生猪产业日报 2025-09-25 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | | 12685 | -45 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 89538 | -1281 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | | 328 | -40 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -24074 | -1605 | | 现货价格 | 生猪价 河南 驻马店(日,元/吨) | | 12800 | 0 生猪价 吉林 四平(日,元/吨) | 12600 | 0 | | | 生猪价 广东 云浮(日,元/吨) | | 13400 | -200 生猪主力基差(日,元/吨) | 115 | 45 | | 上游情况 | 生猪存栏(月,万头) | | 42447 | 716 生猪存栏:能繁母猪(月,万头) | 4042 | -1 | | 产业情况 | CPI:当月同比(月,%) | | -0.4 | -0.4 现货价:豆粕:张家港(日,元 ...

生猪产业日报 2025-09-23 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 12665 | -130 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 93514 | -531 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 427 | -1 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -23708 | 575 | | 现货价格 | 生猪价 河南 驻马店(日,元/吨) | 12700 | -100 生猪价 吉林 四平(日,元/吨) | 12600 | 0 | | | 生猪价 广东 云浮(日,元/吨) | 13400 | -200 生猪主力基差(日,元/吨) | 35 | 30 | | 上游情况 | 生猪存栏(月,万头) | 42447 | 716 生猪存栏:能繁母猪(月,万头) | 4042 | -1 | | 产业情况 | CPI:当月同比(月,%) | -0.4 | -0.4 现货价:豆粕:张家港(日,元/吨) | 2920 | -30 | | ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The market situation of oversupply persists, causing the market price to be under pressure and run weakly. It is recommended to conduct reverse arbitrage operations on live hog futures [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for live hogs is 12,795 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the main contract position is 94,045 lots, down 2,706 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 428 lots, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is -24,283 lots, up 1,521 lots [2]. 2. Spot Market - The spot price of live hogs in Henan Zhumadian is 12,800 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in Jilin Siping is 12,600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; in Guangdong Yunfu is 13,600 yuan/ton, unchanged. The main basis of live hogs is 5 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan [2]. 3. Upstream Situation - The monthly live hog inventory is 42.447 million heads, up 716,000 heads; the inventory of breeding sows is 4.042 million heads, down 1,000 heads [2]. 4. Industry Situation - The year - on - year change of CPI is -0.4%, down 0.4 percentage points. The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2,950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of corn is 2,358.43 yuan/ton, down 1.96 yuan; the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index is 893.59, down 4.44. The monthly output of feed is 29.272 million tons, up 999,000 tons. The price of binary breeding sows is 1,625 yuan/head, unchanged. The breeding profit of purchased piglets is -199.31 yuan/head, down 37.38 yuan; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised live hogs is -24.44 yuan/head, down 41.28 yuan. The monthly import volume of pork is 80,000 tons, down 10,000 tons. The average price of white - striped chicken in the main producing areas is 14.3 yuan/kg, unchanged [2]. 5. Downstream Situation - The monthly slaughter volume of designated live hog slaughtering enterprises is 3.166 million heads, up 160,000 heads. The monthly value of catering revenue in total retail sales of social consumer goods is 449.57 billion yuan, down 8.4 billion yuan [2]. 6. Industry News - On September 22, 2025, the daily national live hog出栏量 of key breeding enterprises was 290,124 heads, up 6.38% from Friday. In the short term, the supply side has pressure, and the breeding side is actively selling. The demand side is gradually warming up, but the overall growth is limited [2].

