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摩根士丹利:Investor Presentation-7 月香港&东盟金融业
摩根· 2025-07-11 02:23
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is In-Line for both HK and ASEAN financials, with a preference for high total shareholder return (TSR) stocks in Singapore and Hong Kong [6][4]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic environment is expected to dominate discussions in the second half of the year, particularly regarding the impact of interest rates and potential tariffs on China and Hong Kong, as well as supply chain relocations into ASEAN [2][3]. - Singapore banks are anticipated to perform well, potentially benefiting from a lower cost of equity if revitalization measures for Singapore's equity market are implemented [2]. - Defensive stocks are favored in the current climate, with UOB being the most preferred bank in Singapore, while HSBC and Standard Chartered are expected to perform well due to dividends, share buybacks, and high return on equity (RoE) [2][4]. Summary by Sections Singapore and Hong Kong Financials - Preferred stocks include SGX, UOB, HSBC, and Standard Chartered, while Hang Seng and BoCHK are least preferred [4]. - Target prices for preferred stocks are set at 15.90 for SGX, 90.00 HKD for UOB, and 121.50 HKD for HSBC, with current prices showing slight upside potential for SGX and UOB, but downside for HSBC [8]. - The average daily traded value for UOB is 199 million USD, indicating strong liquidity [8]. Emerging Markets (EM) ASEAN - The report indicates a less favorable outlook for EM in the near term, particularly for Indonesia, where economic risks and lower commodity prices are expected to limit loan growth [3]. - The Philippines is highlighted as a preferred EM, benefiting from resilient RoE and increased retail lending penetration, with BDO and BPI being the preferred banks [3][9]. - Target prices for preferred EM banks include 10,017.00 for BCA and 8,625.00 for BRI, with current prices showing significant upside potential [9]. Financial Metrics - The report estimates a 2025 RoE of 33.3% for Singapore banks, with a target price-to-earnings ratio (PER) of 33.1 for SGX [8]. - Malaysian banks are expected to show defensive characteristics, but with stretched valuations compared to Singapore banks [2][3]. - The estimated dividend yield on target prices for preferred banks ranges from 2.3% for SGX to 6.0% for UOB in 2026 [9].
摩根士丹利:全球 360 度观察-我们对世界各地的看法
摩根· 2025-07-11 01:14
Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on global economic growth, with expectations of a slowdown due to tariffs and restrictive immigration policies [17][41]. Core Insights - The report highlights that tariff-induced inflation is expected to rise, impacting growth forecasts across various regions, particularly in the US and Euro area [17][41]. - It anticipates a gradual cooling of economic growth in the US, with real GDP growth projected at 1.6% quarter-on-quarter for Q2 2025, and a potential trough in growth by the end of 2025 [13][41]. - In the Euro area, GDP growth for Q1 2025 was revised up to 0.6%, but a decline is expected in Q2 due to trade uncertainties [14][45]. - Japan's economy shows resilience in manufacturing, but inflationary pressures from food prices are becoming a concern [15][43]. - China's GDP is projected to grow 5.2% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, but a slowdown to around 4.5% is anticipated in the second half due to various economic strains [16][47]. - The report emphasizes that while the global economy is slowing, it is not expected to tip into recession, largely due to strong starting conditions at the beginning of the year [17]. Summary by Sections US Economic Outlook - Real GDP growth is expected to be 1.6% quarter-on-quarter for Q2 2025, with inflation pressures leading to a cautious Federal Reserve stance [13][41]. - The labor market remains tight, but immigration restrictions are projected to lower net immigration significantly [41][43]. Euro Area Economic Outlook - GDP growth in Q1 2025 was revised to 0.6%, but a correction is expected in Q2 due to front-loaded exports and trade uncertainties [14][45]. - Inflation is projected to remain below the ECB's target through 2026, with expected rate cuts resuming in September [14][45]. Japan Economic Outlook - Nominal growth remains positive, with manufacturing sentiment holding up despite tariff risks [15][43]. - Food inflation is becoming sticky, pushing underlying inflation higher, while wage growth remains around 3% [15][43]. China Economic Outlook - GDP growth is projected at 5.2% year-on-year in 1H25, with a slowdown to around 4.5% in 2H25 anticipated [16][47]. - Persistent PPI deflation and modest core CPI gains indicate ongoing deflationary pressures [16][47]. Global Strategy Outlook - The report suggests that US risky and risk-free assets are attractive compared to the rest of the world, with a focus on US equities and core fixed income [25].
