Economic Outlook & GDP - Consensus view, including CBO and Fed, anticipates GDP growth slowdown due to tariffs and headwinds like student loan payments restarting [3][4] - Potential for stagflation exists if tariffs of $400 billion lead to either higher inflation or lower earnings [2][5] - US GDP growth may slow to 1%-15% in the next 12 months, but the US growth outlook remains stronger than other countries like Europe [14][15] Trade & Tariffs - Tariffs raising $400 billion could significantly impact S&P 500 earnings, potentially reducing them by 20% if companies absorb the costs [2] - Trade remains a significant risk factor, particularly regarding who bears the burden of the $400 billion in tariffs [2] US Dollar & Fed Policy - The dollar experienced a 10% decline in trade-weighted terms over the past six months [7] - The market's pricing for Fed rate cuts this year is considered too aggressive; only one rate cut is expected [8] - The Fed committee, not solely the chair, decides on interest rates and QE, limiting the chair's individual influence [11][12] - The outlook for the dollar in the second half of the year is brighter, partly due to Section 899 being resolved [6][15] Labor Market - The labor market is currently holding up well, with jobless claims remaining relatively stable [9][10]

All right, it's a holiday shortened trading week. Yay. And today is the last day of the second quarter.The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ both closing at record highs on Friday. So, let's talk markets right now with Stephanie Link, the chief investment strategist and portfolio manager at High Tower Advisor. She's also a CNBC contributor.Steph, we're looking at some pretty decentsized gains in the futures this morning. The Dow's up by 225 points coming after all the gains that we've seen recently. And I think when I ...

Let's bring in Max Kentner, HSBC's chief multi-asset strategist to talk about this close. Max, you know, I sit here the S&P 500 at 6142. It's a couple of points from the closing high from February 19th.Uh does it make sense that we're back here. Yeah. Um I think it does.It absolutely does because when we look at the earnings picture, that actually uh does really still look resoundingly good. And when we look particularly at uh forward earnings, when we look at Q2 earnings expectation, it is actually bizarre ...

As stocks continue to rise, we talked about this. The S&P is just like 17 points off a record high right now. And my next guest says the underlying trend remains positive for equities, including for the large caps, which she likes here.Kate Morris, CIO at City Wealth. Kate, anything about the Fed here affect your your view on stocks. Look, weak dollar is certainly got to be a boost, although maybe it's not about the Fed, as Muhammad just said.Yeah. Well, look, I think the equity market is looking past anyth ...

Market Sentiment and Earnings Guidance - The market rally is driven by sentiment, technical factors, and a fundamental case related to earnings [1] - Companies initially beat estimates significantly in the first quarter, but subsequently cut full-year guidance dramatically, creating uncertainty [2][3] - The market is rallying because earnings numbers may have been cut too much, and tariffs may not be as negative as initially anticipated [4] - Wall Street strategists have started to raise their targets for EPS and closing price targets, but only slightly [5] - The situation is reminiscent of the early stages of COVID-19, where companies withdrew guidance and Wall Street slashed earnings estimates, only to raise them later [7] - First quarter earnings beat estimates by approximately $4, but full-year guidance was reduced by $10, resulting in a $14 delta [7] Economic Outlook and Investment Strategy - A "little bull market" for stocks and a "little bear market" for bonds is anticipated, with stocks potentially benefiting from 1-2% economic growth despite tariffs and geopolitical unrest [8] - The estimate for next year's earnings is $300, but it may be too low because it doesn't fully reflect the potential margin enhancement from technologies like AI [9][10] - The fundamental story is turning out to be stronger than many predicted, suggesting a better bull market for earnings [11] Sector Preferences - World technology companies, particularly the "Mag Seven," are investing heavily in CapEx rollout, which is expected to pay off in the future [12][13] - There's a potential scenario where the rest of the world outperforms the S&P, and the S&P 493 outperforms the cap-weighted S&P this year, but the S&P cap rate could rebound next year as companies utilize new technologies [14]

