Global Economic Trends - The former first world is largely becoming the descending world [2] - Much of the former third world is now the ascending world [2] - Edelman's numbers correlate with GDP figures and visible improvements in countries like Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, India, and China [1] Data Reliability - There are potential concerns regarding the accuracy of Edelman's numbers for specific regions, such as Nigeria and Kenya [1]

U.S. Stock Market Performance - U.S. stocks traded lower, with the Dow Jones down approximately 1.5% on Friday, closing at 43,488.38, while the NASDAQ fell 2.38% to 20,620.55 and the S&P 500 dropped 1.76% to 6,227.60 [1] - Consumer staples shares increased by 0.9%, while consumer discretionary stocks decreased by 3.4% on the same day [1] Amazon Financial Results - Amazon.com Inc. shares fell around 8% after reporting second-quarter net sales of $167.7 billion, which is a 13% year-over-year increase, surpassing the Street consensus estimate of $161.9 billion [2] Commodity Market Trends - Oil prices decreased by 2% to $67.86, while gold prices increased by 1.4% to $3,396.30. Silver rose by 0.6% to $36.945, and copper increased by 1% to $4.3995 [5] European Market Performance - European shares declined, with the eurozone's STOXX 600 falling 1.79%, Spain's IBEX 35 Index down 1.83%, London's FTSE 100 down 0.80%, Germany's DAX 40 declining 2.36%, and France's CAC 40 falling 2.73% [6] Asian Market Performance - Asian markets closed lower, with Japan's Nikkei 225 down 0.66%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng down 1.07%, China's Shanghai Composite down 0.37%, and India's BSE Sensex down 0.72% [7] Notable Stock Movements - Tenon Medical, Inc. shares surged 75% to $1.7500 following the acquisition of sacroiliac joint-specific assets from SiVantage [9] - Performant Healthcare, Inc. shares increased by 114% to $7.59 after an acquisition agreement for $670 million [9] - Alphatec Holdings, Inc. shares rose 26% to $13.36 after raising FY2025 sales guidance above estimates [9] - Fluor Corporation shares dropped 31% to $39.35 after reporting second-quarter results below estimates and lowering FY25 adjusted EPS guidance [9] - Silexion Therapeutics Corp shares fell 35% to $9.75 after announcing the exercise of warrants for $1.8 million gross proceeds [9] - Insperity, Inc. shares decreased by 23% to $45.98 after reporting worse-than-expected quarterly results and issuing weak guidance [9] Economic Indicators - U.S. construction spending declined by 0.4% to an annualized rate of $2.136 trillion in June [11] - The ISM manufacturing PMI fell to 48 in July from 49 in June, missing market estimates of 49.5 [11] - The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index slipped to 61.7 in July from a preliminary reading of 61.8 [11] - The S&P Global manufacturing PMI was revised higher to 49.8 in July from a preliminary reading of 49.5 [11]

Societal Insights - Rankings variations between measures can reveal societal characteristics [1] - Countries with very old or young populations often perform better when incomes are adjusted for hours worked [1]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a negative skew in economic data surprises across developed markets (DMs) [2][4]. Core Insights - The GS Macro Data Assessment (MAP) Surprise Indices have turned negative across DMs over the last several weeks, indicating a decline in economic performance relative to expectations [2][4]. - The Global Financial Conditions Index (FCI) has eased primarily due to movements in equities and credit spreads, suggesting tighter financial conditions impacting growth [9][30]. - The Current Activity Indicator (CAI) for June shows a global value of +1.9%, with emerging markets performing better than developed markets [49][46]. Summary by Sections Economic Indicators - The MAP surprise indices reflect a negative trend in economic indicators across multiple developed countries, suggesting a downturn in economic activity [2][4]. - The CAI for June indicates a +1.9% growth globally, with emerging markets like India and China showing stronger performance compared to developed markets [49][46]. Financial Conditions - The Global ex Russia FCI has eased, primarily influenced by equity markets and credit spreads, indicating a tightening of financial conditions that could affect GDP growth [9][30]. - The report highlights that the FCI levels across various countries have shown significant changes, with notable tightening in regions like China and Turkey [37][30]. GDP Forecasts - The report presents changes in GDP forecasts for 2025, with Vietnam projected to grow by 1.9%, while the US shows a downward adjustment [92][93]. - The GDP forecast adjustments reflect a broader trend of declining growth expectations across developed markets compared to emerging markets [92][93].

