Let's continue that conversation this morning with Dan Greenhouse, chief strategist, managing director at Solless Alternative Asset Management, who joins us here at Post9. Happy Friday, DG. Good to see you.So, this uh this week, has it been like a a healthy breather going into a ramp in the year end or is the rally as broad as you would have liked. >> No, the rally is not as broad as I would have liked. It's there's a lot of lowquality and uh bitcoin related names that that have led the way, but but also ho ...

Market Outlook - Market anticipates a rate cut in October, which is bullish for crypto due to increased liquidity and risk-on flows [2] Economic Indicators - Inflation is stable [3] - Tariffs are not causing an inflation shock [3] - Consumer spending is under control [3]

Core Insights - US personal spending increased in August, surpassing forecasts, indicating steady underlying inflationary pressures [1] - Inflation-adjusted consumer spending rose by 0.4% for the second consecutive month, reflecting consumer resilience [1] - The core personal consumption index saw a 0.2% increase from July, suggesting persistent inflation trends [1] Economic Impact - The data is significant for the Federal Reserve as it assesses monetary policy in light of consumer spending trends [1] - The steady rise in personal spending may influence future interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve [1] - The overall economic outlook remains cautiously optimistic due to the sustained consumer spending levels [1]

Core Viewpoint - Despite high tariffs, persistent inflation, and challenges in job searching, consumer spending in the U.S. has increased in August, contributing positively to the economy [1] Group 1 - Consumer spending has shown resilience, indicating that Americans are continuing to spend despite economic pressures [1] - The increase in spending is crucial for maintaining economic momentum in the U.S. [1]

US personal spending rose in August by more than forecast as underlying inflationary pressures held steady, illustrating a resilient consumer. https://t.co/oiosTBqndm ...

Group 1 - The final Q2 GDP showed one of the largest upward revisions in recent years, indicating the strongest growth in nearly two years, primarily driven by consumer spending [1][3] - The contraction in the first quarter was attributed to higher imports as companies stockpiled goods ahead of new tariffs, but the positive Q2 results were not solely due to a decline in imports [2][3] - Personal consumption expenditure rose by 2.5% in Q2, significantly higher than the second estimate of 1.6%, suggesting that concerns about a downturn in the USA may be premature [3] Group 2 - Initial jobless claims on 25 September were significantly lower than consensus, indicating a potentially stronger job market than previously perceived [4] - The likelihood of a Fed rate cut on 29 October remains high at around 85%, but the probability of cuts at future meetings has decreased by over 20% compared to the previous week [5] - The euro-dollar has declined recently as sentiment on the dollar improved, supported by the upward revision to GDP and lower initial jobless claims [7]

Core Insights - The U.S. economy experienced a significant upward revision in GDP growth for the second quarter, now reported at an annual rate of 3.8%, compared to earlier estimates of 3.3% and 3% [1][2] - This growth was primarily driven by a notable acceleration in consumer spending, with real final sales to domestic purchasers increasing by 2.9%, surpassing previous estimates of 1.9% [2] - The revised data indicates a strong rebound from a decline of 0.5% in the first quarter, marking the weakest economic growth period since 2022 [3] Economic Indicators - Jobless claims decreased to 218,000 from 232,000, which is significantly lower than the Dow Jones consensus of 235,000 [4] - The Federal Reserve of Atlanta projects a real GDP growth rate of 3.3% for the third quarter, slightly downgraded from an earlier estimate of 3.4% due to decreased residential investment growth [6] Analyst Reactions - Analysts noted the nearly 1% increase in GDP growth as "notable and outside the norm," especially in a year characterized by volatility and mixed economic signals [5] - Positive sentiment was expressed regarding the economy's performance, with stronger-than-expected jobless claims and retail sales [5] Consumer Sentiment and Inflation - Recent consumer sentiment has shown increased pessimism, with a decline reported in September, amid rising inflation and a weakening job market [8] - The upcoming release of personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index data is anticipated, with expectations of annual inflation reaching 3% in August [7]

Core Insights - Retailers and brands are planning to increase prices to mitigate the impact of tariffs, but this strategy is complicated by economic challenges and the approaching holiday season [1] - Executives from major off-price companies are closely monitoring mainstream retailers' pricing strategies to maintain their value advantage while raising prices [2] - Consumer confidence is declining due to tariff-related price increases and a weakening labor market, leading to slower growth in personal consumption expenditures [2][3] Consumer Spending Trends - US consumer spending growth is expected to remain weak through 2025, with a potential uneven recovery starting in late 2026 across different income groups and spending categories [3] - Wealthier households are increasing their spending on luxury goods, while lower-income households are focusing on essential items, highlighting a growing divide in consumer behavior [3] Price Increases in Luxury Goods - Prices for luxury goods are rising significantly, with high-end luxury handbags increasing by 9%, mid-tier luxury handbags by 14%, women's sneakers by 12%, women's boots by 9%, and women's denim jackets by 34% over the past year [4]

Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN ) has contrasting forces at play that may be holding back shares from stronger growth. With growing concerns for consumer spending as the U.S. economy weakens, growth across its consumer-facing businesses may be at risk. On the other hand, Amazon has aMonte Independent Investment Research: Michael Del Monte is a buy-side equity analyst with over 5 years of industry experience. Prior to working in the investment management industry, Michael spent over a decade in professional s ...

Group 1 - The stock market is reaching new heights, but this does not correlate with a rally in the macroeconomy, indicating a potential disconnect between market performance and economic fundamentals [1] - Consumer-facing businesses are showing warning signs regarding consumer confidence and spending, suggesting challenges in the retail sector [1] Group 2 - The article highlights the author's extensive experience in covering technology companies and working with startups, which provides insights into current industry trends [1]