Market Sentiment & Geopolitical Impact - Markets initially reacted to geopolitical events with de-risking, but the limited surge in oil prices suggests a lower risk of straits being closed [2][5] - Stress tests have been passed by the market, indicating potential for stocks to perform well [4] - Geopolitical events have not significantly altered growth and inflation expectations for US stocks, bonds, and the dollar [6] Inflation & Monetary Policy - US CPI, calculated on the same basis as the ECB's core CPI (excluding housing), is lower than Europe's, suggesting a potential dovish tilt from the Federal Reserve [6][7] - Inflation expectations are currently above CPI, which could lead to positive surprises if inflation is lower than expected [12] Market Dynamics & Investment Strategy - Consumer discretionary sector is leading market gains, while energy lags [1] - There are echoes of 2021 with some stocks receiving bizarre valuations, but institutional investors are less risk-taking due to macro uncertainties [8][9] - Retail investors, who bought the dip in April, are driving speculative activity, while high net worth individuals and institutions remain cautious [10] - Macro conditions are improving with better visibility on tariffs and regulation into 2026, supporting a bullish outlook [11] - Businesses have shown resilience, with earnings performing better despite potential economic weakening [12]

Back. It's a question almost every investor is thinking about given the uncertainty in the markets. Are stocks overvalued at current levels or not.Well, who better than the so-called Dean evaluation to weigh in. Oswerin of NYU Stern School of Business joins us now. It's good to see you.What What would your answer be. Well, if you thought stocks were fairly valued at the start of the year, you got to think they're fairly valued still because you come through a trial by fire. And it's amazing to me that stock ...

Market Trends & Investment Strategies - Nvidia shares are up 50% from their April low, outperforming other Mag 7 stocks [1] - The market bull trend is considered underway, but short-term concerns exist due to falling company guidance [2] - Selective stock picking within the Mag 7 is advised, with overweight stances in Microsoft and Amazon maintained, and adding to Apple expected [3][4] - Professional investors showed pessimism, but the market is near a new high, suggesting a time to be less fearful [4][5] Macroeconomic Factors & Policy Impacts - Potential transformational changes in tax policy, such as expensing capital expenditure on software, could monetize the AI trade beyond the MAG 7 [6] - Expected tariff rates are decreasing, which could lead to more guidance from companies and increased optimism from professional investors [6][7] - Uncertainty remains regarding the full impact of Trump's tariffs and immigration policies on various industries [8][9] - Despite concerns, GDP growth is at 38%, averaging 25% for the first and second quarters [10] Currency & International Markets - The US dollar has lost 10% of its value since President Trump took office, which can be seen as beneficial for multinationals or as a sign of declining faith in American exceptionalism [12] - International investors, particularly in Europe, have been overweight in European stocks, but there's a growing reluctance to buy US stocks [17][19] - The dollar's weakness is beginning to slow down, with a trend towards solidification [16] - The consensus at the beginning of the year was that the dollar was overvalued, predating recent political events [21]

Geopolitical Risk and Market Sentiment - Investor sentiment is a key factor influencing market reactions, with oil prices and defense stocks showing sensitivity to Middle East developments [1][2] - Market reactions to geopolitical news have become more subtle compared to previous months, indicating a shift from emotional responses to a "buy the news" mentality [2] - Defense stocks, such as RTX, Northrop Grumman, and Halliburton, experienced pre-market gains, suggesting a defensive trade strategy among investors amid geopolitical uncertainty [3][4] - The recent surge in defense stocks is viewed as a knee-jerk reaction to news, with historical trends indicating that such moves may not have long-term impacts [5][6] - Secular trends support defense stocks due to increased defense spending discussions in DC and NATO, but short-term movements are often knee-jerk reactions [7] Tech Sector Performance - The XLK tech ETF, heavily weighted by mega-cap tech companies like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple, hit all-time highs, with some components like IBM and Palantir also reaching new highs [8] - Investors tend to gravitate towards tech during technical rallies, viewing it as a defensive sector that performs well in both good and bad times [8][9] - Valuations in the tech sector are extended compared to value sectors and international markets, suggesting a need to consider fundamentals [9] Dollar Weakness and Earnings - A weaker dollar benefits multinational companies' earnings through translation effects and competitive advantages [11][12][13] - Small-cap companies with a domestic focus may not benefit as much from a weaker dollar [11] - The reasons behind dollar weakness are more important than the weakness itself; government actions like selling treasuries or punitive tariffs could negatively impact the dollar [14][15] - A slight dollar weakness from elevated levels can be beneficial for earnings and reflect a leveling out of domestic and foreign earnings [15]

So maybe Art, we'll start big picture here because I'm curious. Art, what is the latest Art Hogan target, year-end target for the S&P. Art, where are we.Yeah, so our target is 6200, which uh doesn't seem that aggressive in the here and now, but certainly felt aggressive uh back in April. So I I would tell you this. I think we've done a good job of going from a defensive first quarter where everyone was piling into things like consumer staples, utilities, healthcare, gold, and treasuries to where now we feel ...