金属期权 2026-01-07 金属期权策略早报 | 李立勤 | 高级投研经 理 | 从业资格号：F3074095 | 交易咨询号：Z0017896 | 邮箱：lilq@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 金属期权策略早报概要：（1）有色金属偏多上行，构建卖方中性波动率策略策略；（2）黑色系维持大幅度波动的 行情走势，适合构建做空波动率组合策略；（3）贵金属反弹回暖上升，构建牛市价差组合策略。 | 表1：标的期货市场概况 | | --- | | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | ...

能源化工期权 2026-01-06 能源化工期权策略早报 | 李立勤 | 高级投研经 | 从业资格号：F3074095 | 交易咨询号：Z0017896 | 邮箱：lilq@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 理 | | | | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 能源化工期权策略早报概要：能源类：原油、LPG；聚烯烃类期权：聚丙烯、聚氯乙烯、塑料、苯乙烯；聚酯类期 权：对二甲苯、PTA、短纤、瓶片；碱化工类：烧碱、纯碱；其他能源化工类：橡胶等。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For non - ferrous metals, a neutral volatility strategy for sellers can be constructed as they are trending upwards; for black metals, a short - volatility combination strategy is suitable due to their large - amplitude fluctuations; for precious metals, a bull - spread combination strategy can be built as they are rebounding and rising [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Copper (CU2602) closed at 101,380, up 3,270 (3.33%), with a trading volume of 28.70 million lots and an open interest of 25.21 million lots [3] - Aluminum (AL2602) closed at 22,520, up 135 (0.60%), with a trading volume of 35.36 million lots and an open interest of 29.96 million lots [3] - Zinc (ZN2602) closed at 23,215, up 85 (0.37%), with a trading volume of 14.57 million lots and an open interest of 9.74 million lots [3] - And so on for other metals including lead, nickel, tin, etc. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - For copper, the volume PCR is 0.45 (down 0.13), and the open interest PCR is 0.74 (up 0.08) [4] - For aluminum, the volume PCR is 0.25 (down 0.29), and the open interest PCR is 0.52 (down 0.04) [4] - Similar data are provided for other metals 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - For copper, the pressure level is 98,000 and the support level is 90,000 [5] - For aluminum, the pressure level is 23,000 and the support level is 21,400 [5] - Other metals also have their corresponding pressure and support levels 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - For copper, the at - the - money implied volatility is 30.23%, the weighted implied volatility is 32.68% (up 5.44%) [6] - For aluminum, the at - the - money implied volatility is 18.46%, the weighted implied volatility is 22.02% (up 3.56%) [6] - Implied volatility data are available for all metals 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations 3.5.1 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Build a bull - spread combination strategy for call options and a short - volatility seller option combination strategy; for spot hedging, hold a long spot position + buy put options + sell out - of - the - money call options [7] - **Aluminum**: Construct a bull - spread combination strategy for call options, a short - call + put option combination strategy; for spot hedging, use a collar strategy [9] - Similar strategies are provided for zinc, nickel, tin, and lithium carbonate 3.5.2 Precious Metals - **Silver**: Build a bull - spread combination strategy for call options, a short - volatility option seller combination strategy; for spot hedging, hold a long spot position + buy put options + sell out - of - the - money call options [12] 3.5.3 Black Metals - **Rebar**: Build a short - call + put option combination strategy for a short - bias; for spot hedging, hold a long spot position + sell call options [13] - **Iron ore**: Build a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy; for spot hedging, use a collar strategy [13] - Similar strategies are provided for ferroalloys, industrial silicon, and glass

