Market Overview - US stock futures are pulling back after a record run on Wall Street, with all three major indices closing at new highs, particularly the Dow closing above 46,000 for the first time [1][8] - Investors are awaiting the University of Michigan sentiment index for insights into the American consumer [1] - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by a quarter of a percent in the upcoming September meeting [2][12] Trade Relations - Mexico has raised tariffs on Chinese-made vehicles to 50%, prompting a strong response from China [2][3] - The US is urging G7 allies to impose tariffs as high as 100% on China and India for their purchases of Russian oil [2] Company Earnings - Adobe reported strong earnings and guidance for profit and revenue, with annual recurring revenue from AI-influenced products exceeding $5 billion [4][5][28] - Super Micro is benefiting from Nvidia's volume shipments of its Blackwell Ultra solutions, enhancing its high-performance computing infrastructure [30] - RH, the upscale furniture retailer, has cut its revenue forecast for the year due to impacts from new US tariffs, now expecting a revenue increase of 9% to 11% [31] IPO Activity - A wave of IPOs is occurring, including companies like Gemini and CLA, with many recent IPOs priced above their expected range [21][24] - Recent IPOs have shown significant first-day pops, although not as extreme as earlier in the season, indicating more accurate pricing by underwriters [25][26] Gold Market - Gold has reached all-time highs, surpassing its inflation-adjusted high from 1980, solidifying its status as a safe haven and inflation hedge [19][20] Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs highlights potential risks in the market, including a possible recessionary dynamic in the labor market and the potential for growth to hold up, which could lead to rising yields [15][17] - The market is currently pricing in expectations of multiple rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a total of 100 basis points expected by January [12][13]

Market Overview - The Australian share market rose 0.7% to 8864.9 points, driven by bullish hopes for lower interest rates in the United States [1] - Ten out of eleven sectors ended higher, with significant gains in the property sector, banks, and major miners, while energy stocks experienced declines [1] Property Sector - The property sector increased by 1.3%, with notable performances from Goodman Group (up 2% to $34.37), Scentre (up 1.5% to $4.20), and Stockland (up 1.4% to $6.35) [2] - The banking sector also saw a rise, with Commonwealth Bank increasing by 1.3% to $169.97, contributing to a 1.2% overall sector gain [2] Banking Sector - NAB shares rose by 1.2% to $43.54, Westpac increased by 1.4% to $38.48, and ANZ was up 1.1% to $33.19 [3] - The banking sector's performance was influenced by job losses, which paradoxically led to higher share prices [2] Mining Sector - The materials sector rose by over 1%, with BHP up 1.3% to $40.81, Rio Tinto up 1.1% to $115.44, and Fortescue Metals up 0.86% to $18.80 [3] Gold Stocks - Gold stocks performed exceptionally well, with Regis Resources up 6.4% to $5.80, Bellevue Gold up 7.2% to 97¢, and Capricorn Metals up 3.8% to $12.32 [4] - The rise in gold prices, reaching as high as US$3,639 an ounce, was attributed to uncertainty surrounding US inflation [4] Energy Sector - The energy sector faced challenges due to lower crude oil prices, with Woodside Energy shares down 3.4% to $24.22 and Santos down 2.2% to $7.59 [5] - APA Group shares increased by 0.3% to $8.96 following a draft decision by the Australian Energy Regulator affecting revenue forecasts [5] Virgin Australia - Virgin Australia's shares rose by 0.3% to $3.22 despite a $50 million final payout to former CEO Jayne Hrdlicka, indicating strong market performance [6] Upcoming Central Bank Actions - The US Federal Reserve is expected to cut the Federal Funds Rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4% to 4.25%, which could significantly impact market sentiment [7][8] - The Bank of Canada is also anticipated to cut rates by 25 basis points to 2.5%, while the Bank of England and Bank of Japan are expected to maintain their current rates [9] Dividend Payments - An additional $2.4 billion in dividends will be paid out in Australia, which may put pressure on share prices as companies begin trading ex-dividend [10]

