Thanks, Chair Powell. Uh, Kelly O'Grady, CBS News. You're famously known as the guy that makes decision based on data instead of speculation.You've said today in the inflation data is in a good place. We don't know how tariffs are going to impact prices going forward. That's uncertain, but I've got to go back to the last time that you cut rates in December, and there was still the what if of tariffs.So what made you feel comfortable cutting then when inflation was higher than where it is today and you didn' ...

Inflation Trends - Core services inflation, including housing and non-housing, is trending towards levels consistent with 2% inflation [1] - Goods inflation has slightly increased, and further increases are expected over the summer due to tariffs [2] - Tariff effects on consumer prices are beginning to be observed, particularly in categories like personal computers and audiovisual equipment [3] Tariff Impact & Uncertainty - Companies anticipate passing some or all tariff costs to consumers [4] - The magnitude, duration, and timing of tariff effects remain highly uncertain [4] - The industry believes a cautious approach is appropriate while further information on tariff impacts is gathered [4] Monetary Policy & Inflation Expectations - The industry expects inflation to rise and then decline, but this is not guaranteed [5] - A key objective is to prevent a one-time inflation increase from becoming a broader inflation problem [5] - Maintaining anchored inflation expectations is crucial [5]

Monetary Policy Stance - The industry suggests the Fed might have already implemented one rate cut [1] - The industry notes the Fed's previous Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) in March occurred before the April 2nd tariff announcement [1] - The industry observes the Fed's forecasts indicate a slightly more restrictive policy stance than anticipated in March [1] - The industry believes the Fed made the right decision to hold the funds rate steady, awaiting more clarity [1] Economic Outlook - The industry acknowledges the economy's resilience, citing a strong labor market and rebounding growth after a negative first quarter [1] - The industry recognizes uncertainty regarding the size and effects of tariffs, anticipating higher inflation and weaker growth [1] - The industry expects the budget bill working its way through Congress to influence the economic outlook [1] - The industry highlights the importance of minimizing both the risk and cost of policy mistakes, suggesting it's not costly to hold rates steady given the current economic environment [3] Inflation and Unemployment - The industry indicates tariffs are expected to cause higher inflation, at least temporarily, and slightly higher unemployment [1] - The industry points out that the unemployment rate is low [3] - The industry observes that growth in employment is moderating as expected [4]

Krishna Guha and former Fed vice chair Alan Blinder. Also President Trump just speaking about the fed chair, what he'd like to see moments ago. Have a look.>> Reappointed him. I don't know why that is, but I guess maybe he was a Democrat. You know I got great advice from Mnuchin on this one a great advice.But he's done a poor job. So we have no inflation. We have only success.And I'd like to see interest rates get down now. Biden did a lot of very short term debt. So we have short term debt coming due.And b ...

Well, investors watching developments in the Middle East while they await the Fed's decision on interest rates later today. In the meantime, Treasury yields are a little weaker. Tenure right now at 438.And joining us to discuss all of this is Kamal Shri Kumar. He is the president of Shri Kumar Global Strategies. Um Shri, let's talk this through.First, maybe what you think the Fed is going to do and then we can get to what you think they should be doing. You you think that nothing's going to happen today. In ...

Market Indicators - The market economy is inherently boom and bust, even the most capable Federal Reserve chief cannot prevent a severe recession [1] - Monitoring key stock groups can signal an upcoming economic slowdown, especially sectors sensitive to economic changes or those typically affected early in a recession [4] - Housing and automobile sectors are vulnerable when long-term interest rates rise during economic expansion, impacting sales due to increased consumer financing costs [5][6] - Declines in basic building block commodity companies, such as paper stocks, can indicate reduced packaging and global commerce activity [7] - Copper prices are highly sensitive to the global economy and can provide insights into its health, peaking before the Federal Reserve raised interest rates in March 2022 [8] Investment Strategy - Individuals should develop their own understanding of the economy when managing a stock portfolio, favoring index funds for core investments and individual stocks for discretionary investments [2] - Monitoring homebuilders, automakers, paper stocks, and copper prices can provide a better understanding of the economy's temperature [10] - The stock market's performance is linked to the real-world health of the economy, with different sectors gaining or losing favor based on economic conditions [10]

