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农产品期权策略早报:农产品期权-20251010
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-10-10 03:25
表1:标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | (%) | (万手) | | (万手) | | | 豆一 | A2511 | 3,960 | 0 | 0.00 | 10.55 | 1.73 | 13.76 | 0.10 | | 豆二 | B2511 | 3,637 | 4 | 0.11 | 10.21 | 2.57 | 8.70 | -0.15 | | 豆粕 | M2511 | 2,903 | -6 | -0.21 | 9.03 | 2.94 | 35.21 | -4.75 | | 菜籽粕 | RM2601 | 2,418 | -11 | -0.45 | 20.63 | -1.13 | 35.62 | 0.33 | | 棕榈油 | P2511 | 9,436 | 20 | 0.21 | 0.80 | 0.27 | 1.35 | -0.21 | | 豆油 | Y2511 | 8,370 | 8 ...
农产品期权策略早报:农产品期权-20250923
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-09-23 01:36
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product options market shows different trends. Oilseed and oil - related agricultural products are in a weak and volatile state, while some agricultural by - products and soft commodities maintain a volatile or weak - consolidation trend. It is recommended to construct option combination strategies mainly based on sellers and spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2] - Each option variety has its own fundamental situation, market trend, option factor characteristics, and corresponding option strategies [7][9][10] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Different agricultural product futures show various price changes, volume changes, and open interest changes. For example, the price of soybean No.1 (A2511) is 3,884, down 27 with a decline rate of 0.69%, and the trading volume is 8.64 million lots with a decrease of 1.83 million lots [3] 3.2 Option Factors 3.2.1 Volume - to - Open - Interest PCR - Different option varieties have different volume - to - open - interest PCR values and their changes, which can be used to analyze the market sentiment and potential turning points of the underlying assets. For example, the volume PCR of soybean No.1 is 0.53 with a change of 0.14, and the open - interest PCR is 0.43 with a change of - 0.01 [4] 3.2.2 Pressure and Support Levels - From the perspective of option factors, each option variety has corresponding pressure and support levels. For example, the pressure level of soybean No.1 is 4000 and the support level is 3900 [5] 3.2.3 Implied Volatility - Different option varieties have different implied volatility values, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and their changes. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean No.1 is 10.84%, and the weighted implied volatility is 12.74% with a decrease of 0.26% [6] 3.3 Strategies and Recommendations for Different Option Types 3.3.1 Oilseed and Oil Options - **Soybean No.1 and No.2**: Based on the fundamental situation of soybeans, the market trend, and option factors, it is recommended to construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility strategies and a long - collar strategy for spot long - hedging strategies [7] - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: For directional strategies, a bear - spread put option combination strategy can be constructed; for volatility strategies, a short - biased call + put option combination strategy can be used; and a long - collar strategy can be used for spot long - hedging [9] - **Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: Volatility strategies suggest constructing short - biased call + put option combination strategies, and spot long - hedging strategies recommend long - collar strategies [10] - **Peanut**: A bear - spread put option combination strategy can be used for directional strategies, and a long - collar strategy for spot long - hedging [11] 3.3.2 Agricultural By - product Options - **Pig**: Volatility strategies suggest constructing short - biased call + put option combination strategies, and a covered call strategy can be used for spot long - covered strategies [11] - **Egg**: A bear - spread put option combination strategy can be used for directional strategies, a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility strategies [12] - **Apple**: Volatility strategies suggest constructing long - biased call + put option combination strategies [12] - **Jujube**: Volatility strategies recommend constructing short - biased wide - straddle option combination strategies, and a covered call strategy for spot covered - hedging [13] 3.3.3 Soft Commodity Options - **Sugar**: Volatility strategies suggest constructing short - biased call + put option combination strategies, and a long - collar strategy for spot long - hedging [13] - **Cotton**: Volatility strategies recommend constructing long - biased call + put option combination strategies, and a long - collar strategy for spot long - covered strategies [14] 3.3.4 Grain Options - **Corn and Starch**: Volatility strategies suggest constructing short - biased call + put option combination strategies [14]
农产品期权策略早报-20250917
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-09-17 03:04
数据来源:WIND、五矿期货期权服务部 农产品期权研究 农产品期权 2025-09-17 农产品期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号:F3047321 | 交易咨询号:Z0015541 | 邮箱:lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号:F03138607 | 电话:0755-23375252 | 邮箱:huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号:F03090207 | 交易咨询号:Z0016947 | 邮箱:lirj@wkqh.cn | 农产品期权策略早报概要:油料油脂类农产品偏弱震荡,油脂类,农副产品维持震荡行情,软商品白糖小幅震荡, 棉花弱势盘整,谷物类玉米和淀粉弱势窄幅盘整。 策略上:构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1:标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | - ...
