Japan economic perspective Global Markets Research EQUITY: JAPAN STRATEGY BOJ October 2025 MPM and Japanese equity macro perspective Initial momentum in spring negotiations is key focus now We view October MPM outcome as dovish postponement of rate hike The Bank of Japan (BOJ) decided to leave its policy rate unchanged at its Monetary Policy Meeting (MPM) held over 29–30 October (see our 30 October 2025 report BOJ Watch ). This decision was in line with what both we and the markets had expected. However, we ...

Core Insights - Inflation rates have decreased unexpectedly following the implementation of President Trump's significant tariffs [1] Group 1 - The reduction in inflation suggests that the economic impact of the tariffs may not be as severe as initially anticipated [1] - Analysts are observing the potential long-term effects of these tariffs on various sectors of the economy [1] - The unexpected inflation drop could influence future monetary policy decisions [1]

Market Positioning - OKX positions itself as "The New Money App" designed to combat inflation [1] Value Proposition - OKX aims to help users' money "outrun inflation" [1] Call to Action - The report encourages users to explore OKX [1]

Market Overview - The ASX is expected to open lower, with a projected decline of -0.4% due to rising inflation and a likely hold by the RBA on interest rates [3] - Recent inflation data indicates a significant core rise of over +1% through to September, contributing to market uncertainty [2][3] Company News - Westpac (ASX:WBC) reported a slight annual net profit decrease of 1%, totaling $6.92 billion, and is divesting its RAMS mortgage portfolio [4] - Coal magnate Matt Latimore is engaging with BlueScope Steel (ASX:BSL) and other international buyers regarding the acquisition of Whyalla, a major structural steel producer in Australia [5] - Mandrake Resources (ASX:MAN) secured an offtake agreement with Nasdaq-listed Stardust Power for its U.S. lithium refining operations [5] - Retailer Carma Limited is set to list on the stock exchange this Wednesday [5] Commodities and Forex - The Australian dollar is trading at 65.4 U.S. cents [6] - Iron Ore prices remain stable at $106.50 per tonne in Singapore [6] - Brent Crude oil has increased by +0.6% to $64.77 per barrel [6] - Gold prices have remained flat at $4,011 per ounce [6] - U.S. natural gas futures have risen by +4.2% to $4.12 per gigajoule [6]

Economic Overview - The overall US economy remains solid, but certain sectors, particularly housing, may already be in recession due to high interest rates [1][3] - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent highlighted that low-end consumers are the hardest hit by the housing recession, as they typically have debts rather than assets [3] Housing Market - Pending home sales in the US were flat in September, indicating stagnation in the real estate market [3][7] - High mortgage rates continue to hinder the real estate market, contributing to the recession in housing [1] Federal Reserve Policy - Bessent called for the Federal Reserve to accelerate rate cuts, suggesting that current policies have caused distributional problems [1] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the central bank may not cut rates further at its December meeting, which has drawn criticism from Bessent and other officials [4] - Fed Governor Stephen Miran warned that maintaining tight monetary policy for an extended period could induce a recession [5][8] Inflation and Government Spending - Bessent noted that cuts in government spending have reduced the deficit-to-GDP ratio from 6.4% to 5.9%, which should help lower inflation [8] - There is a belief that if spending contracts, inflation should decrease, which would warrant further rate cuts by the Fed [9]

Americans are growing increasingly uncertain of their retirement plans amid persistent inflation and mounting concerns about the future of Social Security. https://t.co/3y5hmUP2a2 ...

Economic Impact - Rising energy costs are coinciding with increasing food prices and overall inflation, creating financial strain for many Americans [1] Consumer Sentiment - High utility bills combined with inflation are causing frustration among American consumers [1]

Core Viewpoint - Sweetgreen has faced significant challenges in 2023, with its stock down 77% amid broader market growth, particularly in AI stocks [1] Company Performance - Comparable sales for Sweetgreen have turned negative in the first half of 2023, impacted by wildfires in Los Angeles, a downturn in restaurant spending, and a transition in its loyalty program [2] - The company remains unprofitable, with second-quarter same-store sales falling 7.6%, compared to a 9.3% growth in the same quarter the previous year, and revenue increased only 0.5% to $185.6 million [3] - For the full year, Sweetgreen anticipates same-store sales to decline by 4% to 6% and adjusted EBITDA to be between $10 million and $15 million [4] Industry Context - The fast-casual sector is experiencing slower sales across the board, with other companies like Chipotle and Cava Group also reporting declines [5] - Inflation and a weak job market are leading consumers to reduce discretionary spending, including dining out [6] Loyalty Program Changes - Sweetgreen's switch from a tiered loyalty program to a points-based system has resulted in a 250-basis-point revenue headwind from high-frequency users of the old program, although early signs from the new program are described as "encouraging" [7] Pricing and Cost Control - The company faces pressure to lower prices and better manage costs due to frequent complaints about high price points [8] Market Position and Future Outlook - Sweetgreen's market cap has fallen to under $1 billion, with a price-to-sales ratio of 1.4, suggesting potential for significant returns if the company can achieve its growth targets [9][10] - The company aims to reach 1,000 restaurants by 2032, but must first return to same-store sales growth and improve profitability [10] - Upcoming third-quarter earnings report on November 6 could indicate signs of recovery, with easier comparisons in the second half of the year [11]

ANALYSTS expect inflation to have edged up last month due to higher food and electricity costs and a weaker peso. The median forecast in a Manila Times poll was 1.8 percent, a slight increase from the September result of 1.7 percent and within the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas’ (BSP) 1.4- to 2.2-percent estimate for the month.If realized, inflation will have fallen below the central bank’s 2.0- to 4.0-percent goal for an eighth straight month. Data for October will be released by the Philippine Statistics Aut ...

Central Banks and Interest Rates - Central banks in Australia, Sweden, and Brazil are expected to maintain current interest rates, while Mexico may implement a rate cut [1] - The Bank of England (BOE) is likely to hold rates at 4% due to inflation being nearly double its 2% target, with a potential cut not expected until a clear downtrend in inflation is observed, likely by April [2][4] - The BOE's decision to pause rate cuts would end a pattern of reducing rates at every other meeting since August 2024, contrasting with the US Federal Reserve's recent policy loosening [3][5] Economic Data and Forecasts - Recent softer-than-expected economic data has increased uncertainty regarding the BOE's upcoming meeting, with a hold being more likely than a cut [2] - The US Federal Reserve is cautious about further cuts, with upcoming speeches from Fed officials expected to provide insights into the economy and job market amid delayed official data releases due to a government shutdown [6][7] - Private-sector reports are anticipated to show modest increases in employment, with ADP Research projecting a rise in October private employment after previous declines [8] Regional Economic Insights - In Canada, Prime Minister Mark Carney's upcoming budget is expected to cut operating spending while investing in capital projects, with a projected deficit of at least C$70 billion ($50 billion) [10] - Economists predict continued softness in Canadian job data, following a net loss of 45,900 positions in the third quarter [11] - In Asia, factory activity releases will provide insights into the region's manufacturing amid global trade strains, with key data from China, India, South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan being closely monitored [12] Central Bank Meetings and Decisions - Sweden's Riksbank is expected to keep its rate at a three-year low of 1.75%, while the European Central Bank and other regional banks are also anticipated to maintain current rates [18][20] - The Turkish central bank faces challenges with inflation remaining above 2% in October, while Madagascar may lower its key interest rate as inflation slows [23][24] - In Latin America, Brazil's central bank is expected to hold rates at 15%, while Mexico's Banxico is likely to implement a rate cut to 7.25% amid improving inflation conditions [25][29]