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煤炭开采行业跟踪周报:库存显著下行,煤价持续上涨-20250817
Soochow Securities· 2025-08-17 13:58
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal industry is currently experiencing a peak season due to sustained high temperatures, leading to increased electricity consumption from both residential and industrial sectors. It is anticipated that with stable supply and rising demand, coal prices may continue to rise [1] - The report highlights a significant decrease in inventory levels, with the average daily coal inventory in the Bohai Rim region dropping to 23.685 million tons, a reduction of 974,000 tons or 3.95% compared to the previous week [1][29] - The average daily coal inflow to the Bohai Rim ports increased by 30,600 tons, or 1.89%, to 1.65 million tons, while the average daily outflow rose by 175,300 tons, or 10.99%, to 1.7704 million tons [1][26] Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.35% to 3,696.77 points during the week of August 11 to August 15, with a trading volume of 4.33 trillion yuan, an increase of 24.81% [10] - The coal sector index decreased by 0.52% to 2,675.94 points, with a trading volume of 35.982 billion yuan, down 7.79% [10] 2. Coal Prices - The port price of thermal coal increased by 16 yuan/ton to 698 yuan/ton as of August 15 [15] - The average price of thermal coal in major production areas showed a mixed trend, with prices in Datong and Yanzhou increasing, while prices in Inner Mongolia remained stable [15][19] 3. Inventory and Shipping - The number of anchored vessels in the Bohai Rim region increased by 35% to 93 ships, indicating heightened shipping activity [29] - Domestic shipping costs rose by 6.78% to 39.24 yuan/ton, reflecting increased transportation demand [31] 4. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on resource stocks, particularly recommending companies like Haohua Energy and Guanghui Energy as potential investment opportunities due to their low valuations and elasticity in coal production [2][33]
煤炭开采行业跟踪周报:供需较为匹配,煤价持续上行-20250810
Soochow Securities· 2025-08-10 07:48
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal mining industry is experiencing a supply-demand match, leading to a continuous increase in coal prices. As of August 8, 2025, the spot price of thermal coal at ports rose by 19 CNY/ton to 682 CNY/ton. The average daily inflow to the four ports in the Bohai Rim increased by 79,900 tons week-on-week, a growth of 5.19%. However, the average daily outflow decreased by 258,000 tons, a decline of 13.92%, indicating a stable supply with rising demand due to high temperatures [1][2][28] - The report suggests that the coal industry has entered a peak season due to sustained high temperatures, with continued growth in residential and industrial electricity consumption. It is anticipated that with stable supply and rising demand, coal prices may further increase [1][2] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.45% to 3635.13 points during the week of August 4 to August 8, 2025. The coal sector index increased by 3.02% to 2699.31 points, with a trading volume of 39.022 billion CNY, down 30.02% from the previous week [10][12] 2. Domestic Coal Prices - As of August 8, 2025, the price of thermal coal in major production areas showed a steady increase. For instance, the price of 5500 kcal thermal coal in Datong rose by 13 CNY/ton to 585 CNY/ton, while the price of 6000 kcal thermal coal in Yanzhou increased by 20 CNY/ton to 970 CNY/ton [17][22] 3. Inventory and Shipping - The average daily coal inflow to the Bohai Rim ports was 1.6194 million tons, up 5.19% week-on-week, while the outflow was 1.5951 million tons, down 13.92%. The total inventory at the ports decreased by 0.28% to 24.659 million tons [28][32] 4. Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the influx of insurance funds and suggests focusing on resource stocks. It recommends specific coal companies such as Haohua Energy and Guanghui Energy as potential investment targets due to their low valuations and elasticity [2][37]
煤炭开采行业跟踪周报:库存去化,煤价持续上行-20250802
Soochow Securities· 2025-08-02 13:47
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector in the next 6 months [1]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that coal prices are on the rise due to inventory depletion and increased demand driven by high temperatures, suggesting a potential for further price increases [1]. - The average daily coal inflow to the four ports in the Bohai Rim decreased by 14.26% week-on-week, while the average daily outflow increased by 4.88%, indicating a tightening supply situation [1][25]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring insurance capital inflows and suggests that resource stocks, particularly in the coal sector, are likely to be favored due to ongoing solid premium income growth [2][33]. Summary by Sections 1. Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.06% during the week, while the coal sector index decreased by 2.13% [10]. - The average daily coal price at Qinhuangdao port rose by 10 CNY/ton to 663 CNY/ton [1][16]. 2. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Daily coal inflow to the Bohai Rim ports was 1.5396 million tons, down 25.61 tons week-on-week, while daily outflow was 1.8531 million tons, up 8.61 tons [25][28]. - The total coal inventory at the Bohai Rim ports decreased by 8.22% to 24.727 million tons [28]. 3. Price Trends - The report notes that the price of 5500 kcal thermal coal in Datong increased by 32 CNY/ton to 572 CNY/ton, while the price of 6000 kcal coal in Yanzhou rose by 20 CNY/ton to 950 CNY/ton [16]. - The coal price index for the Bohai Rim region increased by 1 CNY/ton to 665 CNY/ton [18]. 4. Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on elastic coal stocks, particularly Haohua Energy and Guanghui Energy, which are considered undervalued [2][33].
煤炭开采行业跟踪周报:旺季期待不减,煤价持续上行-20250720
Soochow Securities· 2025-07-20 12:33
证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·煤炭开采 煤炭开采行业跟踪周报 旺季期待不减,煤价持续上行 2025 年 07 月 20 日 增持(维持) [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 行业近况 本周(7 月 14 日至 7 月 18 日)港口动力煤现货价环比上涨 10 元/吨, 报收 642 元/吨。 供给端,本周环渤海四港区日均调入量 174.31 万吨,环比上周下降 3.09 万吨,降幅 1.74%。矿山产地煤矿正常供应,港口供给略有下降。 需求端,本周环渤海四港区日均调出量171.69万吨,环比上周下降12.69 万吨,降幅 6.88%;日均锚地船舶共 99 艘,环比上周减少 1 艘,降幅 1.60%。库存端,环渤海四港区库存端 2693.5 万吨,环比上周增加 4.5 万吨,涨幅 0.17%。港口本周日均调入调出环比均有下降,整体库存绝 对值上行,主要由于市场情绪较好,但煤价上行真实成交不足导致。 我们分析认为:目前伴随高温天气持续,煤炭行业已逐步进入旺季,居 民及工业用电持续增长,我们预计伴随供给稳定,需求上行,煤价或有 进一步触底上行可能。 估值与建议: 仍旧关注保险资金增量;保费收入维持 ...
煤炭开采行业跟踪周报:港口库存持续去化,旺季煤价触底上行-20250706
Soochow Securities· 2025-07-06 02:41
