Market Outlook & Strategy - The market historically performs well in the last quarter of the year, with an 81% probability of gains [2] - Investors should maintain a long position in the market, focusing on quality stocks that have been undervalued [3] - Government shutdowns are considered inconsequential and a buying opportunity may arise from market dips [1][3][9][10] - The market is broad, with investments flowing into various sectors, but technology remains a favored area [7][8] - The current market situation is viewed as a potential overreaction, suggesting a good opportunity to buy on dips and add to winning positions [9][10] Sector Performance & Investment Focus - Defensive sectors like healthcare and utilities are experiencing a move into them, with utilities reaching an all-time high and healthcare being the best-performing sector this week [6][7] - Technology sector is also hitting new all-time highs, with the "Magnificent 7" stocks expected to perform well [7][8] - The firm is fully invested and is rotating capital into more productive areas or stocks [11] - Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) is highlighted as a pick due to its recurring revenue model, with a recent stock pullback presenting a buying opportunity [11][12][13] Risk Factors & Economic Considerations - The growing national debt is a concern that needs to be addressed by investors [6] - While a government shutdown may delay the release of economic data like the jobs report, CPI, and PPI, the overall impact is not expected to be significant [4][5]

Core Insights - The company is preparing for the third quarter of 2025, emphasizing that trends and statements are based on current views and may change as actual data for September is not yet available [1] ITS Segment Overview - Order intake in units has shown little change in year-on-year momentum compared to the first and second quarters, indicating typical seasonal patterns where Q1 and Q3 are weaker, while Q2 and Q4 are stronger [2] - Q3 2025 is expected to reflect normal seasonal trends, with a sequential decrease in orders and units by mid-teens percentage, but a potentially higher year-over-year growth rate due to low levels in the prior year [2] - Growth has been particularly noted in the EMEA and APAC regions [2] Order Intake Value - The order intake in value terms has likely increased at a rate less than the proportional growth in units when compared year-over-year [3]

Market Overview - The Dow closed at a record high, up over 40 points or 0.1% [1][6] - The NASDAQ also reached a record high, increasing by almost 5 points or 0.5% [2] - The S&P 500 closed at a new high, up one-third of 1% [2][6] - Small caps, represented by the S&P 600, increased by a quarter of 1% but did not reach a record [2] Sector Performance - The healthcare sector was the biggest gainer, with the XLV ETF up 3% [3] - Utilities and technology sectors also performed well, both up just under 1% [3] - Consumer discretionary sector rose by 0.6% [3] - Communication services and materials sectors saw declines of 1.4% and 1% respectively [4] Company Highlights - Tesla was noted as an outperformer within the NASDAQ 100, alongside several semiconductor companies like Intel and TSMC, which saw increases of over 3% [4][5] - JP Morgan, Walmart, Home Depot, McDonald's, Disney, Goldman Sachs, and American Express all experienced declines of more than 1% [5][6] Economic Insights - The market appears to be optimistic about the government shutdown being short-lived, contributing to the record highs [6] - The market is expected to broaden, with potential opportunities in small caps and overseas markets [8][19] - Historical data suggests that after instances of the Fed cutting rates in a growing economy, markets have typically risen, with the S&P 500 averaging a 17% increase [9][10] Electric Vehicle Market - Ford and GM reported record EV sales in Q3, driven by consumer demand before the expiration of the EV tax credit [23][51] - Analysts expect a potential slowdown in EV demand post-subsidies, but some manufacturers are maintaining incentives to support sales [25][26] - Tesla is anticipated to continue competing effectively in the EV market, adjusting pricing based on market conditions [29] Housing Market - The housing market is seeing a surge in contract signings, with pending home sales index rising by 4% in August [54] - Mortgage rates have recently increased after several weeks of decline, impacting the housing market outlook [54]

