（来源：合富永道） 平安养老受托资管部总经理罗庆忠：2026年权益配置聚焦三条主线 在2016年1月23日济安金信及华泰证券在北京共同举办的中国资管群星汇颁奖典礼暨私募基金高质量发展论坛上， 2025年度理财公司、商业银行、养老金 产品及管理人"群星汇"多项大奖榜单隆重发布。本次颁奖盛典在予以表彰优秀资管管理人的同时，全新增设私募基金评选赛道。出席本次盛典的有100多 家银行理财、商业银行、养老金管理人等资管机构，100多家私募基金，10多家证券公司高管和10多家主流媒体领袖。本次论坛最精彩的环节之一是2026 资产配置畅谈圆桌论坛环节， 华泰证券研究所所长张继强作为主持嘉宾，华夏理财副总裁贾志敏、宁银理财副总经理王俊、青银理财总裁助理姚庆、宁 波鄞州农商行副行长沈华、平安养老受托资管部总经理罗庆忠进行了精彩对话。 2026资产配置畅谈 圆桌论坛 嘉宾： 华泰证券研究所所长张继强 华夏理财副总裁 贾志敏 宁银理财副总经理 王俊 青银理财总裁助理 姚庆 宁波鄞州农商行副行长 沈华 第一，"924"行情以来的情况。"924"以来应该讲是国家对股票市场重新定位，它从以前的融资变成了投资跟融资并重。这点如果得到市场不 ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·煤炭开采 煤炭开采行业跟踪周报 供给年前略有收缩，港口煤价小幅上涨 2026 年 02 月 01 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 行业近况 本周（1 月 26 日至 1 月 30 日）港口动力煤现货价环比上涨 7 元/吨，报 收 692 元/吨。 供给端，本周环渤海四港区日均调入量 155.18 万吨，环比上周减少 2.52 万吨，降幅 1.60%；本周产地供应来看，山西较为稳定，陕西、内蒙略 有减少，港口供应量有所降低。 需求端，本周环渤海四港区日均调出量189.33万吨，环比上周增加15.35 万吨，涨幅 8.82%；日均锚地船舶共 100.50 艘，环比增幅 21%；环渤海 四港区库存端 2468.60 万吨，环比上周减少 160 万吨，降幅 6.10% 。本 周港口调出量增加，库存显著降低，带动煤价上涨。 我们分析认为：本周港口煤价受到供给略有收缩叠加节前刚需补库影 响略有上涨，但港口库存仍处于较高位置，电厂日耗仍以刚需为主，且 工业用电临近过年有所走弱，叠加新能源水电风电挤压火电份额，预计 煤价维持震荡走势。 估值与建议： 仍旧关 ...

Summary of China Property & Casualty Insurance Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: China Property & Casualty Insurance (中国财险) - **Focus**: Insurance industry, particularly property and casualty insurance Key Points Financial Performance and Investment Strategy - The overall bond investment yield for China Property & Casualty Insurance remains positive, with a high proportion of AC class assets. The target duration for bonds is set between 5 to 7 years, which is longer than typical property insurance companies. This duration is adjusted based on market conditions rather than strict liability matching. The rise in interest rates is not expected to have a significant negative impact on net assets [2][3][6] - The company plans to allocate 30% of new premiums to A-shares, executed through entrusted asset management. This allocation is based on operational cash flow rather than direct premium extraction, and while the policy is strictly enforced, the assessment method remains unclear [2][7] - The expected net profit for 2026 is approximately 43 billion yuan, with a projected dividend per share of about 0.67 yuan. However, uncertainties exist due to delays in non-auto insurance integration and potential large-scale disasters [4][23] Market Trends and Projections - The automotive market is anticipated to grow in 2026 due to the continuation of subsidy policies, with new car sales expected to have development potential. The company aims to expand its new car market and improve renewal rates [2][12] - The average premium for electric vehicles is expected to remain stable, although the proportion of new and used cars will influence this trend. The overall average premium for car insurance is projected to stay steady in 2026 [13] - The industry expense ratio decreased in 2025, with a stable loss ratio. There is still room for further reduction in the expense ratio in 2026, although the extent of decrease may not be as significant as in previous years [14] Regulatory Environment and Strategic Adjustments - The company faces less stringent constraints on asset allocation compared to life insurance companies, allowing for greater flexibility in investment strategies. However, the equity cap is approaching, which may impact future investment strategies [8][9] - The regulatory environment is supportive of the insurance sector's profitability, with no indications of adjustments to fees or rates that would lower profitability. Instead, there is encouragement for innovation in claims and customer service [16][17] Non-Auto Insurance Development - The company is actively expanding its non-auto insurance business, having established a dedicated team to comply with regulatory requirements and improve product offerings. The transition to a new model for non-auto insurance is underway, with no significant impact on customer demand observed so far [18][19] - The re-registration of corporate property insurance is being standardized across the industry, which is expected to enhance market competitiveness and operational efficiency [20] Communication and Investor Relations - The company emphasizes the importance of communication with investors to understand market demands and align strategies for performance growth. Despite recent stock performance being relatively weak compared to life insurance stocks, the company’s solid business model remains a point of interest for long-term investors [24][25][26] Conclusion - China Property & Casualty Insurance is positioned to navigate market challenges and regulatory changes while focusing on growth in both auto and non-auto insurance sectors. The company aims to maintain profitability and enhance investor relations through transparent communication and strategic planning.