农产品期权策略早报-20250916
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-09-16 02:42
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Agricultural Product Options Strategy Morning Report [1][2] - Report Date: September 16, 2025 [1] - Core Viewpoint: Oilseed and oil agricultural products are weakly volatile, while oils, agricultural by - products maintain a volatile market. Soft commodity sugar shows a slight fluctuation, cotton is weakly consolidating, and grains such as corn and starch are weakly and narrowly consolidating. Construct option portfolio strategies mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2] Group 2: Target Futures Market Overview - Multiple agricultural product options are covered, including soybean, soybean meal, palm oil, etc. For each option, details such as the underlying contract, latest price, change, change rate, trading volume, volume change, open interest, and open interest change are provided [3] Group 3: Option Factor Analysis Volume and Open Interest PCR - Analyze the volume PCR and open interest PCR of various agricultural product options, including their values and changes, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and whether the underlying market has a turning point [4] Pressure and Support Levels - Determine the pressure and support levels of each option underlying from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options [5] Implied Volatility - Provide data on the at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, its change, annual average, call implied volatility, put implied volatility, HISV20, and the difference between implied and historical volatility for each option [6] Group 4: Strategy and Recommendations Oilseed and Oil Options - **Soybean (Bean 1 and Bean 2)**: The fundamentals of US soybeans are neutral to bearish. The implied volatility of soybean options remains at a relatively high level compared to historical averages, and the open interest PCR indicates a weak market. Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [7] - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: For soybean meal, the fundamentals show changes in daily提货 volume, basis, and inventory. The implied volatility of soybean meal options remains slightly above the historical average, and the open interest PCR is below 0.60. Directional strategy: Construct a bearish call option spread strategy; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [9] - **Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: The fundamentals of palm oil show changes in inventory. The implied volatility of palm oil options continues to decline to a level below the historical average, and the open interest PCR is above 1.00. Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - bullish call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [10] - **Peanut**: The fundamentals are affected by factors such as weather and market supply. The implied volatility of peanut options remains at a relatively low level, and the open interest PCR is below 0.60. Directional strategy: Construct a bearish call option spread strategy; Volatility strategy: None; Spot long - hedging strategy: Hold a long spot + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [11] Agricultural By - product Options - **Pig**: The supply pressure in September is large, and the market is in a weak state. The implied volatility of pig options continues to rise to a relatively high level compared to historical averages, and the open interest PCR is below 0.50. Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - covered strategy: Hold a long spot + sell an out - of - the - money call option [11] - **Egg**: The inventory of laying hens is expected to increase. The implied volatility of egg options remains at a high level, and the open interest PCR is below 0.60. Directional strategy: Construct a bearish call option spread strategy; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy; Spot hedging strategy: None [12] - **Apple**: The market is gradually warming up. The implied volatility of apple options remains slightly above the historical average, and the open interest PCR is below 0.60. Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - bullish call + put option combination strategy; Spot hedging strategy: None [12] - **Jujube**: The inventory shows a slight decline. The implied volatility of jujube options quickly rises to a level above the historical average, and the open interest PCR is below 0.50. Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - bearish wide - straddle option combination strategy; Spot covered hedging strategy: Hold a long spot + sell an out - of - the - money call option [13] Soft Commodity Options - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar low - inventory supports the price, but the sales data is lower than expected. The implied volatility of sugar options remains at a relatively low level, and the open interest PCR is around 0.60. Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [13] - **Cotton**: The开机 rate of spinning and weaving factories and the commercial inventory show certain changes. The implied volatility of cotton options continues to decline and is currently at a low level, and the open interest PCR is below 1.00. Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - bullish call + put option combination strategy; Spot covered strategy: Hold a long spot + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [14] Grain Options - **Corn and Starch**: The corn supply is affected by factors such as planting area and yield. The implied volatility of corn options remains at a relatively low level, and the open interest PCR is below 0.60. Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: None [14] Group 5: Option Charts - Multiple option charts are provided for various agricultural products, including price trend charts, option volume and open interest charts, open interest - PCR charts, implied volatility charts, etc., to visually present the market conditions of each option [16][33][51]
农产品期权策略早报-20250915
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 02:53
