曾经被视作炙手可热的香饽饽，人们争相抢购，恨不得倾囊所有的房产，如今却让许多拥有多套房产的家庭如坐针毡，措手不及。楼市风向的骤然转变，如 同突如其来的寒流，让这些家庭感受到了前所未有的压力。 回想当年，房价如日中天，购房者仿佛被甜蜜的汁液所吸引，即使背负沉重的债务，也依然干劲十足。然而，世事变迁，唯一不变的便是变化本身。当房价 下跌的趋势显现，心态也随之急转直下，每个月高昂的房贷不再是收益的来源，而变成了沉重的负担。闲置的房屋难以出售，出租的价格也远不如预期，再 加上每月必须缴纳的物业费，多重压力让人喘不过气。 事实上，房地产市场早已今非昔比，只涨不跌的神话已经彻底破灭。早在2018年，眼光独到的李嘉诚就曾预言，未来五年房价将面临一场大洗牌，告诫炒房 客们务必谨慎。然而，当时的市场一片火热，许多人对此不以为然。七年光阴荏苒，全国百城二手房价已连续29个月下跌，二手房挂牌量更是激增至15万套 以上，足以证明李嘉诚预言的准确性。 一组冰冷的数据揭示了残酷的现实：中国城镇家庭中，高达41.5%的家庭拥有两套及以上住房。这些家庭正无可避免地承受着三种令人难以接受的结局。 最重要的是保持积极乐观的心态。房地产市场的调整 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is undergoing a significant adjustment, leading to a dilemma for many regarding whether to sell properties or hold onto them, with opinions divided between pessimists predicting price drops and optimists believing in a policy bottom [1][12]. Market Overview - The real estate market is currently in a deep adjustment phase, with urban housing vacancy rates soaring to 21.8%, far exceeding the internationally recognized reasonable level of 5% [4]. - Over half of the new residential properties in 70 major cities have seen year-on-year price declines, with the highest drop reaching 7.9% [4]. - The average transaction cycle for properties has extended to 97 days, indicating a significant decrease in liquidity [5]. Properties to Consider Selling - Old properties in third and fourth-tier cities should be approached with caution due to ongoing population outflow and industrial decline, which may lead to long-term depreciation [6]. - Properties with high debt pressure are concerning, as the average mortgage burden for Chinese households reached 41.3% in 2024, surpassing the international warning line of 40% [6]. - Non-owner-occupied "chicken rib" properties, especially if multiple similar properties are held, may be candidates for sale to optimize asset allocation [6]. Properties to Hold - High-quality properties in core cities, particularly first-tier and some strong second-tier cities, are recommended for retention due to their robust long-term value retention capabilities [7]. - Owner-occupied properties, especially first homes that serve essential living functions, should not be sold lightly [7]. - Properties benefiting from policy incentives, particularly those in urban renewal areas or meeting "good housing" standards, are likely to enjoy advantages from recent government measures [7]. Conclusion - There is no one-size-fits-all answer regarding whether to sell properties in the current market; decisions should be based on individual circumstances [10]. - The era of rising real estate prices is over, and the future market will exhibit more pronounced differentiation [12].

