Core Insights - The trucking industry, particularly those involved in automotive transport, is facing significant volatility due to tariff-driven changes in freight volumes and supply chain adjustments [2][3][4] Group 1: Tariff Impact - The implementation of 25% tariffs on vehicles and parts manufactured outside the U.S. has forced automakers to modify their import strategies and supply chains to mitigate costs [3][4] - Automakers rushed to import vehicles and components before the tariffs took effect, leading to increased trucking and transportation demands as they stockpiled products [5][6] Group 2: Market Uncertainty - There is ongoing uncertainty regarding future market conditions, including the potential impact of tariffs on fleet growth and overall strategies for automotive carriers [2][6] - The initial surge in freight volumes experienced by larger carrier partners has normalized, but concerns about tariffs continue to influence discussions around vehicle orders for 2026 [6]

Group 1 - The S&P 500 has increased by 16% year to date, despite President Trump's tariffs reaching their highest level since the 1940s, indicating a disconnect between stock market performance and business fundamentals [2][3][9] - The Federal Reserve's research indicates that Trump's tariffs are likely to increase unemployment and slow economic growth, raising concerns about the sustainability of the current stock market valuation [3][8][9] - The S&P 500 is currently trading at a valuation above 23 times forward earnings, a level that has only been seen during two other periods in the last 40 years, suggesting potential overvaluation [3][9] Group 2 - Trump's tariffs are projected to generate $210 billion by 2026, which is insufficient to offset the $2.6 trillion in individual income tax collected last year or to fund $2,000 dividend checks for Americans, highlighting the unrealistic nature of these proposals [7][8] - Historical data from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco suggests that tariffs do not lead to increased wealth for America, instead resulting in higher unemployment and slower economic growth [5][8]

Economic Overview - The December 2025 UCLA Anderson Forecast indicates a dual economic trend in the U.S. and California, with strong AI investment and rising incomes among high-wealth households driving growth, while tariffs, immigration policies, and a weak labor market create headwinds [1][2][4] - The national economy is expected to soften through early 2026 before regaining strength later in the year, with projected AI-related investment in 2025 surpassing $405 billion, significantly higher than the initial estimate of $250 billion [4][7] California Economic Conditions - California's economy shows a bifurcated landscape, with high-productivity sectors like AI and aerospace expanding, while construction, non-durable goods, and leisure sectors face significant challenges [2][8] - The state continues to attract a disproportionate share of venture capital, with nearly 70% of U.S. venture funding in early 2025 directed to California [8] Employment and Labor Market - Employment growth has sharply slowed, with unemployment expected to rise to 4.5% by the end of 2025, while inflation is projected to peak at 3.5% in early 2026 [6][7] - California's unemployment rate has remained above 5.0% for over 19 months, with payroll job losses marking the first sustained decline since the pandemic [9][10] Housing and Construction - Housing remains a significant constraint, with subdued building permits despite high home prices and a need for new construction following recent wildfires [11] - The forecast anticipates gradual improvement in residential permits, with 101,000 expected in 2025 and 121,000 in 2027 [13] Future Projections - The forecast predicts a gradual improvement in economic conditions starting in late 2026, with unemployment rates expected to decrease from 5.5% in 2025 to 4.6% in 2027 [13] - Total employment growth is projected to be 0.6% in 2025, increasing to 2.0% by 2027 [13]

It is time now for money power politics. While the world waits to see if the Supreme Court strikes down the president's tariffs, Costco is not taking any chances. The very popular wholesaler is suing the Trump administration to get a full refund of new tariffs it paid so far this year.It is also looking to block any more import duties from being collected until a final decision is made by the nation's highest court. And dozens of other companies, but much smaller ones, have filed similar suits. Costco is th ...

Core Insights - Tariffs on steel and aluminum have significantly impacted U.S. manufacturing, particularly affecting equipment makers and farm machinery manufacturers due to increased input costs [1][2] - Deere & Company reported Q3 earnings of $3.93 per share on revenue of approximately $12.4 billion, exceeding sales expectations, but shares fell over 5% due to a projected $1.2 billion pre-tax tariff impact for fiscal 2026, nearly double the current year's effect [3][6] - The company's market value is around $125.6 billion, with a forward dividend payout of $6.48 per share and a yield of about 1.33%, supported by a dividend payout ratio of 32.95% [4] Financial Performance - Deere's fourth-quarter net income was approximately $1.065 billion, or $3.93 per share, compared to $1.245 billion, or $4.55 per share, a year earlier, slightly missing the $3.96 consensus [6] - Worldwide net sales and revenues increased by 11% to roughly $12.394 billion in the quarter, although full-year revenues decreased by 12% to about $45.684 billion due to cooling agricultural demand and margin pressures from tariffs [7] - The shares are trading around $468, reflecting a year-to-date increase of roughly 10% and a 1% rise over the past 52 weeks, with a valuation of approximately 24.18x forward earnings compared to a sector median of 20.33x [5][6]

Tonight, another showdown between Costco and President Trump. This time, not over politics, but over money. The retail giant suing the Trump administration for a full refund of the tariffs they've paid on imported goods under Trump's tariff plan.>> My fellow Americans, this is Liberation Day. >> The administration used the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, AIPA for short, to put the tariffs in place. But now, the Supreme Court will decide whether the use of this nearly 50year-old law was unlawful ...

Fiscal Policy Outlook - Next year is projected to be the largest tax refund season ever [1] - The government plans to issue dividends to the people, funded by tariff revenue [1][2] - The tariff revenue is estimated to be in the trillions of dollars [1] - The government aims to reduce debt alongside issuing dividends [1][2] Future Tax System - The government anticipates a future where income tax may be significantly reduced or eliminated due to substantial revenue intake [3] - The possibility of keeping income tax at a very low rate or for symbolic purposes is being considered [3]

Legal & Trade - Costco sued the Trump administration seeking a refund for tariffs paid [1] - The lawsuit is related to tariffs enacted, with the Supreme Court considering their legality [1]

The American manufacturing sector contracted for the ninth month in a row during November as it faced flagging order volumes, higher-priced inputs and cost pressures related to the United States government’s tariff policies. That’s according to the Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) purchasing managers index (PMI) report, which registered 48.2 percent last month—a 0.5 percent decrease from the 48.7 percent seen in October. More from Sourcing Journal New orders fell for a third consecutive month in N ...

These Companies Are Filing Fresh Lawsuits Over Trump’s Tariffs—Including Costco, Revlon And Morehttps://t.co/diVJOnQPad https://t.co/RPtpME1sw1 ...