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall trend of agricultural product options is mixed, with oilseeds and oils showing a weak and volatile trend, while some products like apples show a warming - up trend [2] - It is recommended to construct option combination strategies mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered call strategies to enhance returns [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Overview of Underlying Futures - Different agricultural product options have different price changes, trading volumes, and open - interest changes. For example, the latest price of soybean No.1 (A2511) is 3,956, with no change and a trading volume of 11.44 million lots [3] 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open - Interest PCR - The volume and open - interest PCR of each option variety reflect different market trends. For example, the volume PCR of soybean No.1 is 0.54, with a change of - 0.02, and the open - interest PCR is 0.42, with a change of - 0.00 [4] 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - From the perspective of option factors, each option variety has corresponding pressure and support levels. For example, the pressure level of soybean No.1 is 4,100, and the support level is 3,900 [5] 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility of each option variety shows different characteristics. For example, the weighted implied volatility of soybean No.1 is 12.08, with a change of - 0.13 [6] 3.5 Strategies and Recommendations 3.5.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Soybean No.1 and No.2**: The fundamentals of US soybeans have a neutral - to - negative impact. For soybean No.1, it is recommended to construct a selling option combination strategy to obtain time value and use a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7] - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: For soybean meal, a bear spread strategy of put options can be constructed, and a selling option combination strategy with a short bias can be used. A long collar strategy is also recommended for spot hedging [9] - **Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: For palm oil, a selling option combination strategy with a long bias can be constructed, and a long collar strategy is used for spot hedging [10] - **Peanuts**: A bear spread strategy of put options can be constructed, and a long collar strategy is used for spot hedging [11] 3.5.2 Agricultural By - product Options - **Pigs**: A selling option combination strategy with a short bias can be constructed, and a covered call strategy is used for spot hedging [11] - **Eggs**: A bear spread strategy of put options can be constructed, and a selling option combination strategy with a short bias can be used [12] - **Apples**: A selling option combination strategy with a long bias can be constructed [12] - **Jujubes**: A short - biased wide - straddle option combination strategy can be constructed, and a covered call strategy is used for spot hedging [13] 3.5.3 Soft Commodity Options - **Sugar**: A selling option combination strategy with a short bias can be constructed, and a long collar strategy is used for spot hedging [13] - **Cotton**: A selling option combination strategy with a long bias can be constructed, and a covered call strategy is used for spot hedging [14] 3.5.4 Grain Options - **Corn and Starch**: A selling option combination strategy with a short bias can be constructed [14]
农产品期权策略早报-20250912
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-09-12 02:36
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product sector shows different trends: oilseeds and oils are weakly volatile, oils and agricultural by - products are in a volatile market, soft commodity sugar has a slight fluctuation, cotton is weakly consolidating, and grains such as corn and starch are in a weakly narrow - range consolidation. It is recommended to construct option portfolio strategies mainly as sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Multiple agricultural product futures are presented with details on latest price, change, change rate, trading volume, volume change, open interest, and open interest change. For example, the latest price of soybean (A2511) is 3,957 with a 0.79% increase, and its trading volume is 10.36 million lots with a decrease of 4.26 million lots [3] 3.2 Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR - Volume PCR and open interest PCR are calculated for various option varieties. For instance, the volume PCR of soybean (A2511) is 0.56 with a - 0.21 change, and the open interest PCR is 0.42 with a - 0.01 change. These factors are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market [4] 3.3 Option Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - Pressure and support levels are determined for each option variety based on the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure level of soybean (A2511) is 4,100 and the support level is 3,900 [5] 3.4 Option Factor - Implied Volatility - Implied volatility data including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its change, annual average, call and put implied volatility, historical volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility are provided for different option varieties. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of soybean (A2511) is 10.25%, and the weighted implied volatility is 12.21% with a - 0.42 change [6] 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations 3.5.