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The current supply-demand situation in the coal mining industry is weak, leading to a decline in port coal prices. The average daily coal inflow to the four ports in the Bohai Rim increased by 12.73 thousand tons week-on-week, while the average daily outflow also rose by 9.45 thousand tons. However, the overall inventory at the ports increased by 33.50 million tons, indicating a high inventory level and weak demand, which is expected to keep coal prices fluctuating [1][28][32] - The report suggests that the short-term high temperatures across the country will not boost residential heating demand, and the daily consumption of power plants is declining. Additionally, the share of thermal power is being squeezed by renewable energy sources, leading to an expectation of a stable coal price trend [1][19] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4,101.91 points, down 1.52% week-on-week. The coal sector index closed at 2,833.39 points, down 2.7% [10] 2. Domestic Coal Prices - The price of thermal coal at the production site has shown a slight decline, with the price in Datong down by 49 yuan/ton, while prices in Inner Mongolia remained stable [16] 3. Inventory Levels - The average daily coal inflow to the Bohai Rim ports was 166.90 million tons, and the outflow was 171.40 million tons, indicating increased activity but also higher inventory levels [28][32] 4. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on elastic coal stocks, particularly Haohua Energy and Guanghui Energy, which are considered undervalued [2][37]

保险股接下来怎么看？20260112 摘要 从负债端来看，2025 年底至 2026 年初的数据表明，预收预录数据质量较好， 大部分转化为实收。银行存款利率下降导致居民资金流向保险产品，这使得传 统险与分红险具有吸引力。预计 2026 年全年保费增速将呈现前高后低态势， 上半年尤其是一季度增速较高，而三季度可能面临一定压力。 从资产端来看， 利率上行趋势对保险公司固收类投资有利，可以缓解利差损风险。目前十年国 债收益率已上升至 1.9%左右，相比去年增加了 30 个 BP。此外，权益类资产 占比约 15.5%，若股票市场持续走强，将进一步提升保险公司收益。 保险股估值仍处低位，中国太保和中国平安 2026 年 P/EV 分别约为 0.7 倍和 0.8 倍，内涵价值快速增长，建议投资者继续持有或适度加仓，但 需关注市场波动。 中国人寿 A 股估值高于中国太保和平安，因其内涵价值增长较快，但更 推荐港股中国人寿，因其相对于 A 股有明显折价。 2025 年底至 2026 年初预收预录数据质量较好，银行存款利率下降导 致资金流向保险产品，预计 2026 年全年保费增速前高后低，一季度增 速较高，三季度或有压力。 利 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Add" [1] Core Insights - The report indicates that the port thermal coal spot price has decreased by 31 CNY/ton week-on-week, closing at 672 CNY/ton. The average daily inflow to the four ports in the Bohai Rim region is 1.6071 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons or 1.83% from the previous week. Meanwhile, the average daily outflow has increased by 64,600 tons or 4.22% to 1.5963 million tons. The inventory at the ports has risen to 29.872 million tons, an increase of 220,000 tons or 0.74% from the previous week. The overall inventory trend is upward, with limited demand release leading to a decline in coal prices [1][2][27][32]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,963.68 points, up 46 points or 1.18% week-on-week. The coal sector index closed at 2,772.29 points, down 29 points or 1.03% with a trading volume of 37.2 billion CNY, a decrease of 5.6 billion CNY or 13% from the previous week [10]. 2. Domestic Coal Prices - As of December 26, the price of 5500 kcal thermal coal in Datong remained stable at 550 CNY/ton, while the price in Inner Mongolia was stable at 430 CNY/ton. The price of 6000 kcal thermal block coal in Yanzhou increased by 130 CNY/ton to 1,110 CNY/ton. The port thermal coal price has decreased by 31 CNY/ton to 672 CNY/ton [16][19]. 3. Inventory and Shipping - The average daily inflow to the Bohai Rim ports has decreased, while the outflow has increased. The average daily outflow is 1.5963 million tons, up 4.22%, and the average daily inflow is 1.6071 million tons, down 1.83%. The total inventory at the ports has increased to 29.872 million tons, up 0.74% [27][32]. 4. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on insurance capital inflows and maintaining positive growth in premium income, with a preference for resource stocks. It recommends specific thermal coal stocks such as Haohua Energy and Guanghui Energy due to their low valuations and elastic performance [2][37].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [1] Core Views - The current high inventory levels at ports and the early release of downstream heating demand are contributing to a weak demand environment, leading to a downward trend in coal prices. The report anticipates that coal prices will maintain a fluctuating trend due to high temperatures across the country and competition from renewable energy sources [1][2] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the incremental insurance funds and suggests a focus on resource stocks, particularly recommending elastic coal stocks such as Haohua Energy and Guanghui Energy [2][37] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - During the week of December 15 to December 19, the spot price of