伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊：美国应避免在谈判中说废话。 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses the factors influencing oil price volatility, including the downgrade of the US credit rating, stalled US-Iran negotiations, and the ongoing weakness of the US dollar [1] Group 1: Economic Factors - The downgrade of the US credit rating has raised concerns about economic stability, which could impact investor confidence and market dynamics [1] - Stalled negotiations between the US and Iran are contributing to uncertainty in the oil market, affecting supply expectations and pricing [1] - The continuous weakening of the US dollar is influencing oil prices, as oil is typically traded in dollars, making it more expensive for foreign buyers [1]

本轮调价后，全国大多数地区车柴价格将降至6.6元-6.8元/升，92号汽油零售价降至7元-7.1元/升。 本轮油价下调意味着今晚过后私家车主用油成本将大幅降低。隆众资讯测算，以油箱容量50升的普通私 家车计算，本轮调价后，车主们加满一箱油将少花9元左右；市区百公里耗油7-8升的车型平均每行驶一 百公里，燃油费用减少1.3元左右；而对满载50吨的大型物流运输车辆而言，平均每行驶一百公里，燃 油费用减少7.6元左右。 本轮计价周期内，国际油价先跌后涨，最终收跌。综合卓创资讯与隆众资讯的观点，本轮计价周期前 期，石油输出国组织OPEC+（欧佩克+）意外大幅增产导致市场情绪偏悲观，原油价格下跌；后来随着 中美达成贸易协议，市场对贸易争端风险的担忧减弱，国际油价反弹上涨；但随后，美伊谈判释放积极 信号，叠加OPEC+延续增产的操作，导致国际油价最终收跌。 下一次调价窗口将在6月3日24时开启，机构表示，以当前国际原油价格水平计算，下一轮成品油调价将 呈现开局上调走势。 整体看，下一轮成品油调价下调概率较大。隆众资讯表示，虽然市场对后市需求前景的看法有所改善， 但美国与伊朗谈判出现重大进展，美伊局势可能出现缓和，且全球经 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views - The short - term trend of the soybean oil 2509 contract is likely to be a range - bound consolidation [1]. - The short - term trend of soybean meal is likely to be a volatile run [2]. - The short - term decline of domestic corn is expected to be limited [3]. - Copper prices may break through the moving average system in the short term, and investors should be prepared for defense [4]. - The lithium carbonate 2507 contract may experience a weak and volatile trend, and short - selling on rallies is advisable [7]. - For the steel market, the black negative feedback is gradually reflected in the price, and a strategy of buying at low levels is recommended [8]. - The coking coal and coke market is expected to be weak and volatile at low levels due to loose supply [9]. - The short - term trend of iron ore 2509 is likely to be volatile, and traders are advised to be cautious [10]. - The WTI crude oil main contract is likely to oscillate between $55 - $65 per barrel [11]. - For natural rubber, attention should be paid to the downstream operating rate and the height of the resonance rebound [13]. - The PVC futures price rebound space is limited due to weak fundamentals [15]. - The soda ash futures market is expected to be short - term oscillating strongly [16]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Oil - **Spot Information**: The price of Grade 1 soybean oil at Rizhao Cargill is 8,130 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [1]. - **Market Analysis**: South American new - crop soybeans are likely to have a bumper harvest. The USDA May report shows that the estimated soybean yield per acre in the 2025/26 season is 52.5 bushels, compared to 50.7 bushels in the 2024/25 season. The medium - term destocking cycle of soybean oil may be coming to an end, and the inventory may rebound after the arrival of South American imported soybeans [1]. Soybean Meal - **Spot Information**: The spot prices of 43% soybean meal in Zhangjiagang, Tianjin, and Dongguan are 2,980 yuan/ton (- 20), 2,970 yuan/ton (- 70), and 3,030 yuan/ton (- 40) respectively [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The USDA May report shows a decrease in US soybean production and an increase in global inventory. The domestic supply of soybean meal is expected to change from tight to loose, with good demand from the breeding end, and the inventory accumulation speed is slow in the short term [2]. Corn - **Spot Information**: The mainstream purchase prices of new corn vary in different regions, such as 2,200 yuan/ton in Northeast China and Inner Mongolia, and 2,432 yuan/ton in North China and Huanghuai [3]. - **Market Analysis**: There is an expectation of loose corn imports in the medium - to - long term, but the actual negative impact is limited. Domestically, there is a temporary supply shortage, and downstream