Market Overview - The market has recovered most of its losses from earlier in the quarter, finishing strong despite initial turbulence caused by President Trump's trade policies [1][2] - The upcoming week is expected to be shortened, following a quarter that started poorly but ended on a high note, emphasizing the importance of maintaining a steady investment approach [2] Company Insights - Constellation Brands is expected to report disappointing earnings, reflecting broader challenges in the consumer packaged goods sector [4] - The company faces headwinds from the rise of GLP-1 weight loss drugs and increasing consumer preference for cannabis, which are negatively impacting alcohol sales [4] - Constellation Brands' sales are particularly affected by Trump's immigration policies, as approximately half of its beer sales come from Hispanic consumers who are now spending less due to concerns over employment [4] Economic Indicators - The Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index will be released, serving as a key indicator of the industrial economy's health, with potential implications for Federal Reserve interest rate decisions [3] - Mortgage application figures are anticipated, which have been described as a significant burden on the economy [5] - The labor report set to be released on Thursday is critical; weak data could lead to renewed criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell and raise the possibility of a rate cut in July [5]

Company Performance - Nike reported fiscal Q4 earnings of $0.14 per share, exceeding expectations by $0.02, marking the eighth consecutive quarter of beating estimates [5] - Revenues for Nike in Q4 were $11.1 billion, although this represents a decline from $12.61 billion in the same quarter last year [5] - Full-year revenues for Nike totaled $46.3 billion, which was above the Zacks consensus but still down 10% year over year [6] - North America revenues for Nike decreased by 11% year over year, a trend that was consistent across all global regions [6] - Despite a strong trading day with a gain of 2.8%, Nike shares fell by 1.6% following the earnings announcement [6] Market Overview - The stock market is showing resilience, with all markets except the small-cap Russell 2000 up for the year, and the S&P 500 nearing all-time highs [2] - The AI sector is experiencing a resurgence, with companies like NVIDIA and Palantir reaching new record highs [2] - The White House indicated that the July 9th deadline on reciprocal tariffs is "not critical," which has alleviated concerns among investors [3] - Continuing Jobless Claims have worsened, suggesting a weakening labor market, which may prompt the Federal Reserve to consider cutting interest rates [4] Economic Indicators - Upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data is anticipated, with year-over-year projections of 2.3% growth and 2.6% on core PCE, close to the Fed's inflation target of 2.0% [7]

Core Insights - AST SpaceMobile's stock experienced significant gains, closing up 9.3% amid a strong trading session for space stocks, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both rose by 1% [1] - The company's valuation increased due to excitement in the space industry, geopolitical developments, and favorable comments from a Federal Reserve official, despite a downgrade from Scotiabank [2][4] - AST stock has surged 398% over the past year, reflecting strong investor interest despite recent caution from analysts [4] Market Dynamics - Scotiabank downgraded AST's rating from outperform to sector perform, citing concerns over valuation while acknowledging the company's technology and growth potential [4] - The stock initially opened lower, down 6.4%, but rebounded due to emerging catalysts, including military actions between the U.S. and Iran, which highlighted defense industry opportunities [5] - Federal Reserve comments regarding potential interest rate cuts have created a bullish sentiment for AST and other growth-dependent space stocks [6][7]

Core Insights - The Australian housing market is experiencing a significant recovery, with median house prices in major cities expected to rise sharply in the 2026 financial year, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne [1][2][7]. Group 1: Sydney Market - Sydney's median house price is projected to exceed AUD 1.8 million in the next financial year, with a growth rate of 7% anticipated [2][5]. - The market is highly sensitive to interest rate changes, which could further drive up prices [3][5]. - Current clearance rates in Sydney are around 70%, indicating strong demand and potential for price increases [5]. Group 2: Melbourne Market - Melbourne's median house price is expected to reach AUD 1.112 million, with a growth rate of 6% forecasted for FY26 [2][7]. - The market is entering a recovery phase after a period of underperformance, with increased buyer interest noted [7][9]. - Factors such as interest rate cuts and generational wealth transfer are expected to boost buyer capacity and market activity [9]. Group 3: Other Capital Cities - Brisbane's median house price is projected to approach AUD 1.1 million, with a stable growth rate of 5% [2]. - Perth is also expected to see its median price reach nearly AUD 1 million, with a growth rate of 5% [2]. - Adelaide's market is forecasted to grow at a slower pace of 4%, with a median price of approximately AUD 1.049 million [2].

