Core Insights - Apple stock has historically performed poorly in September, with a win rate of only 34% and an average return of -4.18% over the past 45 years, making it the weakest month for the stock [1][2] - In contrast, other months like July, October, and December have shown win rates above 60%, indicating a seasonal dip specifically in September [2] - Despite the historical trend, September is significant for Apple as it typically unveils new products, including the iPhone 17, which could impact stock performance [2][6] Stock Performance - As of the latest session, Apple stock closed at $231.59, reflecting a 5% decline year to date in 2025 [3] Upcoming Events - The upcoming iPhone 17 event in September is crucial, as the new iPhone 17 Air model is expected to compete with Samsung's Galaxy S25 Edge, and its reception will be pivotal for Apple's growth [6]

$ETH - Seasonality.Pullback in September, followed by euphoria in Q4 ? https://t.co/BxbNgbdfCP ...

Retail Investor Performance - Retail investors have recently outperformed the NASDAQ, marking the second time since 2014 and the first full year in 2024 [1][2] - Retail investors are currently performing 3 to 4 percentage points better than the SPY [2] Top Holdings and Strategies - Retail investors' top buys include mega-cap tech names like Nvidia, Tesla, AMD, Palantir, and Amazon [3] - Retail investors have shifted towards tech AI and tech crypto themes, contributing to portfolio performance [4] - Short squeezes in these sectors, driven by retail investor buying against hedge fund shorts, have boosted returns [4] Seasonality and Trends - Historically, strong buying occurs at the beginning of the year, slowing around tax season and picking up in early summer, with a slowdown in the latter part of the year due to holidays and travel [6][7] - The typical seasonality shifted this year due to a correction in April, which retail investors capitalized on [8] - Seasonality trends suggest a potential slowdown in retail investor buying in the latter part of the year [8]

Market Seasonality & Trends - The market typically experiences a summer rally from May through July, with the first year of the presidential cycle showing an average increase of approximately 5.5%, this year reaching 13.8% [2] - Seasonality tends to turn negative from August through October, potentially leading to market backing and filling [2][3] - A traditional scary October drawdown is anticipated based on studied data [3] Key Technical Levels - Support levels are identified at 6100 to 6200, while resistance is around 6600 [4] - The cyclical uptrend that began in April is expected to rally into the 6400-6600 area by year-end [4] - A dip could test rising 26 and 40 week moving averages around 5900 [4][5][6] Yield Curve Analysis - The 30-year yield rebound towards 5% could be forming a rising wedge, suggesting a potential downside break towards 4.4% or even 4% [8] - The five-year yield might be forming a distribution top, indicating a potential decrease if it breaks lower [8] - Continued steepening in the yield curve is anticipated, potentially leading to 2 or 3 rate cuts this year [9] Investment Focus - The current long-term secular bull market favors larger companies, leading to outperformance of the largest stocks [10] - Growth stocks are showing strong performance versus value stocks across market caps in the US, with new relative highs for Russell 1000 growth versus Russell 1000 value, S&P growth versus S&P value, and small cap growth versus small cap value [11] - Internationally, value is breaking out versus growth, presenting a different dynamic [12]

Financial Performance - The company experienced a solid 37% revenue growth [1][2] - Gross margin stands at 87% [1] - The company exceeded expectations across the board on revenue growth and adjusted EBIT [2] Active Member Growth - Active member growth was 23% year-over-year in both Q1 and Q2, accelerating the rate [1][4] - Investors may be starting to understand the nuances of the business, including its seasonality [3] - Sequential quarter-to-quarter growth might be disappointing to some who don't understand the seasonality [4] Business Model & Strategy - The company focuses on serving everyday consumers and banking them in a primary account capacity [6] - The company is primarily a payments-driven business, not a lending business [7] - Credit and lending constitute a mid-teens percentage of the company's revenue [8] - The company aims to develop long-term partnerships with members, helping them avoid fees, build credit, and save [8] AI Integration - The company is leveraging AI to enhance the product experience and operations [11] - Over 70% of customer interactions are served with generative AI, leading to increased customer satisfaction [12] - The company envisions AI as a digital partner to help customers manage their day-to-day financial life [13]

All three major averages finishing in the green today. The NASDAQ up 1%. Our next guest is warning of seasonal weakness ahead for the stock market.But could strong earnings reverse the usual August malaise. Well, let's bring in RBC Capital Markets head of US equity strategy Lori Calvacina as well as region's wealth management CIO Alan Mcnite. It's great to have you both here.Alan, you're sitting here on set with me. Welcome. Let's start this conversation.What do you think of markets here. What would you be ...

turn. I think this really caught the Swiss off guard. >> It did.They were prepared for it. Yeah. Let's look at the futures right now.Continuing yesterday's bounce back from Friday's losses. Joining us now Amy Wu Silverman head of derivatives strategy at RBC Capital Markets. Which is a nice way of saying that I mean you focus on on technicals but you use derivatives to figure out some technical indicators.Not we don't do a lot of fundamentals. I'm not going to ask you about about tariffs I don't think. But s ...

