Core Insights - The GDP of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) member states reached $588.1 billion by the end of Q1 2025, reflecting a 3% increase from $570.9 billion in the same period of 2024 [2] Economic Composition - The non-oil sector accounted for 73.2% of the nominal GDP of GCC member states, while the oil sector represented 26.8% as of the end of Q1 2025 [2] - In real terms, the GDP growth for GCC member states was 0.1% at fixed prices, totaling $587.8 billion by the end of Q1 2025 [2]

Core Points - The White House Economic Council warns that a prolonged government shutdown could lead to severe economic consequences, estimating a loss of $15 billion in GDP for each week of shutdown [1][2] - If the shutdown lasts for a month, an additional 43,000 people could lose their jobs, not accounting for the 1.9 million federal employees who are either furloughed or working without pay [1] - Consumer spending is projected to decrease by $30 billion over a month of shutdown, with half of this impact directly affecting federal employees and the other half stemming from spillover effects on other industries [1] Economic Impact - Each week of government shutdown could result in a GDP loss of $15 billion [1] - A month-long shutdown could lead to a total job loss of 43,000, in addition to the 1.9 million federal employees affected [1] - Consumer spending could decline by $30 billion over a month, with significant implications for various sectors [1] Legislative Context - The government shutdown occurred due to a failure in the Senate to pass a temporary funding bill, primarily due to disagreements over healthcare-related benefits [1] - The shutdown began at midnight on October 1, marking the first such event in nearly seven years [1]

Core Points - The U.S. economy experienced an acceleration in the second quarter, with a reported annualized GDP growth rate of 3.8% from April to June [1][2] - This growth rate exceeded economists' expectations of 3.3% and was higher than the initial estimate of 3% by the Commerce Department [2] - The increase in GDP was primarily driven by a decrease in imports and an increase in consumer spending, although these were partially offset by declines in investment and exports [2] Economic Context - The second quarter growth follows a downward revision of GDP contraction in the first quarter, which was adjusted from -0.5% to -0.6%, resulting in an annualized GDP growth rate of approximately 1.6% for the first half of 2025 [3]

责编：张荣耀、卢思宇 日本内阁府9月8日公布的修正数据显示，剔除物价变动影响后，今年第二季度（4月至6月）实际国内生 产总值（GDP）环比增长0.5%，按年率计算增幅为2.2%。（总台记者 何欣蕾 总台报道员 杨红霞） ...

Economic Overview - Brazil's GDP grew by 0.4% in Q2 2025, marking the 16th consecutive quarter of positive growth and the highest level since the series began in 1996, with a total economic output of 3.2 trillion reais [1] - The growth rate in Q2 was lower than the 1.3% recorded in Q1, indicating a moderate slowdown, but still exceeded market expectations of 0.3%. Year-on-year, the economy grew by 2.2% [1] Sector Performance - The services sector grew by 0.6%, reaching a historical high and serving as the main driver of overall economic growth, particularly in financial services, information and communication, and transportation and storage [1] - The industrial sector saw a 0.5% increase, primarily driven by mining, especially in oil and gas extraction, although manufacturing, electricity, and construction experienced slight declines [1] - Agriculture experienced a minor decline of 0.1% quarter-on-quarter but showed a significant year-on-year growth of 10.1%, benefiting from strong soybean and corn harvests earlier in the year [1] Demand Side Analysis - Government consumption decreased by 0.6%, while household consumption increased by 0.5%. Investment fell by 2.2%, mainly due to weaknesses in construction and capital goods production [1] - On the external front, exports grew by 0.7%, while imports declined by 2.9% [1] Industry Insights - The manufacturing and construction sectors, closely tied to credit, are under significant pressure, while the resilience of the services sector and household consumption plays a crucial supporting role [2]

Core Viewpoint - Australia's GDP for Q2 2025 increased by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter and 1.8% year-on-year, indicating a rebound from Q1's growth slowdown due to extreme weather [1][1][1] Economic Growth - The Q2 GDP growth of 0.6% is an improvement from Q1's 0.3% and exceeds market expectations [1][1] - Household and government spending were the main drivers of economic growth in Q2, with increases of 0.9% and 1.0% respectively [1][1] - Public investment saw a decline of 3.9% quarter-on-quarter [1] Consumer Behavior - Following interest rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of Australia in February and May, household spending on non-essential items increased [1][1] - The household savings rate decreased from 5.2% in Q1 to 4.2% in Q2, suggesting a recovery in consumer spending after a period of weakness [1][1] Government Perspective - The Australian Treasurer highlighted the positive economic momentum in the face of global economic uncertainties, as indicated by the latest data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics [1][1]

