原油日报 | 2025-08-26 宏观情绪与俄乌局势推动油价反弹 市场要闻与重要数据 1、 纽约商品交易所10月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨1.14美元，收于每桶64.80美元，涨幅为1.79%；10月交货的 伦敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨1.07美元，收于每桶68.80美元，涨幅为1.58%。SC原油主力合约收涨1.16%，报499 元/桶。 2、 印尼贸易部周一敦促欧盟立即取消对生物柴油进口征收的反补贴税，因世贸组织在该国提起的申诉中，就多 项关键诉求作出了有利于印尼的裁决。(来源：Bloomberg） 3、 伊朗外交部发言人巴加埃宣布，伊朗与英法德三国26日将在瑞士日内瓦就伊核问题等举行会谈。巴加埃表示， 此次副外长级别的会谈是伊朗外长22日与英法德三国外长和欧盟外交与安全政策高级代表通话的后续行动。会谈 除讨论解除制裁和核问题外，还将讨论联合国安理会第2231号决议及其未来走向。(来源：Bloomberg） 4、 乌克兰对俄罗斯炼油厂的无人机袭击加剧了俄罗斯国内燃料市场的夏季危机，在季节性需求高峰期间导致价 格飙升。随着供应萎缩，俄罗斯8月燃料批发价格创下历史纪录。这削弱了非俄罗斯石油巨头运营的小型加油站 ...

国际油价22日微涨。 截至当天收盘，纽约商品交易所10月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨14美分，收于每桶63.66美元，涨幅 为0.22%；10月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨6美分，收于每桶67.73美元，涨幅为0.09%。 ...

新华社纽约8月22日电 国际油价22日微涨。 截至当天收盘，纽约商品交易所10月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨14美分，收于每桶63.66美元，涨幅 为0.22%；10月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨6美分，收于每桶67.73美元，涨幅为0.09%。 【纠错】 【责任编辑:艾莲】 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [3] Core View - If the Russia - Ukraine situation doesn't change and they fail to reach a peace agreement on August 27th, India will face an additional 25% tariff, which will impact India's economy and oil demand and lead to a downward revision of India's oil demand [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 81 cents to $63.52 per barrel, a 1.29% increase; the price of Brent crude oil futures for October delivery in London rose 83 cents to $67.67 per barrel, a 1.24% increase. The SC crude oil main contract closed up 1.27% at 493 yuan per barrel [1] - Canadian Prime Minister Carney had a phone call with US President Trump on Thursday to discuss trade challenges and opportunities [2] - Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu instructed to immediately start negotiations to release all hostages in Gaza and end the war there under acceptable conditions [2] - The US imposed sanctions on vessels and entities related to Iran [2] - Indian Ambassador to Russia Vinay Kumar said that despite US pressure, New Delhi will continue to buy Russian oil. On August 21st, the foreign ministers of Russia and India will discuss strengthening strategic partnership in Moscow. Kumar emphasized that India won't consider an embargo on Russian oil for reasons of national security, economy, energy interests, and the energy needs of its 1.4 billion people [2] Investment Logic - The hope of a Russia - Ukraine peace agreement on August 27th is slim. If the situation remains unchanged, India will face an additional 25% tariff, which will impact its economy and oil demand and cause a downward revision of its oil demand [2] Strategy - The short - term oil price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [3] Risk - Downside risks include the US relaxing sanctions on Russian oil and macro black - swan events [3] - Upside risks include the US tightening sanctions on Russian oil and large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle East conflicts [3]

美国能源信息局周三公布的数据显示，上周美国原油库存大幅减少超600万桶，显著高于预期值。与此同 时，英国石油公司表示，其位于美国印第安纳州的一家炼油厂运营受到洪水影响，可能会对原油生产造成 压力，以上消息推动国际油价周三显著上涨。截至收盘，纽约商品交易所9月交货的轻质原油期货价格收于 每桶63.21美元，涨幅为1.38%；10月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格收于每桶66.84美元，涨幅为1.60%。 当地时间周三，美联储7月货币政策会议纪要公布。纪要显示，美联储官员对美国通胀、就业以及特朗普政 府的关税政策影响的看法都出现了分歧，两名主张降息的美联储官员对维持利率不变的决定投下了反对 票。这份会议纪要令市场对于美联储未来降息路径进一步持观望态度，美国三大股指周三涨跌不一。截至 收盘，道指上涨0.04%，标普500指数下跌0.24%，纳指跌幅为0.67%。 投资者担心美联储货币政策的不确定性会影响目前估值偏高的芯片股及科技股走势，引发抛售，英伟达股 价盘中一度下跌超3%。截至收盘，英特尔股价下跌近7%，亚马逊、苹果公司股价跌幅都超过1%。 最新财报引发投资者担忧 20日塔吉特股价大跌超6% 美国零售商塔吉特周三公 ...

