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受最新关税升级影响,黄金价格在亚盘一度上冲,随后回撤至3325美元后寻得支撑,并再次测试日内高点。VIP盯盘神器显示,黄金多空订单比呈现中性偏空,情绪转折点可能在3340美元左右。支撑位:15分钟的实盘订单流数据显示,3326的位置存在大量买盘,构成短期较强支撑。阻力位:指标共振点(15分钟)显示,下方最强支撑位在3321,结合上方的大量买盘,此处不破有望进一步上攻。具体见“VIP专区-盯盘神器”。
news flash· 2025-07-11 03:22
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that gold prices are experiencing fluctuations due to the latest tariff escalations, with a notable test of intraday highs [1] - Gold prices initially surged but then retreated to $3325, where support was found before testing intraday highs again [1] - The VIP monitoring tool shows a neutral to bearish order ratio for gold, suggesting a potential turning point around $3340 [1] Group 2 - Support levels are identified, with significant buying interest at $3326, indicating strong short-term support [1] - Resistance levels are highlighted, with the strongest support at $3321, suggesting that if this level holds, further upward movement is possible [1]
在延续了周三的反弹后,当前现货黄金即将遭遇最强阻力压制。盯盘神器显示,黄金市场此处偏空,做空比例更高。同时资金炸弹提示,当前有大量资金出场。支撑位:15分钟的实盘订单流数据显示,3316的位置存在大量买盘,构成短期较强支撑。阻力位:指标共振点(1小时)显示,上方最强阻力位在3328,若未能上破此处,短线或存在回调可能。具体见“VIP专区-盯盘神器”。
news flash· 2025-07-10 08:20
Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the gold market is facing strong resistance, making upward movement difficult [1] - Current market sentiment is bearish, with a higher ratio of short positions in the gold market [1] - Significant capital is exiting the market, as indicated by the "fund bomb" alert [1] Group 2 - The support level is identified at 3316, where there is substantial buying interest, providing short-term support [1] - The strongest resistance level is at 3328, and failure to break above this level may lead to a potential pullback [1]
金属期权策略早报-20250710
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-07-10 06:41
Report Summary 1. Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The metal sector is divided into non - ferrous metals, precious metals, and black metals. Different options strategies and suggestions are provided for selected varieties in each sector based on the analysis of underlying market conditions, option factor research, and option strategy recommendations [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - For various metal options, information such as the latest price, price change, percentage change, trading volume, volume change, open interest, and open interest change of the underlying contracts is presented. For example, the latest price of copper (CU2508) is 78,330, with a decrease of 580 and a decline rate of 0.74% [3]. 3.2 Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR data of different metal options are provided, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market. For instance, the volume PCR of copper is 0.75 with a change of - 0.12, and the open interest PCR is 0.61 with a change of - 0.06 [4]. 3.3 Option Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of different metal options are determined from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure level of copper is 82,000 and the support level is 78,000 [5]. 3.4 Option Factor - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility data of different metal options are provided, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its change. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of copper is 12.67%, and the weighted implied volatility is 17.79% with a change of 2.24% [6]. 3.5 Strategy and Suggestions - **Non - ferrous Metals** - **Copper Options**: Based on the analysis of copper fundamentals, market conditions, option factors, directional strategies (constructing a bull - spread combination of call options), volatility strategies (constructing a short - volatility seller option combination), and spot long - hedging strategies are proposed [8]. - **Aluminum/Alumina Options**: Analyze the fundamentals and market conditions of aluminum and alumina, and suggest directional strategies (bull - spread combination of call options), volatility strategies (constructing a short - position call + put option combination), and spot long - hedging strategies [9]. - **Zinc/Lead Options**: Provide strategies for zinc and lead options, including volatility strategies (constructing a short - neutral call + put option combination) and spot long - hedging strategies [9]. - **Nickel Options**: Suggest volatility strategies (constructing a short - bearish call + put option combination) and spot long - hedging strategies for nickel options [10]. - **Tin Options**: Propose volatility strategies (short - volatility strategy) and spot long - hedging strategies for tin options [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate Options**: Suggest volatility strategies (constructing a short - neutral call + put option combination) and spot long - covered call strategies for lithium carbonate options [11]. - **Precious Metals** - **Gold/Silver Options**: Analyze the fundamentals and market conditions of gold and silver, and suggest volatility strategies (constructing a long - biased short - volatility option seller combination) and spot long - hedging strategies [12]. - **Black Metals** - **Rebar Options**: Provide volatility strategies (constructing a short - neutral call + put option combination) and spot long - covered call strategies for rebar options [13]. - **Iron Ore Options**: Suggest volatility strategies (constructing a short - bullish call + put option combination) and spot long - hedging strategies for iron ore options [13]. - **Ferroalloy Options**: Propose volatility strategies (short - volatility strategy) for ferroalloy options [14]. - **Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Options**: Provide volatility strategies (constructing a short - neutral call + put option combination) and spot long - covered call strategies for industrial silicon and polysilicon options [14]. - **Glass Options**: Suggest volatility strategies (constructing a short - volatility call + put option combination) and spot long - hedging strategies for glass options [15].
