证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·煤炭开采 煤炭开采行业跟踪周报 库存边际下行，煤价探涨 2026 年 01 月 11 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 行业近况 本周（1 月 5 日至 1 月 9 日）港口动力煤现货价环比上涨 17 元/吨，报收 699 元/吨。 供给端，本周环渤海四港区日均调入量154.18万吨，环比上周增加16.73 万吨，涨幅 12.17%。本周产地供应较为稳定，部分停产煤矿元旦后恢 复产销，港口供应量有所增加。 需求端，本周环渤海四港区日均调出量 161.95 万吨，环比上周增加 6.45 万吨，涨幅 4.15%；日均锚地船舶共 86 艘，环比增加 22%。环渤海四 港区库存端 2669.70 万吨，环比上周下降 133 万吨，降幅 4.75% 。港口 本周整体库存绝对值边际下行，刚性需求释放，带动煤价上涨。 我们分析认为：目前港口煤价库存处于较高位置，下游供暖需求已提前 释放。短期全国气温偏高，叠加新能源水电风电挤压火电份额，预计煤 价维持震荡走势。 估值与建议： 仍旧关注保险资金增量；保费收入维持正增长，且向头部保险集中。固 收类资产荒依旧，叠 ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·煤炭开采 煤炭开采行业跟踪周报 库存持续上涨，煤价延续下行走势 2025 年 12 月 28 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 行业近况 本周（12 月 22 日至 12 月 26 日）港口动力煤现货价环比下跌 31 元/吨， 报收 672 元/吨。 供给端，本周环渤海四港区日均调入量 160.71 万吨，环比上周下降 3 万吨，降幅 1.83%。本周产地供应较为稳定，港口供应量有所减少。 需求端，本周环渤海四港区日均调出量 159.63 万吨，环比上周增加 6.46 万吨，涨幅 4.22%；日均锚地船舶共 65 艘，环比增加 3.6%。环渤海四 港区库存端 2987.20 万吨，环比上周上涨 22 万吨，增幅 0.74% 。港口 本周整体库存绝对值延续上涨趋势，需求释放有限，煤价有所下行。 我们分析认为：目前港口煤价库存处于较高位置，下游供暖需求已提前 释放。短期全国气温偏高，叠加新能源水电风电挤压火电份额，预计煤 价维持震荡走势。 仍旧关注保险资金增量；保费收入维持正增长，且向头部保险集中。固 收类资产荒依旧，叠加红利资产已经高位，所以关 ...

