Core Viewpoint - The U.S. is increasing tariffs on imported autos, pharmaceuticals, and lumber from South Korea from 15% to 25% due to delays in legislative approval of a trade deal [1][2][3] Group 1: Tariff Increases - Tariffs on South Korean imports, specifically autos, pharmaceuticals, and lumber, will rise from 15% to 25% [1][3] - The increase in tariffs is a response to the South Korean legislature's failure to approve a trade agreement reached in July 2025 [2][3] Group 2: Trade Agreement Context - The trade deal was initially agreed upon by U.S. President Donald Trump and South Korean President Lee Jae Myung on July 30, 2025 [2] - The terms of the trade agreement were reaffirmed during Trump's visit to South Korea on October 29, 2025 [2] Group 3: Impact on Companies - Hyundai Motor, a South Korean automaker, is identified as the largest importer of new vehicles from South Korea into the United States [3]

Core Viewpoint - China reported a record trade surplus of $1.189 trillion in 2025, driven by strong export growth and a strategic shift in focus to other markets due to U.S. tariff tensions [1][4]. Group 1: Export Performance - Outbound shipments increased by 6.6% year-on-year in December, surpassing economists' expectations of a 3.0% increase [4]. - Monthly export surpluses exceeded $100 billion seven times in the previous year, indicating resilience against U.S. trade policies [5]. - The auto industry saw a significant export increase of 19.4%, with pure electric vehicle shipments rising by 48.8% [7]. Group 2: Market Strategy - Chinese firms are shifting their focus to Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs [2]. - Economists predict that China will continue to gain global market share, aided by the establishment of overseas production hubs for lower-tariff access to the U.S. and EU [6]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The record trade surplus raises concerns about China's trade practices and overcapacity, as well as the global reliance on Chinese products [3]. - Chinese leadership is increasingly aware of the need to balance exports with imports, as indicated by Premier Li Qiang's call for expanding imports [8].

Summary of the Conference Call Transcript Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Economic Outlook - **Key Focus**: Public capital expenditure (capex) and private consumption trends in early 2026 Core Insights 1. **Growth Projections**: Early 2026 growth is expected to be led by public capex, with a potential pull towards 5% growth in Q1, although sustainability is questioned due to weak consumer and property sectors [1][6][8] 2. **GDP Tracking**: Q4 2025 GDP is projected to remain below 4.5%, despite a possible year-end rebound driven by fiscal expansion and resilient external demand [3][8] 3. **Public Capex Initiatives**: - Central budget for infrastructure projects increased to Rmb295 billion in Q1 2026 from Rmb200 billion in Q1 2025 - Local government bond issuance plan for Q1 2026 is Rmb665 billion, up from Rmb422 billion in the previous year [6][10] - New venture capital guidance aims to mobilize over Rmb1 trillion [10] 4. **Consumption Trends**: - Consumer spending is lagging, with retail momentum fading post-holiday and subdued service consumption - Continued support for goods trade-in programs, but initial allocations are smaller than the previous year [6][8][30] 5. **Inflation Dynamics**: - Recent upticks in CPI and PPI are not indicative of sustained reflation; core CPI remains muted due to weak final demand [7][8][25] - Inflation increases are primarily driven by commodities like gold and coal, rather than broad-based demand [7][8][25] Additional Important Points 1. **Trade-in Scheme Adjustments**: The 2026 trade-in scheme maintains a similar scale to 2025 but starts softer, with reduced subsidies for home appliances and a narrower range of eligible products [4][30] 2. **Monitoring Indicators**: Key indicators to watch in the coming months include: - Infrastructure bond issuance pace - Consumer goods trade-in program rollout - Mortgage-subsidy pilot designs post-NPC in March [8][9] 3. **Long-term Outlook**: A moderation in growth is anticipated from Q2 2026, with potential housing policy adjustments and incremental support for consumption and social welfare in the second half of the year [8][9] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, focusing on the economic outlook for China, particularly regarding public investment and consumer behavior.