金属期权策略早报-20250709
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-07-09 10:51
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For non - ferrous metals showing a volatile decline, construct a seller's neutral volatility strategy [2]. - For the black - series with a gradual range - bound consolidation, it is suitable to construct a seller's option neutral combination strategy [2]. - For precious metals like gold with a high - level consolidation and a weak decline, construct a spot hedging strategy [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes of various metal futures contracts are presented, including copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. For example, the latest price of copper (CU2508) is 80,030, with a price increase of 550 and a trading volume of 6.13 million lots [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR of various metal options are provided, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market respectively. For instance, the open interest PCR of copper options is 0.67, with a change of - 0.01 [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of various metal options are analyzed from the perspective of the maximum open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure point of copper options is 82,000 and the support point is 78,000 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of various metal options is presented, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of copper options is 11.20% [6]. 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations for Different Metal Categories 3.5.1 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper Options**: The copper market shows a high - level range - bound shock and then an upward breakthrough followed by a continuous decline. Construct a bullish option bull - spread strategy, a short - volatility option combination strategy, and a spot long - hedging strategy [8]. - **Aluminum/Alumina Options**: The aluminum market shows a bullish rise, high - level shock, and then a decline. Construct a bullish option bull - spread strategy, a short - option combination strategy, and a spot collar strategy [9]. - **Zinc/Lead Options**: The zinc market shows a bullish upward and high - level range - bound shock. Construct a short - option combination strategy and a spot collar strategy [9]. - **Nickel Options**: The nickel market shows a weak rebound. Construct a short - option combination strategy with a short bias and a spot long - hedging strategy [10]. - **Tin Options**: The tin market shows a short - term weak shock. Construct a short - volatility strategy and a spot collar strategy [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate Options**: The lithium carbonate market shows an oversold rebound. Construct a short - option combination strategy with a neutral bias and a spot covered - call strategy [11]. 3.5.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver Options**: The gold market shows a short - term weak shock. Construct a short - volatility option seller's combination strategy with a bullish bias and a spot hedging strategy [12]. 3.5.3 Black - Series - **Rebar Options**: The rebar market shows an oversold rebound with strong upward momentum. Construct a short - option combination strategy and a spot covered - call strategy [13]. - **Iron Ore Options**: The iron ore market shows a bullish upward trend. Construct a short - option combination strategy with a bullish bias and a spot collar strategy [13]. - **Ferroalloy Options**: The manganese silicon market shows a weak rebound. Construct a short - volatility strategy [14]. - **Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Options**: The industrial silicon market shows a rebound and then a range - bound shock. Construct a short - option combination strategy and a spot covered - call strategy [14]. - **Glass Options**: The glass market shows a rebound from a weak bearish trend. Construct a short - volatility option combination strategy and a spot collar strategy [15].
现货黄金抵达期权押注较重要位3284,容易引发资金重点关注,可留意此处的争夺情况。结合实盘多空订单比来看,50.4%订单做空,49.6%做多为主,暗示资金情绪也有所分化。而小时级别指标共振点,现价也逐渐靠近最强支撑位3277.74-3281.33,具体见“VIP专区-盯盘神器”。
news flash· 2025-07-09 08:48
Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the current price of spot gold has reached a significant options betting level at 3284, which is likely to attract focused attention from funds [1] - The analysis of real-time long and short order ratios shows a slight majority of 50.4% of orders are short, while 49.6% are long, suggesting a divergence in market sentiment [1] - The hourly indicators are approaching a strong support level between 3277.74 and 3281.33, indicating potential price action in this range [1]
农产品期权策略早报-20250704
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-07-04 12:45