大盘五连阳后是不是要面临调整？手里有票的话该如何安排操作？倘若没票的朋友又该在什么情况下进 场？相关问题咱们来一一作答，还是先看一下今天股指期货多空的持仓数据，虽然沪深300这边多空争 夺依然激烈，但是另外两个以及中信期货都在降低空头仓位，说明已经有部分空头开始认输了，这种情 况下即便明天指数调整，也会促使更多空头平仓，调整幅度不会太大，因此大盘五连阳后确实有回撤需 求，但是鉴于部分空头已经认输离场，调整大概率也是倒车接人的机会，手中有票的朋友可以考虑做做 高抛低吸，没票的在调整至20日线附近可以考虑入场。 除了大盘之外今天很多人也开始关心板块了，毕竟商业航天因为长征十二号甲火箭回收失败的影响出现 大分歧，顺灏和航机甚至直接跌停，不过很多人认为，上次回收失败之后也没耽误商业航天继续上涨， 这次回收失败之后会不会也是如此呢？我觉得概率不高，上次是因为商业航天整体位置偏低，而且后面 还有长征12甲托底，现在商业航天的核心股全在高位，风险自然不可同日而语，所以这里商业航天的调 整时间可能会长一些，但是依然不能说板块行情已经终结，至少要看一次商业航天回流的力度再说。 还有要说的就是今天表现不错的芯片和液冷了，这两个也 ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·煤炭开采 煤炭开采行业跟踪周报 气温偏高需求疲弱，煤价延续下行走势 2025 年 12 月 21 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 行业近况 本周（12 月 15 日至 12 月 19 日）港口动力煤现货价环比下跌 42 元/吨， 报收 703 元/吨。 供给端，本周环渤海四港区日均调入量 163.71 万吨，环比上周下降 20 万吨，降幅 10.95%。本周产地供应较为稳定，港口供应量有所减少。 需求端，本周环渤海四港区日均调出量 153.17 万吨，环比上周下降 10 万吨，降幅 6.19%；日均锚地船舶共 63 艘，环比下降 16%；环渤海四 港区库存端 2965.2 万吨，环比上周上涨 50 万吨，增幅 1.7%。港口本周 整体调出量减少、库存绝对值上涨，需求释放有限，煤价有所下行。 我们分析认为：目前港口煤价库存处于较高位置，下游供暖需求已提前 释放。短期全国气温偏高，叠加新能源水电风电挤压火电份额，预计煤 价维持震荡走势。 估值与建议： 仍旧关注保险资金增量；保费收入维持正增长，且向头部保险集中。固 收类资产荒依旧，叠加红利资产已 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Add" [1] Core Viewpoints - The current port coal price inventory is at a high level, with downstream heating demand having been released early. Coupled with the pressure from renewable energy sources such as hydropower and wind power on thermal power generation, coal prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the incremental insurance funds, with premium income showing positive growth concentrated towards leading insurance companies. The ongoing scarcity of fixed-income assets, along with high dividend assets, suggests a shift in equity allocation preferences towards resource stocks [2][38] Summary by Sections Industry Current Situation - During the week of December 8 to December 12, the spot price of thermal coal at ports decreased by 40 CNY/ton, closing at 745 CNY/ton. The average daily inflow to the four ports in the Bohai Rim was 1.8384 million tons, a decrease of 110,000 tons week-on-week, down 5.76%. The average daily outflow was 1.6327 million tons, also down by 100,000 tons, a decrease of 5.72%. The inventory at the four ports increased to 29.157 million tons, up 1.54 million tons, an increase of 5.59% [1][29][33] Price Trends - The price of thermal coal at production sites showed a mixed trend, with the price of 5500 kcal thermal coal in Datong down by 25 CNY/ton to 610 CNY/ton, while the price of 4000 kcal thermal coal in Inner Mongolia remained stable at 430 CNY/ton. The price of 6000 kcal thermal coal in Yanzhou decreased by 30 CNY/ton to 980 CNY/ton [16] - The thermal coal price index in the Bohai Rim region fell by 3 CNY/ton to 703 CNY/ton, while the Qinhuangdao port price index for 5500 kcal thermal coal dropped by 6 CNY/ton to 709 CNY/ton [18] Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on elastic stocks in the thermal coal sector, particularly those with low valuations, such as Haohua Energy and Guanghui Energy [2][38]

人民财讯12月8日电，长城基金副总经理、投资总监杨建华表示，年末A股存在反弹动力，外围环境预 计相对平和，A股市场调整后风险已得到一定释放，走势有望趋于平稳，目前应该着眼2026年投资机会 的布局，当前关注的方向包括围绕AI等科技赛道新叙事的机会、美国进入降息周期的海外需求板块、 以及新一轮宽松下的资源股，此外，也应关注国内持续拉动内需带来的顺周期板块见底的投资机会。 ...