Market Overview - The broader market has experienced a strong rally, with the S&P 500 delivering a total return of 10.5% over the last 12 months, driven by indications of moderating inflation and hopes for lower interest rates [1] Financial Sector Outlook - The outlook for financial companies is heavily influenced by macroeconomic conditions and the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy [2] PayPal Analysis - PayPal's stock is down approximately 17% year to date and 77% from its all-time high in 2021, despite solid gains in the broader financial sector [4] - The company maintains a strong position in the payments and financial services industry, with few competitors matching its financial foundations and operational track record [5] - PayPal's total revenue increased by 1% year over year to $7.8 billion, while total payment volume rose by 3% annually to $417.2 billion [6] - Non-GAAP earnings per share increased by 23% year over year to $1.33, with the company holding $15.8 billion in cash against $12.6 billion in debt after returning $1.5 billion to shareholders through stock buybacks [7] - PayPal stock is currently trading at 13.5 times this year's expected earnings, with potential for a more favorable operating environment if the Fed cuts interest rates [8] - The stock is viewed as an attractive investment opportunity in the financial sector due to its solid business foundations and encouraging performance [9] Prudential Financial Analysis - Prudential Financial is positioned to benefit from a potential increase in long-term interest rates, which could lead to higher yields on future bond purchases [13] - The stock is currently down 19% from its lifetime high, and higher interest rates may lower the value of its current bonds but increase the discount rate on its liabilities [13] - Prudential Financial offers a 5.1% dividend yield, making it a useful addition for portfolio insurance [14]

Group 1: Auction Market Performance - The auction clearance rates in major Australian cities are showing strong performance, with Sydney at 69% and Melbourne at 70% [1][12][14] - The auction market has reached its highest clearance rate since mid-2024, indicating a potential upward trend in property prices [12][13] - The number of properties auctioned has significantly increased compared to last year, particularly in Melbourne, which may attract more sellers [14][15] Group 2: Housing Market Trends - The housing price index for Australia's five major capital cities rose by 0.5% in May, reflecting steady growth across all major markets [3] - In the May quarter, housing prices increased by 1.2%, with Brisbane leading at 1.6%, followed by Perth (1.4%) and Adelaide (1.3%) [5] - Lower interest rates and rising consumer confidence are expected to sustain the momentum seen in the typically quieter winter months [10][18] Group 3: Economic Factors Influencing Housing - Anticipation of a 0.25% interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia has contributed to significant price increases in May [7][16] - Consumer confidence, which had declined in April, is now on the rise, encouraging larger purchases such as homes [9] - The government's 5% deposit scheme for first-time homebuyers, effective from January 1, 2026, is expected to further boost demand and property prices [18]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market continues to experience narrow fluctuations, with recent adjustments in LPR and deposit rates not significantly impacting market sentiment [1][2] Market Performance - As of May 21, the interbank bond market showed slight fluctuations in yield rates, with the 3-month government bond yield stable at 1.43%, the 2-year yield down 1 basis point to 1.48%, and the 10-year yield up 1 basis point to 1.71% [2] - The recent adjustments in LPR and deposit rates were anticipated and did not lead to significant market changes, as the market had already priced in the current easing measures [2][3] Institutional Perspectives - Some institutions maintain a bullish outlook on the bond market, suggesting that the current environment allows for active bond allocation and potential capital gains through extending duration [5] - The consensus among institutions is that the broad trend of declining interest rates remains intact, although the current sentiment is somewhat weak due to limitations on the downward movement of long-term rates [4][5] Future Expectations - The expectation is that the decline in deposit rates will lead to a decrease in other cash-like rates, which is crucial for managing banks' funding costs and stabilizing the financial system [4] - The market anticipates that as currency constraints ease, there will be continued downward adjustments in short-term rates, which could subsequently lead to declines in medium to long-term bond yields [4] Investment Strategies - The prevailing strategy among investors is to engage in wave trading, with 83% of surveyed investors favoring this approach, while others are considering duration adjustments and selective exposure to equity [6] - Institutions recommend focusing on medium to short-term bonds with positive carry, while also exploring opportunities in municipal private placement bonds and stable ABS valuations [6]

