LIZZY: THIS IS BLOOMBERG DAYBREAK: EUROPE. I'M LIZZY BURDEN. METALS MELTDOWN.GOLD AND SILVER. ASIAN STOCKS AND NASDAQ FUTURES SLUMP ON CONCERNS AROUND AR FUNDING AND VALIDATIONS. THE DOLLAR HOLDS ONTO GAINS AFTER PRESIDENT TRUMP NOMINATED KEVIN WALSH AS OF THE NEXT FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIR.GEOPOLITICAL RISK RECEIPTS AFTER THE U.S. PRESIDENT SAYS WASHINGTON IS TALKING WITH IRAN. HAPPY MONDAY. WELCOME TO FEBRUARY.A LOOK BACK AT PRECIOUS METALS FRIDAY. CONTINUING THIS MORNING, GOLD NEARLY AT $4500. 5500 DOLLARS P ...

Core Viewpoint - The decision by Panama's top court to void CK Hutchison Holdings Ltd.'s contract to operate two ports has been criticized by a pro-Beijing newspaper, which claims the ruling is influenced by US pressure and urges Hong Kong businesses to reconsider investments in Panama [1][2][3]. Group 1: Judicial Independence and Economic Implications - The ruling reflects Panama's lack of judicial independence and its readiness to accommodate US demands, as stated in a commentary from Ta Kung Pao [2]. - The two ports are part of CK Hutchison's proposed sale of 43 global facilities to a consortium that includes China Cosco Shipping Corp., Terminal Investment Ltd., and BlackRock Inc. [2]. - The newspaper calls for Panama to correct the ruling and compensate affected companies, warning that failure to do so could harm economic ties with China and diminish confidence among Chinese enterprises [3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Context and Investment Risks - The article indicates rising tensions between the US and China over the strategic Panama Canal, complicating the ports sale by CK Hutchison, which could generate over $19 billion in cash if completed [4]. - CK Hutchison's decision to invite state-owned Cosco into the buying consortium was seen as a response to US pressure, with the US Secretary of State praising the ruling as a positive development [5][4]. - The commentary suggests that the ruling poses significant risks to global business operations and serves as a warning to investors [9]. Group 3: Strategic Moves and Future Considerations - To mitigate regulatory risks, the involved parties are considering splitting the assets into separate parcels with different ownership structures, allowing Cosco to take larger stakes in ports located in more China-friendly regions [6]. - The commentary criticizes Panama for its military cooperation with the US and for withdrawing from China's Belt and Road Initiative, indicating a shift in diplomatic relations [8]. - Prior to Cosco's involvement, China had threatened investigations into the deal and instructed state-owned enterprises to cease collaboration with the Li family, highlighting the political tensions affecting business operations [10].

Group 1 - Recent fluctuations in gold and silver prices are attributed to rapid increases in international gold prices and severe market overbuying, leading to profit-taking by investors [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange and Shanghai Gold Exchange have issued risk warnings, urging investors to exercise caution in precious metal investments due to unpredictable market conditions [1] - Geopolitical risks remain high, and the potential for a U.S. government shutdown may continue to support market risk aversion, which could sustain gold prices in the short term [1] Group 2 - The current rise in gold prices has surpassed traditional safe-haven trading, indicating a shift in how global risks are priced, now considering structural variables like geopolitical risks and U.S. debt sustainability [2] - Gold prices are projected to reach $6,000 per ounce, although short-term volatility is expected [2] - The outlook for gold may fluctuate in response to U.S. Federal Reserve policies and economic conditions, with potential support for further price increases in the latter half of 2026 [2]

Silver Market Overview - Silver prices have tripled in the past year, rising from around $30 in late January 2025 to over $100 today, driven by its status as a safe haven and hedge against inflation [1] - There is a significant shortage of physical silver, estimated at 95 million ounces in 2025, due to soaring demand for technologies like solar panels and electric vehicles [1] Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to consider silver mining companies as a safer investment compared to investing directly in silver [2] - Mining companies benefit from expanding profit margins as silver prices rise above production costs [3] Hecla Mining Company - Hecla Mining is the largest silver producer in the U.S. and Canada, accounting for 37% of U.S. silver production and 29% in Canada, positioning it favorably in a stable jurisdiction [6] - Hecla's profitability is closely tied to silver price fluctuations, with historical data showing significant margin changes during price spikes [7] - Current profit margins are improving but have not fully aligned with the soaring silver prices; Hecla's Greens Creek mine has low all-in sustaining costs of $11.01 per ounce, making it one of the lowest-cost producers in North America [8]