demand is weak [3]. Copper - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai 1 electrolytic copper is 78,760 - 79,050 yuan, up 750 yuan, with a discount of 50 - flat water. The imported copper ore index is - 43.11, down 0.5 [4]. - **Market Analysis**: The progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is beneficial to the commodity market. Domestically, policy support boosts market sentiment. However, raw material issues still exist, and the copper market situation is complex [4]. Lithium Carbonate - **Spot Information**: The market price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) is 65,050 yuan/ton (+100), and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%) is 63,550 yuan/ton [5]. - **Market Analysis**: The cost support for lithium carbonate is weakening, supply is high, demand improvement is insufficient, and inventory is accumulating. The price has dropped, and attention should be paid to the 60,000 - yuan/ton support level [6]. Steel - **Spot Information**: The price of Shanghai rebar is 3,170 yuan, the Tangshan operating rate is 83.56%, the social inventory is 5.3276 million tons, and the steel mill inventory is 2.004 million tons [8]. - **Market Analysis**: The steel market fundamentals are gradually improving, with low inventory. The short - term market is dominated by macro - policy expectations, showing a pattern of strong supply and demand [8]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Spot Information**: The price of main coking coal (Meng 5) is 1,205 yuan/ton, and the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port is 1,340 yuan/ton. The port inventory of imported coking coal is 3.3738 million tons, and the port inventory of coke is 2.461 million tons [9]. - **Market Analysis**: The supply of coking coal and coke is loose, demand is low, inventory is slightly accumulating, and the profit is approaching the break - even point [9]. Iron Ore - **Spot Information**: The Platts iron ore index is 102.8, the price of Qingdao PB (61.5%) powder is 778 yuan, and the price of Australian iron ore powder (62% Fe) is 780 yuan [10]. - **Market Analysis**: The iron ore market has both long and short factors. Supply has a slight decrease, demand has a mixed situation, and the tariff policy affects the price [10]. Crude Oil - **Market Analysis**: The progress of the US - Iran negotiation and the easing of the trade war have an impact on the oil price. OPEC+ plans to increase production in June, and the long - term price is expected to decline, with technical support at $55 per barrel for the WTI main contract [11]. Natural Rubber - **Market Analysis**: The rubber market rebounds in resonance with the market, but the rebound height is limited due to fundamentals. The supply is loose, and the US auto tariff policy may suppress demand [12]. PVC - **Spot Information**: The mainstream price of East China 5 - type PVC is 4,880 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of ethylene - based PVC is 5,100 yuan/ton [14]. - **Market Analysis**: The PVC production enterprise operating rate has a slight increase, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventory has a slight decrease. The futures price rebounds under macro - sentiment influence, but the fundamental improvement is limited [14]. Soda Ash - **Spot Information**: The national mainstream price of heavy soda ash is 1,425 yuan/ton, with a slight increase [16]. - **Market Analysis**: The soda ash operating rate and production decrease due to maintenance, inventory decreases slightly, demand is average, and the market is expected to be short - term oscillating strongly [16].

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-铁矿石】5月14日，山东港口进口铁矿价格较上一 工作日价格偏强运行，累计上涨10-15。目前PB粉主流在778- 780；超特粉主流在645附近；PB块主流在915附近。评：主力期 价持续上行，量仓扩大。现阶段，得益于市场情绪回暖，贴水 修复逻辑支撑下矿价强势上涨，短期维持偏强运行态势，但矿 石需求趋于触顶，且供应维持高位，基本面仍易转弱，上行驱 动不强，高位谨慎看涨，谨防逻辑切换至现实端。 【短评-原油】欧佩克月报显示，4月份，OPEC原油总产量 下降6.2万桶/日，至2671万桶/日，而"欧佩克+"国家总产量 下降10.6万桶/日，至4092万桶/日。哈萨克斯坦4月份石油产量 下降4.1万桶/日，至182万桶/日；欧佩克表示，2025年，欧佩 克+以外国家的供应量将增加约80万桶/日，低于上月预测的90 万桶/日；OPEC预计2025年石油需求将增加130万桶/日，2026年 增加128万桶/日，这一预测高于国际能源署估计的72.6万桶/ 日。评：欧佩克同意增加供应的八个国家上个月总共只增加了 2.5万桶/日，远低于计划的13.8万桶/日，该组织对全球贸易形 势的发展持 ...