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural products options market shows mixed trends. Oilseeds and oils have weakened, while grains like corn and starch are gradually warming up after a narrow - range consolidation. Soft commodities such as sugar continue to be weak, and cotton is rising moderately. Strategies suggest building option combination strategies with a focus on sellers, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Different agricultural product futures have various price changes. For example, soybean meal (M2509) rose 0.37% to 2,971, while soybean oil (Y2509) fell 0.50% to 7,980. Volume and open - interest also vary among different products [3] 3.2 Option Factors - Quantity and Position PCR - The PCR indicators of different agricultural product options show different trends. For instance, the volume PCR of soybean (A2509) is 0.27 with a change of 0.01, and the position PCR is 0.48 with a change of 0.01 [4] 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - Each agricultural product option has its own pressure and support levels. For example, the pressure level of soybean (A2509) is 4,500, and the support level is 4,100 [5] 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - Implied volatility varies among different agricultural product options. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean is 9.915%, and the weighted implied volatility is 12.20% with a change of 0.05 [6] 3.5 Strategies and Recommendations 3.5.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Soybean (A2509)**: Fundamental data shows significant soybean purchases in different months. The market has a weak - shock trend. Option strategies include selling a neutral call + put option combination and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7] - **Soybean Meal (M2509)**: The cost of far - month soybean meal is in the range of 2,850 - 3,020 yuan/ton. The market has a weak - shock pattern. Strategies involve selling a neutral call + put option combination and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9] - **Palm Oil (P2509)**: High - frequency data shows production and export changes. The market has a long - term high - drop trend. Strategies include selling a neutral call + put option combination and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] - **Peanut (PK2510)**: The spot market has a weak supply - demand pattern. The market has a weak - shock and warming - up trend. Strategies include a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] 3.5.2 Agricultural By - product Options - **Pig (LH2509)**: The pig price has been rising recently. The market has a warming - up and then blocked - drop trend. Strategies include selling a neutral call + put option combination and a covered call strategy for spot [11] - **Egg (JD2509)**: The egg inventory is expected to increase in the future. The market has a weak - shock and downward trend. Strategies include selling a bearish call + put option combination [12] - **Apple (AP2510)**: The apple cold - storage inventory is decreasing, and the market has a weak - bearish and upward - recovery trend. Strategies include selling a neutral call + put option combination [12] - **Jujube (CJ2509)**: The jujube inventory has a slight decrease. The market has a rebound - warming - up and upward trend. Strategies include selling a bullish wide - straddle option combination and a covered call strategy for spot [13] 3.5.3 Soft Commodity Options - **Sugar (SR2509)**: Brazilian sugar - shipping data shows changes. The market has an oversold - rebound and upward trend. Strategies include selling a neutral call + put option combination and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13] - **Cotton (CF2509)**: Spinning and weaving factory operating rates and cotton inventory data are provided. The market has a low - level rebound and upward trend. Strategies include a bullish call spread combination, selling a neutral call + put option combination, and a covered call strategy for spot [14] 3.5.4 Grain Options - **Corn (C2509)**: The corn oil market price is stable, and the corn germ market has a high - price drop. The market has a narrow - range consolidation trend. Strategies include selling a neutral call + put option combination [14]
现货黄金持续攀升,短线已企稳于3350上方。盯盘神器显示,黄金市场情绪偏多,实盘多空订单比出现失衡,做多比例更高。支撑位:15分钟的实盘订单流数据显示,3353的位置存在大量买盘,有望构成短线关键支撑位。在其下方,则指标共振点显示的较强支撑位3346.61。阻力位:指标共振点(15分钟)显示,上方最强阻力位在3361.58,若未能上破此处,短线或存在回调可能。此处空头挂单也较为丰富,或限制金价进一步上行。具体见“VIP专区-盯盘神器”。
news flash· 2025-07-01 13:08
Core Viewpoint - The current sentiment in the gold market is bullish, with a significant imbalance in long and short orders, favoring long positions. The price of spot gold has stabilized above 3350, indicating potential upward movement, but resistance levels may limit further gains [1]. Support and Resistance Levels - Support Level: The 15-minute order flow indicates a strong buying presence at the price level of 3353, which is expected to act as a key short-term support level. Below this, a strong support level is identified at 3346.61 based on indicator convergence [1]. - Resistance Level: The strongest resistance level is noted at 3361.58, where a failure to break above this level may lead to a potential pullback. There is a significant amount of short orders at this level, which could restrict further upward movement in gold prices [1].
