Group 1 - McDonald's Corp (NYSE:MCD) has not participated in the stock rally, showing a 7% deficit in Q2 while other Dow stocks have double-digit gains for 2025 [1] - The stock is currently testing a historically bullish trendline and is within one standard deviation of its 320-day moving average, having closed above this trendline in eight of the last ten sessions [2] - Historical data indicates that similar signals have led to a 67% chance of MCD's stock rising one month later, with an average gain of 3%, which would place it above its year-to-date breakeven level [3] Group 2 - The 14-day relative strength index (RSI) for MCD is currently at 30, indicating it is in "oversold" territory, which may signal potential rebound opportunities [5] - Options trading for MCD is currently attractive, with a Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 17%, suggesting lower-than-usual volatility expectations among options traders [5]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing trade tariffs have created significant uncertainty for the S&P 500 and the retail sector, particularly affecting companies like Alibaba Group, which faces additional challenges due to tariffs on Chinese imports [1][2]. Group 1: Alibaba's Market Position - Alibaba Group's stock is currently priced at $113.38, with a 52-week range between $71.80 and $148.43, and a price target of $154.21, indicating a potential upside of 36.01% [2][9]. - The company is viewed as a leading blue-chip stock in China, likely to benefit from any rebound in the Chinese stock market before other stocks [4][14]. - Alibaba's diversification into cloud computing and software solutions mitigates its exposure to retail sector challenges posed by trade tariffs [8][12]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Options Activity - There has been a notable increase in call option buying for Alibaba, with approximately 1.4 million call options purchased, significantly above the usual volume of 319,800, indicating strong investor conviction [7]. - The current trading price reflects only 78% of Alibaba's 52-week highs, suggesting a potential for significant upside as market conditions improve [8][9]. Group 3: Analyst Ratings and Forecasts - Analysts have set a new valuation for Alibaba stock at a high of $176 per share, representing a potential rally of up to 53% from its current level [10][11]. - Institutional capital has shown confidence in Alibaba, with $4.7 billion invested recently, signaling strong support from institutional investors [13]. - The overall thesis is that as China's economy rebounds, Alibaba is positioned to attract significant attention and capital, reinforcing its status as a leading investment opportunity [14].

Group 1: Options Trading Insights - The recommended September call option has a leverage ratio of 7.5 and will double on a 13.6% gain in the underlying security [1] - A front-month gamma-weighted Schaeffer's open interest ratio (SOIR) above 1.00 may indicate an immediate pending move [1] - The Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) is in the 19th percentile of its annual range, suggesting options are a preferred trading route [1] Group 2: ONEOK, Inc. Stock Analysis - ONEOK, Inc. (NYSE:OKE) is attempting to establish a low at its 2020 highs, 2024 summer lows, and spring 2025 lows [2] - The shares are maintaining open interest (OI) balance at the 80-strike, with a previous low found at the peak put 75 strike in April [2] Group 3: Options Trading Services - Subscribers to Schaeffer's Weekend Trader received commentary on OKE along with detailed options trade recommendations [3] - OKE options are currently affordably priced, indicating potential for movement [3] - The service aims to provide structured plans with clear entry and exit points for traders [4]

Core Viewpoint - Broadcom Inc (NASDAQ:AVGO) has experienced significant stock movement, recently reaching a market cap of $1 trillion and a record high of $265.43, but faced a 5% drop following a revenue forecast that fell short of estimates [2][4] Group 1: Stock Performance - The stock has shown resilience, poised to add 1.2% this week and remains close to its peak [2] - Historically low implied volatility (IV) has been noted, which has previously indicated bullish trends for the stock [3] - Data indicates that Broadcom stock was higher a month later 75% of the time, averaging a 3% return during that period [4] Group 2: Support Levels - The $250 level is identified as a potential support area, having been significant in previous months [5] - The ascending 20-day moving average has provided a cushion for the stock, remaining unbreached on a closing basis since April [5] Group 3: Options Activity - There has been an increase in put options activity, with a 50-day put/call volume ratio of 0.59, ranking higher than 91% of readings from the past year [7] - Despite calls still outnumbering puts, the high percentile indicates a rising trend in put activity [7] - The Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) for AVGO is high at 84 out of 100, suggesting that the stock has historically exceeded expectations, benefiting options buyers [8]

Core Viewpoint - Crispr Therapeutics Inc's stock rally in June is showing signs of reversal, with shares down 0.6% at $42.69, indicating a potential end to a seven-day winning streak and a historically bearish signal on the charts [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - The stock has approached its 260-day moving average, currently within 0.75 of the trendline's 20-day average true range (ATR), after spending at least 80% of the last 10 days and two months below this average [2]. - Historical data shows that after similar signals in the past three years, CRSP was lower one month later 80% of the time, averaging an 8% loss, which could bring shares below the $40 level [3]. Group 2: Options Activity - There has been significant bullish activity in options for Crispr Therapeutics, with a ratio of 14.50 calls bought for every put in the last two weeks, indicating a higher level of optimism than 99% of readings from the past year [5].