Core Insights - Australia's GDP grew by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter and 1.8% year-on-year in Q2 2025, marking the 15th consecutive quarter of growth, surpassing market expectations and previous quarters' performance [1] - The main drivers of economic growth were domestic final demand, primarily fueled by increases in household and government spending, while public investment was a significant drag on growth [1] - The economic growth forecast for the fiscal year 2024-25 is set at 1.3% [1] Economic Performance - Government spending increased by 1% and household consumption rose by 0.9% in Q2 2025 [1] - Private sector investment saw minimal growth of 0.1% due to a decline in residential investment and new construction projects, while public sector investment decreased by 3.9% [1] Trade and Exports - Overall goods exports increased due to a rebound in iron ore and liquefied natural gas exports, alongside growth in service exports driven by an increase in short-term visitors to Australia [2] - However, the increase in Australians traveling abroad and higher spending per traveler negatively impacted net trade, while a reduction in imports of consumer goods like automobiles and clothing also affected overall goods imports [2] Household Financials - The household savings rate fell from 5.2% in Q1 to 4.2% in Q2 2025, with disposable income rising by 0.6%, which was lower than the 1.5% increase in nominal household spending [2]

Core Viewpoint - The GBP/USD is facing downward pressure, hovering around the 1.3470 area, amid a mild recovery in dollar buying interest, with the July PCE inflation data aligning with market expectations, opening the door for a potential Fed rate cut in September [1][5]. Technical Analysis - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the 4-hour chart is slightly below 50, indicating a weakening bullish momentum as GBP/USD falls below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently at 1.3490 [3]. - Key support levels are identified at 1.3460-1.3440 (50% Fibonacci retracement, 100-day and 200-day moving averages) and 1.3400-1.3390 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) [3]. - Resistance levels are seen at 1.3490-1.3500 (100-day moving average, static level), 1.3540 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement), and 1.3600 (static level, round number) [3]. Economic Overview - The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) revised the Q2 GDP annualized growth rate to 3.3%, lower than the initial estimate of 3% and market expectations of 3.1% [5]. - Initial jobless claims decreased from 234,000 to 229,000, slightly better than the market expectation of 230,000 [5]. - The upcoming PCE price index data for July is anticipated to show an overall annual inflation rate stabilizing at 2.6%, with core PCE expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month [5].

Group 1 - The yield on U.S. Treasury bonds showed a divergence on August 28, with long-term yields declining and short-term yields rising, resulting in a narrowing of the yield curve. The 10-year Treasury yield fell over 2 basis points to 4.21%, while the 2-year yield rose nearly 3 basis points to 3.64%, leading to a 5 basis point reduction in the spread between the two to 57 basis points [1] - The U.S. Department of Commerce revised the annual growth rate of real GDP for Q2 2025 to 3.3%, an upward adjustment of 0.3 percentage points from initial estimates. In Q1, the real GDP decreased by 0.5% [1] - The growth in Q2 real GDP was primarily driven by a reduction in imports and an increase in consumer spending, although declines in investment and exports partially offset these gains [1] Group 2 - The actual final sales to domestic purchasers, which includes consumer spending and private fixed investment, increased by 1.9% in Q2, revised up by 0.7 percentage points from initial estimates [1] - The domestic purchasing power parity index rose by 1.8%, revised down by 0.1 percentage points from initial estimates, while the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index increased by 2.0%, also revised down by 0.1 percentage points [1] - Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index rose by 2.5%, consistent with previous expectations [1]

Economic Growth - The U.S. economy expanded at a faster pace than initially estimated in the second quarter, with a real GDP growth rate of 3.3% annualized, up from the preliminary estimate of 3% [1] - Net exports contributed nearly 5 percentage points to GDP, marking a historical high, contrasting with the previous quarter when net exports had a negative impact on GDP [1] Corporate Investment and GDI - The Gross Domestic Income (GDI) surged by 4.8% in the second quarter after a 0.2% increase in the first quarter, indicating a strong rebound in economic activity [1] - Corporate profits, which are included in GDI data, increased by 1.7% in the second quarter following the largest decline since 2020 in the first quarter [2] Labor Market - Initial claims for unemployment benefits decreased by 5,000 to 229,000, indicating that employers are retaining existing employees despite economic uncertainties [2] - The labor market remains resilient, with a focus on upcoming employment data from the ISM Purchasing Managers Index, ADP private employment data, and the U.S. non-farm payroll report [2] Federal Reserve Outlook - Signs of a cooling labor market have become a focal point for Federal Reserve officials, with expectations that the Fed may lower interest rates in the upcoming policy meeting [3]