Market Overview - US stocks are experiencing a modest selloff, with the Dow down approximately 76 points, the S&P 500 off about a third of a percent, and the Nasdaq Composite down nearly half a percent [3][4] - Defensive sectors such as healthcare and utilities are limiting losses, while cyclical sectors like communication services, financials, and industrials are underperforming [5][6] Government Shutdown Impact - The government shutdown could reduce GDP by 0.1% to 0.2% for each week it continues, with the last shutdown resulting in a $3 billion loss in real GDP for Q4 2018 and Q1 2019 [7][8] - The current shutdown is different from the previous one as it is a full shutdown, raising concerns about its duration and potential economic impact [10][12] Employment and Economic Data - The ADP jobs report indicated a drop of 32,000 jobs, leading to a market reaction that saw yields decline and increased expectations for rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [28][29] - The Fed is closely monitoring labor market data, with indications that a significant demand shortfall may prompt rate cuts to prevent rising unemployment [34][36] Union Pacific and Ford Insights - Union Pacific is in the process of a significant $85 billion merger with Norfolk Southern, which aims to create the first transcontinental railroad in the US [55][56] - Ford's CEO highlighted a worker shortage in critical industries, emphasizing the need for skilled trades and the impact of tariffs on operational costs, estimating a $2 billion net tariff impact this year [80][82] Emerging Markets and International Opportunities - Emerging markets, particularly in technology, are gaining investor interest, with a notable rise in the EMQQ ETF, which tracks emerging market internet companies [87][89] - Latin America is highlighted as a significant growth area, with companies like Mercado Libre leading the charge in e-commerce and financial services [93][94]

Core Insights - Bitcoin closed September with a 5.16% gain, marking its third-best September since 2013, as traders look forward to October, historically the asset's strongest month [1] - Since 2013, Bitcoin has averaged 14.4% gains in October, with a median return of 10.8%, and 10 out of 13 Octobers ended positively [2] - The first week of October can be choppy or negative, but stronger gains often occur later in the month, with historical data showing double-digit surges after October 15 [5] Market Trends - Financial markets typically show seasonality, with weaker performance from May to October compared to November to April, influencing investor strategies [3][4] - Bitcoin's performance in October is influenced by macro cycles, institutional flows, and retail sentiment, with recent weeks showing resilience after mixed performance earlier in the year [6] - September's strong performance may indicate potential momentum for Bitcoin in late-year trading, although macroeconomic factors will also play a significant role [6][7]

Market Overview - U.S. stock futures declined on Wednesday following gains on Tuesday, with major indices experiencing drops due to the federal government entering a shutdown after Congress failed to agree on a spending plan [1][2] - Historical data indicates that government shutdowns typically have a short-lived and limited long-term impact on equities [1] Economic Indicators - The 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.15%, while the two-year bond was at 3.60%, with a 94.6% likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in the upcoming October meeting [2] - U.S. job openings increased by 19,000 to 7.227 million in August, while the Chicago Business Barometer fell to 40.6 in September, below market expectations [5] Recent Performance - The S&P 500 gained over 3% in September, with the Dow increasing nearly 2% and the Nasdaq rising 5.6% [4] - Most sectors on the S&P 500 closed positively on Tuesday, with information technology, health care, and industrials showing the largest gains, while energy and consumer discretionary sectors closed lower [3] Analyst Insights - Historical trends suggest that October is often a positive month for the S&P 500, with nearly 60% of Octobers since 1950 showing positive returns and an average gain of 0.89% [8] - The fourth quarter (October to December) is historically the strongest three-month period for equities, with an average return of almost 2% since 1950, and over 6% in the past five years [12][17] - The current momentum of the S&P 500, which is on a five-month winning streak, indicates a historically bullish setup for equities as the year ends [14][17] Company Performance - Nike Inc. reported better-than-expected first-quarter results, with earnings of 49 cents per share surpassing the consensus estimate of 27 cents, and sales of $11.720 billion exceeding the estimate of $11.000 billion [17] - Ryvyl Inc. surged 94.66% following a $75 million merger agreement, while AST SpaceMobile Inc. jumped 6.38% due to news about its upcoming satellite launch [17]