Group 1 - Investors are anticipating the Federal Reserve to signal concerns regarding the weakening U.S. labor market at the upcoming meeting, with expectations for a rate cut for the first time in nine months to support employment [1][2] - The size of the expected rate cut remains uncertain, with a 90% chance of a 25 basis points reduction and a 10% chance of a larger 50 basis points cut [4] - The Fed's potential rate cuts have contributed to record highs in major U.S. stock indexes, with the S&P 500 up 12% so far in 2025, driven by factors such as artificial intelligence, strong corporate earnings, and reduced fears over economic impacts from tariffs [3] Group 2 - Historical data indicates that 60% of the 55 rate reductions since 1990 have been 25 basis points cuts, while 18 instances of 50 basis points cuts typically occurred during or after recessions, suggesting a 50 basis points cut would indicate significant concern for the U.S. economy [5] - Current market expectations suggest nearly 73 basis points of easing by December, indicating a trend towards multiple rate cuts [6] - Recent inflation data showed a 2.9% annual increase in the consumer price index, the largest monthly rise since January, which has made the Fed cautious about potential inflationary pressures from tariffs [7]

Market Overview - U.S. stocks are near record levels, with the S&P 500 down less than 0.1% from its all-time high, the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 273 points (0.6%), and the Nasdaq composite increasing by 0.4% [1] Federal Reserve Expectations - There are rising expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut its main interest rate for the first time this year, which could stimulate the economy and has already led to a drop in mortgage rates [2] - Recent reports suggest the U.S. job market may be stabilizing, which could convince the Fed to provide support without triggering a recession or runaway inflation [3] Inflation Outlook - Investors and analysts believe inflation is not on the verge of a surge, with a University of Michigan survey indicating consumer expectations for inflation remain steady at 4.8% for the upcoming year [5] - Long-term inflation expectations have increased slightly but remain below levels seen in April when tariffs were announced [6] Company Performance - RH (Restoration Hardware) shares fell 4.6% after reporting profits and revenues below analysts' expectations and lowering its revenue forecast due to tariff uncertainty and a weak housing market [7] - Oracle's stock dropped 5.1%, becoming the largest detractor from the S&P 500 index, although it had previously surged due to excitement over its multibillion-dollar AI contracts [7]

Time now for money power politics. Today we got two key pieces of information about where our economy is headed. Last month, consumer prices rose by almost 3%.That is the biggest gain since January. Jobless claims also hit a 4-year high. This all comes ahead, of course, next week's Fed meeting where they are widely expected to cut rates.And the markets clearly think those cuts are still coming. Despite today's news on inflation and the labor market, what did the market do. It went up.Joining me now to discu ...

Inflation Overview - The consumer price index (CPI) rose 2.9% year over year in August compared to 2.7% in July, with a month-over-month increase of 0.4% compared to July's 0.2% [2] - Core CPI remained unchanged, reflecting a 0.3% monthly and 3.1% annual increase, indicating stability in underlying inflation trends [2] Shelter Costs - Shelter costs increased by 0.4% in August, contributing significantly to the CPI's monthly rise, with rent up by 0.3% and lodging away from home rising by 2.3% [4] - Homebuilder stocks, such as Toll Brothers (TOL), may become more attractive as rising rent prices could drive more buyers to the market, especially with mortgage rates at their lowest in a year [5] Food Prices - Overall monthly food costs rose by 0.5% and 2.7% annually, with food at home increasing by 0.6% monthly and food away from home by 0.3% monthly [7] - Retailers like Walmart (WMT) may benefit from the increase in food costs, while premium dining establishments like Chipotle (CMG) are experiencing reduced consumer spending [9][10] Energy Sector - Monthly energy costs increased by 0.7% and were up 2.2% year over year, driven by a 1.9% rise in gasoline prices [11] - Oil companies such as Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) could capitalize on higher energy prices, especially if geopolitical tensions affect crude oil supply [12] Transportation Services - Used car and truck prices rose by 1.0% monthly and 6.0% annually, while airline fares increased by 5.9% month over month [13] - Long-term investment opportunities may arise in major automakers like General Motors (GM) and airlines like Delta Air Lines (DAL), which are expected to navigate inflationary pressures effectively [14] Apparel Industry - Apparel costs increased by 0.5% monthly and 0.2% annually, indicating tariff-driven inflation [15] - Companies with strong brand recognition and pricing power, such as Ralph Lauren (RL), may perform better despite overall consumer spending declines in the apparel sector [15][16]