Core Points - The People's Bank of China announced a decrease in the Loan Prime Rate (LPR), with the 1-year LPR at 3% and the 5-year LPR at 3.5%, both down by 10 basis points from the previous month [1] - Major banks collectively lowered deposit rates, with a 5 basis point reduction in demand deposits and a 15 to 25 basis point reduction in fixed-term deposits [1] - The reduction in deposit rates is expected to lower the cost of liabilities for commercial banks, enhancing their willingness to lend [1][2] Group 1: Impact on Real Estate Market - The real estate market showed signs of stabilization, with new residential sales area declining by 2.8% year-on-year from January to April 2025, but the decline rate has narrowed [1][2] - The decrease in LPR is anticipated to lower financing costs for both enterprises and residents, which is crucial for stimulating investment and consumption [1][3] - The current policy environment is expected to support the real estate market, with core cities showing positive performance [2][4] Group 2: Future Policy Directions - The central bank's recent actions, including a reduction in public housing loan rates, are expected to create more room for lowering commercial mortgage rates [3] - The government has shown strong confidence and determination to stabilize the real estate market, with a variety of supportive policies anticipated to be implemented [4][5] - Comprehensive policies aimed at boosting domestic demand and consumption are expected to strengthen the fundamentals of the real estate market [5]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic precious metal futures show mixed performance, while international precious metals are experiencing a decline [1][2] Group 1: Domestic Market Performance - As of May 20, the main contract for Shanghai gold is priced at 754.38 CNY per gram, with an increase of 0.48% [1] - The main contract for Shanghai silver is priced at 8074.00 CNY per kilogram, with a decrease of 0.21% [1] - The opening price for Shanghai gold was 757.00 CNY per gram, reaching a high of 759.56 CNY and a low of 753.12 CNY [2] - The opening price for Shanghai silver was 8125.00 CNY per kilogram, with a high of 8137.00 CNY and a low of 8073.00 CNY [2] Group 2: International Market Performance - COMEX gold is priced at 3213.30 USD per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.58% [1] - COMEX silver is priced at 32.26 USD per ounce, showing a decrease of 0.74% [1] - The opening price for COMEX gold was 3233.00 USD per ounce, with a high of 3235.80 USD and a low of 3207.40 USD [2] - The opening price for COMEX silver was 32.50 USD per ounce, reaching a high of 32.54 USD and a low of 32.24 USD [2] Group 3: Market Influences - The market anticipates a 25 basis point rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia, marking the first cut since February [3] - The RBA is expected to acknowledge that inflation has returned to target levels, but may refrain from indicating a series of rate cuts due to global economic uncertainties [3] - Recent developments include Moody's withdrawal of the last AAA credit rating for the U.S. due to significant fiscal deficits and rising interest costs [4] - The approval of a tax and spending bill by the House Budget Committee is expected to increase the deficit by trillions, raising investor concerns about U.S. debt [4]

Core Viewpoint - ASML's stock experienced a significant decline despite reporting better-than-expected Q1 earnings, primarily due to macroeconomic and geopolitical pressures impacting investor sentiment [1][4]. Financial Performance - ASML reported earnings of 6 euros per share on sales of 7.74 billion euros, exceeding market expectations by 0.20 euros per share, although revenue fell short by approximately 40 million euros [3]. - Year-over-year, sales increased by 46%, and the company maintained its full-year sales guidance between 30 billion euros and 35 billion euros, with a gross margin forecast of 51% to 53% [3]. Market Reactions - The stock price fell by 7% during trading, with a peak decline of 8.6%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite also experienced declines of 2.2% and 3.1%, respectively [1][2]. - The bearish market reaction was influenced by new tariffs on Chinese goods and expanded export restrictions on processors from Nvidia and AMD [5][6]. Macroeconomic Context - The Trump administration announced an increase in tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 245%, contributing to market uncertainty [5]. - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates soon, as the effects of new tariffs on inflation and economic growth need to be assessed [6].