Market Expectations & Trade Negotiations - The market had largely priced in the complexities of US-China trade negotiations, leading to a muted reaction in Chinese equities [2] - The extension of trade negotiations implies that many details still need to be resolved, contributing to a "wait and see" attitude in the market [2][3] Consumption Trends in China - Despite deflationary pressures, new consumption themes are emerging in China, driven by both younger and older generations [4][5] - These themes include increased spending on jewelry, collectible toys, skincare, and travel, reflecting a desire for self-indulgence amid economic challenges [5] - The "new consumption" trend is expected to continue, influenced by generational shifts and current economic conditions [6] Electric Vehicle (EV) Market - China's EV market is a significant driver for its economy, with increasing exports [7] - The primary concern for Chinese EV producers is domestic competition, with many companies developing high-quality, advanced products [8] - Competition within the Chinese EV market is intensifying due to the emergence of high-quality products and enhanced user experiences [8]

Health & Consumption - Studies suggest moderate consumption is harmless [1] - Moderate consumption may even be beneficial [1]

Inflation & Tariffs - Recent data suggests inflation is emerging, particularly in goods prices due to tariffs, but services inflation continues [2] - The spread between goods and services inflation is key; a widening spread favoring goods inflation could be concerning [3] Labor Market & Consumption - Data indicates a slowing economy, with the labor market being a focal point due to its impact on consumption [4][5] - Weaknesses are apparent in the jobs report, including the employment-to-population ratio, labor force participation rate, and jobs diffusion index [5] - It remains uncertain whether the weakness in the labor market will accelerate in the near term [5] GDP & Capital Expenditure - Capital expenditure (CapEx) is a significant driver of GDP, outpacing consumption in the second quarter [6][7] - AI is currently the main factor driving CapEx spend [7] - A potential rollover in CapEx spend, particularly related to AI, could have significant implications [7]

Studies suggest moderate consumption is harmless. It may even be beneficial https://t.co/iXKF1cZf3H ...

Politicization and weaponization of the Fed and key economic jobs could make it harder for President Trump to get his nominees confirmed by the Senate. For more on this, we want to bring in Libby Cantrell, who is head of public policy at PIMCO. Libby, it's it's kind of hard to think of the president getting shut down over an economic appointee, particularly given how much power he's had and how much sway he has had with the Senate controlled House and Senate lately.But why do you think things are going to b ...

Consumption & Pension Reform - Pension reform is potentially key to unlocking Chinese household consumption [1] - Chinese households' lack of spending is linked to feelings of insecurity [1] - The challenge lies in persuading the government to implement pension reform [1]

Labor Market & Economy - The labor market shows signs of weakening, with the prime age employment rate (25-54 years old) down approximately 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous year, which is atypical for a strong economy [2] - College unemployment rates are increasing, suggesting that rationalizations of the jobs data, such as attributing it to immigration, may be flawed [3] - Real personal consumption has decreased in the first six months of the year, a fact that is not widely recognized [6] Consumer Spending & Housing - The housing sector is experiencing a recession, indicated by a sharp decline in single-family permits [6] - Consumers are financially vulnerable, with real spending declining, including a notable weakening in services [6][7] - Consumers may lack the capacity to absorb higher prices, potentially leading the Federal Reserve to consider rate cuts [5] Monetary Policy & Inflation - The Federal Reserve faces a challenging situation as inflation numbers might worsen during the summer [4] - Nominal incomes are slowing, providing a solid basis for policymakers like Governor Waller [4] - Broad capital expenditure (capex) outside of AI technology is expected to be sluggish due to companies' less optimistic outlook [7]

Government Policy & Funding - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) has completed the allocation of the third batch of 69 billion yuan (approximately $9.5 billion USD) in ultra-long-term special treasury bonds to support consumer goods trade-in [1] - The fourth batch of 69 billion yuan (approximately $9.5 billion USD) in funds is scheduled to be allocated in October [1]

Economic Outlook & Monetary Policy - Consumption growth has slowed significantly, from 3% last year to only 1% this year, marking the first two descents since 1993 focused on consumer behavior and the labor market [1] - With inflation around 2-4% and short rates at 43%, the Fed's monetary policy is considered too restrictive, suggesting potential for more rate cuts than the dot plot indicates [1] Geopolitical Risks & US-China Relations - Despite potential diplomatic efforts, both the US and China are reportedly preparing for potential conflict over Taiwan [1] - The exchange of Nvidia H20 chips for rare earth magnets is viewed as a questionable transaction, potentially enabling China's military advancements [1] - Concessions to China are seen as enabling the modernization of their combat forces, particularly in AI capabilities [1] US-Russia Relations & Sanctions - President Trump is setting a deadline for a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, threatening stricter sanctions if no progress is made [1] - The US has the ability to impose more impactful sanctions on Russia by targeting remaining foreign correspondent banks that facilitate dollar transactions [2][3]

RT L.Lawliet 💢 (@Lfuckjpg)Stick to the hard but right things.Consumption is the new era, mass adoption is coming.https://t.co/5ZBwWYM5sj ...