对房地产市场的未来走向，房价的涨跌，无疑是人们普遍关注的焦点。各界人士，无论是行业专家还是商业巨擘，都曾对此做出预测。然而，若论及权威 性，恐怕还需从业内人士的真知灼见。他们在房地产行业深耕多年，积累了丰富的经验，其判断往往具有前瞻性。例如，李嘉诚近年来频繁降价促销，实则 已预示了市场的变化。 然而，王石依然对房地产行业的未来充满信心，他认为市场最终会逐步回归健康的发展轨道，更有可能实现软着陆，而不是像日本那样硬着陆。同时，王石 也特别提醒，中国楼市具有政策导向性，政府的调控力度和影响力是日本无法比拟的。当前，国家正不断推出房地产利好政策，鼓励刚需购房，以减轻市场 压力。住建部已将"持续用力推动房地产市场止跌企稳"作为2025年的首要任务，预计未来政策有望继续宽松，力度也可能会加大，例如进一步优化核心城市 限制性政策，降低房贷利率、首付比例和交易税费等。 王石的观点与李嘉诚的看法基本一致，他们都建议，对于有自住需求的购房者，可以考虑在一线城市核心区域选择优质地段的房产，但务必避免高杠杆，充 分评估自身的长期还款能力。 早在2018年，王石就提出了"活下去、活得久、活得好"的发展理念，当时很多人对此不以为然，认 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market is undergoing significant changes, with a notable decline in property prices and a shift in buyer sentiment, leading to a reevaluation of investment strategies [1][5][8] Group 1: Market Trends - Property prices in cities like Shenzhen and Shanghai have decreased by approximately 30%, while in some northeastern cities, prices have dropped to extremely low levels [1] - The total housing stock in China has surpassed 600 million units, far exceeding the current population demand of 1.4 billion, indicating a fundamental shift in supply and demand dynamics [1] - Urbanization is contributing to a decline in new housing demand, with projections indicating a decrease of 2.63 million elementary school students by 2026, further signaling a shrinking demand side [2] Group 2: Policy Changes - A dual-track system for affordable and commercial housing is being established, with plans to introduce 6 million affordable housing units over the next five years, affecting the commercial housing market [2] - The proportion of existing home sales has increased significantly, from 10.5% in 2020 to an expected 26.5% in 2024, reducing the risk of unfinished projects for buyers [4] Group 3: Buyer Sentiment - The mindset of buyers is shifting, with a notable decrease in the willingness of younger generations to purchase high-priced homes, leading to a buyer's market [4][5] - By 2025, the number of second-hand homes listed in 100 cities is expected to exceed 3 million, reflecting a significant change in purchasing intentions among the 90s generation [4] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Certain types of properties are still considered valuable investments, including renovated older neighborhoods, quality properties in core areas, and well-equipped new homes [5][6] - Emerging areas with improving infrastructure are attracting young families and are seen as having significant appreciation potential, despite currently lower prices [8]

"朋友几年前咬牙买下的两居室，单价接近5万元，如今挂牌1.5万/平米，连看房的人都寥寥无几。" 这不是网络段子，而是某一线城市业主在本地论坛发出的真实声音。曾经被视为"只涨不跌"的房产，如 今正经历价值重估。不少早期入市的业主发现，自己持有的资产不仅未能实现"保值增值"，反而面 临"流动性枯竭"的困境。 01 从"疯涨"到"冰冻"，一线非核心区房价快速回调 国家统计局最新数据显示，2025年上半年，全国新建商品住宅销售面积同比下降12.7%，多个重点城市 二手房挂牌量同比增长超三成，但成交周期大幅拉长。 以某地铁沿线新区为例，2020年高峰期新房单价逼近5万元。2024年已有业主以3.2万/平米挂牌试探市 场，而进入2025年，开发商直接以1.8万/平米起的价格促销，附赠车位、装修，仍难以拉动销售。 "总价缩水一半并不罕见，但即便这样也找不到接盘者，"一位资深中介透露，"部分项目售楼处已基本 停运，销售人员大量转行。" 02 "不是缺钱，是缺信心"：购房逻辑发生根本转变 楼市低迷的背后，并非完全源于购买力减弱。中国人民银行2025年第二季度储户问卷调查报告显示，倾 向于"更多储蓄"的居民占比较上季度提高2.3 ...