Core Points - GitLab Inc's shares are down 10% to $43.68 following disappointing second quarter and full-year guidance, despite a first-quarter earnings beat [1] - 14 brokerages have reduced their price targets, with JPMorgan Securities cutting the target from $58 to $52, indicating a bearish sentiment [1] - The stock is experiencing its worst single-session drop since April 3, with a year-to-date deficit of 22% and struggling against the overhead 80-day moving average [2] Analyst Sentiment - Of the 26 brokerages covering GitLab, 23 maintain "buy" or better ratings, with no "sells" reported, suggesting a generally positive outlook despite recent declines [2] - A potential shift in analyst sentiment could negatively impact the stock moving forward [2] Options Activity - There is significant options activity, with over 25,000 call and 16,000 put contracts traded, indicating heightened interest and volatility [3] - The most popular options are the weekly 6/13 40-strike put and the 45-strike call, reflecting traders' strategies in response to the stock's performance [3] Volatility Assessment - GitLab's Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) is 87 out of 100, indicating that the stock has historically exceeded options traders' volatility expectations over the past year [4]

Core Insights - Chewy Inc reported a first-quarter earnings miss despite beating revenue expectations, leading to a lackluster full-year outlook [1] - The stock is experiencing its third consecutive loss and its worst day since August 2023, trading down 11.3% to $40.63 [1][2] - Short interest in the stock has increased by 17.7% over the last two reporting periods, with 14.80 million shares sold short, representing 7.8% of the available float [2] Stock Performance - The stock is pulling back from a two-year high of $48.62 reached on June 6, 2023, but may find support at the 40-day moving average [2] - Despite recent losses, the stock still has a 21% lead for 2025 [2] Options Market Activity - Options traders are leaning bearish, as indicated by a 10-day put/call volume ratio of 1.50, ranking in the 98th percentile of annual readings [3] - Options volume is significantly higher than average, with 13,000 calls and 19,000 puts traded, indicating increased trading activity [4] - The most popular options contracts include the weekly 6/13 40-strike put and the 47-strike put, with new positions being opened at the latter [4]

Group 1 - The core focus of Quad 7 Capital is to provide investment opportunities through their BAD BEAT Investing platform, emphasizing both long and short trades [1] - The team consists of 7 analysts with diverse expertise in business, policy, economics, mathematics, game theory, and sciences, aiming to educate investors on proficient trading [1] - Since May 2020, the company has maintained an average position of 95% long and 5% short, showcasing their strategic approach to market conditions [1] Group 2 - BAD BEAT Investing offers various benefits, including weekly well-researched trade ideas, access to multiple chat rooms, and daily summaries of key analyst upgrades and downgrades [2] - The platform also provides education on basic options trading and extensive trading tools to enhance investor knowledge and skills [2]

Company Overview - Elanco Animal Health Incorporated (ELAN) is currently experiencing significant activity in the options market, particularly with the Jan 16, 2026 $3.00 Call option showing high implied volatility, indicating potential for a major price movement [1] Market Sentiment - The high implied volatility suggests that investors are anticipating a significant price change for Elanco Animal Health shares, which could be driven by an upcoming event [2][4] - Analysts have a mixed outlook on Elanco, with the company holding a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) in the Medical - Outpatient and Home Healthcare industry, which is in the top 26% of the Zacks Industry Rank [3] Earnings Estimates - Over the past 60 days, there have been no increases in earnings estimates for the current quarter, while six analysts have lowered their estimates, resulting in a decrease of the Zacks Consensus Estimate from earnings of 25 cents per share to 20 cents [3]

Core Insights - Lululemon Athletica Inc's stock has dropped 19.7% to $265.71 due to fiscal second-quarter and full-year guidance that missed expectations, primarily attributed to tariff pressures [1] - The stock is experiencing its worst day since March 2020, reaching its lowest level since April and breaking below the $310 support level [2] - Year-to-date, Lululemon has lost 30% of its value, with short interest accounting for 5.4% of the equity's available float [2] Price Target Adjustments - At least 12 brokerages have reduced their price targets for Lululemon, with BMO making the most significant cut from $302 to $250 [1] Options Activity - Today's options activity shows 46,000 calls and 26,000 puts traded, which is 24 times the typical volume [3] - The most popular option is the weekly 6/6 260-strike put, with positions being opened ahead of expiration [3] Sentiment Indicators - Lululemon's put/call open interest ratio (SOIR) stands at 1.31, placing it in the 97th percentile of annual readings, indicating heightened pessimism among short-term options traders [4] - The company has historically exceeded options traders' volatility expectations, reflected in a Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) of 96 out of 100 [4]