Market Overview - The market is experiencing a bullish trend, with major indexes reaching record levels, including the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 1.36%, S&P 500 up 0.85%, and Nasdaq Composite up 0.72% [3] - Softer economic data, including a surprise increase in weekly jobless claims and a revision of nonfarm payrolls, may lead the Federal Reserve to consider cutting interest rates [2] Investor Sentiment - Many investors remain skeptical about the market's upward movement, often holding bearish views since the Great Recession [4] - There is a growing concern among money managers about the U.S.'s economic backdrop, including rising national debt and geopolitical tensions [4] Stock Performance - Despite broader concerns, individual stocks are identified as having potential for growth, with some currently perceived as "cheap" likely to appreciate in value [5] - The IPO market is thriving, and notable stock movements, such as Oracle's significant rally, highlight opportunities for investment [5] Future Outlook - If bearish investors do not shift their stance and begin buying, they risk losing clients to other investment opportunities [6]

Inflation & Monetary Policy - Core PCE number is expected to remain close to 3%, posing a challenge [3] - The labor market shows signs of weakening, influencing the Federal Reserve's considerations [3][4][5] - Market anticipates the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut rates by 50 basis points in September, but now expects three rate cuts this year instead of two [7] Market Sentiment & Performance - Bullish market sentiment is likely to persist, supported by new all-time highs in the US and overseas [6][8] - Investors are actively seeking reasons to sell stocks, but market conditions may continue to support and propel them [8] Economic Factors & Consumer Behavior - AI is projected to contribute approximately 0.5 percentage points to GDP growth through increased capital expenditure [9] - Wealth gains primarily benefit upper-income consumers, with limited impact on lower-income consumers [9][10] - Tighter inventories, partly due to tariffs, may sustain price pressures during the holiday shopping season [11] Retail & Home Furnishings - The home furnishings sub-industry within the S&P 1500, driven by companies like Wayfair, RH, and William Sonoma, has shown strong performance [12][13] - Lower interest rates and people spending more time at home are driving upgrades to home interiors [13]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump's legal team is seeking to expedite the process of removing Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook before the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which is crucial for interest rate decisions [1][2][4]. Group 1: Legal Proceedings - Trump's lawyers have filed a request with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit to allow his attempt to fire Cook to proceed before the FOMC meeting next week [1][2]. - A lower-court judge had previously blocked Trump's attempt to remove Cook while her lawsuit against him is ongoing [1][4]. - The appeal seeks a ruling by Monday afternoon to influence the FOMC's decisions regarding open market activities [2]. Group 2: Economic Implications - Trump is advocating for a reduction in interest rates to stimulate economic growth and lower the costs associated with national debt [3]. - He has expressed dissatisfaction with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell for not lowering rates in 2025 and has previously considered firing him [3]. Group 3: Allegations and Responses - Trump cited allegations of mortgage fraud against Cook as justification for her removal, although Cook has denied these allegations [4]. - Trump anticipates that he will soon have a majority on the Fed board that will support lowering interest rates [4]. Group 4: Federal Reserve Independence - The judge's ruling emphasized the importance of Federal Reserve independence, suggesting that reinstating Cook serves the public interest [5].

Recent report from Moody's states that 33% of states in the US they are already in recession territory. It looks like Texas, California, Florida, New York, and North Carolina are responsible for majority of the economic growth happening right now. It makes sense the economic growth happening in these areas because of the tech sector.But the fact that we're not seeing growth in other states, that's less than ideal. So, add in the fact that the S&P 500's price to book value is now higher than it was in the 20 ...