Group 1 - The leadership of China State Construction Fourth Engineering Division (CSCEC Fourth Bureau) has undergone significant changes, with Yi Wenquan stepping down as Chairman and Party Secretary, and Zhou Sheng taking over the roles [1][3] - Zhou Sheng, aged 47, has a background in various managerial positions within the company, including General Manager of CSCEC Algeria and Deputy General Manager of CSCEC Third Bureau [1][3] - The official reason for the leadership change was initially stated as "due to age reasons," but this wording was later removed from the announcement [1][3] Group 2 - CSCEC Fourth Bureau has notable projects in the construction sector, including landmark buildings such as Guangzhou East Tower and Shenzhen Kingkey 100, but lacks a strong real estate development brand compared to its peers [3][5] - The company has rebranded its real estate development platform to CSCEC Fourth Bureau Urban Development Investment Co., aiming to adapt to the challenging real estate market [3][5] - The company reported total assets of approximately 171.7 billion yuan and a net profit of 758.2 million yuan for 2024, ranking sixth among its peers in terms of net profit [5][6] Group 3 - Zhou Sheng emphasized the need for structural adjustments and system rebuilding to expand business opportunities, focusing on optimizing human resource management and enhancing employee performance [7] - The company aims to explore new business markets, particularly in project management, urban renewal, and urban operation, to drive growth [4][7]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate industry is undergoing a deep adjustment period, with over 60% of listed companies expected to report losses in the first half of 2025, indicating significant challenges for the sector [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Performance - As of August 18, 2025, 72 real estate companies listed on A-shares released their mid-year performance forecasts, with 46 companies expected to incur losses, accounting for over 60% [1]. - In July 2025, the National Bureau of Statistics reported a narrowing decline in housing prices across major cities, suggesting a potential stabilization in the market, although the industry remains in a state of adjustment [2]. - The highest expected loss for a single company in the first half of 2025 is projected to be between 10 billion to 12 billion yuan, indicating a worsening situation compared to the previous year [2]. Group 2: Characteristics of Profitable Companies - Despite the overall downturn, some companies like Poly Developments, Hangzhou Binjiang Group, and Longfor Group are expected to maintain positive net profits, with Poly Developments projecting a net profit of 2.735 billion yuan, down 63.15% year-on-year [4]. - The profitable companies exhibit three main characteristics: successful project deliveries, stable operational business contributions, and regional advantages in favorable markets [4][5]. - Longfor Group reported a significant increase in operational revenue, achieving approximately 14.15 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a historical high for the company [4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The real estate market is still experiencing pressure, with a calculated inventory of 30.927 million square meters in 50 key cities, leading to a depletion cycle of approximately 21.82 months [7]. - The end of rapid growth in development business compels companies to accelerate their transformation towards operational business, seeking new growth points [7]. - Industry experts anticipate that policies aimed at market recovery will continue to be implemented, focusing on urban village renovations and high-quality housing supply, which may provide opportunities for companies to stabilize cash flow and enhance operational income [8].

在风云变幻的楼市中，万科创始人王石的每一次发声，都如同掷地有声的重锤，引人深思。与那些粉饰太平的言论不 同，他的观点总是直指核心，不留情面。最近，他又抛出了一枚"重磅炸弹"——"年轻人，与其买房，不如租房"，"国内 楼市，还会经过较长时间的调整"，"还能坚持的房企，不足三分之一"。在对未来楼市的预测中，他的话无疑再次成为了 众人瞩目的焦点。 05、买房人要理性：机会在"理智"之后 王石提醒购房者，要保持理性，机会往往蕴藏在冷静的思考之后。他强调，房地产的角色已经发生了根本性的转变。过 去，房子被视为一种"资产"，一种"赚钱的工具"，而现在，它更多地回归到"居住需求"和"生活品质"的本质。买房的逻辑 也随之改变，不再是为了追求升值，而是为了获得一份"安心居住"的归属感。"抄底"不再是一种稳赚不赔的游戏。 未来的购房决策，需要更加注重"品质、品牌、风险"，切莫再盲目迷信房价上涨的神话。尤其是在楼市转型的大背景 下，许多房子仅仅是"居住的工具"，未必能成为保值增值的"资产"。买房不仅要考虑未来的升值空间，更要审视自身能 否承受房价下跌的风险。只有做好了充分的心理准备，才能在楼市的变局中保持清醒，做出明智的选择。 