Report Date - The report is dated December 26, 2025 [1] Core Viewpoints - For non - ferrous metals showing a bullish upward trend, construct a seller neutral volatility strategy [2] - For the black metals maintaining a large - amplitude volatile market, construct a short - volatility portfolio strategy [2] - For precious metals rebounding and rising, construct a bull spread portfolio strategy [2] Summary of Each Section 1. Futures Market Overview - The table presents the latest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open - interest changes of various metal futures contracts [3] 2. Option Factors - Volume and Open - Interest PCR - The volume PCR and open - interest PCR of different metal options are provided, along with their changes, which can be used to analyze the strength of the option underlying market and potential turning points [4] 3. Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure points, pressure - point offsets, support points, support - point offsets, maximum call option holdings, and maximum put option holdings of different metal options are given, helping to identify potential price barriers and supports [5] 4. Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, weighted implied - volatility changes, annual average implied volatility, call implied volatility, put implied volatility, historical 20 - day volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility of various metal options are presented [6] 5. Option Strategies and Recommendations Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Construct a bull spread strategy for call options, a short - volatility seller option portfolio strategy, and a spot long - hedging strategy [7] - **Aluminum**: Construct a short - volatility strategy by selling call and put options and a spot collar strategy [9] - **Zinc**: Construct a short - volatility strategy by selling call and put options and a spot collar strategy [9] - **Nickel**: Construct a bull spread strategy for call options, a short - volatility strategy by selling call and put options, and a spot covered - call strategy [10] - **Tin**: Construct a bull spread strategy for call options, a short - volatility strategy, and a spot collar strategy [10] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Construct a bull spread strategy for call options, a short - volatility strategy by selling call and put options, and a spot long - hedging strategy [11] Precious Metals - **Silver**: Construct a bull spread strategy for call options, a short - volatility option seller portfolio strategy, and a spot hedging strategy [12] Black Metals - **Rebar**: Construct a short - volatility strategy by selling call and put options and a spot covered - call strategy [13] - **Iron Ore**: Construct a short - volatility strategy by selling call and put options and a spot long - collar strategy [13] - **Ferroalloys (Manganese Silicon and Silicon Iron)**: For manganese silicon, construct a short - volatility strategy; for silicon iron, construct a short - volatility strategy and a spot hedging - related strategy [13][14] - **Industrial Silicon**: Construct a bear spread strategy for put options, a short - volatility strategy by selling call and put options, and a spot hedging strategy [14] - **Glass**: Construct a bear spread strategy for put options, a short - volatility strategy by selling call and put options, and a spot long - collar strategy [15]

这就意味着，未来还是温和爬升，控制速度。那么既然是选择温和状态，未来就应该是到一个关口，就 停一停，不大可能是连续进攻。 第二，基于以上节奏，那么中证1000即将面临7450的套牢盘，同时深指也是面临13400附近的套牢盘， 大概率也不会一次性过去。所以接下来两天，应该是先温和冲高，摸到下一个压力位，然后再来一个中 阴倒车的概率大，时间上最多冲刺一两个小时，也就会达到一个短期小高点。所以未来两天，应该是先 出后进的差价机会。 最后总结一下，今天的行情可以概括为两句话。第一是方向选择是对的，节奏良性。第二，力度和速度 差了一些，但这也不完全是坏事，因为很多事情，开始阶段都是速度比较慢，并且会主动控速，一旦进 入完全冲刺，也就离结束不远了。 指数向上突破，但未来两天，方向千万别做反了。一个大的基调，我们一定要看懂。 明日计划还是老规矩，放在最后30秒。 首先，从中期节奏来看，有两个细节是最重要的，一个是方向，一个是力度。从方向选择来看，今天的 任务是相同挑战压力位。最终结果来看，深指终于突破了下降通道线，同时中证2000距离前高也是一步 之遥。 但是从力度来看，指数上去，但也只是60%的个股上涨。并且中证1000 ...

前一交易日收评：5月线和5周线间的振荡有望尝试破局。午评：多头在努力，出现了已见底的弱信号，但3900上方的抛压很明显 明天强弱分水岭：3922；压力位：3914，3931，3936；支撑位：3890，3870，3864 大盘收出高开带缺口的带量小中阳，中期已走软，短线多头优势明显。创指收出高开的带量大中阳，中期已走软，短线多头优势明显。 前一交易日收盘点评"今天总体偏弱，月k收阴，周k如期收阳，收上了3883说明多头没放弃，收盘位置为短期多头掌控局面。5月线和5周线间 的振荡有望尝试破局。在3845-3834之上运行才好，不再创新低了才行，突破3897才有止跌可能，3912-3922是看得见的阻力"。今天高开留下 缺口，多头在努力，成交量也有所放大，但反弹力度还不够，收在3900之上是好现象，也是已见底的弱信号，收盘是短期多头掌控局面。周三 五是本周的另外两个关键时点。继续看5月线和5周线间的振荡格局能否打破吧。若量能跟不上还得防有所反复。运行在3900之上才行，已不宜 再跌破3880一线，3922-3936是阻力。操作上，不失3820-3800一带可先搏短；无力突破3912-3922一带应先减仓。 创指强 ...