Group 1 - The ten-year U.S. Treasury yield has slightly increased, leading to a rise in the U.S. dollar index and a decline in international gold prices, which have reached their lowest level in over two weeks [1] - As of the close, the December gold futures price on the New York Commodity Exchange settled at $3358.7 per ounce, reflecting a decrease of 0.57% [1] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have also dropped, with certain brands reporting a price of 979 RMB per gram for 999 gold [1] Group 2 - The price of 999 gold jewelry is reported at 979 RMB per gram, while 999.9 gold is priced at 989 RMB per gram [2][3] - Platinum jewelry is priced at 470 RMB per gram, and various gold investment products are listed at lower prices, such as 874 RMB per gram for investment gold bars [2][3] - International oil prices have decreased, with light crude oil futures for September closing at $62.35 per barrel, down 1.69%, and Brent crude for October at $65.79 per barrel, down 1.22% [3]

Market News and Important Data - The price of light - sweet crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $1.07 to $62.35 per barrel, a decline of 1.69%; the price of Brent crude oil futures for October delivery on London dropped 81 cents to $65.79 per barrel, a decline of 1.22%. The SC crude oil main contract closed down 0.87% at 481 yuan per barrel [1] - The spokesman for the Commander - in - Chief of the Iraqi Armed Forces said that the withdrawal of the US - led international coalition from Iraq was "an achievement of the government", and Iraq was capable of combating terrorism and maintaining national security and stability without external assistance [1] - US Treasury Secretary Besent plans to raise tariffs on India for purchasing Russian oil, stating that India's arbitrage through Russian oil is unacceptable [1] - Germany's economy ministry said that the oil transportation route from Russia's Friendship Pipeline to Kazakhstan was briefly interrupted due to Ukraine's attack on relevant infrastructure [1] - If the US maintains higher tariffs on India than on other Asian markets, it will pose risks to Fitch's forecast of India's 6.5% economic growth rate this fiscal year. The US imposed a 25% reciprocal tariff on India on August 7, and another 25% tariff will take effect on August 27. Fitch believes that India's IT service companies and domestic - focused industries will be minimally affected, but higher tariffs will pressure Indian companies' operating performance and may bring downward risks to domestic prices of products like steel and chemicals [1] Investment Logic - Before the Russia - US summit, Ukraine has recently increased its attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, including key pumping stations of the Friendship Pipeline and several major Russian refineries. The attack has led to the interruption of the southern line of the Friendship Pipeline, stopping Russia's crude oil transportation of about 200,000 barrels per day to Hungary and Slovakia. The drone attack on the Ryazan refinery in Russia has also caused its shutdown, affecting crude oil processing volume and refined oil exports. The tense situation between Russia and Ukraine still has a significant impact on the oil market [2] Strategy - Oil prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term and bearish in the medium term [3] Risks - Downside risks: The US relaxes sanctions on Russian oil, and macro black - swan events occur [3] - Upside risks: The US intensifies sanctions on Russian oil, and large - scale supply disruptions occur due to conflicts in the Middle East [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the mixed performance of U.S. stock indices, with the Dow Jones reaching a historical closing high despite pressures from rising bond yields and disappointing earnings from Home Depot [1] - Home Depot reported Q2 revenue and earnings per share for fiscal year 2025 below expectations but maintained its full-year guidance, resulting in a stock price increase of over 3% [1] - The Dow Jones increased by 0.02%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell by 0.59% and 1.46%, respectively, indicating a divergence in market performance [1] Group 2 - European stock indices collectively rose, driven by optimistic investor sentiment regarding a potential peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, with significant gains in retail, non-essential consumer goods, beverages, and automotive sectors [2] - The FTSE 100 index in the UK reached a historical closing high, reflecting strong performance in the European market [2] Group 3 - International oil prices declined as investors anticipated a de-escalation of the Eastern European geopolitical conflict, leading to expectations of increased supply from Russia [3] - The price of light crude oil futures for September delivery closed at $62.35 per barrel, down 1.69%, while Brent crude oil futures for October delivery closed at $65.79 per barrel, down 1.22% [3] Group 4 - International gold prices fell to a two-week low as investors awaited comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, with expectations of a cautious stance on interest rate cuts [4] - The price of December gold futures closed at $3358.7 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.57% [4]

Core Viewpoint - International oil prices experienced a decline on the 19th, with significant drops in both WTI and Brent crude oil futures [1] Group 1 - As of the close on the 19th, the price of light crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by $1.07, settling at $62.35 per barrel, representing a decrease of 1.69% [1] - The price of Brent crude oil futures for October delivery on the London market decreased by $0.81, closing at $65.79 per barrel, with a decline of 1.22% [1]

Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 62 cents, closing at $63.42 per barrel, a gain of 0.99%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for October delivery rose 75 cents, closing at $66.60 per barrel, a gain of 1.14%. The main contract of SC crude oil closed up 0.70% at 489 yuan per barrel [1] - After the meeting between US President Trump and Russian President Putin, Trump said there was no plan to impose tariffs on China for buying Russian oil. He might consider the issue in two or three weeks [1] - Trump interrupted his meeting with European leaders and called Putin to arrange a meeting between Putin and Zelensky, with the location to be determined [1] - Ukraine will promise to buy $100 billion worth of US weapons with European funding and reach a $50 billion agreement with US to co - produce drones with Ukrainian companies [1] - After Ukraine attacked a pipeline transformer station, Russia's oil supply to Hungary was interrupted [1] - Multiple Palestinian factions, including Hamas, agreed to the latest cease - fire proposal from Egypt and Qatar in the Gaza Strip [1] Investment Logic - Although the US - Russia talks have advanced the negotiation, the secondary sanctions on India for Russian oil have not been clearly cancelled. India will impose additional secondary tariffs on August 27, and the Russia - Ukraine negotiation and India's decision need continuous attention [2] Strategy - Oil prices will fluctuate in a short - term range and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [3]