Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's decision on a potential rate cut in December is uncertain due to the lack of official inflation and job market data resulting from the government shutdown [1][4][5] Economic Data Impact - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has delayed the release of the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which could impact the Fed's decision-making process [5][6] - The September CPI showed a lower-than-expected increase of 3% year-over-year, and alternative measures suggest a similar trend for October [2][3] Federal Reserve's Position - Fed officials are facing challenges in assessing economic conditions due to the absence of official reports, which complicates the debate on whether another rate cut is necessary [4][6] - New York Fed President John Williams indicated that the next rate decision is a balancing act, acknowledging high inflation while noting the economy's resilience [7] Global Economic Context - Other central banks, such as the Bank of Canada and the Reserve Bank of India, are also closely monitoring inflation data to inform their monetary policy decisions [7][9][10] - In Asia, China's consumer prices unexpectedly rose in October, while India's inflation is expected to slow, influencing the Reserve Bank of India's policy outlook [9][10] Regional Developments - In Europe, the Bank of England is preparing for a potential rate cut in December, with upcoming labor statistics and GDP data expected to provide further insights [13][14] - The eurozone is experiencing a quieter data week, with key indicators like Germany's ZEW investor confidence and industrial production being monitored [15]

Economic Indicators - The University of Michigan's US Nov 1-year inflation expectations rose unexpectedly to +4.7%, surpassing the expected +4.6% [1] - The Nov 5-10 year inflation expectations decreased to +3.6%, below the anticipated +3.8% [1] - The US Nov consumer sentiment index fell by -3.3 to a nearly 3.5-year low of 50.3, weaker than the expected 53.0 [1] Stock Market Performance - US stock indexes initially declined but recovered later, closing mixed as Senate Democrats proposed a one-year extension of health care subsidies [3] - The S&P 500 Index closed up +0.13%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index up +0.16%, while the Nasdaq 100 Index fell -0.28% [4] - Semiconductor stocks faced pressure, contributing to broader market weakness, with significant job cuts announced by US companies [2] Corporate Earnings - Q3 corporate earnings season showed strong results, with 81% of S&P 500 companies beating forecasts, indicating the best quarter since 2021 [8] - Q3 profits are projected to rise by +7.2% y/y, the smallest increase in two years, while sales growth is expected to slow to +5.9% y/y [8] International Trade - China's October exports unexpectedly fell -1.1% y/y, the largest decline in 8 months, while imports rose +1.0% y/y, weaker than expectations [5] Government and Monetary Policy - The US government shutdown, now the longest in history, is impacting market sentiment and the economy, with a 66% chance of a -25 bp rate cut at the next FOMC meeting [6] - Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson's comments on interest rates being "somewhat restrictive" have contributed to a cautious market outlook [2][11] Notable Company Movements - Globus Medical (GMED) shares rose over +35% after reporting Q3 net sales of $769 million, exceeding expectations [13] - Expedia Group (EXPE) closed up more than +17% after reporting Q3 adjusted EPS of $7.57, significantly above consensus [13] - Microchip Technology (MCHP) shares fell over -5% after forecasting weaker-than-expected Q3 net sales [16]

The dollar index (DXY00) on Friday fell to a 1-week low and finished down by -0.15%.  The dollar moved lower on Friday due to some carryover pressure from Thursday, when a report from Challenger showed US job cuts in October surged by 175% y/y, the most in 22 years, bolstering the outlook for the Fed to keep cutting interest rates.  The dollar fell to its lows on Friday after the University of Michigan's US Nov consumer sentiment index fell more than expected to a nearly 3.5-year low. The dollar is still ...

It was an interesting day of trading on Thursday, with all the major indices losing ground, led by a 1.86% decline in the Russell 2000. As I write this before Friday’s open, the futures are down, suggesting another possible day of losses to finish a week that’s seen the Nasdaq lose 2.8% in the first four days. More News from Barchart Perhaps the worst news yesterday was the jobs data released by Challenger, Gray & Christmas, which showed businesses cut 153,074 jobs in October, the highest October total ...

