pork was 50,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons; the average price of white - striped chickens in the main producing areas was 13.7 yuan/kg, unchanged [3] Downstream Situation - The slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises was 3,1770,000 heads, a decrease of 1,2270,000 heads. The cumulative catering revenue in February was 102.64 billion yuan, an increase of 45.26 billion yuan [3] Industry News - According to Shanghai Ganglian's sample data of key breeding enterprises, on March 25, 2026, the daily national live pig sales volume of key breeding enterprises was 298,878 heads, an increase of 0.31% from the previous day. The breeding end is in normal sales mode, with an increase in the sales of some large pigs, resulting in supply pressure. Attention should be paid to whether large - scale farms will reduce sales at the end of the month to temporarily relieve the supply pressure [3]
瑞达期货生猪产业日报-20260323
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-03-23 09:31
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The breeding side is slaughtering pigs normally, with an increase in the slaughter of some large pigs, leading to supply pressure. Attention should be paid to whether large-scale farms will reduce the supply at the end of the month to briefly relieve the supply pressure [2]. - The slaughtering enterprises' operating rate is continuously rising but has not returned to the pre - holiday level, which is within expectations. Terminal consumption is sluggish, the sales speed is slow, and slaughtering enterprises are forced to store meat in cold storage, accelerating the increase in frozen product storage capacity [2]. - Overall, supply is high while demand lacks positive factors, and the fundamentals are bearish [2]. - The spot price of live pigs has fallen below 10 yuan/kg and will continue to bottom out. On the futures market, the main 2605 contract closed down 3.53%, breaking through the 10,000 - yuan mark, and the market is accelerating its decline. Attention should be paid to the impact of capital flows on the market [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for live pigs is 9,980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 240 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 207,256 lots, an increase of 3,587 lots [2]. - The number of warehouse receipts for live pigs is 1,051 lots, with no change; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 62,686 lots, an increase of 1,805 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Price - The live pig price in Zhumadian, Henan is 9,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan; in Siping, Jilin it is 9,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan; in Yunfu, Guangdong it is 10,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan [2]. - The basis of the main live pig contract is - 180 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national live pig inventory is 42,9670,000 heads, a decrease of 7130,000 heads; the national inventory of breeding sows is 3,9610,000 heads, a decrease of 290,000 heads [2]. - The year - on - year CPI is 1.3%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,320 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan [2]. - The spot price of corn is 2,453.04 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.57 yuan; the Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index is 970.05, an increase of 6.33 [2]. - The monthly output of feed is 30,086,000 tons, an increase of 307,000 tons; the price of binary breeding sows is 1,424 yuan/head, a decrease of 6 yuan [2]. - The breeding profit from purchasing piglets is - 141.48 yuan/head, a decrease of 23.3 yuan; the breeding profit from self - breeding and self - raising is - 297.68 yuan/head, a decrease of 14.53 yuan [2]. - The monthly import volume of pork is 50,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons; the average price of white - striped chickens in the main production areas is 13.7 yuan/kg, with no change [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises is 3,1770,000 heads, a decrease of 1,2270,000 heads; the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 573.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 31.9 billion yuan [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of March 22, according to Mysteel data, the completion rate of the planned live pig slaughter of key provincial breeding enterprises is 69.29%, and the overall progress is slightly slow [2].
瑞达期货生猪产业日报-20260318
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-03-18 10:07
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report Core View - The market situation of oversupply in the pig industry continues, which exerts pressure on pig prices to run weakly. The futures price of the pig 2605 contract fell 2.29% today, and the market sentiment is low, continuing to decline to find support [3] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Disk - The closing price of the main futures contract for live pigs was 10,475 yuan/ton, a decrease of 220 yuan; the position of the main contract was 204,678 lots, an increase of 2,280 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 1,052 lots, a decrease of 80 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was -62,230 lots, an increase of 2,665 lots [3] Spot Price - The spot price of live pigs in Henan Zhumadian was 10,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9,100 yuan; in Jilin Siping, it was 9,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangdong Yunfu, it was 10,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the main live pig contract was -9,475 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8,880 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The national live pig inventory was 429.67 million heads, a decrease of 7.13 million heads; the national breeding sow inventory was 39.61 million heads, a decrease of 0.29 million heads [3] Industry Situation - The year-on-year increase in CPI was 1.3%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3,330 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan; the spot price of corn was 2,455.49 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.14 yuan; the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 962.85, a decrease of 2.15; the monthly output of feed was 30.086 million tons, an increase of 307,000 tons; the price of binary breeding sows was 1,424 yuan/head, a decrease of 6 yuan; the breeding profit of purchased piglets was -118.18 yuan/head, a decrease of 59.29 yuan; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised live pigs was -283.15 yuan/head, a decrease of 45.17 yuan; the monthly import volume of pork was 60,000 tons, unchanged; the average price of white - striped chickens in the main producing areas was 13.7 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.1 yuan [3] Downstream Situation - The slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises was 44.04 million heads, a decrease of 4.87 million heads; the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 573.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 31.9 billion yuan [3] Industry News - On March 18, 2026, the daily national live pig出栏 volume of key breeding enterprises was 291,666 heads, a decrease of 0.17% from the previous day. The supply in the near term is sufficient. The demand enters the off - season, and the terminal consumption is rigid. The slaughtering start - up rate may fluctuate slightly at the current level or even decrease slightly, with limited support for prices [3] Key Points of Attention - Pay continuous attention to the dynamics of the second - fattening entry and the impact of capital flow on prices [3]
