Core Insights - The global economy is performing better than anticipated despite significant shocks, but the resilience may not be sustainable, according to Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the IMF [1][3] - Gold prices have surged to $4,000 an ounce, indicating investor concerns over a weaker dollar and geopolitical uncertainties [1] - The IMF forecasts a 3% growth for the global economy this year, attributing this to decisive economic policies, private sector adaptation, and less severe impacts from tariffs than initially feared [3] Economic Policies and Tariffs - Georgieva highlighted that the full effects of President Trump's tariffs are yet to be realized, with potential implications for inflation and monetary policy in the US [4][10] - The tariffs have created global uncertainty, affecting trade frameworks with countries like the UK and Vietnam [5] - There is a risk of additional tariff hikes due to a surplus of goods that were initially intended for the US market [6] Youth Discontent and Global Protests - There is a growing trend of youth discontent globally, with young people demanding better opportunities as they face a future of potentially lower earnings than their parents [7] - This discontent is manifesting in protests across various cities worldwide, indicating a significant socio-economic challenge [7] US Federal Debt Concerns - The US federal debt has escalated dramatically, from $380 billion in 1925 to $37.64 trillion in 2025, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [8] - The Congressional Budget Office projects that Trump's tax and spending policies will add $3.4 trillion to the national debt by 2034 [8]

The International Monetary Fund raising the curtain on their 2025 annual meetings kicking off next week, outlining expectations for the global economy amid quote exceptionally high uncertainty. Joining us here first on CNBC is IMF managing director Cristina Gorgva. Madame MD, welcome back.It's nice to have you. >> Great to be with you. >> So, it sounds like you're saying the global economy, here's how you you characterize it, better than feared, but worse than we need.I I've been really eager to ask you par ...

Core Message - The speech emphasizes the importance of embracing uncertainty and taking chances to unlock potential and achieve personal growth [5][7][9] - It encourages individuals to ask for what they want and not be afraid of failure, as breakthroughs often come from uncertainty [5][6][9] - The speaker advocates for living in the "in-between," the space between perceived limitations and potential capabilities [7] Key Concepts - **Paradoxical Thinking:** Combining opposing ideas (art and science, data and intuition, stability and risk, emotion and logic) can lead to innovation, better decisions, entrepreneurship, and good leadership [11][12] - **Redefining Success:** Success is unique to each individual and should not be defined by societal norms or fixed outcomes [25] - **Embracing Uncertainty:** Breakthroughs often arise from uncertainty, and individuals should be comfortable living in the question [9][12] Practical Application - The speaker shares a personal anecdote about moving from India to Japan at 17, highlighting the challenges and eventual success in adapting to a new culture and language [14][17][18] - The "bag" exercise illustrates that individuals are best equipped to handle their own problems [27][31] - The speaker encourages listeners to view life as a living laboratory, where experiments (even failures) are opportunities for growth and resilience [24]

Well, as you know by now, there is no official jobs report today because of the government shutdown. But we found another way to try and get a look at employment in the month of September. We're going to call this our own squawk survey.Evans S is the CEO of Aura Intelligence. That's a platform for workforce analytics. Bill Dunlberg is the chief economist at the National Federation of Independent Businesses.Both have real data on the state of jobs in this country. And of course, we have our very own senior e ...

Market Impact of Potential Government Shutdown - Markets dislike uncertainty, and a short-term shutdown is not expected to significantly impact the bond or stock market, but a persistent shutdown could increase volatility [1][3] - A government shutdown could lead to a bond market rally, particularly on the short end of the curve, while equities may wobble [2] - If the shutdown persists and the Fed doesn't receive necessary data, markets may become shaky, leading to a flight to safety [4] - The absence of government data like CPI and PPI due to the shutdown is more problematic for the market because it impacts the Fed's decision-making process regarding rate cuts [6][7] - The market is expecting around three rate cuts through the balance of the year, and a lack of data could put those rate cuts on hold [6] Sector Performance and Investment Trends - Healthcare and utilities are leading sectors, indicating a defensive tilt in the market, while tech is also hitting new highs, driven by AI and cybersecurity investments [8][9][10] - Companies are becoming more efficient with fewer people, fueling growth in the tech sector [10] - Investors are showing a flight to quality, seeking security and retirement security, and leaning towards more conservative and balanced portfolios [9][11] Retirement Savings and Investment Strategies - TIAA manages approximately $955 billion in assets in its retirement business [12] - People are moving towards target date funds and looking for guaranteed income options [12] - While private markets can pose more risk, participants are guided to save, diversify their asset allocation, and balance it against their risk profile, including bonds, stocks, and guaranteed asset classes [13][14] - 95% of people would want to have guaranteed income in addition to social security [14] - Plan sponsors are increasingly offering guaranteed income options as part of employees' diversified portfolios [15] - There's a trend towards diversified portfolios with protection during accumulation and the option for guaranteed lifetime income [15][16]

With many uncertainties around the government shutdown, here's how it could affect your finances. When it comes to your portfolio, investor sentiment may be jarred in the short term, particularly if the shutdown affects the Fed's rate lowering agenda. That could mean potential volatility in financial markets.But historically, shutdowns have not resulted in a major sell-off. Now, turning to the economy, the impact will depend on the length of the shutdown. Federal employees won't get paid until the governmen ...

Welcome back everybody. Our next guest has advice for business leaders in today's increasingly uncertain world. Joining us right now is Harvard Business School professor Ranjay Guladi.His new book is How to Be Bold: The Surprising Science of Everyday Courage. And Ranj, thank you for coming in today. >> Thank you.My pleasure to be here with you today. >> I was going to start by asking you what courage is. Um maybe we should start though with what we were just discussing and that's how you differentiate uncer ...

Industry Trends - Extreme weather events are surging, creating uncertainty around FEMA [1] - Entrepreneurs are eager to fill the vacuum created by FEMA uncertainty and extreme weather [1]

We've all had moments in life when it feels like life is slipping through our fingers. Maybe it was a big sports competition, an important test, or an event that seemed perfect until it fell apart in the last minute. In these moments, we often try and grab control.We think that by managing every tiny detail and predicting every possible outcome, we'll avoid disappointment, failure, or unexpected twists. But here's the truth. Control is nothing but an illusion.Why do we crave control so much. It's not just a ...

Risk vs Uncertainty - The insurance industry distinguishes between risk, where outcomes and probabilities are known, and uncertainty, where they are not [1] Pharmaceutical Industry Impact - The GLP1 obesity drug market is projected to reach over $471 billion by 2032, raising questions about its impact on life expectancy and potential insurance payouts [2][3] Climate Change Implications - UK property insurance payouts have reached a 20-year high, and global natural disaster costs have trebled to over $100 billion annually for the insurance industry [4] - Climate change poses a systemic threat to the financial system, potentially leading to soaring insurance costs and insurer withdrawal from climate-linked risks [5] Industry Adaptation - The insurance industry needs to shift from reactive underwriting to proactive risk mitigation in response to systemic changes [6] - Deep system changes present an opportunity for long-term investors to create a net-zero, nature-positive, socially constructive, and digitally enabled economy [6]