Wells Fargo’s Darrell Cronk: We see one rate cut in 2025 and one in 2026
CNBC Television· 2025-07-09 18:43
Interest Rate Outlook - Wells Fargo anticipates one rate cut in 2025 and one in 2026, suggesting a neutral rate around 100 basis points above inflation [3] - Piper Sandler suggests the economy needs rate cuts to broaden fundamental breadth beyond the largest companies and wealthiest consumers [7][13] - The market is already at all-time highs, priced for only a couple of cuts [4] Economic Indicators and Analysis - The economy is bifurcated, with housing and small caps showing weakness, while S&P 500 profits are at new highs [6][7] - US PMIs remain broadly in contraction territory [6] - Unemployment at 41%, and Q2 GDP tracking around 25% do not indicate an immediate need for Fed rate cuts [9] - Positive year-over-year earnings growth suggests no imminent recession or material slowdown [10] Earnings Growth - Consensus is tracking 5% to 6% earnings growth for Q2, potentially reaching 7% to 9% with beats, following Q1's 15% earnings growth [11] Market Performance - NASDAQ is at an all-time high, with Nvidia's market cap exceeding $4 trillion [1] - The market exhibits narrowness, with concerns about smaller companies and lower-income consumers being left behind [8][13]
Expect a slowdown in GDP growth, so three rate cuts likely, says Citi's Rob Rowe
CNBC Television· 2025-07-08 15:58
Let's stick with the tariffs and the impact on markets as the major indices come off their worst day since about the middle of June. Joining us here at Post 9 this morning is city's research headed global strategy Rob once again with us. Welcome back Rob.Good to see you. Thank you very much. Hi Courtney.The president says August 1 is the date. Does that introduce new uh instability for equities or not. right now.I think, you know, I think it's going to be up and down because we're in this negotiation period ...
摩根士丹利:中国经济评论- 第二季度增长强劲,未来面临更多阻力
摩根· 2025-07-03 02:41
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - China's GDP growth is expected to remain robust at 5.0-5.2% YoY for Q2 2025, supported by front-loading of exports and earlier government stimulus measures [4][32] - The property market continues to face challenges, with 30-city property sales declining by 10% YoY in June, and top 100 developers' contract sales volume down by 35% YoY [9][19] - Manufacturing PMIs show slight improvements, with NBS manufacturing PMI at 49.7 and Caixin manufacturing PMI at 50.4 in June, indicating a less negative growth momentum [7][10] Economic Data Summary - **GDP Growth**: Q2 GDP growth is projected at 5.0-5.2% YoY, with a slower sequential growth compared to Q1 [4][32] - **Industrial Production**: Expected to soften to 5.4% YoY in June, down from 5.8% YoY in May [3][16] - **Retail Sales**: Anticipated to moderate to 6% YoY in June, slightly down from 6.4% YoY in May [23] - **Fixed Asset Investment (FAI)**: Overall FAI growth likely recorded 3% YoY in June, with property investment declining by 10-12% YoY [20] - **Exports and Imports**: Export growth expected to edge down to 4% YoY in June, while imports may improve to 1% YoY [23] Sector-Specific Insights - **Manufacturing Sector**: NBS manufacturing PMI increased by 0.2ppt to 49.7 in June, with improvements in new orders and production indices [7][10] - **Property Sector**: The property market continues to weaken, with significant declines in sales and new starts [9][19] - **Automotive Sector**: Auto retail sales growth picked up to 24% YoY in June, driven by a low base and trade-in subsidies [23][38] High-Frequency Data - **PMIs**: NBS non-manufacturing PMI edged up to 50.5 in June, indicating slight growth in services, while construction PMI improved significantly [8] - **Port Activities**: Port cargo throughput growth moderated to 1% YoY in June, reflecting a slowdown in trade activities [9][17] - **Credit Growth**: Total social financing (TSF) credit growth likely edged up to 8.8% YoY in June, with new RMB loans at approximately RMB 1.85 trillion [30][31]
What’s Keeping the Fed on Hold? | Presented by CME Group
Bloomberg Television· 2025-06-26 15:33
[Music] On June 18th, the Federal Reserve wrapped up its most recent FOMC meeting where they left the Fed funds rate unchanged for the fourth straight time and gave the largely expected comments about continuing to monitor inflation and labor market data amid ongoing economic uncertainty. The chairman mentioned particular uncertainty around the inflationary effects of tariff policy. It takes some time for tariffs to work their way through the chain of distribution to the end consumer.we're beginning to see ...