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Soybean (A2511)**: Fundamental analysis shows that the US soybean good - rate is increasing, and Brazilian soybean import - related indicators have changed. The market has a short - term consolidation pattern. Option factors indicate high - level historical volatility, a weak - volatile market, and specific pressure and support levels. Strategies include a neutral call + put option selling combination for time - value gain, and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [7] - **Soybean Meal (M2511)**: With sufficient supply and increasing inventory, the market is under pressure. Option factors show above - average historical volatility, a weak - volatile market, and specific pressure and support levels. Strategies include a bear - spread strategy for directional gain, a short - biased call + put option selling combination, and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [9] - **Palm Oil (P2511)**: Malaysian palm oil production and inventory data show changes, and the market is in a high - level volatile pattern. Option factors show decreasing volatility, a bullish - biased market, and specific pressure and support levels. Strategies include a bull - biased call + put option selling combination for time - value gain, and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [10] - **Peanut (PK2511)**: In the traditional off - season, the market is in a weak - consolidation pattern. Option factors show low - level historical volatility, a weak - volatile market, and specific pressure and support levels. Strategies include a bear - spread strategy for directional gain, and a long - collar - like strategy for spot hedging [11] 3.5.2 Agricultural By - products Options - **Pig (LH2511)**: Piglet prices and profits are falling, and the supply is expected to increase. The market is in a weak - consolidation pattern. Option factors show increasing volatility, a weak market, and specific pressure and support levels. Strategies include a short - biased call + put option selling combination for time - value and directional gain, and a covered call strategy for spot [11] - **Egg (JD2510)**: High - supply and low - demand situation persists, and the market is in a weak - bearish pattern. Option factors show high - level volatility, a weak - volatile market, and specific pressure and support levels. Strategies include a bear - spread strategy for directional gain, a short - biased call + put option selling combination, and no spot - hedging strategy [12] - **Apple (AP2511)**: Inventory issues and new - fruit listing affect the market, which is in a warming - up pattern. Option factors show above - average historical volatility, a weak - volatile market, and specific pressure and support levels. Strategies include a bull - biased call + put option selling combination for time - value gain, and no spot - hedging strategy [12] - **Jujube (CJ2601)**: Inventory is slightly decreasing, and the market is in a short - term decline pattern. Option factors show increasing volatility, a weak market, and specific pressure and support levels. Strategies include a short - biased wide - straddle option selling combination for time - value gain, and a covered call strategy for spot [13] 3.5.3 Soft Commodity Options - **Sugar (SR2511)**: Brazilian sugar production data and global supply - demand forecasts change. The market is in a weak - bearish pattern. Option factors show low - level historical volatility, a range - bound market, and specific pressure and support levels. Strategies include a short - biased call + put option selling combination for time - value gain, and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [13] - **Cotton (CF2511)**: Brazilian cotton production is expected to increase, and the market is in a short - term weak pattern. Option factors show decreasing volatility, increasing bullish power, and specific pressure and support levels. Strategies include a bull - biased call + put option selling combination for time - value gain, and a covered call strategy for spot [14] 3.5.4 Grain Options - **Corn (C2511)**: With new - season corn approaching and sufficient supply, the market is in a weak - rebound pattern. Option factors show low - level historical volatility, a weak market, and specific pressure and support levels. Strategies include a short - biased call + put option selling combination for time - value gain, and no spot - hedging strategy [14]
农产品期权策略早报-20250911
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-09-11 02:39
Group 1: Report Summary - The report is an agricultural product options strategy morning report dated September 11, 2025, covering various agricultural product options [1][2] - The overall market shows that oilseed and oil - related agricultural products are weakly volatile, while other products like agricultural by - products, soft commodities, and grains have different degrees of volatile or weak trends [2] - The recommended strategy is to construct an option portfolio strategy mainly based on sellers, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2] Group 2: Market Overview of Underlying Futures - The report provides the latest prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various agricultural product option underlying futures, including soybeans, soybean meal, palm oil, etc. [3] Group 3: Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR - It presents the volume and open interest PCR data of different agricultural product options, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market respectively [4] Group 4: Option Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of various agricultural product option underlying assets are analyzed from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options [5] Group 5: Option Factor - Implied Volatility - The report shows the implied volatility data of different agricultural product options, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its changes, as well as the difference between implied and historical volatilities [6] Group 6: Strategy and Recommendations for Different Agricultural Product Options Oilseed and Oil Options - **Soybean Options**: Based on the USDA report and market data, the soybean market has a certain pattern. The implied volatility of soybean options is at a relatively high level, and the market is weakly volatile. Strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option combination for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7] - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Options**: Due to sufficient supply and limited downstream demand, the soybean meal market is under pressure. Option