Economic Projections and Fed Meeting - The Federal Reserve's updated economic projections and dot plot will be crucial for understanding the long-term rate trajectory and terminal rate expectations for 2026 [1][5] - The Fed's December meeting is critical as it will determine whether to implement another rate cut or pause the easing cycle amid mixed economic signals and persistent inflation concerns [5][6] Employment Indicators - Tuesday's JOLTS job openings data will provide the final employment indicator before the Fed decision, offering insights into labor demand trends and hiring intentions [3][13] - Strong job openings could complicate arguments for continued rate cuts, while significant weakening could reinforce concerns about economic momentum [14][15] Earnings Reports - Oracle and Adobe's earnings on Wednesday will provide insights into enterprise software spending and AI monetization progress, with Oracle focusing on database modernization and cloud infrastructure [7][8] - Broadcom and Costco's earnings on Thursday will offer contrasting perspectives on AI infrastructure investment and consumer spending health, with Broadcom's results closely watched for data center networking chip demand [10][12] Bond Auctions - The upcoming bond auctions will test investor appetite for longer-duration Treasury securities following the Fed decision, with demand patterns and yield levels providing insights into institutional investor confidence [16][17] - The Thursday auction occurring after the Fed decision and major earnings creates potential for significant yield volatility depending on market interpretations [17]

On the December episode of ITK, ARK CEO/CIO Cathie Wood explains why ARK believes we’re on the verge of a major liquidity turn from both fiscal and monetary policy – and why that could lower inflation over the next few years. She walks through the data on tax cuts, money growth, yields, and productivity, and explains why the market’s “wall of worry” may be setting up one of the strongest bull markets yet. Key Points: 00:00:00 Opening 00:02:00 Fiscal policy, deficits & tax relief (OB3) 00:08:30 Inflation, fo ...

Who's going to be the next Federal Reserve chairman. President Trump seemed to give us a little hint. Watch what he said here about Kevin Hasset.>> I guess a potential Fed chair is here, too. I don't know. We allowed to say that potential.He's a respected person that I can tell you. Thank you, Kevin. >> So, who exactly is Kevin Hasset and do we think this is a good choice.He's a well-known supply side economist. He wants to unleash economic growth through tax cuts, deregulation, and accommodative monetary p ...

Market Cycle Analysis - The cryptocurrency industry observes Bitcoin tends to peak in Q4 of post-halving years, potentially recurring in Q4 2025 [3] - The industry notes current social interest in crypto is significantly lower compared to 2021 and 2017, indicating a different market dynamic [7] - The analysis suggests the recent Bitcoin bull market resembles the 2019 pattern, with a potential bare market rally to $100,000 before further decline into summer 2026 [9][10] - The report considers a scenario where Bitcoin's top occurred before the Federal Reserve's balance sheet expansion, similar to 2019, suggesting continued bleeding until significant monetary easing [14][15] Monetary Policy Impact - The analysis posits that substantial Bitcoin breakout requires looser monetary policy, likely triggered by an S&P 500 crash [16] - The report mentions the Federal Reserve chair is likely to be replaced in the summer of 2026, potentially leading to aggressive rate cuts [17] Bitcoin Dominance and Altcoins - The industry is bullish on Bitcoin dominance due to the end of quantitative tightening (QT), drawing parallels to 2019 [20][21] - The analysis anticipates a potential spike in Bitcoin dominance, followed by altcoin lows against Bitcoin until looser monetary policy is implemented [22] Potential Bare Market Scenarios - The report speculates on a bare market lasting until approximately October 2026, potentially resembling the 2019 pattern due to a non-euphoric top [23][26] - The analysis suggests a possible Bitcoin drop to $60,000-$70,000 by the summer, potentially marking a low before a rebound [35] - The industry notes Bitcoin tends to return to the 200-week moving average in midterm years, currently around $56,000 [34]