1. Overall Investment Ratings for Different Varieties - Crude oil: Weak [1] - LPG: Weak [1] - L: Rebound [1] - PP: Rebound [1] - PVC: Rebound [1] - PX: Bullish [1] - PTA/PR: Bullish [1] - Ethylene glycol: Bullish [1] - Glass: Sideways [1] - Soda ash: Sideways [1] - Methanol: Bearish/Expand ur - ma spread [1] - Urea: Bullish [1] - Asphalt: Pullback [1] 2. Core Views Crude Oil - Geopolitical tensions ease due to progress in US - Iran negotiations, leading to a decline in oil prices. Supply and demand factors, along with inventory changes, also influence the market. Long - term, supply is expected to be in excess, while short - term, holding bullish spread options is recommended [1][4][5]. LPG - Oil price pullbacks and reduced downstream开工率 result in a weak and sideways trend for LPG. The long - term trend is mainly influenced by upstream crude oil, and short - term, holding short positions is advised [1][7][8]. L - There is an expectation of rush exports for terminal plastic products. The market rebounds within a range, but the fundamental pattern is weak, with ample supply limiting the upside [1][11]. PP - Terminal products have an expectation of rush exports, and downstream inventory is concentrated. With tariff easing and oil price declines, PDH开工率 is expected to rise. However, the supply - demand pattern is weak, and the basis weakens, so the rebound is bearish [1][14]. PVC - The easing of Sino - US trade conflicts improves the export outlook for floor products. Low valuations support a short - term rebound, but high开工率 and weak domestic demand limit the upside [1][17]. PX - Planned plant maintenance eases supply pressure. Although demand - side plant maintenance is high and inventory is still relatively high, the fundamentals improve in May, and the short - term trend is bullish [1][19]. PTA/PR - High levels of plant maintenance relieve supply - side pressure. Downstream polyester开工率 remains high, and terminal weaving开工率 recovers. PTA inventory decreases, and the short - term trend is bullish [1][22]. Ethylene Glycol - Supply recovers, and imports exceed expectations despite low arrival volumes. Demand from the polyester sector is strong, and terminal weaving shows signs of improvement, so the short - term trend is bullish [1][26]. Glass - The easing of tariff policies and an increase in social financing growth are countered by lower spot prices and increased warehouse receipts. The market is in a low - level sideways pattern due to weak fundamentals [1][29]. Soda Ash - Although there is some improvement in market sentiment, the fundamentals are weak, with high开工率, ample supply, and high inventory levels. The market is in a sideways pattern [1][31]. Methanol - Supply pressure increases as previously shut - down plants resume production and imports are expected. Demand is weak, and inventory accumulates. The market remains in a loose state, and the rebound is bearish [1][32]. Urea - Supply pressure persists as maintenance plants resume production. Agricultural demand is in a lull, but fertilizer exports are growing rapidly. The short - term trend is bullish, but short - selling opportunities should be watched for [1]. Asphalt - Oil price declines increase the pressure for asphalt to pull back. There are both bullish and bearish factors, such as changes in social inventory and开工率 [1]. 3. Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight, international oil prices continued to decline, with WTI down 1.55%, Brent down 0.81%, and SC up 1.04% [3]. - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical tensions ease as Iran is willing to destroy weapons - grade uranium in exchange for US sanctions relief. Iraq plans to reduce exports in May and June, and CPC exports in May are lower than in April. Global oil demand in 2025 is expected to be 1.037 billion barrels per day. Indian fuel demand in April decreased by 3.7%. US commercial crude and strategic reserves increased, while gasoline and distillate inventories decreased [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, oil prices will fluctuate between $55 - $65 due to factors such as trade wars and new energy impacts. In the short - term, hold bullish spread options, and focus on the range of SC [475 - 490] [5]. LPG - **Market Review**: On May 14, the PG main contract closed at 4,368 yuan/ton, up 1.16% month - on - month. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China decreased by 30 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, and 20 yuan/ton respectively [6]. - **Basic Logic**: Oil price upside weakens, and LPG fundamentals are bearish. After the reduction of tariffs on the US, import costs decrease. Downstream PDH开工率 drops, and port inventory rises [7]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the long - term, the trend is mainly linked to upstream crude oil and is bearish. Technically, the upward momentum is insufficient, and short positions should be held. Focus on the range of PG [4290 - 4350] [8]. L - **Market Review**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 1 yuan/ton day - on - day [10]. - **Basic Logic**: Short - term sales drive inventory reduction, but high pre - sale costs for traders and resistance from end - users to high - priced raw materials limit price increases. Terminal plastic products have an expectation of rush exports, and the market rebounds, but supply is ample [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The rebound is bearish. Focus on the range of