Summary of the Conference Call on China's "Dual Upgrade" Program Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **consumer goods industry** in China, specifically focusing on the **2026 consumer goods trade-in and equipment upgrade program**, referred to as the "dual upgrade" program [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Program Announcement**: On December 30th, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Ministry of Finance (MOF) released guidelines for the 2026 "dual upgrade" program, adjusting subsidy categories and levels to support areas like livelihood, security, elderly care, green products, and AI [1][2]. 2. **Funding Details**: The initial funding for the program is set at **RMB 62.5 billion**, which is lower than the **RMB 81 billion** allocated in 2025. The total expected funding for 2026 is around **RMB 250 billion**, slightly below the **RMB 300 billion** from 2025 [1][2][6]. 3. **Impact on Retail Sales**: Although retail sales growth is expected to pick up in early 2026 due to the new subsidy quota, full-year nominal retail sales growth is projected to decelerate from **3.8% in 2025 to 2.7% in 2026** due to reduced subsidies and their diminishing impact [1][7]. 4. **Subsidy Adjustments**: The subsidy structure has been modified, with a shift from fixed subsidies per vehicle to a percentage-based subsidy tied to the vehicle's price. For home appliances, subsidies will now only apply to products meeting Level 1 energy-efficiency standards, with a subsidy rate of **15%** (down from **20%**) and a maximum subsidy of **RMB 1,500** per item (down from **RMB 2,000**) [9][2]. 5. **Eligible Products**: The program will focus on products with broad reach, narrowing the scope of qualified home appliances from **12 to 6 sub-categories** and expanding coverage to include digital products like smart glasses and smart home devices for elderly consumers [9][2]. 6. **Implementation Challenges**: The effectiveness of the trade-in program is contingent on both funding and implementation. The previous program's impact faded due to slower subsidy disbursement and tighter application processes, particularly affecting home appliance trade-in applications [2][10]. Additional Important Content - **Long-term Recovery Measures**: To achieve a sustainable recovery in consumption, it is suggested that measures should prioritize job creation and income improvement, such as subsidizing labor-intensive services and enhancing income distribution through mechanisms like raising the minimum wage [7][2]. - **Historical Context**: The initial boost from the trade-in program was noted in Q4 2024 and H1 2025, but its effects have diminished over time, indicating a need for ongoing adjustments to maintain consumer engagement [2][10]. This summary encapsulates the essential points from the conference call regarding the "dual upgrade" program and its implications for the consumer goods industry in China.

Core Point - The U.S. will reduce import duties on South Korean automobiles to 15%, effective retroactively from November 1, aligning with the tariffs imposed on Japan and the EU [1] Group 1 - The new tariff rate of 15% matches the reciprocal tariffs that Japan and the EU have imposed [1] - The decision was announced by Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick [1]

Core Insights - South Korea's exports increased by 8.4% in November, reaching $61.04 billion, surpassing market expectations of a 5.7% rise [1][2] - This marks the sixth consecutive month of export growth, driven by record semiconductor sales and a significant increase in auto exports following a U.S. trade deal [1][2] Export Performance - Semiconductor exports surged by 38.5% to a record $17.26 billion, fueled by strong demand for advanced chips used in data centers [2] - Auto exports rose by 13.7% due to the resolution of uncertainties regarding U.S. tariffs after a trade deal was finalized [2] - Shipments to China increased by 6.9%, while exports to Southeast Asian countries rose by 6.3%. However, shipments to the European Union declined by 1.9% [3] Economic Context - The Bank of Korea indicated it is nearing the end of its monetary easing cycle, raising its economic growth forecast for the next year due to strong semiconductor exports [3] - The South Korean economy grew at its fastest pace in a year and a half during the third quarter, supported by robust export performance despite challenges from U.S. tariffs [3] Import and Trade Balance - Imports rose by 1.2% to $51.30 billion in November, which was below the expected 3.4% increase [4] - The trade balance recorded a surplus of $9.7 billion, the largest since September 2017, compared to a surplus of $6.0 billion in the previous month [4]

M Update Morgan Stanley Asia Limited Zhipeng Cai Economist Zhipeng.Cai@morganstanley.com +852 2239-7820 Harry Zhao Economist Harry.Zhao@morganstanley.com +852 2239-7229 Robin Xing Chief China Economist Robin.Xing@morganstanley.com +852 2848-6511 Jenny Zheng, CFA Economist Jenny.L.Zheng@morganstanley.com +852 3963-4015 Morgan Stanley appreciates your support in the 2026 Extel (ex-Institutional Investor) Asia Research Survey. Voting opens 12 November 2025. Exhibit 1 : Summary Table November 7, 2025 06:00 AM G ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the **Asia Pacific** region, particularly the economic impacts of **China's deflationary pressures** on other Asian economies. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **China's Deflationary Environment**: - China's economy has been experiencing deflation for 10 consecutive quarters, with a GDP deflator of -1.0% as of Q3 2025, indicating persistent deflationary pressures [2][4][44]. - The non-commodity Producer Price Index (PPI) in Asia excluding China is also declining, influenced by China's trade surpluses and excess capacity [1][10]. 2. **Impact on Asia Ex China**: - The report identifies **Thailand, Malaysia, and Korea** as the most exposed economies to China's deflationary pressures, while **Australia and Japan** are the least exposed [3][76][80]. - The PPI for Thailand is at -1.2%, Malaysia at -5.0%, and Korea at 0.7%, indicating varying levels of exposure to deflation [76]. 3. **Central Banks' Response**: - Central banks in Asia are likely to continue easing monetary policy, as inflation is within or below comfort zones for eight out of ten economies in the region [5]. 4. **Trade Dynamics**: - China's trade surplus has increased significantly, from **US$890 billion** in September 2024 to **US$1,174 billion** currently, with exports to the US declining by **27%** year-on-year [56][62]. - The share of Asia ex China in China's exports has risen from **39%** to **41%** [10]. 5. **Sectoral Analysis**: - Sectors most affected by China's deflation include **motor vehicles, electronics, and battery manufacturing**. These sectors are experiencing significant pricing pressures due to competitive dynamics with China [67][70]. - The report highlights that **13 out of 14 non-commodity manufacturing sectors** in China are seeing price declines, with pharmaceuticals and automotive sectors being particularly impacted [47][52]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Risks to the Economic Outlook**: - Potential risks include stronger global growth or intensified anti-involution efforts in China, which could alter the current deflationary trajectory [6]. 2. **Framework for Assessment**: - A scorecard approach is introduced to assess the exposure of Asian economies to China's deflation, considering factors like PPI weight, correlation with China's PPI, and export similarity [3][75]. 3. **Long-term Implications**: - Without significant stimulus to boost demand, achieving a sustained exit from deflation in China remains challenging, which will continue to affect the broader Asian economic landscape [4][43]. 4. **Sector-Specific Pricing Trends**: - Pricing trends in key sectors such as **autos and batteries** remain weak, with significant price declines noted in recent months [52][54]. 5. **Comparative Analysis of Economies**: - Japan and Australia show resilience with positive PPI growth, indicating lower exposure to deflationary pressures compared to their Asian counterparts [80][81]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the interconnectedness of China's economic conditions and their implications for the broader Asia Pacific region.

