All right, welcome back. Stocks taking a bit of a breather today as you see some firms now suggesting bonds might be your best play into August and September, not stocks. Marco, the co-founder and CEO of Sycamore Tree Capital joins us once again at Post9.Nice to see you back. Good to see you, Scott. I'll ask you about that in a minute, but because trade is taking a lot of the oxygen today with the talks in in Sweden.You say trade policy being less bad is still bad. You think the market's underappreciating t ...

The largest week for finance is now upon us. And this is going to be the week that we should be locked in, paying attention, and focused on what's happening not only around price action, but also around the things that factor in to price action either being very positive or negative. And those factors that we're actually focused on is what the Fed decides to do this week on top of all the other financial events happening as well this week, which we will go over in this video.So, let's first start off with c ...

Market Overview - The Nasdaq Composite Index has been reaching new records, driven by strong corporate earnings, AI optimism, and expectations of Federal Reserve policy support [1] - ETFs tracking the Nasdaq, such as Invesco QQQ and QQQM, have gained momentum alongside the index [1] Earnings Season - The second-quarter earnings season has started strong, with S&P 500 earnings from 62 companies up 9.3% year-over-year, supported by a 5.8% increase in revenues [2] - Approximately 82.3% of companies have beaten EPS estimates, indicating a favorable outlook for future earnings [2] AI Impact - The generative AI trend is a significant growth driver for Nasdaq, with increased demand for data centers, GPUs, and AI-focused software [4] - Companies like Advanced Micro Devices, Broadcom, and Palantir are experiencing heightened investor interest due to their involvement in AI [4] Interest Rate Expectations - Markets are anticipating at least one rate cut by the Federal Reserve later this year, which would benefit high-growth tech stocks sensitive to borrowing costs [5] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech may provide further insights into monetary policy direction [5] Global Investment Trends - International investors are increasingly returning to U.S. tech stocks, viewing them as a safe haven amid geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty in other regions [6] - This trend is contributing to capital inflows into Nasdaq-tracking ETFs like QQQ and QQQM [6] ETF Highlights - Invesco QQQ (QQQ) has an AUM of $357.1 billion and an average daily volume of 44 million shares, charging 20 bps in annual fees [7] - Invesco NASDAQ 100 ETF (QQQM) has lower annual fees of 15 bps and an AUM of $55.1 billion, with a focus on the top three firms [9] - First Trust NASDAQ-100 Equal Weighted Index Fund (QQEW) has an AUM of $1.9 billion and charges 55 bps in annual fees [10] - Invesco NASDAQ Next Gen 100 ETF (QQQJ) holds 111 securities with an AUM of $629.1 million and charges 15 bps in annual fees [11] - Direxion NASDAQ-100 Equal Weighted Index Shares (QQQE) has an AUM of $1.2 billion and charges 35 bps in annual fees [12] Conclusion - The momentum of the Nasdaq is likely to be tested with major earnings reports from tech companies, but the current sentiment remains bullish [13]

V i e w p o i n t | 18 Jul 2025 10:58:05 ET │ 11 pages US Economics What the Fed Said – Doves and Hawks Remain Divided CITI'S TAKE Governor Waller strongly argued for cutting rates at the July 30th FOMC meeting and signaled he is prepared to dissent from the consensus not to cut. He shares with us the view that tariffs will likely cause a one-time price level effect and not provoke persistent inflation. We also agree with his characterization of labor markets as "on the edge," despite seemingly solid headli ...