strategies include a bear spread strategy for direction, a short - biased call + put option combination for volatility, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8][9] - **Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil Options**: According to the MPOA data, the palm oil market has production, inventory, and export changes. Option strategies include a short - biased call + put option combination for volatility and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] - **Peanut Options**: In the off - season of consumption, the peanut market is weakly volatile. Strategies include a bear spread strategy for direction and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] Agricultural By - product Options - **Pig Options**: With changes in the piglet price and inventory, the pig market is weakly volatile. Strategies include a short - biased call + put option combination for volatility and a covered call strategy for spot [11] - **Egg Options**: Due to high supply and weak demand, the egg market is weak. Strategies include a bear spread strategy for direction, a short - biased call + put option combination for volatility [12] - **Apple Options**: Affected by inventory and new product listing, the apple market has a certain upward trend. Strategies include a short - biased call + put option combination for volatility [12] - **Jujube Options**: The jujube market has supply pressure and shows a short - term decline. Strategies include a short strangle option combination for volatility and a covered call strategy for spot [13] Soft Commodity Options - **Sugar Options**: With changes in Brazilian sugar production and global supply - demand forecasts, the sugar market is weakly bearish. Strategies include a short - biased call + put option combination for volatility and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13] - **Cotton Options**: Due to the increase in Brazilian cotton production forecast, the cotton market is short - term weak. Strategies include a short - biased call + put option combination for volatility and a covered call strategy for spot [14] Grain Options - **Corn and Starch Options**: With the approaching of the new corn season and sufficient inventory of grain - using enterprises, the corn market is weakly bearish. Strategies include a short - biased call + put option combination for volatility [14] Group 7: Option Charts - The report provides various charts of different agricultural product options, including price trends, volume and open interest trends, implied volatility trends, etc., to visually display the market conditions of different options [16][33][53]
农产品期权策略早报-20250905
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-09-05 01:37
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The overall trend of agricultural products shows that oilseeds and oils are weakly volatile, while agricultural by - products, soft commodities, and grains maintain a volatile or weakly volatile pattern. It is recommended to construct option portfolio strategies mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Futures Market Overview - **Prices and Changes**: Different agricultural product futures have different price changes. For example, the latest price of soybean No.1 (A2511) is 3,971, up 5 with a 0.13% increase; while the price of live hog (LH2511) is 13,365, down 185 with a 1.37% decrease [3]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: There are also differences in trading volume and open interest. For instance, the trading volume of soybean meal (M2511) is 7.72 million lots, with an increase of 2.12 million lots, and the open interest is 53.89 million lots, with an increase of 0.46 million lots [3]. 3.2 Option Factor Analysis - **Volume and Open Interest PCR**: These indicators reflect the sentiment and strength of the market. For example, the volume PCR of soybean No.1 is 0.51, with a change of 0.07, and the open - interest PCR is 0.42, with a change of - 0.01 [4]. - **Pressure and Support Levels**: Each option variety has corresponding pressure and support levels. For example, the pressure level of soybean No.1 is 4,500, and the support level is 3,900 [5]. - **Implied Volatility**: It shows the market's expectation of future price fluctuations. For example, the implied volatility of soybean No.1 is 10.69%, and the weighted implied volatility is 13.07%, with a change of 0.12 [6]. 3.3 Option Strategies and Recommendations - **Oilseeds and Oils Options** - **Soybean No.1 and No.2**: For soybean No.1, it is recommended to construct a neutral short call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7]. - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: For soybean meal, a bear spread strategy of put options can be constructed, along with a short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: For palm oil, a long - biased short call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging are recommended [10]. - **Peanuts**: A bear spread strategy of put options and a long collar strategy for spot hedging are suggested [11]. - **Agricultural By - products Options** - **Live Hogs**: A short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot are recommended [11]. - **Eggs**: A bear spread strategy of put options, a short - biased call + put option combination strategy are recommended, and no spot hedging strategy is provided [12]. - **Apples**: A long - biased short call + put option combination strategy is recommended, and no spot hedging strategy is provided [12]. - **Jujubes**: A short - neutral strangle option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot hedging are recommended [13]. - **Soft Commodities Options** - **Sugar**: A short - biased call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging are recommended [13]. - **Cotton**: A long - biased short call + put option combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot hedging are recommended [14]. - **Grains Options** - **Corn and Starch**: A short - biased call + put option combination strategy is recommended, and no spot hedging strategy is provided for corn [14].
