Mortgage Rates Overview - The average rate on a 30-year U.S. mortgage increased to 6.16%, slightly up from 6.15% last week, and down from 6.93% a year ago [1][2] - The average rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose to 5.46% from 5.44% the previous week, compared to 6.14% a year ago [2] Influencing Factors - Mortgage rates are influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, bond market expectations for the economy and inflation, and generally follow the trajectory of the 10-year Treasury yield [2][4] - The 10-year yield was at 4.17% at midday Thursday, with mortgage rates having been mostly steady since dropping to 6.17% on October 30, 2024 [3] Market Dynamics - The average rate on a 30-year mortgage ended last year nearly a percentage point lower than at the start of 2025, which helped boost home shoppers' purchasing power [5] - Despite lower mortgage rates, existing home sales in November slowed compared to the previous year for the first time since May, indicating a potential decline in sales for the year [6] Housing Affordability - The recent decline in mortgage rates has benefited home shoppers, with the median U.S. monthly housing payment falling to $2,365, a 4.7% decrease from the same period last year [7] - However, the housing market remains challenging for many potential homeowners, particularly first-time buyers, due to high home prices and stagnant wage growth [8]

Mortgage Rates Overview - The 30-year fixed mortgage rate has decreased to 6.24%, down from 6.25% last week, marking the lowest level since September 2024 [1] - The current mortgage rates for various loan types are as follows: 30-year at 6.24%, 15-year at 5.54%, and 30-year jumbo at 6.42% [2] Economic Context - The U.S. economy expanded by 4.3% in the summer months, which typically influences mortgage rates positively [5] - The national median family income for 2025 is projected at $104,200, with the median home price at $409,200, leading to a monthly payment of $2,013, which is about 23% of the typical family's income [3] Future Projections - Analysts expect the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate to potentially fall below 6% for the first time since summer 2022, with estimates as low as 5.5% due to anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts [6] - The Mortgage Bankers Association predicts that mortgage rates will remain around 6.4% throughout 2026, citing a growing economy and persistent inflation [6]

[Music] New Year resolve. Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto market rallies despite geopolitical unrest and the promise of another crazy year courtesy of Donald Trump. What to watch as 2026 gets underway. We break down the key crypto catalysts that could get the market moving again. And we'll bring you the tweets of the week, more TA from Lewis, and the conclusion of our portfolio competition. This is the Coin Bureau News Live. Hello everyone. A very happy new year to you. Uh to you one and all. A very happ ...

Core Viewpoint - Tom Lee predicts the S&P 500 will reach 7,700 by the end of 2026, with a potential 15-20% correction in the latter half of the year [2][3] Market Performance - The market in 2026 is expected to experience volatility characterized by "joy, depression, and rally," influenced by the Federal Reserve's rate policies [3] - Factors contributing to market optimism include the anniversary of tariffs, anticipated Fed rate cuts, and a possible rebound in the ISM index [3] Sector Analysis - Sectors such as energy, financials, and small caps are identified as potential growth areas, with small caps having reached an all-time high in 2025 [4] - Lower interest rates are expected to benefit small caps, with monetary easing and earnings growth acting as tailwinds [4] Broader Market Outlook - Predictions align with a broader market outlook for 2026, emphasizing the importance of stocks with strong earnings growth [5] - Small caps are anticipated to outperform mid and large caps, supported by improving earnings momentum and favorable economic conditions [6] Recent Market Performance - Over the past year, Invesco QQQ Trust and Vanguard S&P 500 ETF have seen increases of 16.89% and 14.74%, respectively [7]

Core Insights - The average rate on a 30-year U.S. mortgage has decreased to 6.15%, the lowest level of 2025, down from 6.18% last week, and significantly lower than the 6.91% average a year ago [1] - The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage also saw a decline, falling to 5.44% from 5.50% the previous week, compared to an average of 6.13% a year ago [2] - The 10-year Treasury yield is currently at 4.14%, slightly down from 4.15% last week, indicating a stable mortgage rate environment [3] Mortgage Rate Influences - Mortgage rates are affected by the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies, bond market expectations regarding the economy and inflation, and generally follow the 10-year Treasury yield [2][4] - The Fed's recent rate cuts, which began in September, have contributed to the easing of mortgage rates since July [3][4] Market Conditions - Home listings have increased significantly compared to 2024, with many sellers lowering their asking prices as homes take longer to sell [5] - Despite the favorable mortgage rates, affordability remains a challenge for first-time buyers, compounded by economic uncertainty [6] Sales Trends - Sales of previously occupied homes rose in November compared to the previous month but showed a decline compared to the same period last year, marking the first slowdown since May [7] - Home sales are down 0.5% for the first 11 months of the year compared to the same timeframe last year, with forecasts suggesting that the average 30-year mortgage rate will remain slightly above 6% next year [7]