统均线呈现空头排列，整体偏空震荡运行。 研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 12830 | -170 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 98989 | 4913 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 428 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -27198 | -1011 | | 现货价格 | 生猪价 河 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 13550 | -45 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 73596 | 208 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 430 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -15747 | 102 | | 现货价格 | 生猪价 河南 驻马店(日,元/吨) | 13900 | -300 生猪价 吉林 四平(日,元/吨) | 13500 | -100 | | | 生猪价 广东 云浮(日,元/吨) | 15800 | 0 生猪主力基差(日,元/吨) | 350 | -255 | | 上游情况 | 生猪存栏(月,万头) | 42447 | 716 生猪存栏:能繁母猪(月,万头) | 4042 | -1 | | 产业情况 | CPI:当月同比(月,%) | 0 | -0.1 现货价:豆粕:张家港(日,元/吨) | 3050 | 0 | | | 玉米现货价 | 2363.73 | 0.4 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: September 1, 2025 [1] - Report Type: Daily Report on the Pig Industry 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On September 1, 2025, the national daily pig slaughter volume of key breeding enterprises decreased by 15.06% compared to Friday, and the 2511 pig contract rose 0.33% on Monday [2] - Due to the implementation of the transfer policy on September 1st and the reduction at the beginning of the month, the short - term supply pressure has eased, but the medium - term supply pressure remains as September corresponds to the peak of the previous increasing cycle of fertile sows [2] - The price difference between fattening pigs and standard pigs continues to widen, providing conditions for later pressure on inventory and secondary fattening [2] - The pig - grain ratio has triggered a third - level warning, and the state has launched a combination of "new purchases for storage" and "rotational purchases for storage" to stabilize the market [2] - With sufficient pig supply, increased demand from schools after the start of the semester, and the continuous recovery of the slaughterhouse's operating rate [2] - In general, the short - term supply pressure still exists, suppressing pig prices, but the short - term slaughter rhythm may slow down, and with the recovery of the operating rate and the storage purchase policy, the short - term decline space is expected to be limited, and the market will operate weakly with fluctuations. It is recommended to sell short on rebounds [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for pigs is 13,625 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring increase of 70 yuan/ton; the main contract position is 75,464 lots, with a ring - to - ring increase of 1,828 lots [2] - The number of warehouse receipts for pigs is 430 lots, with no change; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 14,798 lots, with a ring - to - ring increase of 1,278 lots [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The pig price in Zhumadian, Henan is 14,100 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring increase of 400 yuan/ton; in Siping, Jilin is 13,600 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring increase of 100 yuan/ton; in Yunfu, Guangdong is 14,500 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 400 yuan/ton [2] - The main basis for pigs is 475 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring increase of 330 yuan/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly pig inventory is 42,4470,000 heads, with an increase of 7160,000 heads; the inventory of fertile sows is 4,0420,000 heads, with a decrease of 10,000 heads [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The year - on - year change of CPI for the current month is 0%, with a decrease of 0.1 percentage points [2] - The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,050 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring increase of 10 yuan/ton; the spot price of corn is 2,364.12 yuan/ton, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 0.59 yuan/ton [2] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange's pig feed cost index is 908.84, with a ring - to - ring increase of 0.95 [2] - The monthly output of feed is 28,273,000 tons, with a decrease of 1,104,000 tons [2] - The price of binary fertile sows is 1,625 yuan/head, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 2 yuan/head [2] - The breeding profit from purchasing piglets is - 148.41 yuan/head, with a ring - to - ring increase of 3.39 yuan/head; the breeding profit from self - breeding and self - raising pigs is 32.24 yuan/head, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 1.71 yuan/head [2] - The monthly import volume of pork is 90,000 tons, with no change; the average price of white - striped chickens in the main producing areas is 14.3 yuan/kg, with a ring - to - ring decrease of 0.1 yuan/kg [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises is 31,660,000 heads, with an increase of 1,600,000 heads [2] - The monthly total retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 450.41 billion yuan, with a decrease of 20.35 billion yuan [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Although the large出栏 pressure in August restrains the performance of the spot price, the state's reserve purchase boosts market confidence, and the approaching school - opening brings expectations of improved demand. It is expected that