♪ ANNOUNCER: NEWSMAKERS AND MARKET MOVERS. THIS IS "THE PULSE" WITH FRANCINE LACQUA. FRANCINE: WELL, GOOD MORNING, EVERYONE.WELCOME TO "THE PULSE." I’M FRANCINE LACQUA HERE IN LONDON. AFTER MONTHS OF INTERVIEWS AND EXPECTATION, PRESIDENT TRUMP WILL ANNOUNCE THE NOMINEE. KEVIN WASH WOULD SUCCEED JEROME POWELL WHO HAS BEEN CRITICIZED NOT CUTTING RATES FASTER.PRESIDENT TRUMP HAS BEEN SEARCHING FOR A UNICORN LOYALIST AND IN THE PRESIDENT’S MAGA BASE AND GET PAST THE SENATE CONFIRMIZATION. DOES KEVIN WARSH TICK ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call on Global Commodities and Iran's Oil Market Industry Overview - The report focuses on the oil market dynamics influenced by geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, particularly in the context of military actions and potential negotiations [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Geopolitical Tensions**: The US is increasing military presence in the Middle East while engaging in negotiations with Iran. The expectation is that the US will take actions to limit Iran's nuclear and missile capabilities without provoking a full-scale conflict [1][2]. - **Base Case Scenario**: There is a 70% probability that US/Israeli actions will be limited, avoiding a disproportionate response from Iran. This includes potential limited military actions and oil tanker seizures, which will keep the geopolitical risk premium in oil markets elevated [2][32]. - **Future Projections**: By November 2026, the base case (60% probability) anticipates continued pressure on Iran without escalation. However, there are scenarios predicting increased conflict and oil supply disruptions due to internal political fragmentation in Iran [3][34]. - **Iran's Economic Situation**: Iran's economy is struggling, which may deter it from engaging in aggressive military responses. The regime is facing civil unrest and economic challenges, making a deal with the US more appealing under new leadership [9][10][15]. - **Oil Market Impact**: The geopolitical risk premium for oil is estimated to be around $7-10 per barrel, with Brent crude currently at $70 per barrel. A potential US-Iran deal could lead to a decrease in this premium and improve oil supply balances [4][25]. Additional Important Insights - **Strait of Hormuz**: The Strait of Hormuz is critical for global oil transit, handling over 20 million barrels per day, which is more than 20% of global petroleum liquids supply. Disruptions here could have significant global economic impacts [11][39]. - **US Oil Market Sensitivity**: The US administration is sensitive to oil prices due to their impact on domestic political conditions. A rise in oil prices could complicate President Trump's electoral prospects [10][15]. - **Potential for Leadership Change in Iran**: A change in Iranian leadership could increase the likelihood of a deal with the US, especially if the new leadership is more amenable to negotiations [9][10]. - **Civil Unrest in Iran**: Ongoing civil unrest and economic difficulties in Iran may lead to regime change, which could either stabilize or disrupt oil exports depending on the nature of the new leadership [15][36]. Conclusion - The report outlines a complex interplay of geopolitical factors affecting the oil market, particularly regarding US-Iran relations. The potential for conflict remains, but the economic realities faced by Iran may lead to opportunities for negotiation and stabilization in oil markets. The situation is fluid, and ongoing developments will be critical to monitor [1][4][10].

Core Viewpoint - Elon Musk emphasized the urgent need for American companies to invest in battery-making infrastructure to avoid falling behind in the electric vehicle and energy storage sectors [1][2]. Group 1: Tesla's Actions and Investments - Tesla has begun processing lithium at its $1 billion refinery in Robstown, Texas, and is producing advanced dry-electrode 4680 cells in Austin [3]. - The company is currently the largest and only lithium and cathode refinery in the U.S., indicating a significant investment in domestic battery production [4]. - Tesla's investments in battery infrastructure and energy storage have helped mitigate revenue pressures from its automotive business [6]. Group 2: Industry Context and Risks - An analysis by the Dallas Federal Reserve identified 66 lithium projects in the U.S., many of which are in early development stages and face challenges such as long timelines and high costs [5]. - General Motors has invested $625 million in a lithium mine project in Nevada, which is expected to be the largest in the U.S. and is set to open between late 2026 and early 2027 [6]. - Analysts express concerns about Tesla's commitment of over $20 billion to long-term industrial projects amid uncertainty regarding near-term returns [7][8]. Group 3: Geopolitical Risks - Musk warned that many companies are underestimating their exposure to geopolitical risks associated with fragile supply chains for critical materials [2]. - He stated that companies failing to address these risks could face severe consequences, potentially leading to their demise [9].