The U.S. stock market is experiencing a significant midday sell-off on Friday, November 7, 2025, as investors grapple with persistent concerns over the stretched valuations of artificial intelligence (AI) stocks, the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, and recent weak labor market data. All three major indexes are firmly in negative territory, reflecting a broad "risk-off" sentiment dominating trading floors.Major Index Performance and Midday MomentumAs of midday, the market momentum is decidedly bearish, wit ...

Market Overview - European markets are expected to open mixed, with the U.K.'s FTSE 100 set to open slightly lower, while France's CAC index and Italy's FTSE MIB are seen 0.1% higher, and Germany's DAX index is little changed from the previous session [1] - European stocks closed lower on Thursday, with most sectors and major bourses ending in negative territory after a busy earnings day [1] Company Performance - Diageo's stock fell 6.5% after the company cut its full-year guidance, citing weakness in the Chinese and U.S. markets [2] - Upcoming earnings reports include companies such as Richemont, International Consolidated Airlines Group SA, Daimler Truck Holding AG, Amadeus IT Group SA, Cellnex Telecom SA, and OTP Bank NYRT [2] Economic Data - Investors are focused on upcoming data releases, including import and export data in Germany, French trade figures, and the U.K.'s House Price Index [3] - Recent central bank decisions saw the Bank of England and Norway's central bank hold rates steady, with BOE Governor Andrew Bailey indicating that rate cuts are anticipated, with economists pricing in a pre-Christmas rate cut [3][4]

Market Overview - The markets are currently pricing in a 69% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting on December 9-10 [1] - US stock indexes experienced declines, with the S&P 500 down -1.12%, Dow Jones down -0.84%, and Nasdaq 100 down -1.91%, reaching two-week lows [4][5] Economic Indicators - US October Challenger job cuts surged by +175.3% year-on-year to 153,074, marking the largest increase in seven months and the highest for an October in 22 years [2] - Year-to-date job cuts have exceeded 1 million, the highest since the pandemic, with employers announcing the fewest hiring plans since 2011 [2] Corporate Earnings - The Q3 corporate earnings season is strong, with 81% of S&P 500 companies reporting earnings that beat expectations, indicating the best quarter since 2021 [3][7] - However, Q3 profits are expected to rise by only +7.2% year-on-year, the smallest increase in two years, and sales growth is projected to slow to +5.9% year-on-year from +6.4% in Q2 [7] Sector Performance - Weakness in semiconductor stocks negatively impacted the overall market, with notable declines in companies such as Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) down more than -7% and Nvidia (NVDA) down more than -3% [4][14] - Companies like Elf Beauty (ELF) and Duolingo (DUO) saw significant stock declines of more than -34% and -26% respectively, due to disappointing earnings forecasts [15][16] Interest Rates and Bond Market - The 10-year T-note yield fell -7 basis points to 4.09%, driven by expectations that the Fed will continue to cut interest rates following weak labor reports [3][9] - T-note prices received support from the ongoing US government shutdown, which is the longest in history and may lead to additional job losses and reduced consumer spending [10] International Markets - Overseas stock markets showed mixed results, with the Euro Stoxx 50 down -1.02% and China's Shanghai Composite up +0.97% [8]

Economic Indicators - The dollar index fell by -0.49% on Thursday, influenced by a report showing US job cuts surged by 175% year-on-year in October, marking the largest increase in 22 years [1][3] - Year-to-date job cuts have exceeded 1 million, the highest since the pandemic, with employers announcing the fewest hiring plans since 2011 [3] Federal Reserve Outlook - Hawkish comments from Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack indicated a preference for no additional Fed rate cuts, supporting the dollar [2][4] - Goolsbee expressed unease about ongoing interest rate cuts due to a lack of inflation data during the government shutdown, while Hammack emphasized concerns about high inflation and the need for a mildly restrictive monetary policy [4] Currency Movements - The euro rose by +0.49% on Thursday, supported by dollar weakness and optimistic comments from ECB Vice President Guindos regarding Eurozone growth [5] - However, negative factors for the euro included an unexpected decline in Eurozone retail sales and lower-than-expected German industrial production for September [5]