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Accumulate" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that port coal inventories are continuously decreasing, and the coal prices are expected to rise as the peak season approaches, despite current weak industrial electricity demand limiting upward momentum [1][2] - The average daily coal inflow to the four ports in the Bohai Rim increased by 4.87% week-on-week, while the average daily outflow decreased by 2.68%, indicating a mixed demand-supply scenario [1][30] - The report highlights that the current coal prices are influenced by high inventory levels and weak industrial electricity demand, but with the onset of high temperatures, there is potential for further price increases [1] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.81% to 3472.32 points, while the coal sector index increased by 1.26% to 2580.17 points [10] - The trading volume for the coal sector reached 37.196 billion yuan, reflecting an increase of 8.96% [10] 2. Coal Prices - Port coal prices increased by 3 yuan/ton week-on-week, reaching 623 yuan/ton [17] - The average price of coal at production sites remained stable, with specific prices reported for different grades of coal [17] 3. Inventory and Shipping - The inventory at the Bohai Rim ports decreased by 3.21% to 27.33 million tons, indicating a downward trend towards historical normal levels [1][33] - The average daily number of anchored vessels in the Bohai Rim ports decreased by 1.01% [33] 4. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on resource stocks, particularly recommending companies like Haohua Energy and Guanghui Energy as elastic targets in the coal sector [2][38]
煤炭开采行业跟踪周报:迎峰度夏,煤价触底上行-20250629
Soochow Securities· 2025-06-29 08:37
证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·煤炭开采 煤炭开采行业跟踪周报 迎峰度夏,煤价触底上行 2025 年 06 月 29 日 增持(维持) [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 行业近况 本周(6 月 23 日至 6 月 27 日)港口动力煤现货价环比上涨 11 元/吨, 报收 620 元/吨。 供给端,本周环渤海四港区日均调入量 189.36 万吨,环比上周增长 2.07 万吨,增幅 1.11%。矿山产地煤矿正常供应,港口供给略有增长。 需求端,本周环渤海四港区日均调出量197.96万吨,环比上周增长13.60 万吨,增幅 7.38%;日均锚地船舶共 99 艘,环比上周增长 14 艘,增幅 15.83%。库存端,环渤海四港区库存端 2824.00 万吨,环比上周下降 59.80 万吨,降幅 2.07%。港口本周日均调出量环比增长,主要受天气 变热影响,整体库存绝对值下行,已逐步接近历史正常水平。 我们分析认为:煤炭价格目前主要受库存较高且需求较弱影响导致上 涨动能有限,但伴随高温天气持续,旺季逐步来临,煤价或有进一步触 底上行可能。 估值与建议: 仍旧关注保险资金增量;保费收入维持正增长,且向头部 ...
煤炭开采行业跟踪周报:港口库存仍处高位,煤价震荡运行-20250615
Soochow Securities· 2025-06-15 07:22
证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·煤炭开采 煤炭开采行业跟踪周报 港口库存仍处高位,煤价震荡运行 2025 年 06 月 15 日 增持(维持) [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 行业近况 本周(6 月 9 日至 6 月 13 日)港口动力煤现货价环比持平,报收 609 元 /吨。 供给端,本周环渤海四港区日均调入量 182.46 万吨,环比上周增长 7.81 万吨,增幅 4.47%。矿山产地煤矿正常供应,港口供给略有增长。 需求端,本周环渤海四港区日均调出量 189.41 万吨,环比上周减少 2.27 万吨,降幅 1.18%;日均锚地船舶共 75 艘,环比上周增长 7 艘,增幅 10.11%。库存端,环渤海四港区库存端 2868.8 万吨,环比上周下降 63.1 万吨,降幅 2.15%。港口本周日均调出量环比下降,库存绝对值减少, 但绝对值仍处高位,煤价震荡运行。 我们分析认为:煤炭价格目前主要受库存高位影响以及汛期水电稳增 影响导致上涨动能有限,但伴随逐步进入迎峰度夏旺季期,煤价或有进 一步触底上行可能。 估值与建议: 仍旧关注保险资金增量;保费收入维持正增长,且向头部保险集中。固 收类资 ...
煤炭开采行业跟踪周报:港口库存仍处高位,需求疲弱,煤价震荡运行
Soochow Securities· 2025-06-08 00:20
证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·煤炭开采 煤炭开采行业跟踪周报 港口库存仍处高位,需求疲弱,煤价震荡运 行 增持(维持) [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 行业近况 供给端,本周环渤海四港区日均调入量 174.64 万吨,环比上周减少 3.96 万吨,降幅 2.22%。矿山产地煤矿正常供应,港口供给略有下降。 需求端,本周环渤海四港区日均调出量 191.69 万吨,环比上周减少 12.6 万吨,降幅 6.17%;日均锚地船舶共 68 艘,环比上周减少 14 艘,降幅 17.25%。库存端,环渤海四港区库存端 2931.9 万吨,环比上周减少 125 万吨,降幅 4.1%。港口本周日均调出量环比下降,库存绝对值减少, 但绝对值仍处高位,煤价震荡运行。 我们分析认为:煤炭价格目前主要受库存高位影响以及汛期水电稳增 影响导致上涨动能有限,但伴随逐步进入迎峰度夏旺季期,煤价或有进 一步触底上行可能。 估值与建议: 仍旧关注保险资金增量;保费收入维持正增长,且向头部保险集中。固 收类资产荒依旧,叠加红利资产已经高位,所以关注权益配置变化,预 期更青睐于资源股。 本周(6 月 2 日至 6 月 6 日) ...
