分组1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a quarter-point interest rate cut, but the future path of rates remains uncertain, with traders closely watching the press conference for guidance [1][2][10] - The Fed's updated economic projections, known as the dot plot, will provide insights into officials' expectations for future interest rates [2][10] - Concerns about inflation persist, with current rates running approximately one percentage point above the Fed's 2% target, influenced by both goods and services inflation [11][12] 分组2 - Oracle is set to report earnings, with its stock down 33% from its all-time high in September due to heavy capital expenditures and concerns over its business model [4][26] - The company has become a significant player in AI after a $300 billion deal with OpenAI, but it raised $18 billion through debt offerings to fund its compute buildout [5][26] - For the upcoming quarter, Oracle is expected to report earnings per share (EPS) of $1.64 and revenue of $16.2 billion, with remaining performance obligations projected to increase by 433% [27][28] 分组3 - SpaceX is planning to raise over $30 billion through an IPO in 2026, which would value the company at $1.5 trillion, making it one of the largest public offerings [6][36] - GE Vernova's shares have risen due to AI-driven growth, with a long-term revenue outlook of $52 billion by 2028, and the company has announced increased buybacks and dividends [37] - Chewy reported third-quarter earnings that exceeded estimates, but its stock fluctuated due to a fourth-quarter outlook that fell short of expectations, despite adding active customers for the fourth consecutive quarter [39]

All right, we got to start with futures. What do you make of futures turning negative. They were just very slightly higher earlier, but now pretty firmly in the red.>> Yeah, I mean it's not not much to make of it right now. I guess it's a little bit of it's ahead of the Fed meeting today and you know, I I don't really have any kind of don't have any expectation there and I think we're waiting to see. >> All right.Um, looking ahead today, does it matter to you as an investor if we get that hawkish pause that ...

Group 1 - The bullish price movements in the crypto market are influenced by multiple factors, including an expected 25 bps rate cut from the US Federal Reserve, which is likely to boost investor sentiment heading into 2026 [1][4][5] - Bitcoin (BTC) is currently holding at $92,000, up 3.1% in the last 24 hours, with potential for a broader market rally if it reclaims the $97K level [3][4] - The Solana ecosystem is showing signs of recovery after a liquidity drain, with specific projects like Pippin and HumidiFi performing exceptionally well [1][7] Group 2 - The CME watch tool indicates an 89.9% probability of a 25 bps rate cut, which is expected to create short-term volatility but long-term bullishness in the crypto market [4][5] - Ripple is noted as the strongest performer among digital assets with a spot ETF, having posted fifteen consecutive days of inflows exceeding outflows, although its price has only increased by 1% to $2.06 [6] - Ethereum (ETH) has seen a significant increase of 6.5% today, pushing its price back above $3,300, contributing to the overall market cap increase of $150 billion [4][5]

Don't quote me on this, but I think that force will be quite strong. So that force may be strong enough to offset the fouryear cycle. Who knows.Uh >> so you're saying next year bull market. >> We may be seeing a super super cycle. So we'll see.Yeah. Uh I'm not sure. >> We'll see.>> Yeah. Um, so, >> and there you guys have, of course, CZ, the founder of Binance, speculating on the fact that the four-year cycle is essentially dead and that we are in a super cycle for crypto. Now, if you guys did watch my prev ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points in December, marking its third consecutive cut, despite inflation remaining above the 2% target [1][2] - A cooling labor market and leading indicators suggest a slowdown in the U.S. economy, supporting the case for a rate cut [1] Group 2: Impact on Banking Sector - Banks are significantly affected by the Fed's policies, particularly regarding their net interest margin (NIM) and overall business performance [3] - Citigroup (C) stock is identified as a strong buy for 2026, having increased nearly 53% this year, outperforming the KBW Bank Invesco ETF (KBWB) [3] Group 3: Citigroup's Performance and Strategy - Citigroup's dividend yield stands at 2.1%, which is higher than most large-cap banking peers, despite a narrowing gap due to the stock's outperformance [4] - Citigroup has undergone a significant turnaround under CEO Jane Fraser, focusing on reducing complexity and improving efficiency by flattening its organizational structure and exiting consumer banking in several international markets [6]

Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The market indicates a 90% chance of a rate cut at the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, a significant shift from a 35% chance just three weeks prior [1][2] - Attention is focused on Chair Powell's comments regarding future rate cuts and the balance sheet, particularly if he reverts to a more cautious stance on inflation [3][4] Oracle Corporation - Oracle's stock has seen a 10% increase in the past week but is down 21% for the quarter, prompting close monitoring of its recovery potential [5] - The company previously announced a substantial revenue deal, but there were concerns about earnings, leading to stock price fluctuations [6][7] - The expected equilibrium price for Oracle's stock is around $255, with a bounce anticipated between $250 and $255 levels [8]