农产品期权策略早报-20250902
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-09-02 01:08
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product sector includes beans, oils, agricultural by - products, soft commodities, grains, and others. Each sector selects some varieties for option strategy recommendations, and the strategy report for each option variety is compiled based on the analysis of the underlying market, option factor research, and option strategy suggestions [8]. - Oil - and - fat and oilseed agricultural products are in a weak and volatile state, oils are in a volatile market, agricultural by - products maintain a volatile trend, soft commodity sugar has a slight fluctuation, cotton is in a weak consolidation, and grains such as corn and starch are in a weak and narrow - range consolidation. It is recommended to construct an option portfolio strategy mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The latest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and position changes of multiple agricultural product option underlying contracts are presented, including soybeans (A2511, B2511), soybean meal (M2511), rapeseed meal (RM2511), palm oil (P2510), soybean oil (Y2511), rapeseed oil (OI2511), eggs (JD2510), live pigs (LH2511), peanuts (PK2510), apples (AP2601), jujubes (CJ2601), sugar (SR2511), cotton (CF2511), corn (C2511), starch (CS2511), and logs (LG2511) [3]. 3.2 Option Factor - Quantity and Position PCR - The trading volume, volume change, open interest, position change, trading volume PCR, volume PCR change, open interest PCR, and position PCR change of multiple agricultural product options are provided, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market [4]. 3.3 Option Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - The underlying contract, at - the - money strike price, pressure point, pressure point deviation, support point, support point deviation, maximum call option position, and maximum put option position of multiple agricultural product options are given, which show the pressure and support levels of the option underlying from the perspective of the strike price of the maximum call and put option positions [5]. 3.4 Option Factor - Implied Volatility - The at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, weighted implied volatility change, annual average implied volatility, call option implied volatility, put option implied volatility, 20 - day historical volatility, and implied - historical volatility difference of multiple agricultural product options are presented [6]. 3.5 Option Strategies and Suggestions 3.5.1 Oil - and - Fat and Oilseed Options - **Soybeans (A2511, B2511)**: The US soybean good - rate is increasing, and the Brazilian soybean CNF premium, import cost, and margin are decreasing. The soybean market is in a weak and volatile state. It is recommended to construct a neutral call + put option selling combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7]. - **Soybean Meal (M2511)**: The domestic soybean crushing volume and operating rate are increasing. The soybean meal market is in a weak and volatile state with pressure above. It is recommended to construct a bear spread strategy of put options, a short - biased call + put option selling combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Palm Oil (P2510)**: The palm oil market shows a short - term bullish upward and then retracement trend. The implied volatility is falling to a level below the historical average. It is recommended to construct a long - biased call + put option selling combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Peanuts (PK2510)**: The peanut price has increased slightly, but the downstream follow - up is not as expected. The market is in a weak consolidation state. It is recommended to construct a bear spread strategy of put options and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. 3.5.2 Agricultural By - product Options - **Live Pigs (LH2511)**: The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is stimulated. The market is in a weak consolidation state. It is recommended to construct a short - biased call + put option selling combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot [11]. - **Eggs (JD2510)**: The egg supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The market is in a weak and bearish state. It is recommended to construct a bear spread strategy of put options, a short - biased call + put option selling combination strategy [12]. - **Apples (AP2511)**: The cold - storage apple inventory is at a low level in recent years. The market is in a state of continuous recovery and upward movement with pressure above. It is recommended to construct a long - biased call + put option selling combination strategy [12]. - **Jujubes (CJ2601)**: The jujube inventory is decreasing, and the market shows a short - term retracement trend. It is recommended to construct a neutral wide - straddle option selling combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [13]. 3.5.3 Soft Commodity Options - **Sugar (SR2511)**: The sugar inventory pressure is not large, but the new - season production is expected to be high. The market is in a weak and bearish state. It is recommended to construct a short - biased call + put option selling combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. - **Cotton (CF2511)**: The cotton production in Xinjiang is expected to increase. The market is in a short - term weak state. It is recommended to construct a long - biased call + put option selling combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot [14]. 3.5.4 Grain Options - **Corn (C2511)**: The corn inventory in the northern port is decreasing, and the new - season supply is limited. The market is in a weak and bearish state with a rebound. It is recommended to construct a short - biased call + put option selling combination strategy [14].