Market Outlook - Veteran trader Jonathan Rose is shorting tech stocks due to a complacent market ahead of significant economic catalysts, including the Fed's rate decision and major tech earnings [1][2][3] - The VIX, a measure of market volatility, is currently below 15, indicating low expected turbulence, which is concerning given the upcoming events that could trigger volatility [2][3] Trading Strategy - To mitigate risk, a defined-risk put spread on QQQ (the Nasdaq ETF) is being implemented, allowing for profit from rising volatility or a short-term pullback while capping exposure [4][5] - The strategy does not require a significant drop in tech stock prices; a rise in uncertainty alone could make the put profitable [5] Earnings and Economic Reports - Key earnings reports from Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple are scheduled, along with the FOMC meeting and employment data, which could impact market volatility [7] Seasonal Trends - Historical data suggests a short-term bearish outlook for the S&P 500, with a peak expected this week, followed by a decline until October 2, after which a rebound is anticipated [9][11][12] Gold Market Analysis - Gold is forming a bullish "ascending triangle" pattern, indicating a potential breakout if it surpasses the resistance level around $3,430, supported by increased trading volume [14][16][20] - The seasonality tool forecasts that gold prices have historically risen during specific windows, suggesting a favorable trading environment for gold in the coming months [17] Tesla's Market Position - Tesla faces significant challenges, including increased competition from Chinese manufacturers like BYD, which offers more affordable EVs, and the end of federal electric vehicle tax credits [21][22][23] - Analysts suggest that Tesla's production goals for its Optimus robots are lagging, further complicating its market position [24][26]

Market Seasonality - August typically exhibits lackluster returns, being the third worst month of the year with median returns under 05% [2] - The percentage of positive returns in August is around 54%, which is below the preferred threshold of 70% [3] - Historical patterns suggest a potential market stumble in early October, with increased volatility in September and caution advised for September, October, and November [7] - Early August may start with a negative trend, but both models (since 1928 and 1990) indicate a climb out of negative territory later in the month [8] - The model since 1990 suggests positive territory around the 15th or 16th of August, while the model since 1928 indicates earlier positive movement and a slightly higher month-end [9] US Dollar Index Seasonality - The US dollar index model, based on data since 1971, indicates an upward trend from late July into early August, continuing into early October [11] - A stronger US dollar can potentially disrupt risk markets, posing an impediment to stocks, commodities, and crypto [12] External Factors - New tariff news or a dovish Federal Reserve (Fed) policy this week could significantly influence market direction [10] - Events like tariffs and presidential policies can override typical seasonality patterns [4][5]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the importance of seasonality in trading, suggesting that it has been a reliable backdrop for price action despite external factors like tariffs and budget bills [1] - The recommended trade setup is a long trade on Ross Stores (ROST), extending into January 2026, with a focus on identifying overlooked opportunities rather than chasing headlines [2][3] - ROST's current resistance is around $160, with support near $120, indicating potential volatility in the coming weeks [3] Group 2 - The proposed trading strategy is a "long call butterfly," which combines a long call spread and a short call spread sharing the same short strike and expiration date, aiming for profit if the price rises [3][5] - The current debit for the long call butterfly is $3.28, with a breakeven price at $138.23 plus commissions, and a potential profit of $1,672 on a risk of $328 [5] - The strategy allows for multiple exit strategies, including selling the butterfly when profit goals are met or loss thresholds are breached, typically aiming for a 100% to 300% return [6][9] Group 3 - The specific trade details include buying 1 ROST 16 Jan26 135 calls, selling 2 ROST 16 Jan26 150 calls, and buying 1 ROST 16 Jan26 165 calls [8] - Traders are advised to set alerts for key price levels, particularly around $150, to monitor the trade's performance as it approaches expiration [4] - Advanced traders may consider adjusting short strikes if the price continues to rise, providing flexibility in managing the trade [6]