巴克莱:美国展望_ 现在谈美联储政策转向还为时过早
2025-06-18 00:54
Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion primarily revolves around the **US economy**, focusing on inflation trends, trade policies, and Federal Reserve monetary policy. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Inflation Trends**: - May's inflation data showed a softer-than-expected increase, with Core CPI rising only **0.13% m/m (2.8% y/y)**, significantly below expectations of **0.27%** and **0.30%** from Barclays and consensus respectively [2][4] - The overall CPI inflation was also soft at **0.08% m/m (2.3% y/y)**, influenced by declining gasoline prices [2][4] 2. **Trade Policy Impact**: - The US-China trade discussions have not made significant progress, with the current truce set to expire on **August 10**. The administration is considering restoring country-specific tariffs and increasing sectoral tariffs on autos [4][11] - Businesses are expected to pass through approximately **50%** of tariff costs to consumer prices, which could significantly impact retail margins [6][11] 3. **Federal Reserve's Stance**: - The FOMC is expected to maintain the current target range for the funds rate at **4.25-4.50%**, with only one rate cut anticipated this year and three in **2026** [17][31] - Updated projections are likely to reflect higher inflation and downgraded GDP growth for **2025**, with core PCE inflation expected at **3.1%** [18][31] 4. **Economic Growth Projections**: - The GDP growth forecast for the current quarter is projected at **1.2% q/q saar**, with consumer spending showing signs of strength despite inflationary pressures [25][31] - The unemployment rate is expected to rise to **4.5%** by **2025**, indicating a potential slowdown in the labor market [18][31] 5. **Consumer Sentiment and Spending**: - Recent consumer sentiment data showed improvement, with the current conditions index rising to **63.7** and expectations increasing to **58.4** [14][27] - Retail sales are anticipated to show weakness, with a forecasted decline of **1.0% m/m** due to falling vehicle sales and gasoline prices [15][31] Other Important but Overlooked Content - The **PPI** for final goods rose only **0.1% m/m (2.6% y/y)**, indicating a continued soft trajectory since March [3][4] - The **Treasury budget deficit** grew to **$316.0 billion** in May, highlighting ongoing fiscal challenges [27] - Initial jobless claims have remained elevated, indicating some deterioration in labor market conditions, with claims at **248k** for the week ending June 7 [13][27] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, focusing on the economic outlook, inflation trends, trade policy implications, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance.
高盛:6 月FOMC前瞻:对关税的谨慎看法
Goldman Sachs· 2025-06-17 06:17
Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Trade tensions have diminished somewhat since the last FOMC meeting, with low inflation and limited signs of economic softening observed [2][5] - The FOMC is expected to maintain a cautious stance regarding tariffs and economic projections, emphasizing the uncertainty in the economic outlook [6][16] - Economic forecasts include a projected 14 percentage point increase in the effective tariff rate, leading to a peak core PCE inflation of 3.4%, GDP growth slowing to 1.25% in 2025, and an unemployment rate increase to 4.4% [7][8][17] Economic Projections - The median projection for 2025 indicates slightly higher inflation at 3.0%, lower GDP growth at 1.5%, and a higher unemployment rate at 4.5% [17][21] - The FOMC is anticipated to deliver the first of three normalization cuts in December, with a terminal rate of 3.5-3.75% expected by 2026 [25][27] - The report highlights that aside from tariffs, inflation news has been relatively soft, with wage growth expectations and new tenant rent growth declining [26][30] Tariff Impact - The report outlines that tariffs are expected to reduce GDP growth by almost 1 percentage point due to their tax-like effect on consumer spending and the uncertainty they create for business investment [8][10] - The effective tariff rate is projected to increase significantly, with over 9 percentage points attributed to tariffs already in effect [7][10] Summary of Economic Projections - Real GDP growth is forecasted at 1.3% for 2025, with an unemployment rate of 4.4% and core PCE inflation at 3.0% [19][20] - The FOMC's interest rate projections are expected to remain unchanged, with a close split among participants regarding future cuts [21][24]
CBO Director Phillip Swagel addresses accusations of being partisan
CNBC Television· 2025-06-16 12:55
boosting the richest by $12,000 a year. Joining us right now is Phil Swagel. He's the director of the Congressional Budget Office.And Phil, let's talk through some of the criticism you've received. Russ Vought said on X that this bill reduces deficits by $1.4% trillion. When you adjust for the CBO's one big gimmick, not using a realistic current policy baseline.Caroline Leavitt said that the CBO assumes long term GDP growth of an anemic 1.8%. And that's absurd. And then you had President Trump himself sayin ...
Israel-Iran attacks are absolutely inflationary, says Apollo's Torsten Slock
CNBC Television· 2025-06-13 19:33
And let's bring in Torston Slock. He is partner and chief economist at Apollo. And Torstston, don't worry.We're not going to ask you to pine on any of the geopolitical stuff. You your job as an economist is to factor in all the costs that we see and establish a conclusion. Here's the reality about the price of oil. We we think about the price of oil when it comes to gasoline.And that's true. About half of a barrel of oil goes into gasoline. But oil goes into a lot of things.Plastics, natural gas, by the way ...