11月13日，和讯投顾李景峰称，今天市场大涨，散户该加仓还是减仓？我的观点是不加也不减。看过我 昨天视频的应该知道，我曾说市场回调时散户应贪婪。那为何今天就不该贪婪了呢？注意当前位置，前 期我给出过压力位3222点，这是个密集成交区。上周三抄底后，到这个位置我进行了减仓操作，因为到 了压力位，我可以不追涨。回调形成ABC形态时，我说过回调后散户应贪婪些，当时原油预期降低。 如今反弹再次受阻，会面临之前套牢盘的抛售压力，这会增加短时间股票供给。若再回调，我觉得可考 虑加仓。散户常犯的错误是涨时追、跌时慌，要认清这个本质。昨天领跌的是BC电池，我曾说过其回 调不会一蹴而就，会有反复，可能有ABC节奏。如今锂电池因VC涨价上涨，向上力量强势，若BC电池 再回落，向下力量可能彻底结束，届时向上力量会再次形成。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For non - ferrous metals, construct a seller neutral volatility strategy as they are in a range - bound oscillation; for black metals, build a short - volatility portfolio strategy due to their large - amplitude fluctuations; for precious metals, create a spot hedging strategy following their significant decline from high levels [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The latest prices of various metal futures showed different trends, with most experiencing price drops. For example, copper (CU2512) dropped by 0.86% to 85,690, and aluminum (AL2512) decreased by 0.35% to 21,405. Trading volumes and open interests also varied among different metals [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - PCR indicators describe the strength of option underlying market trends and potential turning points. For instance, the copper option's volume PCR was 0.61, and the open interest PCR was 0.78 [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - From the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest in call and put options, the pressure and support levels of each metal option were identified. For example, the pressure level of copper was 90,000, and the support level was 84,000 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of each metal option showed different levels and trends. For example, the implied volatility of copper was 15.56% at the at - the - money strike, and the weighted implied volatility was 19.01%, showing a decrease of 1.39% [6]. 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations for Different Metals 3.5.1 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The fundamentals showed inventory changes in major exchanges. The market was in a high - level consolidation with support. Option strategies included a short - volatility seller option portfolio strategy and a spot long - hedging strategy [7]. - **Aluminum**: Inventory data indicated a complex situation. The market showed a long - biased upward high - level oscillation. Strategies included a bullish call option spread strategy, a short - volatility strategy, and a spot collar strategy [9]. - **Zinc**: The fundamentals involved TC prices and inventory data. The market was in a fluctuating recovery with pressure. Strategies included a short - volatility strategy and a spot collar strategy [9]. - **Nickel**: Global inventory increased. The market was in a wide - range oscillation with short - side pressure. Strategies included a short - volatility strategy and a spot covered - call strategy [10]. - **Tin**: The supply side faced challenges. The market showed a short - term high - level oscillation with support. Strategies included a short - volatility strategy and a spot collar strategy [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Inventory was being depleted. The market was in an oscillating recovery followed by a rapid decline. Strategies included a short - volatility strategy and a spot long - hedging strategy [11]. 3.5.2 Precious Metals - **Gold**: The Fed's policy influenced the market. The market showed a long - term upward trend with high - level consolidation. Strategies included a short - volatility neutral option seller portfolio strategy and a spot hedging strategy [12]. 3.5.3 Black Metals - **Rebar**: Inventory decreased. The market was in a weak short - side trend with pressure. Strategies included a short - volatility strategy and a spot long - covered - call strategy [14]. - **Iron Ore**: Port inventory increased. The market was in a weak oscillating downward trend with support and pressure. Strategies included a short - volatility strategy and a spot long - collar strategy [14]. - **Ferroalloy (Manganese Silicon)**: Production was stable with high inventory. The market was in a weak short - side trend. Strategies included a short - volatility strategy [15]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Inventory remained high. The market was in a large - range oscillating weak trend. Strategies included a short - volatility strategy and a spot hedging strategy [15]. - **Glass**: Production was stable, and inventory decreased. The market was in a weak trend with pressure. Strategies included a short - volatility strategy and a spot long - collar strategy [16].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The metal sector is divided into non - ferrous metals, precious metals, and black metals. For non - ferrous metals, a neutral volatility seller strategy can be constructed as they are in a range - bound state; for black metals with large - amplitude fluctuations, a short - volatility portfolio strategy is suitable; for precious metals with an upward - breaking trend, a spot hedging strategy is recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Copper (CU2511) closed at 86,520, up 1,710 (2.02%), with a trading volume of 29.14 million lots and an open interest of 20.18 million lots [3]. - Aluminum (AL2511) closed at 20,975, up 115 (0.55%), with a trading volume of 19.17 million lots and an open interest of 17.09 million lots [3]. - Other metals such as zinc, lead, nickel, etc., also have detailed price, trading volume, and open - interest data presented [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - For copper options, the volume PCR is 0.74 (up 0.40), and the open - interest PCR is 0.71 (down 0.03) [4]. - Aluminum options have a volume PCR of 1.03 (up 0.63) and an open - interest PCR of 0.84 (up 0.11) [4]. - Different metals' option volume and open - interest PCR data reflect market sentiment and potential trend reversals [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - Copper's pressure point is 92,000 and support point is 80,000 [5]. - Aluminum's pressure point is 21,400 and support point is 20,400 [5]. - These levels are derived from the strike prices of the maximum open - interest call and put options [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - Copper's at - the - money implied volatility is 22.38%, and the weighted implied volatility is 24.94% (down 0.46%) [6]. - Aluminum's at - the - money implied volatility is 9.91%, and the weighted implied volatility is 12.62% (up 0.09%) [6]. - The implied volatility data helps in formulating volatility - based option strategies [6]. 