瑞达期货生猪产业日报-20260310
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-03-10 09:56
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The market is characterized by strong supply and weak demand, and the pig price will mainly fluctuate weakly at a low level. The main 2605 contract on the futures market closed down 1.15% and is operating below the 20 - day moving average. Attention should be paid to the entry of second - fattening and capital flow [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - The closing price of the main futures contract for live pigs was 11,180 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the position volume of the main contract was 182,346 lots, up 2,323 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 1,150 lots, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 55,729 lots, down 1,782 lots [3] 3.2 Spot Price - The live pig price in Zhumadian, Henan was 10,300 yuan/ton, down 300 yuan; in Siping, Jilin was 9,800 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in Yunfu, Guangdong was 10,400 yuan/ton, unchanged. The main live pig basis was - 880 yuan/ton, down 280 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national live pig inventory was 42,9670,000 heads, down 7,130,000 heads; the national breeding sow inventory was 3,9610,000 heads, down 290,000 heads [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The year - on - year increase of CPI was 0.2%, down 0.6 percentage points; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3,200 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the spot price of corn was 2,440 yuan/ton, up 6.08 yuan; the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 957.11, down 6.02; the monthly output of feed was 30,086,000 tons, up 307,000 tons; the price of binary breeding sows was 1,430 yuan/head, up 1 yuan; the breeding profit of purchased piglets was - 58.89 yuan/head, down 79.72 yuan; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised live pigs was - 237.98 yuan/head, down 78.33 yuan; the monthly import volume of pork was 60,000 tons, unchanged; the average price of white - striped chickens in the main producing areas was 13.8 yuan/kg, unchanged [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises was 4,4040,000 heads, down 4,870,000 heads; the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 573.8 billion yuan, down 31.9 billion yuan [3] 3.6 Industry News - According to the sample data of key breeding enterprises from Shanghai Ganglian, on March 10, 2026, the daily national live pig slaughter volume of key breeding enterprises was 304,634 heads, an increase of 3.69% from the previous day [3]
瑞达期货生猪产业日报-20260309
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-03-09 09:05
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The market has strong supply and weak demand, and the hog price will mainly fluctuate weakly at a low level. Although some breeding ends have price - holding behavior due to price decline and profit loss, and the spot price shows signs of stabilization, it is expected that this situation cannot be maintained for a long time. The slaughter enterprise's operating rate continues to increase, but due to weak demand, the room for future increase is limited. On the futures market, the main 2605 contract once rose to 11,435 yuan/ton during the session, then fell back, closing with a long - upper - shadow K - line and a 0.54% increase, indicating weak price rebound [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Disk - The closing price of the futures main contract for hogs is 11,200 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 40; the main contract's open interest is 180,023 lots, with a week - on - week increase of 6,829; the number of warehouse receipts is 1,150 lots, with no change; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 53,947 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 2,604 [2]. Spot Price - The hog price in Zhumadian, Henan is 10,600 yuan/ton, with no change; in Siping, Jilin it is 9,900 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 100; in Yunfu, Guangdong it is 10,400 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 400. The main hog basis is - 600 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 40 [2]. Upstream Situation - The national hog inventory is 42,9670,000 heads, with a month - on - month decrease of 7130,000; the national inventory of breeding sows is 3,9610,000 heads, with a month - on - month decrease of 290,000 [2]. Industry Situation - The year - on - year increase of CPI is 0.2%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.6; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,070 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 30; the spot price of corn is 2,417.84 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 4.11; the Dalian Commodity Exchange's hog feed cost index is 963.13, with a week - on - week increase of 7.51; the monthly output of feed is 30,086,000 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 307,000; the price of binary breeding sows is 1,430 yuan/head, with a week - on - week increase of 1; the breeding profit of purchased piglets is - 58.89 yuan/head, with a week - on - week decrease of 79.72; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised hogs is - 237.98 yuan/head, with a week - on - week decrease of 78.33; the monthly import volume of pork is 60,000 tons, with no change; the average price of white - striped chickens in the main production areas is 13.8 yuan/kg, with no change [2]. Downstream Situation - The slaughter volume of designated hog slaughtering enterprises is 4,4040,000 heads, with a month - on - month decrease of 4870,000; the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 573.8 billion yuan, with a month - on - month decrease of 31.9 billion yuan [2]. Industry News - Mysteel data shows that on March 9, the daily slaughter volume of hogs by sample slaughtering enterprises in key provinces was 118,817 heads, with a week - on - week increase of 1.87%. Combining sow production capacity and the number of newborn piglets, it is speculated that the supply pressure in the near - term remains, and according to information from information agencies, the planned slaughter volume in March will increase month - on - month [2]. Key Points of Attention - Pay attention to the entry of second - fattening and the flow of funds [2].
