The debasement trade does not care about your 4-year cycles... ...

Group 1 - Starbucks announced it will furlough 900 employees and close approximately 400 stores as part of a $1 billion restructuring plan, resulting in a 1% decline in North American stores for fiscal year 2025 [3] - US consumer confidence declined more than expected in September, with assessments of business conditions and job availability falling for the ninth consecutive month [6] - Inflation remained stable since August, with a year-over-year increase of 2.7% as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index [6][10] Group 2 - The three major US stock market indices (Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq) all finished the week with gains exceeding 1%, driven by investor interest in artificial intelligence [13] - The US national debt is approaching $38 trillion, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [16] - The US M2 money supply surged by 4.8% year-over-year in August 2025, reaching a record $22.2 trillion, marking the fastest growth since July 2022 [17] Group 3 - The US Treasury's gold reserves have surpassed $1 trillion in value, which could significantly reduce the need for issuing Treasury bonds if revalued [19] - Analysts are discussing the potential for a gold revaluation, which could further impact the national debt-to-GDP ratio [23][26] - Year-to-date performance for major asset classes shows gold up 45%, silver up 61%, and gold miners proxy up 123% [27]

Market Overview - Bitcoin surged to $120,000, briefly reaching $121,000, approaching its all-time high of $124,457 from August, with a nearly 10% increase in the past week driven by strong demand from spot Bitcoin ETFs, which saw inflows of $627 million over four consecutive days [1] - Ethereum ETFs also experienced significant inflows of $307 million during the same period, indicating a growing interest in alternative cryptocurrencies [1] Wall Street Predictions - Citigroup forecasts Bitcoin could reach $181,000 in the next 12 months, with a more conservative year-end target of $133,000, while projecting ETF inflows could total $7.5 billion by year-end [2] - Conversely, Citigroup warns that Bitcoin could drop to $83,000 if the global economy weakens [2] - Citigroup has also raised its year-end forecast for Ethereum to $4,500, citing staking yields as a key factor attracting institutional investors [3] Retail Demand Trends - JPMorgan analysts report that retail investors are increasingly turning to Bitcoin and gold as part of the "debasement trade," driven by inflation concerns, high government deficits, and declining confidence in fiat currencies [4] - Bitcoin has risen nearly 95% over the past year, while gold and silver have increased by more than 40% and about 60%, respectively [4] Investment Strategies - Investors are diversifying their portfolios across Bitcoin, gold, and silver to seek protection against economic uncertainty [5] Options Market Insights - Data from Glassnode indicates that traders are focusing on the $100,000–$120,000 range for Bitcoin, with some speculative bets placed at $130,000 and even $300,000 [6] - The balance between call and put options suggests that traders are hedging both upside and downside risks, highlighting $120,000 as a critical market level [6] Seasonal Trends - The fourth quarter is typically bullish for Bitcoin, with the broader crypto market also experiencing a rally, as analysts speculate on potential future growth in the sector [7]

Market Trends - JP Morgan analysts are calling the strategy favoring gold and Bitcoin "the debasement trade" [1] Investment Strategy - The strategy involves favoring gold and Bitcoin [1]

Mainstream media is catching onto the Bitcoin ‘debasement trade’Five years after the U.S. government printed trillions of dollars in stimulus. https://t.co/YKedqKsVbg ...