the short - term hog futures price will fluctuate strongly within a range. It is recommended to wait and see for now, and pay attention to the 出栏 rhythm and downstream demand [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main hog futures contract is 13,860 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 70,270 lots, up 241 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 0 lots, down 430 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 17,252 lots, down 923 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The hog price in Henan Zhumadian is 13,600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in Jilin Siping is 13,200 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in Guangdong Yunfu is 15,100 yuan/ton, unchanged. The main hog basis is - 260 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly hog inventory is 42,4470,000 heads, up 7160,000 heads; the inventory of breeding sows is 4,0430,000 heads, up 10,000 heads [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly year - on - year CPI is 0%, down 0.1 percentage points. The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,050 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the spot price of corn is 2,367.75 yuan/ton, down 0.68 yuan; the Dalian Commodity Exchange hog feed cost index is 900.89, down 1.93. The monthly output of feed is 29,377,000 tons, up 1,756,000 tons; the weekly price of binary breeding sows is 1,627 yuan/head, down 11 yuan. The weekly breeding profit of purchased piglets is - 151.8 yuan/head, up 5.25 yuan; the weekly breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised hogs is 33.95 yuan/head, up 5.1 yuan. The monthly import volume of pork is 90,000 tons, unchanged. The weekly average price of white - striped chicken in the main producing areas is 14.4 yuan/kg, up 0.3 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly slaughter volume of designated hog slaughtering enterprises is 3,0060,000 heads, down 2100,000 heads; the monthly value of catering revenue in total social consumer goods retail sales is 470.76 billion yuan, up 12.94 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On August 26, 2025, the daily hog 出栏 volume of key breeding enterprises nationwide was 276,484 heads, up 2.41% from the previous day. On Tuesday, the hog 2511 contract closed down 0.47%. In August, the 出栏 plan of the breeding end increased month - on - month, and the market supply was loose. The current price difference between fat and lean hogs widened, providing conditions for later 压栏 [2]. 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - The state will carry out central pork reserve purchases in the near future, boosting market confidence. With sufficient hog supply, the demand in some areas has recovered, and the slaughterhouse's operating rate has rebounded moderately. It is expected that the demand will improve after the start of school and the upcoming double - festival stocking. Overall, although the large 出栏 pressure in August restrains the spot price, the reserve purchase and the expected improvement in demand will make the short - term hog futures price oscillate strongly within a range [2]. 3.8 Key Concerns - There is no news today. It is necessary to pay attention to the 出栏 rhythm and downstream demand [2].

瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | 期货主力合约收盘价:生猪(日,元/吨) | 13765 | -10 主力合约持仓量:生猪(日,手) | 69877 | -741 | | | 仓单数量:生猪(日,手) | 430 | 0 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:生猪(日,手) | -15934 | 96 | | 现货价格 | 生猪价 河南 驻马店(日,元/吨) | 13700 | 100 生猪价 吉林 四平(日,元/吨) | 13400 | 0 | | | 生猪价 广东 云浮(日,元/吨) | 15100 | 200 生猪主力基差(日,元/吨) | -75 | 225 | | 上游情况 | 生猪存栏(月,万头) | 42447 | 716 生猪存栏:能繁母猪(月,万头) | 4043 | 1 | | 产业情况 | CPI:当月同比(月,%) | 0 | -0.1 现货价:豆粕:张家港(日,元/吨) | 30 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - In August 2025, the pig slaughter plan increased month - on - month, leading to a relatively loose market supply. As the price fell, some farms might have the intention to hold prices, and the increasing spread between fat and lean pig prices provided conditions for later hoarding. On the demand side, the supply of pigs was sufficient, and demand in some areas recovered, with the slaughterhouse operation rate rising moderately. It was expected that demand would improve with the start of school in late August and the upcoming Double - Festival stocking. Overall, the pressure on pig sales in August was high, and the weak adjustment of the spot price dragged down the main pig futures contract. However, due to policy guidance, the expected long - term supply pressure decreased marginally, and the expected demand improvement from the start of school limited the decline space of pig futures prices, with the market expected to be mainly in a volatile state. It was recommended to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - The closing price of the main futures contract for live pigs was 13,775 yuan/ton, a decrease of 125 yuan; the position volume of the main contract was 70,618 lots, an increase of 2,684 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 430 lots, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions was - 16,030 lots, an increase of 867 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Price - The live pig price in Zhumadian, Henan was 13,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan; in