瑞达期货生猪产业日报-20260305
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-03-05 09:03
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The supply pressure in the near - term remains high based on sow production capacity and the number of newborn piglets. Although the slaughter volume has rebounded from the holiday low, consumption has entered the traditional off - season with the temperature rising, and it is difficult to return to the pre - holiday high. The short - term spot price of live pigs has stopped falling and stabilized due to farmers' price - holding and increased inquiries for secondary fattening, but the overall price is in a weak and volatile state with a loose supply - demand pattern. The main 2605 contract on the futures market closed down 0.18% with a narrowing decline, testing the support at the 11,000 mark. Attention should be paid to secondary fattening and slaughter conditions [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - The closing price of the main futures contract for live pigs was 11,140 yuan/ton, with a 10 - unit change. The main contract position was 168,227 lots, a decrease of 1,382 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 1,150 lots with no change. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 49,010 lots, a decrease of 544 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Price - The live pig price in Henan Zhumadian was 10,700 yuan/ton with no change, in Jilin Siping was 9,800 yuan/ton with no change, and in Guangdong Yunfu was 11,200 yuan/ton with no change. The main live pig basis was - 440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national live pig inventory was 42,9670,000 heads, a decrease of 7130,000 heads. The national breeding sow inventory was 3,9610,000 heads, a decrease of 290,000 heads [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The year - on - year CPI was 0.2%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points. The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3,040 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton. The corn spot price was 2,413.73 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.59 yuan/ton. The Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 946.75, an increase of 2.68. The monthly feed output was 30,086,000 tons, an increase of 307,000 tons. The price of binary breeding sows was 1,429 yuan/head with no change. The breeding profit for purchased piglets was 20.83 yuan/head, a decrease of 32.27 yuan/head. The breeding profit for self - bred and self - raised live pigs was - 159.65 yuan/head, a decrease of 61.33 yuan/head. The monthly pork import volume was 60,000 tons with no change. The average price of white - striped chickens in the main producing areas was 13.8 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.2 yuan/kg [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises was 4,4040,000 heads, a decrease of 4870,000 heads. The monthly catering revenue in social consumer goods retail sales was 573.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 31.9 billion yuan [2] 3.6 Industry News - According to the sample data of key breeding enterprises from Shanghai Ganglian, on March 5, 2026, the daily live pig出栏量 of key breeding enterprises nationwide was 297,746 heads, an increase of 5.41% compared with the previous day [2]
瑞达期货生猪产业日报-20260304
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-03-04 11:05
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market has a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, showing a loose situation. The pig price is under pressure, but the impact of the second - fattening entry on supply and price needs special attention. The main 2605 contract on the futures market closed down 0.31%, with a minimum of 11,105 yuan/ton, continuing the downward trend [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Disk - The closing price of the main futures contract for live pigs was 11,130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; the main contract position was 169,609 lots, an increase of 4,945 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 1,150 lots, a decrease of 6 lots; the net buying volume of the top 20 futures positions was - 48,466 lots, a decrease of 2,031 lots [3] Spot Price - The live pig price in Zhumadian, Henan was 10,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Siping, Jilin was 9,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Yunfu, Guangdong was 11,200 yuan/ton, unchanged. The main live pig basis was - 430 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The national live pig inventory was 42,9670,000 heads, a decrease of 7130,000 heads; the national breeding sow inventory was 3,9610,000 heads, a decrease of 290,000 heads [3] Industry Situation - The year - on - year CPI in the current month was 0.2%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3,060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; the spot price of corn was 2,403.14 yuan, an increase of 5.1 yuan; the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index was 944.07, an increase of 19.16; the monthly output of feed was 30,086,000 tons, an increase of 307,000 tons; the price of binary breeding sows was 1,429 yuan/head, unchanged; the breeding profit of purchased piglets was 20.83 yuan/head, a decrease of 32.27 yuan; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised live pigs was - 159.65 yuan/head, a decrease of 61.33 yuan; the monthly import volume of pork was 60,000 tons, unchanged; the average price of white - striped chickens in the main production areas was 13.8 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.2 yuan [3] Downstream Situation - The slaughter volume of designated live pig slaughtering enterprises was 4,4040,000 heads, a decrease of 4870,000 heads; the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 573.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 31.9 billion yuan [3] Industry News - According to Mysteel data, in February 2026, the breeding sows of key sample enterprises decreased by 0.02% month - on - month, the inventory of commercial pigs increased by 1.77% month - on - month, and the slaughter of commercial pigs decreased by 12.23% month - on - month. After the Spring Festival, the farming end gradually resumed the slaughter rhythm. Combining the sow production capacity and the number of newborn piglets, it is speculated that the supply pressure in the near - term remains. On the demand side, slaughtering enterprises resumed work one after another after the festival, and the slaughter volume rebounded from the low level during the holiday. However, as the temperature rises, consumption enters the traditional off - season, and the slaughter volume is difficult to return to the pre - holiday high [3]