证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·煤炭开采 煤炭开采行业跟踪周报 港口库存回落，煤价震荡运行 2025 年 04 月 27 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 行业近况 本周（4 月 21 日至 4 月 25 日）港口动力煤现货价环比下跌，报收 655 元/吨。 供给端，本周环渤海四港区日均调入量188.63万吨，环比上周增加12.51 万吨，增幅 7.11%。矿山产地煤矿正常供应，港口供给略有回升。 需求端，本周环渤海四港区日均调出量201.24万吨，环比上周增加53.26 万吨，增幅 35.99%；日均锚地船舶共 83 艘，环比上周减少 4 艘，降幅 4.58%。库存端，环渤海四港区库存端 3109.9 万吨，环比上周减少 84.9 万吨，降幅 2.66%。港口本周日均调出量环比上涨，受五一节前补库影 响为主。库存端略有下降，同比仍处高位，叠加下游需求淡季影响，煤 价震荡运行。 我们分析认为：煤炭价格目前主要受库存高位影响、需求刚需为主以及 汛期水电稳增影响导致上涨动能有限，但伴随五一节后将逐步进入迎 峰度夏旺季期，煤价或有进一步上行可能。 估值与建议： 仍旧关注保险资金增 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The current coal prices are primarily influenced by the seasonal decline in demand and the stable increase in hydropower during the flood season, limiting upward momentum [1] - Short-term demand remains reliant on long-term contracts and essential purchases by power plants, while non-electric enterprises show weak demand due to warmer weather and high inventory levels, making significant price increases unlikely in the short term [1][2] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - During the week of April 14 to April 18, the spot price of thermal coal at ports decreased by 27 yuan/ton, closing at 663 yuan/ton [1] - The average daily inflow of coal to the four ports in the Bohai Rim was 1.7611 million tons, a decrease of 75,300 tons week-on-week, down 4.10% [1] - The average daily outflow from the same ports was 1.4799 million tons, a decrease of 371,000 tons week-on-week, down 20.04% [1] - The inventory at the Bohai Rim ports increased to 31.948 million tons, up 2.07 million tons week-on-week, an increase of 6.93% [1] Price Trends - The price of thermal coal at the production site showed a slight decline, with the price for 5500 kcal thermal coal in Datong at 555 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan/ton [18] - The price for 6000 kcal thermal block coal in Yanzhou decreased by 90 yuan/ton, closing at 800 yuan/ton [18] - The Bohai Rim thermal coal price index remained stable at 678 yuan/ton [21] Market Dynamics - The report highlights a continued focus on the influx of insurance capital, with premium income maintaining positive growth concentrated towards leading insurance companies [2][37] - The report recommends focusing on elastic stocks in thermal coal, particularly those with low valuations such as Guanghui Energy and Haohua Energy [2][37] Shipping and Logistics - Domestic shipping costs increased by 2.45 yuan/ton, closing at 37.45 yuan/ton, a rise of 6.95% [35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The current coal prices are primarily affected by weaker-than-expected demand and high inventory levels, limiting upward momentum. Short-term demand is expected to rely on long-term contracts and essential purchases from power plants, while non-electric enterprises show weak demand as temperatures warm in March. Therefore, significant increases in coal prices are unlikely in the short term [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the incremental insurance funds and suggests a preference for resource stocks due to ongoing fixed-income asset shortages and high dividend asset levels [2] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - During the week from February 24 to February 28, the spot price of thermal coal at ports decreased to 690 CNY/ton, reflecting a downward trend [1] - Daily average coal inflow to the four ports in the Bohai Rim region was 1.7946 million tons, a slight increase of 0.0043 million tons (0.24%) from the previous week. Meanwhile, daily average coal outflow increased to 1.8576 million tons, up by 0.2671 million tons (16.80%) [1][24] - The inventory level at the ports was 29.275 million tons, down by 0.41 million tons (1.37%) from the previous week, indicating a marginal reduction in inventory despite still being at a high absolute level [1][29] Price Trends - As of February 28, the price of thermal coal at major production areas showed a mixed trend, with Dazhou South District 5500 kcal thermal coal price decreasing by 18 CNY/ton to 552 CNY/ton, while Inner Mongolia's 4000 kcal thermal coal price remained stable at 380 CNY/ton [13] - The Bohai Rim thermal coal price index fell by 2 CNY/ton to 694 CNY/ton, while the Qinhuangdao port price for 5500 kcal thermal coal decreased by 29 CNY/ton to 690 CNY/ton [15] Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on elastic stocks in the thermal coal sector, particularly those with low valuations such as Guanghui Energy and Haohua Energy [2][32]