Market & Economic Outlook - Investors are largely focused on economic fundamentals and earnings growth, with a decent economy indicated by a potential 1.8% to 2% growth [3] - Consumer savings rate increased, providing a cushion for future spending despite negative retail sales numbers [4] - Consumers spend based on permanent income, which remains strong with rising average hourly earnings, creating a favorable environment for stock investors [5] Federal Reserve Policy - The Federal Reserve has been consistently late at turning points, potentially due to focusing on backward-looking data [6] - The current Fed funds rate may be too high, negatively impacting consumers and small businesses while benefiting banks [8] - The Fed may be late in cutting rates and is expected to make adjustments in the fall rather than the summer [7] AI and Technology Trends - Companies are increasingly adopting new technologies powered by AI [20] - Old economy companies, like Walmart and LVMH, are pivoting to digital technologies such as AI and robotics [10] - AI is being utilized across various business functions, including marketing, product development, and supply chain management [10] - AI is improving client support with cost savings of over $2 per event and increased consumer satisfaction [11] - Companies like Accenture are benefiting from helping other companies embrace AI, making them a long-cycle budgetary item [13] - The AI spending is still in early stages, with hyperscalers continuing to invest heavily [18][19] Company Specifics - Microsoft paid $13 billion for 49% of future profits from OpenAI, including exclusive rights to compute power and intellectual property [16] - OpenAI is now objecting to the terms of the deal with Microsoft, seeking to become a public benefit corporation and offering Microsoft 33% of the company [17] - Oracle is experiencing a backlog in demand that they cannot meet, indicating supply constraints across hyperscalers [21]

Market Trends & Geopolitical Risks - Investors are closely monitoring Iran and Israel's trading strikes, alongside the Federal Reserve's meeting [1] - Markets appear inclined to shrug off risks related to geopolitical or trade tensions [2] - There's no shortage of a bid from the international community [9][10] Interest Rates & Debt Market - Volatility in rates is a significant concern [2] - US debt level is a frequent topic of discussion on Wall Street [1] - Credit markets have been exceptionally resilient, with both high yield and investment grade retracing losses [3] - Credit market activity is incredibly resilient, potentially leading to a record first half, absent the Covid acceleration of debt [4] Inflation & Economic Growth - Increased inflation is expected to be a focus in the Fed's projections and press release, with a potential downgrade of growth and one rate cut pushed into next year [13] - Tariffs are expected to increase inflation, with businesses potentially passing through about 50% of tariff costs to consumers [17] - The Fed may adopt a more hawkish bias than the market anticipates, potentially pushing one rate cut into next year [20][21] Fed Policy - The Fed is in a position to wait for more data, given strong labor markets and favorable inflation numbers [10] - The Fed aims to temper expectations of a "Fed put," viewing the inflationary impact as a one-off event that will be resolved by the fall of 2026 [19]

Let's just scenario play. Yes, please. What happens if Powell rips in a 100 basis point cut.Right now, I'll tell you. So, one part which is mathematical is the interest on the debt goes down. We save 300 billion.But there's something else that happens which is the Fed does control the front end of the curve. Meaning, how do people borrow money for small amounts of time from one day to about two years. If you make that cheaper, it's a test that's true as time.What happens is people borrow more money. that fu ...

Roger Ferguson. We got to get to him because he finally is can't wait to cut rates. That's a lie.That former for I I I thought I get someone's attention that way. Uh I would not have talked if I known Roger was former Fed vice chair as well as a CNBC contributor. If that ever does uh happen, Roger, you you let us know and and we'll cancel everything else we got going to put you on to say that.That's how surprising it was. So you did not say that. How are you feeling about the Fed's position right now. I thi ...