农产品期权策略早报-20250901
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-09-01 01:35
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural product sector includes beans, oils, agricultural by - products, soft commodities, grains, and others. Oilseeds and oils, as well as agricultural by - products, are in a weak and volatile state, while soft commodities like sugar show slight fluctuations, and grains such as corn and starch are in a weak and narrow - range consolidation. It is recommended to construct option portfolio strategies mainly based on sellers, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various agricultural product futures, including soybeans, soybean meal, palm oil, eggs, etc [3]. 3.2 Option Factors 3.2.1 Volume and Open Interest PCR - It shows the volume, volume change, open interest, open interest change, volume PCR, volume PCR change, open interest PCR, and open interest PCR change of different agricultural product options, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market [4]. 3.2.2 Pressure and Support Levels - From the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options, the pressure and support levels of the underlying options are analyzed for various agricultural products [5]. 3.2.3 Implied Volatility - The report provides the at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, weighted implied volatility change, annual average implied volatility, call implied volatility, put implied volatility, historical 20 - day volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility for different agricultural product options [6]. 3.3 Strategy and Recommendations for Different Agricultural Product Options 3.3.1 Oilseeds and Oils Options - **Beans (Soybean 1, Soybean 2)**: The fundamental situation of soybeans shows changes in US soybean good - rate and Brazilian soybean premiums, costs, and crushing margins. The soybean market has a short - term consolidation pattern. Options strategies include constructing a neutral call + put option selling combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [7]. - **Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic soybean crushing volume and开机率 are expected to change. The soybean meal market is in a weak and volatile state. Strategies involve constructing a bear spread strategy for put options, a short - biased call + put option selling combination strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [9]. - **Palm Oil, Soybean Oil, Rapeseed Oil**: The fundamentals of oils show changes in production, exports, and inventories. The palm oil market is in a short - term bullish and then retracement pattern. Strategies include constructing a long - biased call + put option selling combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut market price has increased slightly, but the downstream follow - up is less than expected. The market is in a weak consolidation pattern. Strategies include constructing a bear spread strategy for put options and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. 3.3.2 Agricultural By - products Options - **Pigs**: The supply of pigs is relatively loose, and the demand has increased. The market is in a weak consolidation pattern. Strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option selling combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot [11]. - **Eggs**: The egg supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. The market is in a weak and bearish pattern. Strategies include constructing a bear spread strategy for put options, a short - biased call + put option selling combination strategy [12]. - **Apples**: The apple inventory is at a low level in recent years, and the market is in a gradually warming - up pattern. Strategies include constructing a long - biased call + put option selling combination strategy [12]. - **Red Dates**: The red date inventory has decreased, and the market is in a short - term retracement pattern. Strategies include constructing a neutral strangle option selling combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot hedging [13]. 3.3.3 Soft Commodities Options - **Sugar**: The sugar inventory pressure is not significant, but the de - stocking process has slowed down. The market is in a weak and bearish pattern. Strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option selling combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. - **Cotton**: The cotton production in Xinjiang is expected to increase. The market is in a short - term weak pattern. Strategies include constructing a long - biased call + put option selling combination strategy and a covered call strategy for spot [14]. 3.3.4 Grains Options - **Corn, Starch**: The corn inventory in the northern port has decreased, and the new - crop supply is limited. The market is in a weak and bearish but rebounding pattern. Strategies include constructing a short - biased call + put option selling combination strategy [14].