3.5 Option Strategies and Recommendations 3.5.1 Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper Options**: Construct a short - volatility seller option portfolio strategy and a spot hedging strategy [7]. - **Aluminum/Alumina Options**: Build a neutral short - call and short - put option combination strategy and a spot collar strategy [9]. - **Zinc/Lead Options**: Adopt a neutral short - call and short - put option combination strategy and a spot collar strategy [9]. - **Nickel Options**: Implement a short - bearish call and put option combination strategy and a spot covered - call strategy [10]. - **Tin Options**: Use a short - volatility strategy and a spot collar strategy [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate Options**: Apply a short - bearish call and put option combination strategy and a spot long - put and short - call strategy [11]. 3.5.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver Options**: Build a bullish call spread strategy, a long - biased short - volatility option seller portfolio strategy, and a spot hedging strategy [12]. 3.5.3 Black Metals - **Rebar Options**: Use a short - bearish call and put option combination strategy and a spot covered - call strategy [13]. - **Iron Ore Options**: Adopt a neutral short - call and short - put option combination strategy and a spot collar strategy [13]. - **Ferroalloy Options**: Implement a short - volatility strategy for manganese - silicon options [14]. - **Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Options**: Build a short - volatility short - call and short - put option combination strategy and a spot long - put and short - call strategy [14]. - **Glass Options**: Use a short - volatility short - call and short - put option combination strategy and a spot collar strategy [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For non - ferrous metals, build a seller's neutral volatility strategy as they are in a range - bound oscillation [2]. - For black metals, construct a short - volatility portfolio strategy due to their large - amplitude fluctuations [2]. - For precious metals, build a spot hedging strategy as they break upward [2]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The latest prices of various metal futures have different changes. For example, copper (CU2511) dropped 4.46% to 83,030, while gold (AU2512) rose 0.42% to 913.26. The trading volumes and open interests also vary among different metals [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR of different metal options have different trends. For instance, the volume PCR of copper decreased by 0.14 to 0.33, and the open interest PCR decreased by 0.02 to 0.74 [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - From the perspective of option factors, different metal options have their own pressure and support levels. For example, the pressure level of copper is 92,000 and the support level is 80,000 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of different metal options shows different characteristics. For example, the weighted implied volatility of copper increased by 1.37 to 25.40%, while that of aluminum decreased by 0.35 to 12.53% [6]. 3.5 Strategies and Recommendations 3.5.1 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Build a short - volatility seller's option portfolio strategy and a spot hedging strategy. The pressure level is 92,000 and the support level is 80,000 [7]. - **Aluminum/Alumina**: Construct a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy and a spot collar strategy. The pressure level of aluminum is 21,400 and the support level is 20,000; for alumina, the pressure level is 3,000 and the support level is 2,800 [9]. - **Zinc/Lead**: Build a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy and a spot collar strategy. The pressure level of zinc is 22,000 and the support level is 21,800 [9]. - **Nickel**: Construct a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy and a spot covered - call strategy. The pressure level is 130,000 and the support level is 120,000 [10]. - **Tin**: Build a short - volatility strategy and a spot collar strategy. The pressure level is 320,000 and the support level is 270,000 [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Construct a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy and a spot long - hedging strategy. The pressure level is 99,000 and the support level is 65,000 [11]. 3.5.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: For gold, construct a bull - spread call option strategy, a short - volatility option seller's combination strategy, and a spot hedging strategy. The pressure level is 888 and the support level is 800 [12]. 3.5.3 Black Metals - **Rebar**: Build a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy and a spot covered - call strategy. The pressure level is 3,500 and the support level is 3,000 [13]. - **Iron Ore**: Construct a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy and a spot long - collar strategy. The pressure level is 850 and the support level is 750 [13]. - **Ferroalloys**: For manganese silicon, build a short - volatility strategy. The pressure level is 6,000 and the support level is 5,800 [14]. - **Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon**: Construct a short - volatility call + put option combination strategy and a spot hedging strategy. The pressure level of industrial silicon is 14,200 and the support level is 8,000 [14]. - **Glass**: Build a short - volatility call + put option combination strategy and a spot long - collar strategy. The pressure level is 1,200 and the support level is 1,000 [15].