Market Overview - Australian shares are set for their first advance of Week 50, despite the Reserve Bank halting its rate relief cycle and warnings against expecting rate cuts soon [1] - ASX 200 futures indicate a +0.25% rise, while Wall Street has also shown positive movement, although traders remain divided ahead of the Fed's rate decision [2] Economic Indicators - Jerome Powell's potential rate cut in the U.S. is contributing to a more dovish market sentiment, with the S&P 500 approaching all-time highs from October [3] - The ASX is on track to reach three million fund investors by next year, with an additional 411,000 entering the ETF space this year [4] Company News - South32 is considering acquiring the West Musgrave mine from BHP Group, which is divesting most of its nickel assets; Sandfire Resources may also be interested [5] - KKR has reportedly been exploring the option to take Pepper Money private, but a spike in Pepper's value has complicated those plans [5] - Trigg Minerals has received permitting to drill at Antimony Canyon and will begin staging contractors at the site [6] - Wildcat Resources has intercepted mineralization at its Bolt Cutter Central lithium discovery [6] - Tempest is in the process of acquiring the Remorse iron deposit [6] Commodity Prices - The Australian dollar is trading at 66.4 U.S. cents [7] - Iron Ore has decreased by -0.2% to $101.85 per tonne, Brent Crude is down -0.8% to $61.98 per barrel, Gold is priced at $4,215 per ounce, and U.S. natural gas futures have dropped -7% to $4.57 per gigajoule [7]

Core Insights - Bitcoin (BTC) has risen above $94,000, but strategists are cautious about a potential year-end rally due to expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut and a possible pause in future policy easing [1][2] Market Expectations - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate reduction from the Federal Reserve at the end of its two-day policy meeting [2] - There are increasing bets that Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks post-meeting may indicate a pause in January, as policymakers aim to balance inflation control with a cooling labor market [2] Analyst Perspectives - Investment analyst Nic Puckrin suggests that a hawkish speech from Powell could reduce the chances of a Bitcoin rally, predicting that Bitcoin may end 2025 below $100,000 despite recent purchases by Michael Saylor's Strategy [3][4] - Puckrin believes that a rebound in the crypto market could occur once President Trump announces a replacement for Powell, with Kevin Hassett seen as a favorable candidate for the industry [4] Current Market Conditions - Bitcoin has struggled to recover after a significant drop from its October high of approximately $126,000 [4][8] - Analysts from Compass Point express caution regarding chasing breakouts as Bitcoin trades near the high end of its recent range of $81,000 to $94,000 [5] - Recent buyers of Bitcoin have a cost basis of around $103,000 per token, leading to a tendency to "sell the rip" rather than "buy the dip" when prices fall below this level [6] Yearly Performance - Bitcoin has declined by 2% year-to-date, positioning it for its worst annual performance since the 2022 crypto winter, which saw a loss of over 64% [7] - The token is diverging from stock market performance for the first time since 2014, as the S&P 500 has gained 16% [7]

Market Overview - The crypto market began December with strong momentum, with Bitcoin approaching $94,000 and Ethereum nearing $3,250, driven by Strategy's purchase of approximately $960 million in BTC and anticipation of the Fusaka upgrade on December 3 [1] - Following the initial catalysts, bullish sentiment diminished, leading to a price reversal during the U.S. trading session on Friday, with aggressive selling observed [2] - A minor rebound occurred over the weekend, but the positive sentiment did not carry into Monday, reflecting a typical pattern in the crypto market over recent months [2] Macro Conditions - Bond markets experienced a sell-off across major economies, initiated by Japan, where the JGB 10-year yield surpassed 1.90%, marking a 30-year high [2] - The increase in bond yields was influenced by rising expectations of a December rate hike by the Bank of Japan and concerns regarding increased issuance from a larger-than-expected FY25 supplementary budget [3] - In the U.S., the 10-year Treasury yield rose above 4.10%, as markets prepared for the Federal Reserve's policy meeting, with expectations of a "hawkish cut" impacting rate sentiment and overall risk appetite [4] Investor Sentiment - Gracy Chen, CEO of Bitget, noted that investors are acting as if the Fed's rate decision is already determined, with Fed funds futures indicating a nearly 90% chance of a 25 basis point cut, up from below 40% just weeks prior [5] - There is a noticeable divergence in risk sentiment, with the S&P 500 up nearly 17% this year, yet U.S. equity funds saw $3.5 billion in outflows last week, while global funds added $7.9 billion [5] - The crypto market remains weaker, with potential for Bitcoin to rise back toward $94,000–$96,000 if a rate cut occurs, while a cautious approach could push it back into the $80K range [5] Volatility Expectations - Options markets are pricing in increased volatility ahead of a week heavy with central bank decisions, with expectations of choppy price action due to a busy calendar that includes the Fed on December 10 and the BOJ on December 19, along with two major labor reports [6]

Core Insights - Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading above $92,000, but strategists are cautious about the potential for a year-end rally due to rising expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut [1] - The market anticipates a 25-basis-point rate reduction from the Federal Reserve, with increasing bets on a pause in January [2] - Analysts suggest that a hawkish speech from Fed Chair Jerome Powell could diminish the likelihood of a Bitcoin rally [3] Market Expectations - The Federal Reserve is expected to announce a rate cut at the end of its two-day policy meeting, with investors closely watching Powell's remarks for future policy direction [2] - There is speculation that if Kevin Hassett, viewed as industry-friendly, replaces Powell, it could lead to a market shift from depression to euphoria in 2026 [4] Bitcoin Performance - Bitcoin has struggled recently, having fallen from an October high of approximately $126,000, and is currently near the high end of a recent range of $81,000 to $94,000 [4][5] - The token has declined 2% year-to-date, setting it up for its worst annual performance since the 2022 crypto winter, which saw a 64% drop in value [7] - Bitcoin's performance is diverging from the stock market, with the S&P 500 gaining 16% [7] Investor Sentiment - Analysts note that buyers who purchased Bitcoin in the last six months did so at an average cost basis of around $103,000, leading to a tendency to "sell the rip" rather than "buy the dip" when prices fall below this level [5][6]