Core Insights - German consumers' willingness to buy is on the rise, indicating a positive shift in household sentiment [1] Group 1 - Household sentiment in Germany has increased for the second consecutive month, suggesting improving consumer confidence [1]

Core Insights - U.S. consumers exhibited a significant decline in economic confidence during November, influenced by factors such as the government shutdown, weak hiring, and persistent inflation [1] Economic Impact - The government shutdown has contributed to a decrease in consumer confidence, indicating potential challenges for economic recovery [1] - Weak hiring trends have further exacerbated concerns among consumers regarding the overall economic outlook [1] - Stubborn inflation continues to be a pressing issue, affecting consumer sentiment and spending behavior [1]

Well, the holidays shopping season is well underway. Consumers are expected to spend more than a trillion dollars in retail sales in November and December for the first time ever. That's a gain of around 4% from last year.That's according to NRF's annual holiday forecast. And joining us right now is Matthew Sheay. He is National Retail Federation's president and CEO.And uh Matt, thank you for being here today. um this increase in spending that we're seeing, is this a sign of consumer confidence or a sign of ...

Market Overview - Market indices experienced a positive trading session, with the Dow increasing by 664 points (+1.43%) and the small-cap Russell 2000 gaining +2.14% [3] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq also saw gains of +0.91% and +0.67% respectively, indicating a rebound from recent lows [3] Economic Indicators - Case-Shiller Home Prices for September rose by +1.3%, slightly below the previous month's revised figure of +1.4%, marking the fourth consecutive month where home prices lagged behind inflation [4] - All 20 cities surveyed reported month-over-month declines in home prices, with year-over-year increases led by Chicago (+5.5%), New York City (+5.2%), and Boston (+4.1%) [5] - Pending Home Sales increased by +1.9% month-over-month in October, improving from a prior month’s upwardly revised +0.10%, although still down -0.40% year-over-year [6] Consumer and Business Sentiment - The Consumer Confidence index dropped significantly to 88.7 in November from 95.5, the lowest level since April [7] - Business Inventories for August remained unchanged at 0.0%, marking the third consecutive month without change, indicating a potential need for increased production in the future [8] Company Earnings Reports - Urban Outfitters reported earnings of $1.28 per share, surpassing the consensus estimate of $1.19, with revenues of $1.53 billion, driven by a strong performance in its flagship brand [9] - Dell Technologies reported Q3 earnings of $2.59 per share, exceeding expectations, but revenues fell short at $27.01 billion compared to the anticipated $27.27 billion [10] - Hewlett Packard's shares declined by -5% following a revenue miss, reporting earnings of 93 cents per share against a projected $15.02 billion in sales, which came in at $14.64 billion [11]

Market Overview - Market indices began flat but rose due to expectations of easing Fed funds rates, with Kevin Hassett being a frontrunner for Fed Chair [1] - The Dow increased by 664 points (+1.43%), while the Russell 2000 saw a gain of +2.14%, S&P 500 rose +0.91%, and Nasdaq increased +0.67% [2] Housing Market Data - Case-Shiller Home Prices for September rose by +1.3%, following a revised +1.4% the previous month, marking the fourth consecutive month where home prices lagged behind inflation [3][4] - Pending Home Sales increased by +1.9% month over month in October, up from a revised +0.10% the prior month, although still down -0.40% year over year [5] Economic Indicators - Consumer Confidence index dropped significantly to 88.7 from 95.5, the lowest since April [6] - Business Inventories for August remained unchanged at 0.0%, marking the third consecutive month without change [7] Earnings Reports - Urban Outfitters (URBN) reported earnings of $1.28 per share, exceeding expectations of $1.19, with revenues of $1.53 billion [9] - Dell Technologies (DELL) reported Q3 earnings of $2.59 per share, beating estimates, but revenues of $27.01 billion fell short of expectations [10] - Hewlett Packard (HPQ) shares fell -5% due to a revenue miss, reporting earnings of 93 cents per share against expectations, with sales of $14.64 billion below projections [11]

Economic Overview - The PPI report for September indicates that wholesale prices are rising less than expected, suggesting a potential cooling of inflation [1] - Consumer confidence has hit its lowest level since April, raising concerns about the labor market [1][11] - Retail sales numbers have softened, following a previous gain of 610 million [1][3] Inflation and Federal Reserve - The Atlanta Fed's growth estimate is at 4%, supported by strong consumer spending and capital expenditures [3][7] - Commodity prices are near a 52-week low, and energy prices are moderating, contributing to a positive inflation outlook [4] - The Fed is expected to respond to the improving inflation outlook and the current rates being above neutral [4][9] Labor Market Insights - The labor market has shown signs of weakness, with significant downward revisions in job numbers for 2023 [6] - Concerns exist regarding college graduates struggling to find jobs, attributed to a slowing job market and the impact of AI [11][13] - Small businesses continue to show high confidence levels, which are crucial for job creation [12] Capital Expenditures and Future Outlook - Capital spending has seen a 15% increase in the first half of the year, the best performance since 2011, which typically leads to hiring [13] - Optimism around the administration's policies on capital expensing is contributing to an investment boom [7] - A forecast suggests that the labor market will improve for new graduates by 2026 [14]