thermal coal at ports decreased by 42 CNY/ton, closing at 703 CNY/ton. The average daily inflow to the four ports in the Bohai Rim was 1.6371 million tons, a decrease of 200,000 tons week-on-week, representing a decline of 10.95% [1] - The average daily outflow from the four ports was 1.5317 million tons, down by 100,000 tons week-on-week, a decrease of 6.19%. The total inventory at the ports increased to 29.652 million tons, up by 500,000 tons, an increase of 1.7% [1][32] Price Trends - As of December 19, the price of 5500 kcal thermal coal at Datong South Suburb decreased by 60 CNY/ton, closing at 560 CNY/ton. The price of 4000 kcal thermal coal in Inner Mongolia remained stable at 430 CNY/ton, while the price of 6000 kcal thermal coal in Yanzhou remained unchanged at 980 CNY/ton [16] - The Bohai Rim thermal coal price index fell by 4 CNY/ton, closing at 699 CNY/ton, while the Qinhuangdao port price index for 5500 kcal thermal coal decreased by 7 CNY/ton, closing at 702 CNY/ton [19] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report notes a decrease in both the inflow and outflow of coal at the Bohai Rim ports, indicating a weak demand environment. The number of anchored vessels in the area decreased by 16% to 63 vessels [27][32] - The report highlights that the current high inventory levels and limited demand release are contributing to the downward pressure on coal prices [1][2] Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on elastic coal stocks, particularly Haohua Energy and Guanghui Energy, which are considered undervalued [2][37]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The coal mining industry is experiencing weak supply and demand, leading to a downward trend in coal prices. The current port coal price is at 785 RMB/ton, down 31 RMB/ton from the previous week. The average daily coal inflow to the four ports in the Bohai Rim is 1.95 million tons, a decrease of 105,100 tons or 5.11% week-on-week. The average daily coal outflow is 1.73 million tons, down 260,000 tons or 13.05% week-on-week. The inventory at the ports has increased by 1 million tons to 27.614 million tons, an increase of 3.77% [1][2][31] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,902.81 points, down 0.29% week-on-week. The coal sector index closed at 2,887.25 points, up 0.37% week-on-week, with a trading volume of 55.814 billion RMB, an increase of 25.76% [10] 2. Coal Prices - The price of thermal coal at the production site has shown a slight decline. As of December 5, the price of 5500 kcal thermal coal in Datong is 635 RMB/ton, down 19 RMB/ton. The price of 6000 kcal thermal coal in Yanzhou is 1,010 RMB/ton, down 140 RMB/ton. The port price of thermal coal is 785 RMB/ton, down 31 RMB/ton [16][19] 3. Inventory and Shipping - The average daily coal inflow and outflow at the Bohai Rim ports have both decreased. The average daily inflow is 1.95 million tons, and the outflow is 1.73 million tons. The number of anchored vessels has decreased to 75, down 24 vessels or 24% week-on-week. The coal inventory at the ports has increased to 27.614 million tons [26][31] 4. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on insurance capital inflows and recommends resource stocks, particularly thermal coal stocks like Haohua Energy and Guanghui Energy, which are considered undervalued [2][36]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The current port coal prices are supported by supply and shipping price issues, with the northern region entering the heating season and expected increases in electricity consumption, leading to a forecast of fluctuating coal prices [1] - The average daily coal inflow to the four ports in the Bohai Rim increased to 1.977 million tons, a rise of 1.87% week-on-week, while the average daily outflow rose to 1.8744 million tons, an increase of 0.77% week-on-week [1][32] - The total inventory at the Bohai Rim ports reached 24.296 million tons, up 2.82% week-on-week, indicating a slow growth in year-on-year comparisons despite absolute increases in outflow and inventory [1][32] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,990.49 points, down 0.70% week-on-week, while the coal sector index fell by 1.46% to 3,047.30 points [10] - The trading volume for the coal sector decreased by 7.98% to 80.618 billion yuan [10] 2. Domestic Coal Prices - As of November 14, the price of 5500 kcal thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port increased by 17 yuan/ton to 834 yuan/ton, while prices for other regions showed mixed trends [16][19] 3. International Coal Prices - The Newcastle coal price index rose by 2.58 USD/ton to 108.81 USD/ton, while other international indices remained stable [19] 4. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The average daily coal inflow and outflow at the Bohai Rim ports showed increases, with a notable rise in the number of anchored vessels, indicating heightened activity in the coal market [32] 5. Shipping Costs - Domestic shipping costs increased by 0.31% week-on-week, reaching 51.52 yuan/ton [34] 6. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on resource stocks, particularly recommending Haohua Energy and Guanghui Energy as elastic targets in the thermal coal sector [37]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, there is a risk of increased volatility in global major asset classes. Investors are advised to maintain a strategic allocation to precious metals such as gold and be relatively cautious about risk assets such as equities next week. In the medium - term of the fourth quarter, the basic allocation view of equities > commodities > bonds is still held, and attention can be paid to potential buying opportunities for equity assets after the turmoil subsides [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: This week, focus on the new tariff threats from Trump and the marginal changes in the US government shutdown. There is a risk of further escalation of conflicts before the APEC meeting at the end of October. If the US government shutdown exceeds 30 days, it will increase the recession risk [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: China will gradually enter the period of focusing on the "15th Five - Year Plan" and tracking incremental policies. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will be held from October 20th to 23rd, and the market may start to pay attention to medium - and long - term marginal changes in the next five years. The progress and effectiveness of a batch of incremental policies such as 500 billion new policy - based financial instruments are also worth tracking [6]. - **Asset Views**: Maintain a strategic allocation to precious metals such as gold. Be cautious about risk assets such as equities next week. In the fourth - quarter medium - term, hold the view of equities > commodities > bonds and watch for buying opportunities in equity assets after the turmoil [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Catalyzed by technology events, the growth style is active. With crowded funds in small - cap stocks, the short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward movement [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: The overall market trading volume has slightly declined. With the risk of insufficient liquidity in the options market, the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market continues to be weak. Affected by factors such as policy, fundamental repair, and tariffs, the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold/Silver**: Driven by dovish expectations, with the restart of the US interest - rate cut cycle in September and increased risks to the Fed's independence, the short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward movement [7]. 3.2.3 Shipping Sector - **Container Shipping to Europe**: As the peak season in the third quarter fades, the load is under pressure and there is a lack of upward momentum. Pay attention to the rate of freight decline in September, and the short - term trend is expected to be volatile [7]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials Sector - **Steel Products**: Poor demand and policy disturbances. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as special bond issuance progress, steel exports, and iron - water production need to be monitored [7]. - **Iron Ore**: The fundamentals are relatively stable, but macro disturbances are increasing. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and attention should be paid to factors such as overseas mine production and shipment, domestic iron - water production, and policy dynamics [7]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increases has been implemented, and the market is temporarily stable. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as steel - mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment need to be watched [7]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply decreased during the holiday, and downstream replenishment slowed down. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as steel - mill production, coal - mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment should be monitored [7]. - **Silicon Iron**: Supply pressure is gradually accumulating, and cost support is strong. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as raw material costs and steel procurement need to be considered [7]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Cost support still exists, but supply and demand are loose, and prices are under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as cost prices and foreign quotes should be watched [7]. - **Glass**: Supply concerns have eased, and intermediate inventories are high. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and spot production and sales need to be monitored [7]. - **Soda Ash**: Production has slightly decreased, and inventories are continuously being transferred. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and soda - ash inventories should be watched [7]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials Sector - **Copper**: The supply - side contraction logic continues to ferment, and copper prices continue to be strong. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile upward movement, and factors such as supply disturbances, domestic policies, and Fed policies need to be monitored [7]. - **Alumina**: The fundamentals are still weak, and the upward price is under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as ore resumption and electrolytic - aluminum resumption need to be watched [7]. - **Aluminum**: Boosted by macro sentiment, aluminum prices are volatile and strong. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as macro risks and supply disturbances need to be monitored [7]. - **Zinc**: Inventory has returned to accumulation, and zinc prices rebound with non - ferrous metals. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as macro risks and zinc - ore supply need to be watched [7]. - **Lead**: With supply - side disturbances and slow battery exports, lead prices rebound with non - ferrous metals. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as supply - side disturbances and battery exports need to be monitored [7]. - **Nickel**: The expectation of loose supply and demand remains unchanged, and RKAB quota progress is fluctuating. Nickel prices are widely volatile. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as macro and geopolitical changes and Indonesian policies need to be watched [7]. - **Stainless Steel**: Driven by the rise in nickel prices, stainless steel prices are volatile and rising. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as Indonesian policies and demand growth need to be monitored [7]. - **Tin**: Supply disturbances continue, and tin prices are volatile at high levels. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as the resumption of production in Wa State and demand improvement need to be watched [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The restart rhythm of coal and northwest production is fluctuating, and industrial - silicon prices are volatile. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as supply - side over - reduction and photovoltaic installation need to be monitored [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The expectation of production suspension has ended, and lithium - carbonate prices are under pressure and volatile. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as demand and supply disturbances need to be watched [7]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil**: Affected by macro disturbances, the fundamentals are under continuous pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitical situations need to be monitored [8]. - **LPG**: Supply is still in excess, and the low - valuation situation is difficult to change. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as crude - oil and overseas propane costs need to be watched [8]. - **Asphalt**: Spot prices are continuously falling, and asphalt futures prices are also falling. The short - term trend is expected to be a downward movement, and factors such as sanctions and supply disturbances need to be monitored [8]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: With the expectation of increased production and geopolitical cooling, high - sulfur fuel - oil futures prices are falling. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as geopolitics and crude - oil prices need to be watched [8]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the decline of crude oil. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and crude - oil prices need to be monitored [8]. - **Methanol**: Affected by olefins but with Iranian disturbances still existing, pay attention to arbitrage opportunities between methanol and olefins. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as macro energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics need to be watched [8]. - **Urea**: After the holiday, there are insufficient positive factors, and the short - term weakness continues. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as the improvement of Sino - Indian relations and export expectations need to be monitored [8]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The fundamentals have weak support and the macro sentiment is pessimistic, so prices are under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as coal and oil prices, port inventory rhythm, and Sino - US trade frictions need to be watched [8]. - **PX**: Cost collapse drags down the valuation of chemical products. In a situation where supply and demand are both strong, the benefits are mainly volatile. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as large - scale fluctuations in crude oil, macro abnormalities, and PTA device restarts need to be monitored [8]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand expectation has slightly improved, but costs and macro sentiment have a significant drag, so prices are under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as large - scale fluctuations in crude oil, macro abnormalities, and the peak - season performance need to be watched [8]. - **Short - Fiber**: Costs drag down the absolute price, but the processing fee remains stable under stable supply and demand. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as downstream yarn - mill purchasing rhythm and peak - season demand need to be monitored [8]. - **Bottle Chip**: The raw - material cost support is weak, and the low - level speculative replenishment demand supports the bottle - chip processing - fee profit. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as bottle - chip enterprise production - reduction target implementation and terminal demand need to be watched [8]. - **Propylene**: Cost decline and the resurgence of tariff games lead to a weak and volatile PL. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as oil prices and domestic macro factors need to be monitored [8]. - **PP**: The raw - material end collapses and there are tariff disturbances, so PP prices are falling. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as oil prices and domestic and foreign macro factors need to be watched [8]. - **Plastic**: Oil prices have significantly declined, and plastic prices are weak and volatile. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as oil prices and domestic and foreign macro factors need to be monitored [8]. - **Styrene**: Inventory pressure is still high, and styrene prices are weak and volatile. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as oil prices, macro policies, and device dynamics need to be watched [8]. - **PVC**: There is still fundamental pressure, and PVC prices are volatile. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as expectations, costs, and supply need to be monitored [8]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price can be stopped for profit at low levels. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as market sentiment, production start - up, and demand need to be watched [8]. 3.2.7 Agricultural Sector - **Oils and Fats**: Pay attention to the effectiveness of the lower - level technical support. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data need to be monitored [8]. - **Protein Meal**: The sentiment boost is limited, and the market continues to be volatile at a low level. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as weather, domestic demand, and trade wars need to be watched [8]. - **Corn/Starch**: The pressure of selling new grain is coming, and the spot price drives the futures price to decline significantly. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as demand, macro factors, and weather need to be monitored [8]. - **Pig**: The planned October slaughter volume is increasing, and pig prices are under pressure. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies need to be watched [8]. - **Natural Rubber**: Although the negative factors have not been realized, the market sentiment remains weak. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as production - area weather, raw - material prices, and macro changes need to be monitored [8]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The range - bound pattern remains unchanged. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as large - scale fluctuations in crude oil need to be watched [8]. - **Cotton**: The decline of cotton prices has slowed down. Pay attention to the purchase price. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as demand and inventory need to be monitored [8]. - **Sugar**: Both domestic and foreign sugar prices are weak. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as imports and Brazilian production need to be watched [8]. - **Pulp**: The game of the virtual - to - real ratio may cause intraday fluctuations, but the effectiveness needs to be observed. The short - term trend is expected to be a volatile downward movement, and factors such as macro - economic changes and US - dollar - denominated quotes need to be monitored [8]. - **Double - Glued Paper**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is volatile. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile, and factors such as production and sales, education policies, and paper - mill production start - up need to be watched [8].