L [7300 - 7400] [11]. PP - **Market Review**: The L - PP09 spread increased by 53 yuan/ton day - on - day [13]. - **Basic Logic**: With the easing of tariff policies, the supply of polypropylene will be re - evaluated. The supply - demand contradiction will not be effectively resolved, and the market is expected to be in a state of oversupply. Terminal products have an expectation of rush exports, and downstream inventory is concentrated, but the basis weakens [14]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The rebound is bearish. Focus on the range of PP [7100 - 7230] [14]. PVC - **Market Review**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 1 yuan/ton month - on - month [16]. - **Basic Logic**: In January, a new 500,000 - ton plant of Xinpu Chemical was put into operation, and the utilization rate of production capacity is 79%. The decline in real estate completion area narrows, and downstream开工率 decreases seasonally. PVC exports from January to March 2025 increased by 56% year - on - year. The easing of Sino - US trade conflicts improves the export outlook for floor products, and low valuations support a short - term rebound [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Participate in the short - term. Focus on the range of V [4950 - 5100] [17]. PX - **Market Review**: On May 9, the spot price of PX in East China was 6,500 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month), and the PX09 contract closed at 6,472 yuan/ton (+68) [18]. - **Basic Logic**: PX plants are under planned maintenance, relieving supply pressure. There are also changes in supply and demand, inventory, and processing spreads. The fundamentals improve in May, and the short - term trend is bullish [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range of PX [6820 - 7020] [19]. PTA/PR - **Market Review**: On May 9, the PTA price in East China was 4,720 yuan/ton (+110), and the TA09 contract closed at 4,582 yuan/ton (+36). The TA9 - 1 spread was 72 yuan/ton (+8), and the basis in East China was 138 yuan/ton (+74) [20][21]. - **Basic Logic**: PTA plants are under high - level maintenance, relieving supply pressure. Downstream polyester开工率 remains high, and terminal weaving开工率 recovers. PTA inventory decreases, and the short - term trend is bullish [22]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range of TA [4820 - 4950] [23]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On May 9, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,300 yuan/ton (+20), and the EG09 contract closed at 4,218 yuan/ton (-4). The EG6 - 9 spread was 35 yuan/ton (+10), and the basis in East China was 82 yuan/ton (+24) [24][25]. - **Basic Logic**: Recent plant maintenance eases supply pressure. Arrival volumes are low, but imports exceed expectations. Demand from the polyester sector is strong, and terminal weaving shows signs of improvement [26]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range of EG [4450 - 4600] [27]. Glass - **Market Review**: Spot prices decreased, the futures market stopped falling and rose, the basis narrowed, and warehouse receipts increased [28]. - **Basic Logic**: The easing of tariff policies and an increase in social financing growth are countered by lower spot prices and increased warehouse receipts. The market is in a low - level sideways pattern due to weak fundamentals [29]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: No specific strategy recommendation provided in the given text. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The price of heavy soda ash increased, the futures market stopped falling and rose, the basis narrowed, warehouse receipts decreased, and the forecast remained unchanged [30]. - **Basic Logic**: Although some plants are under maintenance in May, the开工率 remains high, and the supply - demand imbalance persists. Downstream demand is weak, and inventory is at a high level [31]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Focus on the range of SA [1320 - 1350] [31]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On May 9, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,400 yuan/ton (+20), and the main 09 contract closed at 2,227 yuan/ton (+11). The basis in East China was 170 yuan/ton (-4), and the port basis was 173 yuan/ton (+9) [32]. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure increases as previously shut - down plants resume production and imports are expected. Demand is weak, and inventory accumulates. The cost support is weak [32]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: The rebound is bearish. Focus on the range of MA [2310 - 2380] [33]. Urea - **Market Review**: No specific market review information provided in the given text. - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure persists as maintenance plants resume production. Agricultural demand is in a lull, but fertilizer exports are growing rapidly. The cost fluctuates slightly, and the short - term trend is bullish [1]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: No specific strategy recommendation provided in the given text. Asphalt - **Market Review**: No specific market review information provided in the given text. - **Basic Logic**: Oil price declines increase the pressure for asphalt to pull back. There are both bullish and bearish factors, such as changes in social inventory and开工率 [1]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: No specific strategy recommendation provided in the given text.