农产品期权策略早报-20250630
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-06-30 08:36
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product sector shows different trends: oilseeds and oils are weakening, fats and oils, and agricultural by - products are in a volatile market, soft commodity sugar continues to be weak, cotton is rising moderately, and grains such as corn and starch are gradually warming up and then trading in a narrow range. It is recommended to construct option portfolio strategies mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Various agricultural product futures have different price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes. For example, the latest price of soybean No.1 (A2509) is 4,148, up 4 with a 0.10% increase, trading volume is 8.67 million lots (down 4.46 million lots), and open interest is 19.92 million lots (down 0.13 million lots) [3] 3.2 Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR - Different option varieties have different volume and open interest PCR values and their changes, which are used to describe the strength of option underlying market trends and whether there is a turning point. For example, the volume PCR of soybean No.1 is 0.61 (down 0.10), and the open interest PCR is 0.55 (down 0.03) [4] 3.3 Option Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - From the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options, the pressure and support levels of option underlyings are determined. For example, the pressure level of soybean No.1 is 4,500 and the support level is 4,100 [5] 3.4 Option Factor - Implied Volatility - Different option varieties have different implied volatility indicators, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and their changes, as well as the difference between implied and historical volatilities. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean No.1 is 9.625%, the weighted implied volatility is 11.36% (down 0.26%), and the difference between implied and historical volatilities is - 1.99 [6] 3.5 Option Strategies and Recommendations 3.5.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Soybean No.1 and No.2**: The fundamentals show the situation of soybean purchases and the physical inventory days of feed enterprises. The market trend of soybean No.1 is a high - level decline after a rebound. It is recommended to construct a short neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7] - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: The cost of soybean meal is in a certain range, and the market is affected by factors such as oil mill crushing volume and downstream buying interest. It is recommended to construct a short neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9] - **Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: The fundamentals are affected by factors such as palm oil production and export data, and Canadian rapeseed inventory. It is recommended to construct a short neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] - **Peanuts**: The spot market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to construct a bear spread strategy of put options and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] 3.5.2 Agricultural By - products Options - **Pigs**: The pig price has been rising last week, and the market is affected by factors such as slaughter volume and weight. It is recommended to construct a short neutral call + put option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot [11] - **Eggs**: The egg inventory is expected to increase in the future, and the market is in a weak downward trend. It is recommended to construct a short bearish call + put option combination strategy [12] - **Apples**: The apple inventory is decreasing, and the market is in a weak rebound. It is recommended to construct a short bearish call + put option combination strategy [12] - **Jujubes**: The jujube inventory is slightly decreasing, and the market is in a rebound. It is recommended to construct a short bullish strangle option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [13] 3.5.3 Soft Commodity Options - **Sugar**: The Brazilian sugar shipping situation and production forecast affect the market. The sugar market is in a weak rebound. It is recommended to construct a short neutral call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13] - **Cotton**: The cotton spinning and weaving factory operating rates and inventory affect the market. The cotton market is in a mild upward trend. It is recommended to construct a bull spread strategy of call options, a short neutral call + put option combination strategy, and a covered call strategy for spot [14] 3.5.4 Grains Options - **Corn and Starch**: The corn oil market price is stable, and the corn market is in a volatile upward and then downward trend. It is recommended to construct a short neutral call + put option combination strategy [14]
高晓峰:6.27绝地反击机会,技术反弹可期
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-27 11:20
Group 1 - The core PCE inflation data in the U.S. is expected to influence gold prices, with a previous value of 2.5% and a forecast of 2.6%. If the data meets or exceeds expectations, it will reinforce the Federal Reserve's stance on maintaining high interest rates, which could suppress gold buying [1] - A surprising drop in the PCE inflation data (e.g., 2.5% or lower) may trigger a short-term rebound in gold prices, but caution is advised due to the potential for limited gains from long-term rate hike expectations [1] - The U.S. GDP was unexpectedly revised down to 1.8%, providing temporary support for gold prices, but the slight increase in the PCE price index to 3.5% indicates persistent inflation, which counteracts the positive impact and increases market volatility [1] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that the current price level of 3283 offers a favorable risk-reward ratio, with hourly charts showing severe overselling. The resistance level of 3300-3310 has turned into support after being breached, suggesting a potential short-term rebound of 20 points [3] - If the PCE data aligns positively, gold prices may quickly recover the 3300 mark and test the previous high of 3336. However, a negative surprise in the data could lead to a brief decline, with 3260 serving as a critical support level [3] - A trading strategy is suggested to buy on a pullback in the 3280-3275 range, with a stop loss at 3267 and a target of 3312, indicating a proactive approach to capitalize on potential market movements [4]
现货黄金盘中持续承压,目前短线再次刷新日低,一度回落至3280美元之下。盯盘神器显示黄金日内波动已达到过去两周平均水平,需要警惕一定的超跌风险。不过1H指标共振点显示,最强阻力位已下移至3306.91-3310.52,此处无法收复或仍有下行风险,下方焦点依然是最强支撑位的3267.23。具体见“VIP专区-盯盘神器”。
news flash· 2025-06-27 11:05
Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that spot gold is under pressure, having dropped below $3280, and there is a need to be cautious of potential overselling risks [1] - The average daily volatility of gold has reached the level seen over the past two weeks, suggesting increased market activity [1] - The strongest resistance level has shifted down to the range of $3306.91 to $3310.52, and if this level cannot be reclaimed, there remains a risk of further declines [1] Group 2 - The key support level to watch is at $3267.23, which is critical for determining the next price movements [1]