Group 1: Legal and Regulatory Developments - The US Supreme Court is questioning the legality of President Trump's reciprocal tariffs, with Chief Justice Roberts emphasizing that tariff imposition is a core power of Congress [1] - Lower courts have ruled Trump's tariffs illegal, based on a questionable claim of emergency authority under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act [1] - If the Supreme Court upholds these rulings, the US government may need to refund over $80 billion in tariffs already collected [1] Group 2: Labor Market and Economic Indicators - US job cuts surged by 175.3% year-over-year in October, totaling 153,074, marking the largest increase in seven months and the highest for an October in 22 years [3] - Year-to-date job cuts have exceeded 1 million, the highest since the pandemic, with employers announcing the fewest hiring plans since 2011 [3] - The ongoing US government shutdown is affecting market sentiment and delaying government reports, which could further impact the economy [8][10] Group 3: Stock Market Performance - US stock indexes are retreating, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 reaching two-week lows due to evidence of a cooling labor market and weakness in semiconductor stocks [5][6] - The S&P 500 Index is down 0.97%, the Dow Jones is down 0.76%, and the Nasdaq 100 is down 1.61% [6] - Despite the downturn, 81% of S&P 500 companies reporting Q3 earnings have beaten expectations, indicating strong corporate performance [4][7] Group 4: Interest Rates and Bond Market - The markets are pricing in a 69% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting [2] - The 10-year T-note yield has decreased by 7 basis points to 4.09%, influenced by weak labor data and expectations of continued interest rate cuts [4][9] - The ongoing government shutdown is providing underlying support for T-note prices, as it may lead to additional job losses and reduced consumer spending [10] Group 5: Company-Specific Developments - Semiconductor stocks are underperforming, with AMD down over 7% and Qualcomm down over 4% [14] - Elf Beauty's stock has dropped more than 32% after forecasting 2026 adjusted EPS significantly below consensus [15] - Datadog's stock has risen over 21% after raising its full-year adjusted EPS forecast above consensus [17]

Group 1: Legal and Regulatory Developments - The US Supreme Court is questioning the legality of President Trump's reciprocal tariffs, with Chief Justice Roberts emphasizing that imposing taxes is a core power of Congress [1] - Lower courts have ruled Trump's tariffs illegal, based on a questionable claim of emergency authority under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act [1] - If the Supreme Court upholds these rulings, the US government may need to refund over $80 billion in tariffs already collected [1] Group 2: Labor Market and Economic Indicators - US job cuts surged by 175.3% year-over-year in October, totaling 153,074, marking the largest increase in seven months and the highest for an October in 22 years [3][5] - Year-to-date job cuts have exceeded 1 million, the highest since the pandemic, with employers announcing the fewest hiring plans since 2011 [3] - The ongoing US government shutdown is impacting market sentiment and delaying government reports, adversely affecting the economy [8] Group 3: Corporate Earnings and Market Performance - 81% of S&P 500 companies reporting Q3 earnings have beaten expectations, indicating a strong earnings season, although profits are expected to rise by only 7.2% year-over-year, the smallest increase in two years [4][7] - The S&P 500 Index is down 0.19%, with the Dow Jones down 0.15% and the Nasdaq down 0.45%, reflecting concerns over the labor market [6] - Strong corporate earnings are providing support for stocks despite the cooling labor market [4] Group 4: Interest Rates and Bond Market - The markets are pricing in a 69% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting [2] - The 10-year T-note yield has decreased by 5 basis points to 4.11%, influenced by weak labor reports and expectations of continued Fed rate cuts [4][9] - European government bond yields are also declining, with the 10-year German bund yield down 0.7 basis points to 2.666% [10]