克兰冲突的和平进程。然而美国总统特朗普昨日发文称,或许要通过金融领域的 制裁或二级制裁措施来对付普京。鲁比奥还表示,俄罗斯和乌克兰在达成和平协 议方面总体比过去三年来更为接近,俄鸟之间的和平协议需要尽快达成,美国有 多种方式追究那些不愿意推动鸟克兰和平协议的责任人责任。 7、国国务卿鲁比奥周日表示,美国不会扩大对俄罗斯的制裁,以免于扰解决乌 近期原油价格持续下行,市场观望氛围较浓。部分贸易商为回笼资金低价抛 货,北方区域部分炼厂恢复沥青生产,带动当地供应量有所增加。假期期间沥青 价格小幅回落。南方市场主力炼厂维持间歇性生产,以船运发货为主,炼厂库存 水平下降,对沥青价格形成一定支撑。北方市场需求虽缓慢回升,但区域沥青供 应量预计继续增加,叠加成本端支撑较弱,沥青价格或维持弱稳态势;南方市场 延续按需采购模式,低价资源成交占比更高,由于整体供应充裕,沥青价格大概 率延续窄幅震荡走势。 交易策略:单边预计跟随原油价格震荡。 【BU】 | ITC国贸期货 | 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

伊朗提议在与美国进行下一轮谈判前先与欧洲会面 金十数据4月29日讯，据外媒报道，四名外交官周一表示，伊朗提议如果与美国恢复谈判，伊朗可能于 本周五在罗马与2015年核协议的欧洲各方举行会晤，并提醒称欧洲方面尚未对这一想法作出回应。阿曼 官员表示，新一轮美伊会谈可能于5月3日在欧洲举行。目前尚未做出正式决定。伊朗向英国、法国和德 国（即E3）伸出橄榄枝，这表明德黑兰方面仍在保留选择，同时也希望评估欧洲方面在10月之前可能 重新实施联合国制裁的立场--届时，批准2015年核协议的决议将到期。两名E3外交官和一名西方外交官 表示，伊朗在上周六与美国会谈后提出了可能于周五在罗马举行会谈的提议。外交官们表示，如果这不 可能的话，伊朗方面还建议在此日期之前在德黑兰进行讨论。 ...

沪铅产业日报 2025-04-28 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铅主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 17005 | 60 LME3个月铅报价(日,美元/吨) | 1945 | -14.5 | | 期货市场 | 06-07月合约价差:沪铅(日,元/吨) | 5 | -20 沪铅持仓量(日,手) | 70496 | -1663 | | | 沪铅前20名净持仓(日,手) | -211 | -546 沪铅仓单(日,吨) | 37971 | 0 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) | 45654 | -11406 LME铅库存(日,吨) | 274075 | -3800 | | | 上海有色网1#铅现货价(日,元/吨) | 16775 | -100 长江有色市场1#铅现货价(日,元/吨) | 17120 | 70 | | 现货市场 | 铅主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -230 | -160 LME铅升贴水(0-3)(日,美元/吨) | -18.41 | 2.78 | | | 铅精矿 ...

据伊朗塔斯尼姆通讯社：消息人士称，特朗普预计将在几小时内就美伊谈判内容发表评论，这些评论可 能仅旨在影响公众舆论和谈判氛围。特朗普即将发表的声明甚至可能不会与目前参与谈判的美国谈判小 组进行协调。 ...