Economic Growth & Inflation - Economists and policymakers view moderate inflation as beneficial for driving economic growth [1] - Moderate inflation helps in preventing deflation [1] Impact on Consumption & Savings - Moderate inflation has an impact on consumption and savings [1]

Thailand’s longer tenor bonds are drawing in global investors after a sharp selloff last month as persistent deflation revives expectations of interest-rate cuts from the central bank https://t.co/zDl5kvPOxK ...

genius act compliance costs run $3-5m annually minimum. projects burning that without revenue face liquidation by q2 2026. aerodrome crossed into deflation with revenue exceeding emissions. jupiter pulling $866m fees. hyperliquid at $1b+ annualized. the regulatory floor just became revenue not roadmaps. teams with 10:1 marketing to dev spend getting repriced to zero. teams with audited contracts and actual transaction volume getting institutional rotation. binary outcome accelerating. ...

aerodrome crossed into deflation september 2025. first dex where revenue exceeded emissions. $408m fees generated, $958m market cap. uniswap at $8.7b generates zero for holders. curve fragments value across gauges. aerodrome pays 100% to veaero lockers getting 40% apr. coinbase owns mid 8 figures worth. animoca just max locked. the only top 10 defi protocol trading at 2.5x revenue. everything else trades 10x+ or has no revenue at all. ve(3,3) just killed the governance token model. ...

helium burning $400k weekly from mobile revenue at $448m market cap. render at $1.2b with unclear revenue share. grass down 90% facing 72% dilution tomorrow. hivemapper up 74% on enterprise deals but only 36% global coverage. 500k helium mobile signups, 100% revenue burns hnt. depin finally has one project with actual users paying actual fees creating actual deflation. the rest are infrastructure tokens hoping for 2028. ...

RT Satflation⚡ (@satflation)More musings on etching (w/ unspendable UTXOs) vs OP_RETURNtldr: Y’all SURE etching ain’t the way to go??Stupid frog GIF etching80 kB forever82,000 sats fee1,859 UTXOs added forever (330 sats each)613,470 sats deflationhttps://t.co/k3REZhTdpvDumb BIP OP_RETURN44 kB forever97,000 sats fee29 UTXOs spent0 deflationhttps://t.co/zWZDICmuZsLet’s forget the argument that storage in OP_RETURN changes the “purpose” of bitcoin to arbitrary data and that’s very, very bad.I get it, the dumb ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the **Asia Pacific** region, particularly the economic impacts of **China's deflationary pressures** on other Asian economies. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **China's Deflationary Environment**: - China's economy has been experiencing deflation for 10 consecutive quarters, with a GDP deflator of -1.0% as of Q3 2025, indicating persistent deflationary pressures [2][4][44]. - The non-commodity Producer Price Index (PPI) in Asia excluding China is also declining, influenced by China's trade surpluses and excess capacity [1][10]. 2. **Impact on Asia Ex China**: - The report identifies **Thailand, Malaysia, and Korea** as the most exposed economies to China's deflationary pressures, while **Australia and Japan** are the least exposed [3][76][80]. - The PPI for Thailand is at -1.2%, Malaysia at -5.0%, and Korea at 0.7%, indicating varying levels of exposure to deflation [76]. 3. **Central Banks' Response**: - Central banks in Asia are likely to continue easing monetary policy, as inflation is within or below comfort zones for eight out of ten economies in the region [5]. 4. **Trade Dynamics**: - China's trade surplus has increased significantly, from **US$890 billion** in September 2024 to **US$1,174 billion** currently, with exports to the US declining by **27%** year-on-year [56][62]. - The share of Asia ex China in China's exports has risen from **39%** to **41%** [10]. 5. **Sectoral Analysis**: - Sectors most affected by China's deflation include **motor vehicles, electronics, and battery manufacturing**. These sectors are experiencing significant pricing pressures due to competitive dynamics with China [67][70]. - The report highlights that **13 out of 14 non-commodity manufacturing sectors** in China are seeing price declines, with pharmaceuticals and automotive sectors being particularly impacted [47][52]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Risks to the Economic Outlook**: - Potential risks include stronger global growth or intensified anti-involution efforts in China, which could alter the current deflationary trajectory [6]. 2. **Framework for Assessment**: - A scorecard approach is introduced to assess the exposure of Asian economies to China's deflation, considering factors like PPI weight, correlation with China's PPI, and export similarity [3][75]. 3. **Long-term Implications**: - Without significant stimulus to boost demand, achieving a sustained exit from deflation in China remains challenging, which will continue to affect the broader Asian economic landscape [4][43]. 4. **Sector-Specific Pricing Trends**: - Pricing trends in key sectors such as **autos and batteries** remain weak, with significant price declines noted in recent months [52][54]. 5. **Comparative Analysis of Economies**: - Japan and Australia show resilience with positive PPI growth, indicating lower exposure to deflationary pressures compared to their Asian counterparts [80][81]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the interconnectedness of China's economic conditions and their implications for the broader Asia Pacific region.