Market Overview - U.S. stock futures declined following a government shutdown that began on October 1, 2023, after Congress failed to agree on a spending plan [1][4] - Historical data indicates that government shutdowns typically have a short-lived and limited long-term impact on equities [1] Economic Indicators - The 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.15%, while the two-year bond was at 3.60% [2] - Job openings in the U.S. rose by 19,000 to 7.227 million in August [5] - The Chicago Business Barometer fell to 40.6 in September, below market expectations [5] - The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index increased by 1.8% year-over-year in July [5] Stock Performance - Major indices experienced declines in futures trading: Dow Jones down 0.56%, S&P 500 down 0.65%, Nasdaq 100 down 0.73%, and Russell 2000 down 0.70% [2] - The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) fell by 0.54% to $662.56, while Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) declined by 0.62% to $596.66 [2] Sector Performance - Most sectors on the S&P 500 closed positively, with information technology, health care, and industrials showing the largest gains [3] - Energy and consumer discretionary sectors closed lower [3] Historical Trends - The S&P 500 gained over 3% in September, with the Dow up nearly 2% and the Nasdaq up 5.6% [4] - October has historically been a positive month for the S&P 500, with nearly 60% of Octobers since 1950 showing positive returns and an average gain of 0.89% [8][9] - The fourth quarter (October to December) is noted as the strongest three-month period for equities, with an average return of almost 2% since 1950, and over 6% in the past five years [12][17] Company Highlights - Nike Inc. reported better-than-expected first-quarter results, with earnings of 49 cents per share surpassing the consensus estimate of 27 cents, and sales of $11.720 billion exceeding the estimate of $11.000 billion [17] - Ryvyl Inc. surged 94.66% following a $75 million merger agreement [17] - Iron Horse Acquisitions Corp. jumped 47.43% after finalizing a business merger [17]

[Music] Welcome to Morning Brief Market Sunrise. I'm Raman Karamali live from Yahoo Finance Studios in London. It's Tuesday, 30th September.Coming up on the show, the vice president signals that a government shutdown looks like it will kick in from tomorrow. We'll look into whether China can threaten the US's dominance in the world of artificial intelligence. and I'll tell you all about a stock that surged over 1,700% in less than 24 hours.So, grab your coffee and let's own the morning. [Music] I think we'r ...

Market Overview - The US stock market started strong but the Dow has slipped into the red, currently down by about 19 points, while the S&P is up 0.4% and the NASDAQ is leading with an increase of 0.8% [2][3] - Energy and utilities sectors are dragging down the major averages, while technology and cyclicals like industrials are performing well [3] Economic Data and Job Market - A significant jobs report is expected at the end of the week, with consensus predicting the US economy to add 50,000 jobs, while Bank of America anticipates 65,000 jobs [4] - The current job market is characterized as low hiring but resilient consumer spending is expected to lead to a broadening of hiring across sectors [9][10] - Inflation remains a concern, with expectations that it will stay above 3% for the next three quarters, but no sudden spikes are anticipated [18][19] Government Shutdown Implications - A government shutdown is looming, with potential economic impacts depending on its duration; short shutdowns are inefficient but longer ones can materially affect GDP [36][34] - The current situation reflects a broken budget process, with Congress failing to act on deadlines, leading to uncertainty for businesses and consumers [32][33] Electronic Arts Acquisition - Electronic Arts (EA) has agreed to be acquired in an all-cash deal worth $55 billion, with a premium of 25% being paid [48][69] - Analysts view the premium as reasonable given market precedents, and the deal is expected to close in early 2027 pending shareholder approval [49][69] - The acquisition could help EA build out its mobile business and live service revenue, addressing past struggles in these areas [70][54] Analyst Insights - Morgan Stanley has raised price targets for large US banks by a median of 14%, indicating a positive outlook for the banking sector [67][68] - Analysts are cautious about the future of independent video game publishers, with EA's acquisition highlighting ongoing consolidation in the industry [57][58]

Core Insights - Bitcoin has rebounded sharply, surpassing $114,000 after dropping below $109,000 last Friday, indicating a strong market response [1] - The rally in cryptocurrencies is influenced by macroeconomic factors such as lower interest rates and a seasonal shift from September to October, which historically sees price increases [2] Cryptocurrency Market Performance - Major cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin, Ethereum (ETH), XRP, and Solana (SOL) have increased by approximately 4% in the last 24 hours, while gold has reached a record high above $3,850 per ounce [3] - Crypto-related stocks like Coinbase (COIN) and Circle (CRCL) have seen gains of 5.7% and 7.7%, respectively [3] Mining Sector Recovery - Cryptocurrency miners, particularly those focused on Bitcoin, are experiencing a significant bounce back after last week's downturn, with companies like MARA Holdings (MARA) up 8% [4] - Stocks related to artificial intelligence and high-performance computing, such as IREN and Cipher Mining, have also risen by 4% [4] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Institutional and retail investors are showing support for Bitcoin at the $110,000 level, with expectations of potential downside risk until clearer macroeconomic indicators are available [5] - October is historically a strong month for Bitcoin, with an average return of 22% since 2013, and November showing even stronger gains of 46% [6] - The current year has been significant for cryptocurrency adoption and regulation, suggesting that seasonal trends could lead Bitcoin to challenge previous record highs by year-end [7]