The Cleveland Fed president worries more about inflation than a cooling labor market. ...

Economic Indicators - The dollar index fell by -0.49% on Thursday, influenced by a report showing US job cuts surged by 175% year-on-year in October, marking the largest increase in 22 years [1][3] - Year-to-date job cuts have exceeded 1 million, the highest since the pandemic, with employers announcing the fewest hiring plans since 2011 [3] Federal Reserve Outlook - Hawkish comments from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack indicated a preference for no additional Fed rate cuts, supporting the dollar [2][4] - Goolsbee expressed unease about ongoing interest rate cuts due to a lack of inflation data during the government shutdown, while Hammack emphasized concerns about high inflation and the need for a mildly restrictive monetary policy [4] Currency Movements - The euro rose by +0.49% on Thursday, supported by dollar weakness and optimistic comments from ECB Vice President Guindos regarding Eurozone growth [5] - However, negative factors for the euro included an unexpected decline in Eurozone retail sales and lower-than-expected German industrial production for September [5]

Cleveland Fed president Beth Hammack doubled down Thursday on her concerns about inflation, saying that it’s not obvious the central bank should cut rates further. “I remain concerned about high inflation and believe policy should be leaning against it,” Hammack said at the Economic Club of New York. “After last week’s meeting, I see monetary policy as barely restrictive, if at all, and it’s not obvious to me that monetary policy should do more at this time. But the future is inherently uncertain, and I’m ...

Core Viewpoint - The central banker expresses skepticism regarding the Federal Reserve's ability to implement further interest-rate cuts due to ongoing inflation and the effects of previous monetary easing from completed rate cuts [1] Summary by Relevant Categories - **Interest Rates** - The central banker doubts the feasibility of additional interest-rate cuts by the Fed [1] - **Inflation** - Persistent inflation remains a significant concern that influences the central bank's decision-making process [1] - **Monetary Policy** - Previous rate cuts have already contributed to monetary easing, which complicates the potential for future cuts [1]

Core Insights - U.S. Physical Therapy's shares fell 11.5% following the release of third-quarter results, indicating declining year-over-year profitability despite revenue exceeding expectations [1][2] Financial Performance - The company reported adjusted earnings of $0.66 per share, matching analyst estimates but down from $0.69 per share in the same quarter last year [2] - Revenue increased by 17.3% year-on-year to $197.1 million, surpassing Wall Street forecasts [2] - The decline in per-share earnings and a slight miss on adjusted EBITDA raised concerns among investors, overshadowing strong sales growth [2] Market Reaction - The stock's significant drop is notable as U.S. Physical Therapy's shares are generally not very volatile, with only four moves greater than 5% in the past year [4] - The current stock price of $79.78 represents a 20.1% decline from its 52-week high of $99.91 recorded in December 2024 [6] - Year-to-date, the stock is down 9.2%, and an investment of $1,000 made five years ago would now be worth $871.16 [6]

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Group 1: Layoffs and Job Market - Over 1 million people have been laid off in the US this year, marking a 65% increase compared to the same period in 2024 and 44% more than the total job cuts announced in all of last year [1] - In October, US employers cut more than 150,000 jobs, the largest reduction for the month in over 20 years, driven by technology and warehousing sectors [3][31] - The rise in layoffs is attributed to the adoption of artificial intelligence, slower consumer spending, and hiring freezes [7][85] Group 2: Market Reactions and Stock Performance - The stock market has reacted negatively to the surge in layoffs, with major indices like the Nasdaq falling by 1.9% and the S&P 500 down by 1.2% [5][17] - Concerns over the valuation of tech stocks have led to significant sell-offs, with over $420 billion wiped off the value of the largest seven US tech companies [6] - Notable declines in tech stocks include AMD down 7.1%, Intel down 3.8%, and Nvidia down 3.3% [4][5] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Predictions - The current job cuts are the highest since 2020, indicating a potential downturn in the economy [6] - The Bank of England has maintained interest rates at 4%, with expectations of potential cuts in the future depending on inflation trends [12][73] - Economic forecasts suggest that the unemployment rate in the UK could rise to 5.1% by spring next year, higher than previous predictions [70]

Economic Outlook & Political Disconnect - The report highlights a disconnect between perceived economic reality and political narratives, where leaders may present an overly optimistic view that doesn't align with the struggles of working Americans [3][4][5][6][7][8] - The analysis suggests that voters are more influenced by their personal economic experiences (e g, affording groceries, rent) than by broad economic narratives or stock market performance [5][6][7][8] - The report mentions a CNN poll indicating that over 70% of people in the country believe the nation is headed in the wrong direction, primarily due to economic concerns [8] Policy & Impact - The document touches upon the impact of policies like tariffs, noting that despite claims of their benefits, many individuals feel they negatively affect their ability to afford essential goods [8] - The report references a narrative of factories, AI, and auto plants returning to the US, suggesting a positive shift in the economy [1] Political Strategy & Perception - The analysis points out the use of narratives in politics, where repeating a message can influence public perception, but this strategy may fail when it contradicts people's lived experiences [6][7] - The report suggests that voters react negatively to leaders who portray an overly positive economic picture while ignoring the financial difficulties faced by many [5]

We start off with the tough NASDAQ selloff, right. And that quickly bled over to the larger averages almost instantly. I'm not kidding.Within 15 minutes of the opening, we heard that the bull last legs. That's right. And here comes the big unwind as large cap tech starts rolling over.We are then told, of course, that the multi-month rally was bogus all along. Just a short squeeze because the Fed's going to crush us again the next time it tightens. We were told the market was about to get its comeuppins.Yet ...

Group 1 - Gold prices have steadied as traders assess comments from Federal Reserve officials and data indicating a significant weakening in the US jobs market, which raises the possibility of lower interest rates [1][3] - US companies have reported the highest number of job cuts for any October in over 20 years, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc, contributing to a weaker dollar [2][4] - The current economic conditions are difficult to evaluate due to the longest government shutdown in US history, which has delayed key official data [4] Group 2 - Gold is on track for its best annual performance since 1979, with prices supported by US rate cuts, inflows into bullion-backed ETFs, and increased central bank purchases [5] - Economists at Macquarie Group predict a decline in gold prices over the coming year after a 50% year-to-date rally, citing factors such as rebounding global growth and easing tensions between the US and China [6] - Macquarie suggests that any decline in gold prices will be slower than previous peaks, with prices expected to remain above $2,000 an ounce throughout Donald Trump's presidency, although geopolitical tensions could lead to further rallies [7]