Core Viewpoint - The potential appointment of Kevin Hassett as Fed Chair alongside Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent could significantly alter U.S. monetary policy, impacting risk assets like stocks and Bitcoin while affecting savers and bondholders [1][2]. Group 1: Impact on Monetary Policy - The Bessent-Hassett duo may represent a fundamental shift from the post-2008 monetary regime, transforming the Federal Reserve into a liquidity tool aligned with Treasury policy [2][3]. - This alignment could prioritize growth over austerity, reminiscent of the 1940s and 1950s, potentially benefiting risk assets such as Bitcoin [3][5]. Group 2: Economic Growth Projections - Bessent predicts GDP growth of 4% or more in Q1 2026, driven by strong consumer activity and favorable macroeconomic trends [5]. - The sentiment suggests that coordinated policy efforts could enable economic growth, as shrinking a large debt load may not be feasible without risking systemic issues [5]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - Hassett has shown extreme bullishness towards equities and Bitcoin, being referred to as a "turbo dove" for risk assets by industry insiders [6].

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is facing a challenging environment characterized by a weakening labor market and rising prices, necessitating careful risk management in its upcoming meetings [3][4][6] - The Fed's decision-making process has become more democratic over time, with a notable shift in dynamics since the Greenspan era, allowing for more open discussions among committee members [7] Group 1: Current Economic Context - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on December 9 and 10 is expected to address the conflicting risks of labor market weakness and inflation, with policymakers relying on outdated government data due to recent cancellations of employment and inflation reports [3][5] - David Wilcox describes the current economic situation as unprecedented, likening it to driving with a foggy windshield, indicating the complexity and uncertainty faced by the Fed [4] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Internal Dynamics - The Federal Open Market Committee is currently divided, with some members advocating for interest rate cuts to support the labor market, while others prefer to maintain rates to prevent further inflation [6] - Investors and analysts anticipate a potential quarter-point interest rate cut, marking the third reduction this year, although the Fed chair has indicated that this outcome is not guaranteed [7]

What's going on guys? Today I got a great conversation with Darius Dale for you. In this conversation we talk about the deep divisions at the Federal Reserve. Are they going to cut rates in December? Who is going to be the next leader of the Federal Reserve? And how is the Fed actually impacting different asset prices? What is 42 macro doing to navigate all the chaos up, down, sideways, backwards? Prices are going everywhere. People are completely confused as to how the Fed is going to act. And the market i ...

Although the overall market is flat today, some momentum names staging a strong comeback such as quantum computing stocks and the Buzz ETF. So, are investors once again willing to take on riskier parts of the markets. Joining me now is Paulson Perspectives author Jim Pollson and Ariel Investments vice chairman Charlie Babrinskoy.Guys, welcome. Jim, you're concerned about economic growth here. What what's the impact potentially in the markets.Yeah, I I think that um I think the economy is fairly weak awardly ...

The odds for a rate cut at next week's meeting now 90% according to the bond market. But our next guest says the Fed should not be cutting. Joining us here is former CEA chair Jason Ferman who is now a professor at Harvard Kennedy School was in the Obama administration.It's great to have you Jason. Welcome. >> Great to be with you.>> You do not think the Fed should be cutting. >> Yes. First of all, I don't disagree.They are going to cut next week. >> But they have a dual mandate. They are about onetenth of ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has indicated that lower interest rates may not be forthcoming in December, despite some members advocating for cuts [1] - The Fed's official mandate includes full employment, price stability, and moderate interest rates, but there is an unspoken focus on labor markets and price levels [2] - A shift in thinking about monetary policy is necessary, as interest rates should reflect the value of capital over time rather than merely being seen as the price of money [3] Group 2 - Interest rates should adjust based on supply and demand in investment markets, and stability can hinder necessary flexibility [4] - The Fed does not directly set interest rates but establishes targets for short-term rates, which reflect its monetary policy stance [5] - Falling interest rates are often misinterpreted as a sign of looser monetary policy, but they can also indicate tighter policy when liquidity needs are not met [6][7] Group 3 - The Fed's interest rate targets are estimates aimed at achieving maximum employment and a stable dollar, but their accuracy depends on the Fed's economic models [8]