Core Viewpoint - The report from Founder Securities indicates that since January, COMEX gold has risen over 25% and silver over 65%, exceeding market expectations for a bull market, with significant volatility expected in the short term due to profit-taking and emotional adjustments [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The report highlights that the current bull market in precious metals is supported by global geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases, while the impact of AI on the U.S. job market and inflationary pressures from de-globalization remain significant [1] - The report emphasizes the need for ongoing attention to the precious metals sector, suggesting that if short-term volatility occurs, strict stop-loss positions should be updated [1] Group 2: Key Factors Influencing Precious Metals - Three key factors are identified as laying the groundwork for the precious metals market from late December to early January: 1. Concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, with market expectations for rate cuts being cautious, and political statements from Trump raising fears about the Fed's autonomy [2] 2. An increase in geopolitical risks, including U.S. military actions and trade tensions, which bolster the demand for precious metals as safe-haven assets [2] 3. The potential for a weaker dollar, driven by political controversies and deteriorating U.S.-European relations, which may undermine the dollar's status as a safe-haven asset [2] Group 3: Recent Developments - Since mid-January, the concerns regarding the Federal Reserve's independence have been validated by ongoing investigations and hawkish stances from Fed officials, yet market interest in precious metals remains strong [3] - Geopolitical risks have been confirmed by recent U.S. military actions and political rhetoric, maintaining high levels of uncertainty in the market [3] - The trend of a weaker dollar has been reinforced by the chaotic situation surrounding Greenland and Trump's comments on the Fed, leading to a significant outflow of funds from dollar assets [4] Group 4: Price Movements - The combination of concerns about the Fed's independence, geopolitical risks, and expectations of a weaker dollar has led to a robust performance in precious metals, with gold surpassing $550/oz and approaching $5600/oz, while silver nears $120/oz [5]

Oil Futures Make Headway on Geopolitical RiskCONCLUDED[Stock Market News From Jan. 28, 2026: S&P 500 Breaks Win Streak]Last Updated:---4 hours ago# Oil Futures Make Headway on Geopolitical RiskByAnthony Harrup, Dow Jones NewswiresOil futures post back-to-back gains with geopolitical risk keeping a bid in the market against a bearish fundamental backdrop.Despite builds in global onshore crude stocks so far this year, "geopolitical risk premium and physical supply losses have created a strong floor," Macquari ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, focusing on employment, inflation, and economic growth. Core Insights and Arguments - **Economic Growth**: The U.S. economy expanded at a solid pace, with consumer spending remaining resilient and business fixed investment continuing to grow. However, the housing sector has shown weakness [2][3]. - **Labor Market**: The unemployment rate was stable at 4.4%, with job gains averaging 22,000 per month in non-farm payrolls. Private payrolls increased by an average of 29,000 per month, indicating some stabilization in the labor market [2][3][10]. - **Inflation Trends**: Inflation has eased from its mid-2022 highs but remains elevated. The total PCE prices rose by 2.9% over the past year, while core PCE prices increased by 3.0%. The elevated inflation is largely attributed to the goods sector, influenced by tariffs, while disinflation is observed in the services sector [3][4][39]. - **Monetary Policy Stance**: The Federal Open Market Committee decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75%. This decision follows a cumulative reduction of 75 basis points over the previous three meetings, aimed at stabilizing the labor market and guiding inflation towards the 2% target [4][5]. - **Future Rate Adjustments**: The Fed is positioned to adjust the policy rate based on incoming data and evolving economic conditions. The committee emphasized a meeting-by-meeting approach to decision-making [5][27]. - **Tariff Impact**: The effects of tariffs on goods prices are expected to peak and then decline, contributing to a one-time price increase rather than ongoing inflation. The Fed anticipates that as tariff effects diminish, it may allow for policy loosening [39][81]. Additional Important Insights - **Consumer Sentiment**: There is a disconnect between consumer sentiment surveys, which indicate negative perceptions of the economy, and actual consumer spending data, which remains strong [70][75]. - **AI and Labor Market**: The impact of AI on the labor market is being closely monitored, with concerns that it may supplant entry-level jobs. However, technological advancements are also expected to increase productivity over time [76][77]. - **Fiscal Policy Concerns**: The U.S. federal budget deficit is on an unsustainable path, which could pose long-term risks to the economy. The Fed emphasizes the need for addressing fiscal challenges [57][58]. - **Geopolitical Risks**: Geopolitical risks, particularly related to energy prices, are acknowledged, but the current economic outlook remains stable despite global uncertainties [85][86]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the current state of the U.S. economy, labor market dynamics, inflation trends, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy approach.