The CNBC NRF retail report is out right now. Steve Leeman joins us with the numbers. And Steve, what's the news.Good morning, Becky. Consumers hit the pause button in September after two months of uh good gains. According to the CNBC NRF Retail Monitor, hopes are that it's a pause that refreshes ahead of this approaching holiday season.Never too early to start thinking about that. The monitor, which is powered by real credit card spending data from Affinity Solutions, dropping 0.7% for total retail sales XO ...

Core Insights - Alcohol sales in the U.S. are declining, with a Gallup survey indicating that only 54% of adults consume alcohol, the lowest in nearly 90 years [2] - The decline is attributed to health concerns, economic factors, and the rise of alternative beverages [3] Industry Overview - Economic factors such as inflation and rising living costs are making consumers more selective in discretionary spending [3] - The availability of alternatives like cannabis and nonalcoholic beverages is providing consumers with more choices [3] Company Performance - Constellation Brands reported better-than-expected fiscal second-quarter results but lowered its full-year guidance due to macroeconomic challenges [4] - The company noted significant volatility in sales, particularly in high Hispanic Zip Code areas, which are crucial for its Modelo brand [5] - 80% of surveyed consumers expressed concern about the socioeconomic environment, with 70% specifically worried about personal finances [6] Consumer Behavior - There is a noted increase in brand loyalty for Constellation's products, particularly for Corona and Modelo among Hispanic consumers [7] - The company has a higher share of Gen Z consumers compared to the industry average [8] Financial Outlook - Despite current headwinds, the company remains confident in its long-term growth trajectory [9] - The expected tariff impact on Constellation's beer business is about $70 million, with an additional $20 million on the wine business [9] - Constellation's stock has decreased by 35% this year and nearly 41% from the previous year [10] Competitor Insights - Boston Beer has also faced challenges, with its stock down nearly 27% this year [11] - The company sees long-term growth opportunities in nonbeer alcoholic beverages, which represent over 85% of its volume [12] - Anheuser-Busch InBev reported a decline in volumes, particularly in China, despite revenue and profit increases [13]

Gold hit $4,000 an ounce for the first time on Tuesday, extending its record run amid heightened economic uncertainty and surging interest from everyday investors. https://t.co/qhlxFZL0Rc ...

Core Insights - The Zacks Leisure and Recreation Products industry is experiencing growth due to increased health and fitness awareness, leading to solid demand for fitness products and outdoor recreation items [1][4]. Industry Overview - The industry includes companies that provide a range of recreational products and services, such as amusement products, swimming pools, marine products, and outdoor equipment [2]. - Economic growth is a key driver for the industry, with consumer demand influenced by a healthy labor market, rising wages, and increasing disposable income [2]. Trends Impacting the Industry - The golf sector is thriving, with rising demand for golf equipment driven by technological advancements and increased participation among younger demographics [3]. - There is robust demand for fitness-related products, particularly home workout equipment and digital fitness platforms, as consumers prioritize health and convenience [4]. Economic Context - The U.S. economy is facing mixed conditions in 2025, with resilient consumer spending but challenges from inflation and higher interest rates [5]. - Despite a strong labor market, there are signs of cooling in certain sectors, contributing to a cautious economic outlook [5]. Industry Performance - The Zacks Leisure and Recreation Products industry ranks 56, placing it in the top 23% of over 243 Zacks industries, indicating positive near-term prospects [6][7]. - The industry has underperformed the S&P 500, with a growth of 16% compared to the S&P 500's 19.5% increase over the past year [10]. Valuation Metrics - The industry trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 25.65X, higher than the S&P 500's 23.55X and the sector's 18.45X [13]. Notable Companies - **Peloton Interactive, Inc. (PTON)**: The company reported 552,000 paid app subscriptions and $607 million in total revenues, exceeding guidance. Fiscal 2026 earnings are expected to rise by 123.3% [16][17]. - **Topgolf Callaway Brands Corp. (MODG)**: The company is benefiting from strong consumer demand in golf equipment and effective cost-saving initiatives, with a positive outlook for ongoing operations [22]. - **Acushnet Holdings Corp. (GOLF)**: The company continues to see steady demand for its Titleist golf equipment, with a projected 2% increase in earnings for 2025 [23][24].