Mortgage Rates Overview - The average rate on a 30-year U.S. mortgage fell to 6.15%, down from 6.18% last week, and significantly lower than the 6.91% average a year ago [1] - The average rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages decreased to 5.44% from 5.50%, compared to 6.13% a year ago [1] Influencing Factors - Mortgage rates are influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, bond market expectations for the economy and inflation, and generally follow the 10-year Treasury yield [2] - The 10-year Treasury yield was at 4.14%, slightly down from 4.15% the previous week [2] Recent Trends - The average rate on a 30-year mortgage has been stable since dropping to 6.17% on October 30, the lowest level in over a year [3] - Mortgage rates began to ease in July in anticipation of Federal Reserve rate cuts, which started in September and continued into October [3] Federal Reserve's Role - The Federal Reserve does not set mortgage rates directly, but its short-term rate cuts can signal lower inflation or slower economic growth, influencing long-term Treasury yields and mortgage rates [4] - However, Fed rate cuts do not always lead to lower mortgage rates [4] Market Conditions - Home shoppers with cash or financing at current mortgage rates are in a better position than a year ago, with a significant increase in home listings and many sellers lowering their asking prices [5] - Affordability remains a challenge for first-time buyers, particularly due to economic uncertainty and job market conditions [6] Sales Performance - Sales of previously occupied U.S. homes rose in November compared to the previous month but slowed year-over-year for the first time since May, despite low average long-term mortgage rates [7] - Home sales are down 0.5% for the first 11 months of the year compared to the same period last year, with economists forecasting the average 30-year mortgage rate to remain slightly above 6% next year [7]

Welcome back to Morning Trade Live. It's time for the big picture. So, let's welcome in Cooper Howard, director of fixed income research and strategy, Schwab Center for Financial Research.So, it's a data light week. Coupe, what's on your radar. >> You know, it is a data light week. It's also a pretty light week on a day on a week like this.I don't think that that's too big of a surprise with the holiday coming up and then Friday being a little bit of a slower day. So, I think the big important thing though ...

Core Viewpoint - Analysts project that the U.S. dollar will continue to weaken, potentially by 10% by the end of 2026, following a decline initiated by President Trump's tariff plans in April [1][3]. Group 1: Dollar Weakness and Economic Impact - The dollar has weakened by as much as 10% this year against a basket of foreign currencies, currently down 7% year-to-date [1][2]. - A weaker dollar affects travel costs, import prices, and investment returns for U.S. households and investors, reshaping portfolios and global trade dynamics [3]. - The Federal Reserve's ongoing interest rate cuts contribute to the dollar's weakness, making U.S. debt less attractive [7]. Group 2: Global Economic Context - Despite the dollar's decline, global trade and markets still heavily rely on the U.S. dollar, indicating that the narrative of "de-dollarization" is largely overstated [2][9]. - The structural foundation of dollar dominance remains intact, supported by deep and liquid markets and the global reach of U.S. financial institutions [10][11]. - The recent rally in gold prices has led to discussions about de-dollarization, but central banks' gold accumulation has not significantly reduced their dollar holdings [12][13]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Hedging - Some investors remain cautious about further dollar weakness, which could erode the value of U.S. dollar assets in their portfolios [14]. - The Fed's rate cuts are making it cheaper for investors to buy instruments that hedge against dollar risks, indicating a potential shift in investment strategies [16]. - Analysts are closely monitoring hedging decisions, with indications that the outlook for hedging flows is leaning bearish on the dollar [17].

Key Highlights: Stock futures were flat to slightly higher Sunday evening in a New Year's holiday-shortened week, after Trump and Zelensky held "productive†talks on a Russia-Ukraine peace plan. Last week, US stocks hovered near record highs in thin holiday trade, with the S&P 500 ending little changed and the Nasdaq 100 slipping 0.1% as materials and tech outperformed while consumer discretionary and energy lagged. Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) gained on an AI licensing deal, and precious metals surged to fresh reco ...

Core Viewpoint - The shift in U.S. debt holders from foreign governments to profit-driven private investors poses risks to the stability of the U.S. financial system during market stress [1][2]. Group 1: Changes in Treasury Holdings - Foreign governments represented over 40% of Treasury holdings in the early 2010s, a significant increase from just over 10% in the mid-1990s [2]. - Currently, foreign governments hold less than 15% of the overall Treasury market, despite maintaining similar absolute holdings as 15 years ago [2]. - The total U.S. debt has surpassed $38 trillion, but foreign governments have not increased their Treasury purchases in line with this surge [2]. Group 2: Role of Private Investors - Private investors have filled the gap left by foreign governments, but they are more likely to demand higher returns, leading to increased volatility in rates [3]. - Hedge funds have doubled their presence in the Treasury market over the last four years, raising concerns among U.S. officials [3]. - The Cayman Islands now hold the largest share of U.S. debt outside the country, primarily due to hedge fund activities [3]. Group 3: Market Turbulence and Predictions - Recent shocks in the Treasury market, traditionally a safe haven, have been attributed to hedge fund activities, including a selloff following President Trump's tariffs [4]. - Relying on artificial productivity gains or inflation to manage U.S. debt is predicted to backfire [4]. - A credible plan to control deficits and manage debt is deemed necessary to satisfy bond investors, referred to as "bond vigilantes" [5]. Group 4: Influence of Bond Vigilantes - The upheaval in the bond market following Trump's tariff announcement influenced his decision to moderate aggressive rate policies [6]. - The term "bond vigilantes" highlights the power bond investors have to compel lawmakers to change fiscal policies [5][6].