0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is experiencing significant declines in property values, driven by various economic and demographic factors, leading to a shift in consumer behavior and investment strategies [2][4][12]. Group 1: Market Trends - Nationally, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 4.0% year-on-year from January to July [4]. - In Shenzhen, those who believed in a market rebound have seen losses of around 10% this year [4]. - Property prices have dropped over 30% in some areas, with average prices falling from over 90,000 to over 60,000 [4]. Group 2: Economic Factors - Income levels have declined due to the pandemic, leading to reduced purchasing power and increased financial strain on individuals [4][5]. - The aging population is increasing, with over 310 million elderly people, leading to a decrease in housing demand as many retirees may sell their homes to improve their quality of life [5]. - The declining birth rate is contributing to a supply-demand imbalance in the housing market [5]. Group 3: Changing Consumer Behavior - Younger generations are increasingly opting for renting over buying, with changing societal norms around marriage and homeownership [7]. - The introduction of policies allowing rental rights for school admissions has further shifted perceptions about homeownership [7]. - Economic uncertainty has led to decreased confidence in purchasing homes, with potential buyers hesitant to commit due to fears of job stability and income [7][8]. Group 4: Market Liquidity - The current market is characterized by a significant oversupply of properties, with many listings remaining unsold for months [8]. - In major cities, properties in core areas have seen price reductions of around 30% from peak levels [8]. - The secondary housing market is facing challenges, with a large number of listings and limited buyer interest, particularly in less desirable locations [8]. Group 5: Holding Costs - The costs associated with owning multiple properties are rising, including maintenance fees and potential new taxes [9][10]. - New regulations are expected to increase transparency in property taxation, which may lead to higher costs for landlords [9][10]. Group 6: Strategic Recommendations - For first-time buyers, it is advised to focus on personal housing needs rather than market fluctuations, as current conditions may offer favorable purchasing opportunities [12]. - Investors are cautioned to reconsider their strategies, as most properties will primarily serve as residences rather than investment vehicles [12]. - Those holding multiple properties should reassess their asset management strategies, considering selling underperforming assets and leveraging quality properties for rental income [13][15].

Group 1: Market Trends - The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicates a significant adjustment in the real estate market, with only 6 cities experiencing a month-on-month increase in new residential property prices, the lowest since the implementation of major policies last September [1] - From January to July, real estate development investment decreased by 12.0% year-on-year, while the sales area and sales revenue of new residential properties fell by 4.0% and 6.5%, respectively, highlighting a weakening effect of the "price for volume" strategy [1] - The area of new housing starts saw a substantial decline of 19.4%, further exacerbating market pessimism [1] Group 2: Performance of Major Cities - Shanghai stands out as the only first-tier city with a continuous month-on-month increase in new residential property prices for 10 consecutive months, with July sales reaching 31.4 billion yuan, where luxury properties contributed 41% of total sales [4] - In contrast, Beijing's market remains weak despite some luxury projects boosting sales, while Guangzhou has not seen any month-on-month price increases for 10 months, and Shenzhen continues to experience a widening decline [4] - Among 31 major second-tier cities, only Urumqi and Changchun reported month-on-month price increases, with cities like Chengdu and Hangzhou also facing declines [4] Group 3: Policy Responses - Despite efforts from central and local governments to stabilize the market, the response has been lukewarm, with policies such as expanding affordable housing supply in population inflow cities failing to reverse the downward trend [5] - Beijing's recent easing of purchase restrictions outside the Fifth Ring Road did not address more impactful measures like core area restrictions or mortgage rates, leading to perceptions of passive rather than proactive policy adjustments [5] - The recovery of market confidence faces multiple challenges, including limited effectiveness of the "price for volume" strategy in the second-hand market and weak demand in the new housing market [5]