Morning. We finally got the PPI report for September. It showed wholesale prices rising less than expected.It's a sign that inflation may be cooling, but concerns are still brewing over the consumer. Confidence hitting its lowest level since April and elevated concerns about the jobs picture. We also got a softer retail sales number this morning.Where does that leave the Fed. Where does it leave the economy. Joining us now, Joe Levia.He is counselor to the Treasury Secretary. And Joe, it's great to have you ...

Market Overview - The supply of homes for sale has increased by approximately 15% compared to a year ago, indicating a shift in the housing market dynamics [2] - In September, around 85,000 US sellers removed their homes from the market, marking a 28% increase from the previous year, the fastest pace in nearly a decade [1] Consumer Confidence and Labor Market - The Conference Board's consumer confidence index fell to 88.7%, a decline of nearly seven points from the prior month, the lowest since April, and below expectations [3] - Private payrolls data from ADP indicated an average loss of 13,500 jobs per week over the past four weeks, suggesting potential labor market challenges ahead of the Fed's December meeting [3] Federal Reserve and Economic Policy - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent mentioned that President Trump may announce a new Fed chair by Christmas, with five strong candidates currently in consideration [5] - Kevin Hasset, Director of the National Economic Council, is emerging as a frontrunner for the Fed chair position, expected to align with Trump's preferences on interest rates [6] Economic Activity and Inflation - The upcoming Fed's Beige Book is anticipated to show little change in overall economic activity, with some districts reporting slight declines and others modest growth [10] - Inflation is expected to moderate, but high input costs continue to pressure businesses, indicating mixed consumer spending patterns [10] Company-Specific Insights - Deere is facing headwinds due to waning demand for machinery and lower grain prices, although recent trade deals may provide some benefits [12] - Lee Auto, a Chinese EV maker, has seen its US-listed shares decline over 20% year-to-date, attributed to a slowing Chinese economy and increased competition [14]

Core Insights - Consumer confidence fell significantly in November, reaching a level of 88.7, down from an upwardly revised 95.5 in October, and below the expected 93.4 [1][12] - The decline in consumer confidence is attributed to concerns over prices, inflation, tariffs, trade, and political issues, including the federal government shutdown [2][12] Consumer Sentiment - Nearly 25% of American households are living paycheck to paycheck, indicating financial strain among consumers [3] - Consumer confidence decreased across nearly all income levels, with only those earning less than $15,000 showing an improvement, although they remain the least optimistic group [5] - The overall tone of consumer write-in responses was more negative in November compared to October, with mentions of the labor market easing slightly but still prominent [5] Demographic Insights - Confidence declined among political groups, with independent voters experiencing the sharpest drop [6] - Younger consumers under 35 showed improved confidence, while those aged 55 and older remained the most pessimistic [6] Economic Expectations - Consumers' inflation expectations for the next year rose to a median of 4.8%, with the Expectations Index remaining below 80 for ten consecutive months, indicating potential recession signals [8] - All components of the Expectations Index worsened in November, particularly pessimism regarding business conditions six months ahead [11] Implications for Monetary Policy - The significant drop in consumer confidence may pressure the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts in December and beyond, as indicated by economic analysts [13]

Core Insights - Inflation is significantly impacting US incomes, comparable to the 2008 Great Recession, which may reduce consumer spending power ahead of the holiday shopping season [1] - The median income growth for individuals aged 25 to 54 is only 1.6% when adjusted for inflation, indicating weak income growth [1][10] - The unemployment rate increased to 4.4% in September, the highest since October 2021, affecting income gains for young workers [6][13] Income and Spending Trends - Households are ending the year with stagnant income growth and flat bank balances after adjusting for inflation [2] - Approximately half of workers aged 50 to 54 have experienced an earnings loss when accounting for inflation [8] - Consumers are facing a holiday season with limited budgets due to low income growth, despite strong stock market gains that are unevenly distributed [11] Inflation and Economic Indicators - US inflation rose by 3% year-on-year in September, the fastest rate since January, while wholesale inflation increased by only 0.3% [12][14] - Retail sales saw a nominal increase of 0.2% in September, but actual spending fell by 0.1% due to a 0.3% rise in prices [12] - Consumer confidence dropped to 88.7 in November, the lowest since April, with a significant decline in perceptions of business conditions and job availability [14]