Economic Indicators Reliability - Funding cuts are impacting the reliability of core economic indicators produced by the Bureau of Labour Statistics [1] - Congress mandates the Bureau of Labour Statistics to produce core economic indicators [1]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The China Current Activity Indicator (CAI) decreased to +4.3% month-on-month annualized seasonally adjusted in May from +4.6% in April, indicating a slight slowdown in economic activity [7] - The weakening in CAI was primarily driven by the manufacturing sector, suggesting challenges in this area [12] - The import-implied domestic demand proxy indicates largely stable growth in recent months, reflecting resilience in domestic consumption [9] - The Financial Conditions Index (FCI) eased in May, mainly due to foreign exchange depreciation against a trade-weighted basket, which may impact liquidity conditions [27][24] - The report anticipates a faster pace of government bond issuance in the coming months, with an additional RMB1 trillion quota expected to be approved [36] Summary by Relevant Sections Economic Indicators - The CAI fell to +4.3% in May, down from +4.6% in April, indicating a deceleration in economic momentum [7] - Manufacturing and construction growth proxies both declined in May, highlighting sector-specific weaknesses [13] Domestic Demand - The import-implied domestic demand proxy suggests stable growth, indicating that domestic consumption remains resilient despite external pressures [9] Financial Conditions - The FCI eased in May, primarily driven by FX depreciation, which may affect overall economic liquidity [27][24] - The growth impact of FCI impulse is expected to turn positive from Q2 onwards, suggesting potential recovery in economic activity [12] Government Policy - The report notes a slight tightening in the domestic macro policy proxy in May, driven by a narrower fiscal deficit, which may influence future economic stimulus measures [35] - An increase in government bond issuance is projected, with expectations of an additional RMB1 trillion quota to be approved [36]

Economic Indicators - Global hard data shows resilience while soft data normalizes, indicating a stable economic environment[3] - The Global Financial Conditions Index (FCI) eased primarily due to equities, short rates, and credit spreads, reflecting tighter financial conditions[8] - The Current Activity Indicator (CAI) for May shows a global increase of +1.6% month-on-month annualized, with emerging markets leading at +3.6%[12][47] GDP Forecasts - Goldman Sachs revised its GDP forecast for 2025, with notable increases in Japan and the Euro Area, while Canada saw a decrease[10][93] - The change in GDP forecast since 60 days ago shows Taiwan with an increase of +1.9 percentage points, while Turkey increased by +1.2 percentage points in the last week[10][93] Inflation Trends - The trimmed core inflation forecast for 2025 indicates a decrease across several regions, with Turkey showing the largest increase of +1.9 percentage points[88][90] - The inflation forecast for 2026 also reflects similar trends, with notable adjustments in various countries, including a decrease in the UK and Canada[90][91] Labor Market Insights - The jobs-workers gap has shown significant changes since December 2019, with the US and UK experiencing notable declines[21][70] - Wage trackers indicate a steady increase in wage growth across G10 economies, with the US showing a composition-adjusted increase[63][64]

[Music] Greetings everyone. It is uh in the know day as well employment Friday uh and uh we have a lot to discuss as usual we'll we'll go through fiscal policy monetary policy economic indicators market indicators and uh we'll talk a little bit about uh some real breakthroughs in terms of uh the market recognizing how much innovation is taking place. Um so uh starting w with fiscal policy and I'll I'll go through and and just uh make a few observations before we flip to charts.So um on fiscal policy, well t ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The growth signal from US soft data has improved, indicating a better trade policy outlook [2][4] - The Current Activity Indicator (CAI) for the US shows a value of +1.6% for May, reflecting a positive trend in economic activity [14][50] - The global CAI has ticked up to +2.3% in May, suggesting a recovery in economic conditions [14][50] - Emerging markets, particularly India, show strong growth signals with a CAI of +7.6% in April [14][50] Summary by Sections Economic Indicators - The report highlights improvements in soft data indicators, particularly in the US, which are expected to positively influence economic growth [2][4] - The Financial Conditions Index (FCI) has eased, primarily due to short-term interest rates, indicating a more favorable financial environment for growth [9][28] Current Activity Indicator (CAI) - The CAI for various regions shows positive growth signals, with the US at +1.6% and global CAI at +2.3% for May [14][50] - Developed markets show a CAI of +1.0%, while emerging markets are significantly higher at +4.1% [14][50] GDP Forecasts - The report indicates a change in GDP forecasts for 2025, with notable increases for India and the US, reflecting stronger economic performance [12][97] - The global GDP forecast has been adjusted, with a focus on emerging markets showing resilience and growth potential [12][97] Inflation and Wage Trends - Wage trackers indicate underlying wage growth across G10 economies, which may influence inflation dynamics [22][69] - The report discusses trimmed core inflation measures, which provide insights into underlying price pressures in the economy [62][94]

USA: GS Economic Indicators Update (Rindels) 7 April 2025 | 1:52PM EDT Please find an update of our proprietary economic indicators below. The data behind these exhibits can be downloaded here. Interactive charts can be found on our living page here. The nominal GS US Financial Conditions Index tightened by 42.5bp to 99.95 over the last week, mostly due to lower equity prices, and the real GS US FCI tightened by 50.2bp to 99.62: Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Alec P ...