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Economics** sector, particularly analyzing inflation trends and upstream prices influenced by anti-involution efforts [1][4][6]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Inflation Trends**: - Headline CPI remained soft at -0.3% YoY, while core inflation rose to 1.0% YoY for the first time in 19 months, indicating a gradual recovery in core goods inflation, particularly in gold jewelry and durable goods [1][4][6]. - Core goods inflation is estimated at 1.5% YoY, the highest since January 2020, driven by significant increases in gold jewelry prices (6.5% MoM and 42.1% YoY) [4][6][9]. - **PPI Dynamics**: - PPI deflation narrowed to -2.3% YoY, with a sequential change of 0.0% MoM, suggesting some stabilization in upstream prices due to anti-involution initiatives [4][6][16]. - The contraction in ferrous metal smelting narrowed significantly to -0.6% YoY from -10.0% YoY two months prior, indicating a recovery in this sector [4][6][16]. - **Sector Performance**: - Downstream sectors showed limited improvement, with PPI for autos contracting by -3.0% YoY and electronics prices declining by -2.5% YoY, highlighting ongoing demand challenges [4][6][16]. - Energy prices negatively impacted headline CPI, with transportation fuel prices dropping -1.7% MoM [4][6]. - **Future Outlook**: - The GDP deflator is expected to find a bottom in Q3 2025, supported by base effects and anti-involution initiatives, but the medium-term reflation outlook remains uncertain and heavily reliant on demand-side factors [6][7]. - Policymakers are expected to focus on supply and demand rebalancing in the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan, with potential regulatory actions in the solar sector [6][7]. Additional Important Insights - **Consumer Behavior**: - The report notes that one-off factors, such as gold prices and trade-in subsidies, may not provide sustainable inflationary impulses going forward, emphasizing the need for a more balanced demand-supply dynamic [7][16]. - **Sector-Specific Developments**: - The report highlights price increases in solar energy and a narrowing contraction in lithium battery prices, indicating potential growth areas within the energy sector [4][6][16]. - **Policy Implications**: - The anti-involution initiative is seen as a critical factor in stabilizing prices, with explicit announcements from the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) expected to support this effort [6][7]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape in China, particularly regarding inflation and sector performance.

Group 1: UK Tax Burden and Economic Impact - The UK's tax burden is projected to rise sharply, with government revenues expected to account for 40.6% of GDP by 2029, up from 38.3% in 2024, equating to approximately £65 billion in additional tax revenue [4][45][46] - Rachel Reeves is raising taxes at the fastest pace in the G7, with the IMF indicating that no other country is increasing levies as quickly as the UK [4][44][40] - The rising tax burden is seen as detrimental to Britain's long-term productivity and international competitiveness, potentially making the UK a laggard in economic growth [2][46][48] Group 2: Market Reactions and Stock Performance - EasyJet's shares fell nearly 5%, leading the FTSE 100 index's decline, which ended the trading session down 0.3% [1] - Burberry Group shares rose by 3.3%, buoyed by positive performance in luxury stocks, particularly following LVMH's revenue increase [5] - Morgan Stanley reported a record revenue of $18.2 billion in the third quarter, with investment banking revenue rising to $2.1 billion, reflecting a resurgence in deal-making activity [54][56] Group 3: Gold and Silver Market Trends - Gold prices reached a record high of $4,206.59, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts in the US and UK, and concerns over stagflation [11][12][13] - Silver prices also surged, eclipsing $53 an ounce, with the Royal Mint warning of delivery delays due to increased demand [29][31] - The demand for precious metals is attributed to their status as safe-haven assets amid rising geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties [12][86] Group 4: IMF Insights and Recommendations - The IMF has called for the UK Chancellor to maintain two official economic forecasts annually to ensure transparency and stability in fiscal policy [6][7] - The IMF's analysis predicts that debt levels in rich countries will surpass 100% of GDP by the end of the decade, with the UK expected to see its debt rise from 94.6% to 96.4% of GDP by 2030 [33][36] - The IMF's projections highlight the need for countries to balance tax increases with growth-friendly reforms to avoid long-term economic stagnation [48][34]

China’s deflation eased in September, leaving the country on track for the longest streak of economy-wide price declines since market reforms in the late 1970s. https://t.co/fxffdWMsrt ...