Core Insights - Retirement is increasingly viewed as a time requiring financial prudence due to high inflation and economic uncertainty, prompting older adults to consider more frugal lifestyles and additional income sources [2] Cost-Cutting Strategies - Downsizing housing can lead to significant savings on property taxes, utilities, and maintenance costs, especially for empty nesters or singles [4] - Cooking at home instead of dining out can substantially reduce food expenses [6] - Meal planning helps minimize food waste, which the USDA estimates costs households around $1,500 annually [8] - Buying food in bulk from wholesalers can provide significant discounts and savings [9] - Growing personal vegetables can lower grocery bills while promoting healthier eating habits [10] Income Generation Strategies - Older adults are encouraged to explore side hustles or selling unused items to create additional income streams [2]

Core Insights - Constellation Brands slightly beat expectations in its second-quarter earnings report despite a downturn in the alcohol market, leading to mixed sentiments among shareholders [1] Financial Performance - Net sales for the quarter were $2.48 billion, down from $2.92 billion a year ago, but slightly above the expected $2.46 billion [6] - The company reported a profit of $466 million for the quarter [6] - Overall beer sales declined by 7% year-over-year, while revenue from the wine and spirits category fell by 19% year-over-year, following a 21% drop in the previous quarter [6] Market Challenges - Constellation faces significant challenges, including a 50% import tax on aluminum cans, which does not apply to bottled beer [2] - Economic uncertainty has led to reduced discretionary spending, particularly among Latino consumers, who make up about half of Constellation's customer base [2] - Gen Z's disinterest in alcohol consumption is evident, with only 54% of US adults reporting alcohol consumption, the lowest level in nearly 90 years [2] Competitive Landscape - Michelob Ultra has overtaken Modelo as America's top-selling beer, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [3] - The company's share price has decreased by approximately 37% this year, with a 17% drop occurring in September alone [3] - Analysts have expressed skepticism about finding positive catalysts for US beer trends, leading to a downgrade of the company's stock by Barclays [3] Industry Trends - The craft beer market is experiencing a downturn, with more craft breweries closing than opening in the past 18 months, a trend not seen in over 20 years [4]

Well, as you know by now, there is no official jobs report today because of the government shutdown. But we found another way to try and get a look at employment in the month of September. We're going to call this our own squawk survey.Evans S is the CEO of Aura Intelligence. That's a platform for workforce analytics. Bill Dunlberg is the chief economist at the National Federation of Independent Businesses.Both have real data on the state of jobs in this country. And of course, we have our very own senior e ...

Market Trends & Economic Outlook - US stock market is on track for five straight days of gains, with the Dow up approximately 025% [1] - Bond market indicates a lack of concern about risk, with the 30-year Treasury yield well below 5% [2] - The labor market is showing signs of slowing, with muted hiring [1] - The market is pricing in another 25 basis point rate cut in December [1] Company Performance & Sector Analysis - Semiconductors are outperforming, with Intel up almost 4% [1] - Tesla's Q3 deliveries set a record at just over 497000 cars, but shares are down about 4% [2] - DraftKings is considered undervalued, trading at 19 times earnings with 75% earnings growth [5] - AI optimism is boosting stocks, with OpenAI valued at $500 billion in a secondary sale [3] Investment Opportunities & Potential Risks - Foreign direct investment (FDI) of $17 trillion and AI tech spending are acting as stimulus programs [2] - Circular financing in the AI sector may end poorly in the long term [3] - Cannabis stocks are rallying due to potential rescheduling, with Advisor Shares Pure US Cannabis ETF (MSOS) specializing in US multi-state operators [19][25]

Core Viewpoint - The content emphasizes the importance of conducting personal due diligence and consulting competent advisors before making any financial decisions, particularly in the context of investments and trading [1]. Group 1 - The website provides general news, personal analysis, and third-party content intended for educational and research purposes [1]. - It explicitly states that the information does not constitute any recommendation or advice for investment actions [1]. - Users are advised to perform their own research and consider their financial situation before making decisions [1]. Group 2 - The website includes information about complex financial instruments such as cryptocurrencies and contracts for difference (CFDs), which carry a high risk of losing money [1]. - It encourages users to understand how these instruments work and the associated risks before investing [1].

Core Insights - Graham Stephan, known for conservative financial advice, has allocated 15% of his net worth to Bitcoin through the IBIT ETF, indicating a shift towards cryptocurrency among traditional investors [1][2][3] Investment Strategy - Stephan's disciplined approach to cryptocurrency involves setting clear boundaries, expressing concern if his Bitcoin allocation exceeds 25-30% of his total portfolio [3][4] - He views Bitcoin as a hedge against economic uncertainty rather than a speculative investment, positioning part of his portfolio for scenarios where traditional assets may underperform [5][4] Portfolio Composition - The conservative foundation of Stephan's portfolio includes 20% in cash, with the remainder likely in real estate and traditional investments, providing stability before incorporating more speculative assets [6]