欧洲央行管委森特诺：并不急于降低利率。 ...

Economic and Market Overview - The first half of 2025 ended with major stock market indexes at record highs, but early trading in the second half is showing a pullback due to ongoing uncertainties [1] - A significant tax bill, referred to as the "Big Beautiful Bill," is expected to pass, which would make corporate tax cuts permanent, potentially adding over $3 trillion to the national debt over the next decade [2] - Trade negotiations are ongoing, with the EU and Japan in detailed talks with the U.S., while a preliminary outline of a trade deal with the UK has been reached [3] Employment and Labor Market - Employment numbers are anticipated to show a slight recovery, with private-sector payrolls expected to reach around 100K and nonfarm payrolls estimated at 110K, which would offset retiring Baby Boomers [4] - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, which may prompt the Federal Reserve to consider lowering interest rates, potentially benefiting industries like housing [5] Market Data and Indicators - Key economic data to be released includes final S&P and ISM Manufacturing PMI for June, Construction Spending for May, and Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for May, with construction spending projected to improve slightly [6] - JOLTS data is expected to show a slight decline in job openings to 7.3 million, down from 7.39 million in April, indicating a significant drop from the peak levels earlier in the year [7] - The Professional & Business Services sector is experiencing a discrepancy, with a reported increase in job openings despite a loss of positions in the previous month, suggesting potential shifts in business spending [8]

Group 1 - Ray Dalio emphasizes the need for bipartisan cooperation to address the U.S. "deficit/debt bomb" through a mix of tax increases and spending cuts [1] - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that Trump's tax and spending plan could add nearly $3.3 trillion to the U.S. deficit over the next decade [1] - Dalio warns that excessive government debt could lead to a hollow economy that fails to serve citizens and deter global investors [1] Group 2 - The U.S. is projected to generate about $5 trillion in revenue this year while spending $7 trillion, resulting in a $2 trillion deficit [2] - Interest payments on the debt are expected to reach $1 trillion, with the government needing to issue approximately $12 trillion in debt next year [2] - Dalio suggests that to restore fiscal health, the budget deficit must be reduced from 6.5% of GDP to 3% through spending cuts, tax increases, and lower interest rates [2] Group 3 - Dalio believes that the government is likely to resort to printing money when faced with difficult choices regarding debt management [3] - He advises investors to hedge against inflation risks and diversify their portfolios [3] Group 4 - Dalio advocates for inflation-protected securities (TIPS) as a safe investment for risk-averse individuals seeking inflation protection [4] - He states that TIPS can provide returns slightly above the inflation rate, making them an attractive option [4] Group 5 - Gold is highlighted as another preferred investment by Dalio, serving as a time-tested store of value and providing diversification and inflation protection [5] - He recommends allocating 10% to 15% of an investment portfolio to gold as a prudent strategy [5]

Core Points - The White House acknowledges that high interest rates remain a significant issue [1] - President Trump previously wrote a letter to Jerome Powell requesting a reduction in interest rates [1] - Powell's actions to address the situation were deemed too late [1]

Core Viewpoint - Trump reiterated his criticism of Powell, urging for lower interest rates [1] Group 1 - Trump emphasized the need for the Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates to stimulate economic growth [1] - The comments reflect ongoing tensions between the Trump administration and the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy [1]

美国总统特朗普：如果美联储主席鲍威尔降低利率，那将会非常好。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce, Gina Raimondo, suggests that interest rates should be lowered in the context of low inflation and rising incomes [1] Group 1 - The current economic environment is characterized by low inflation rates, which may provide an opportunity for monetary policy adjustments [1] - Rising incomes among consumers indicate a strengthening economic backdrop, supporting the case for lower interest rates [1] - The recommendation for lowering interest rates aims to stimulate further economic growth and investment [1]

美联储理事沃勒：美联储有空间降低利率，然后再观察通胀情况的变化。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Swedish central bank suggests that lowering interest rates will stabilize inflation to target levels and help enhance economic activity [1] Group 1 - Lowering interest rates is expected to stabilize inflation [1] - The action is aimed at achieving the central bank's inflation target [1] - Enhanced economic activity is a projected outcome of the interest rate reduction [1]

美国总统特朗普重申，希望 美联储降低 利率。 ...