Dollar Analysis - The market is consistently attempting to identify a bottom for the dollar, but a substantial dollar rebound is not anticipated [5] - Any upward movement in the dollar is expected to be short-lived [6] - Reserve managers globally are still overexposed to the dollar due to unhedged purchases of US stocks, which could lead to further dollar selling during any rebound [7][8] - The Fed is perceived to be under pressure to maintain an accommodative policy relative to inflation, which is viewed negatively for the dollar [2][3][4] Stock Market Outlook - Short-term, a positive fiscal environment and favorable macro data suggest a bullish outlook for stocks, although gains may be moderate and volatile [9] - Earnings season is expected to support the stock market in the short term due to lowered expectations [10] - By August, a weakening in stock prices is anticipated [10] Economic Factors - CPI data will influence the dollar's value in the coming weeks, particularly concerning pressure on the Federal Reserve from the administration [2] - The impact of tariffs is considered a significant driver, but the specifics of implementation remain uncertain in the short term [8]

Let's talk about the dollar for a second. Since April 2nd, basically since the start of the second quarter, we've seen the dollar fall about 6% historically. How big of a move is that.And do you see that as a potential warning sign for equity investors. Yeah, clearly the the decline in the dollar here reflects this loss of confidence in US trade uh security and and perhaps even fiscal policy because you also see a bit of a divergence between the dollar index and rate differential. I think that reflects this ...

Interest Rate Outlook - Wells Fargo anticipates one rate cut in 2025 and one in 2026, suggesting a neutral rate around 100 basis points above inflation [3] - Piper Sandler suggests the economy needs rate cuts to broaden fundamental breadth beyond the largest companies and wealthiest consumers [7][13] - The market is already at all-time highs, priced for only a couple of cuts [4] Economic Indicators and Analysis - The economy is bifurcated, with housing and small caps showing weakness, while S&P 500 profits are at new highs [6][7] - US PMIs remain broadly in contraction territory [6] - Unemployment at 41%, and Q2 GDP tracking around 25% do not indicate an immediate need for Fed rate cuts [9] - Positive year-over-year earnings growth suggests no imminent recession or material slowdown [10] Earnings Growth - Consensus is tracking 5% to 6% earnings growth for Q2, potentially reaching 7% to 9% with beats, following Q1's 15% earnings growth [11] Market Performance - NASDAQ is at an all-time high, with Nvidia's market cap exceeding $4 trillion [1] - The market exhibits narrowness, with concerns about smaller companies and lower-income consumers being left behind [8][13]

Things I’m interested in today: (07.07.2025):- Bonk vs Pump eco. Seems like consensus/astroturfing on the timeline that Bonk is now “winning” (whatever that means) and it’s over for pump. Not sure if that’s all just bait or ppl really believe it, but I think it would be foolish to count out an eco that raised 9 at 10 Val and literally created the trenches.- a lot of political/broader economy news. Trump v Elon. Tariff News (think this probably is “good” and the worst tariff stuff behind us). More treasury c ...

Market Overview - Wall Street is experiencing a rally due to easing tariff fears and optimism regarding a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the near future [1][2] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached new closing highs, with investors hopeful that a rate cut will further enhance stock performance [1] Trade Agreements - Recent trade deals between the United States and Vietnam, as well as with China and the United Kingdom, have positively influenced market sentiment [4][5] - Despite the positive news, uncertainties remain regarding the impact of new tariffs on the economy, as the White House has not provided clarity [6] Federal Reserve Outlook - Optimism surrounding an anticipated rate cut in July is contributing to the market rally, although Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has maintained a hawkish stance [7] - Market participants are expecting two 25-basis-point rate cuts by the end of the year, but the lack of a clear timeline from the Federal Reserve may affect investor sentiment [7] Dividend-Paying Stocks - In light of market volatility, cautious investors may consider dividend-paying stocks for stable income and capital protection [3] - Three notable dividend-paying stocks include: - **Bank OZK**: Announced a dividend of $0.44 per share with a yield of 3.38%, having increased its dividend 21 times over the past five years [9][11] - **Lindsay Corporation**: Declared a dividend of $0.37 per share with a yield of 0.98%, having increased its dividend five times in five years [13][11] - **Sandstorm Gold Ltd.**: Announced a dividend of $0.02 per share with a yield of 0.59%, having raised its dividend seven times in five years [15][11]

Big moves in rate cut futures markets this morning on the back of the strong jobs reportJuly now has just a 5% chance at a cut (down from 24% yesterday)September has a 78% chance (down from 96% yesterday) https://t.co/uXysFMvOXX ...