煤炭开采行业跟踪周报:港口库存逐步去化,仍处高位,煤价触底震荡运行-20250602
Soochow Securities· 2025-06-02 09:21
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The current coal prices are primarily influenced by high inventory levels and limited upward momentum due to the stable increase in hydropower during the flood season. However, as the peak summer demand period approaches, there is potential for coal prices to rise further [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the incremental insurance funds and the positive growth in premium income, which is increasingly concentrated among leading insurance companies. The ongoing scarcity of fixed-income assets and the high levels of dividend assets suggest a shift towards equity allocation, particularly favoring resource stocks [2][35] - The report recommends focusing on elastic targets in the thermal coal sector, specifically highlighting low-valuation stocks such as Haohua Energy and suggesting attention to Guanghui Energy [2][35] Summary by Sections Current Market Review - From May 26 to May 30, the average daily coal inflow to the four ports in the Bohai Rim was 1.786 million tons, an increase of 28,000 tons week-on-week, representing a growth of 1.59%. The average daily outflow was 2.043 million tons, up by 237,100 tons, a rise of 13.13%. The inventory at the Bohai Rim ports decreased to 30.572 million tons, down by 1.534 million tons, a decline of 4.78% [1][25][30] Price Trends - As of May 30, the price of thermal coal at the Dazhou South Suburb was 506 CNY/ton, up by 32 CNY/ton. The price at Inner Mongolia Chifeng remained stable at 380 CNY/ton, while the price at Yanzhou increased by 140 CNY/ton to 850 CNY/ton. The port price for thermal coal remained stable at 611 CNY/ton [16][18] - The thermal coal price index in the Bohai Rim remained unchanged at 669 CNY/ton, while the Qinhuangdao port price index also held steady at 665 CNY/ton [18] Inventory and Shipping - The number of anchored vessels in the Bohai Rim increased to 82, up by 20 vessels, a rise of 33.18%. The coal inventory at the Bohai Rim ports decreased to 30.572 million tons, down by 1.534 million tons, a decline of 4.78% [30][31] Shipping Costs - The average shipping cost on domestic routes increased by 0.24 CNY/ton to 35.83 CNY/ton, reflecting a rise of 0.68% [32]
煤炭开采行业跟踪周报:供需疲弱,港口库存仍处高位,煤价震荡运行-20250518
Soochow Securities· 2025-05-18 10:30
证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·煤炭开采 煤炭开采行业跟踪周报 供需疲弱,港口库存仍处高位,煤价震荡运 行 增持(维持) [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 行业近况 本周(5 月 12 日至 5 月 16 日)港口动力煤现货价环比下跌,报收 614 元/吨。 供给端,本周环渤海四港区日均调入量175.69万吨,环比上周减少28.54 万吨,降幅 1.10%。矿山产地煤矿正常供应,港口供给略有下降。 需求端,本周环渤海四港区日均调出量 181.79 万吨,环比上周增加 7.39 万吨,增幅 4.23%;日均锚地船舶共 46 艘,环比上周增加 3 艘,增幅 7.59%。库存端,环渤海四港区库存端 3292.41 万吨,环比上周增加 89.13 万吨,增幅 2.78%。港口本周日均调出量环比略有增加,受部分电厂补 库需求影响。库存端略有增加,同比仍处高位,叠加下游需求淡季影响, 煤价震荡运行。 我们分析认为:煤炭价格目前主要受库存高位影响、需求刚需为主以及 汛期水电稳增影响导致上涨动能有限,但伴随五一节后将逐步进入迎 峰度夏旺季期,煤价或有进一步上行可能。 估值与建议: 仍旧关注保险资金增量;保费 ...