Group 1 - Asian share markets experienced a significant selloff, particularly in drugmakers and furniture makers, following the announcement of new tariffs by U.S. President Donald Trump [1][5] - The new tariffs include a 100% duty on branded drugs and a 25% tariff on heavy-duty trucks, effective from October 1, which could impact global drugmakers and manufacturers [1][4] - Companies like Paccar-owned Peterbilt and Kenworth, as well as Daimler Truck-owned Freightliner, may benefit from the tariffs on heavy-duty trucks [4] Group 2 - The Trump administration's trade deals with Japan, the EU, and the UK include provisions that cap tariffs for specific products, which may limit the impact of the new tariffs on certain sectors [3] - Global drugmakers are proactively increasing their U.S. manufacturing capacity and domestic inventory in response to the new tariffs [3] - The market is currently pricing in approximately 39 basis points of easing by December, reflecting a shift in expectations regarding U.S. interest rate cuts due to tariff-related inflation concerns [6]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China’s Economic Sentiment and Domestic Demand - **Date**: September 24, 2025 - **Source**: Morgan Stanley Asia Limited Core Insights 1. **Domestic Demand Cooling**: Domestic demand in China is slowing more than expected, attributed to a fading fiscal impulse and reduced effectiveness of consumer goods trade-in programs. The growth rate for Q3 GDP is projected at 4.5%[5][6][7] 2. **Exports Remain Firm**: Despite domestic demand cooling, exports are holding steady, with a year-over-year growth of 10.4% in container throughput as of the third week of September, largely due to a low base from adverse weather last year[4][5] 3. **Commodity Prices**: The anti-involution impulse is fading, leading to a short-lived rise in commodity prices. However, this increase may not be sustainable as rising costs for downstream firms may not be passed on to final demand[3][5] 4. **Policy Stance**: The Chinese government is expected to implement modest, targeted quasi-fiscal support rather than large-scale stimulus. This includes potential funding for infrastructure and settling local government payables[5][7] 5. **Cyclical Policy Measures**: Anticipated quasi-fiscal easing measures include Rmb500 billion in new policy-based financial instruments for local infrastructure investment and tapping into policy bank loans to help local governments settle payables, which could total Rmb5-10 trillion[7][5] 6. **Reform Discussions**: The Fourth Plenary Session is expected to discuss structural reforms related to cadre evaluations, tax systems, and social insurance systems, which are crucial for stabilizing inflation expectations and unlocking household savings[7][5] Additional Important Points 1. **Retail Growth Decline**: Retail growth in sectors such as autos and home appliances has cooled further in September, influenced by a high base effect and the diminishing impact of trade-in programs[6][20] 2. **Property Market**: Property sales and construction activities remain subdued, with year-over-year growth for housing sales expected to decline due to base effects[6][5] 3. **Container Throughput Divergence**: There is a notable divergence in performance between exports to the US and other regions, with US-bound shipments showing little change[4][12][14] 4. **High Frequency Data**: Recent high-frequency data indicates a negative sequential price momentum in major upstream sectors since mid-August, suggesting a potential downturn in commodity prices[3][8] This summary encapsulates the key insights and data points from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state of the Chinese economy and its implications for investment opportunities and risks.