Siping, Jilin it was 13,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Yunfu, Guangdong it was 15,100 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan. The basis of the main live pig contract was - 75 yuan/ton, an increase of 225 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The live pig inventory was 42,4470,000 heads, an increase of 7160,000 heads; the inventory of breeding sows was 4,0430,000 heads, an increase of 10,000 heads [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The year - on - year change of CPI was 0%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3,070 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of corn was 2,384.71 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.66 yuan; the pig feed cost index of the Dalian Commodity Exchange was 911.24, a decrease of 0.09; the monthly output of feed was 29,377,000 tons, an increase of 1,756,000 tons; the price of二元能繁母猪 was 1,638 yuan/head, unchanged; the breeding profit of purchased piglets was - 157.05 yuan/head, a decrease of 22.91 yuan; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs was 28.85 yuan/head, a decrease of 16.28 yuan; the monthly import volume of pork was 90,000 tons, unchanged; the average price of white - striped chicken in the main production areas was 14.1 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.2 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The slaughter volume of designated pig slaughtering enterprises was 3,0060,000 heads, a decrease of 2100,000 heads; the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry was 470.76 billion yuan, an increase of 12.94 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On August 20, 2025, the daily national live pig sales volume of key breeding enterprises was 262,893 heads, a 1.62% increase from the previous day. On Wednesday, the live pig 2511 contract closed down 0.72% [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure in the market still exists as the slaughter resumes to rise after a brief price - holding by the breeding side, and the scale of secondary fattening is limited. However, the current price difference between fat pigs and standard pigs has widened, providing conditions for later hoarding. On the demand side, the supply of pigs is sufficient, and the demand in some areas has improved. The slaughterhouse's operating rate has moderately increased. It is expected that the demand will significantly improve with the start of school in late August and the subsequent Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day stocking. Overall, the slaughter pressure in August is high, and the spot price is weakly adjusted. The long - term supply pressure expectation is decreasing marginally, and the demand improvement expectation due to the upcoming start of school is expected to limit the decline space of the hog futures price. It is recommended to wait and see for now, focusing on the slaughter and secondary fattening situation [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main hog futures contract is 13,820 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 71,193 lots, up 6,351 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 430 lots, unchanged; the net long positions of the top 20 futures holders is - 17,718 lots, up 265 lots. The hog 2511 contract closed down 0.65% on Monday [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The hog price in Henan Zhumadian is 13,600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; in Jilin Siping is 13,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangdong Yunfu is 14,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The main hog basis is - 220 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly hog inventory is 42,4470,000 heads, up 7160,000 heads; the monthly inventory of breeding sows is 4,0430,000 heads, up 10,000 heads. The CPI's year - on - year change is 0%, down 0.1 percentage points. The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 3,070 yuan/ton, unchanged; the corn spot price is 2,393.92 yuan/ton, down 0.2 yuan. The Dalian Commodity Exchange's hog feed cost index is 917.93, down 6.14. The monthly feed output is 29,377,000 tons, up 1,756,000 tons. The weekly price of binary breeding sows is 1,638 yuan/head, unchanged. The weekly breeding profit of purchased piglets is - 157.05 yuan/head, down 22.91 yuan; the weekly breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised hogs is 28.85 yuan/head, down 16.28 yuan. The monthly pork import volume is 90,000 tons, unchanged. The weekly average price of white - striped chicken in the main producing areas is 14.1 yuan/kg, up 0.2 yuan [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The monthly slaughter volume of designated hog slaughtering enterprises is 3,0060,000 heads, down 2100,000 heads. The monthly value of catering revenue in social consumer goods retail sales is 470.76 billion yuan, up 1.294 billion yuan [2] 3.5 Industry News - China's pork import volume in July was 90,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6%; from January to July, the pork import volume was 630,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.1%. On August 18, 2025, the daily hog slaughter volume of key breeding enterprises nationwide was 274,282 heads, a 1.69% increase from the previous period [2]