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·煤炭开采 煤炭开采行业跟踪周报 港口库存上升，煤价略有下行 2025 年 11 月 29 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 行业近况 本周（11 月 24 日至 11 月 28 日）港口动力煤现货价环比下跌 18 元/吨， 报收 816 元/吨。 供给端，本周环渤海四港区日均调入量 205.6 万吨，环比上周上涨 0.97 万吨，涨幅 0.47%。本周产地供应较为稳定，港口供应量有所增加。 需求端，本周环渤海四港区日均调出量 199 万吨，环比上周增加 21 万 吨，增幅 11.9%。日均锚地船舶共 100 艘，环比上周减少 24 艘，降幅 19%；环渤海四港区库存端 2661.10 万吨，环比上周上涨 68 万吨，增幅 2.61%。港口本周整体调出量增加、库存绝对值上涨，需求释放有限， 煤价略有下行。 我们分析认为：目前港口煤价库存处于较高位置，下游供暖需求已提前 释放，叠加新能源水电风电挤压火电份额，预计煤价维持震荡走势。 估值与建议： 仍旧关注保险资金增量；保费收入维持正增长，且向头部保险集中。固 收类资产荒依旧，叠加红利资产已经高位， ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The current port coal prices are stable, with the spot price for thermal coal at 834 RMB/ton as of November 21, 2025, showing no change from the previous week [1] - Supply side: The average daily inflow to the four ports in the Bohai Rim region is 2.0463 million tons, an increase of 69,300 tons or 3.50% from the previous week [1] - Demand side: The average daily outflow from the same ports is 1.78 million tons, a decrease of 94,400 tons or 5.04% from the previous week, indicating limited demand release [1] - The total inventory at the Bohai Rim ports has increased to 25.933 million tons, up by 1.64 million tons or 6.74% from the previous week [1] - The report suggests that coal prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend due to the heating season in northern regions and increasing electricity consumption in southern regions [1] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,834.89 points, down 3.45% from the previous week, while the coal sector index fell by 7.12% [10] - The total transaction amount for the coal sector was 82.296 billion RMB, an increase of 2.08% from the previous week [10] 2. Domestic Coal Prices - Domestic thermal coal prices have shown slight increases, with specific prices reported as follows: - Datong South Suburb 5500 kcal thermal coal at 700 RMB/ton, up 15 RMB/ton [16] - Inner Mongolia Chifeng 4000 kcal thermal coal at 430 RMB/ton, unchanged [16] - Yanzhou 6000 kcal thermal coal at 1,130 RMB/ton, up 10 RMB/ton [16] - The Bohai Rim thermal coal price index remains stable at 698 RMB/ton [18] 3. Inventory and Shipping - The average daily inflow of coal to the Bohai Rim ports increased, while the outflow decreased, indicating a buildup in inventory [26][30] - The average daily number of anchored vessels in the Bohai Rim ports decreased to 123, down 10% from the previous week [30] - The average shipping cost on domestic routes fell to 47.27 RMB/ton, a decrease of 8.25% [33] 4. Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring insurance capital inflows and suggests focusing on resource stocks, particularly recommending companies like Haohua Energy and Guanghui Energy as elastic targets [35]

Industry Overview - The average daily coal input at the four ports in the Bohai Rim region reached 1.977 million tons this week, an increase of 36,300 tons or 1.87% compared to last week [1] - The average daily coal output from the same ports was 1.8744 million tons, up by 14,300 tons or 0.77% week-on-week [1] - The total inventory at the Bohai Rim ports was 24.296 million tons, which increased by 666,000 tons or 2.82% from the previous week [1] - The spot price of thermal coal at the ports rose by 17 yuan per ton this week, closing at 834 yuan per ton [1] Demand and Supply Analysis - The supply side remains stable with an increase in port supply, while the demand side shows a slight increase in coal output [1] - The number of anchored vessels at the ports increased to 136, a rise of 42 vessels or 44% compared to last week [1] - The coal price is expected to maintain a volatile trend due to the support from supply and shipping price discrepancies, alongside the onset of heating season in northern regions [1] Valuation and Recommendations - The company suggests focusing on insurance capital inflows and the positive growth of premium income, particularly towards leading insurance firms [2] - There is an ongoing scarcity of fixed-income assets, leading to a preference for equity allocations, especially in resource stocks [2] - Core recommendations include elastic targets in thermal coal, particularly those with low valuations such as Haohua Energy and Guanghui Energy [2]

Core Viewpoint - The coal mining industry is experiencing stable supply and slight increases in both input and output volumes, with coal prices showing a fluctuating trend due to various market factors [1][2]. Supply Side - The average daily coal input at the four ports in the Bohai Rim reached 1.977 million tons, an increase of 36,300 tons or 1.87% compared to the previous week [1][2]. - Supply from production areas remains stable, with an increase in port supply [2]. Demand Side - The average daily coal output from the four ports in the Bohai Rim was 1.8744 million tons, up by 14,300 tons or 0.77% from the previous week [1][2]. - The number of anchored vessels increased to 136, representing a rise of 42 vessels or 44% compared to the previous week [1][2]. Inventory - The inventory at the four ports in the Bohai Rim stood at 24.296 million tons, which is an increase of 666,000 tons or 2.82% from the previous week [1][2]. Price Trends - The spot price of thermal coal at the ports increased by 17 yuan per ton, reaching 834 yuan per ton [2]. - The coal price is supported by supply and shipping price discrepancies, with expectations of maintaining a fluctuating trend due to seasonal demand increases in northern regions and cooling temperatures in southern regions [2]. Investment Recommendations - The company suggests focusing on resource stocks, particularly undervalued companies such as Haohua Energy and Guanghui Energy, as the market continues to favor these sectors [3].