Fiscal & Monetary Policy Analysis - 2020-2021: Easy fiscal policy combined with easy monetary policy created a "perfect storm" [1] - 2022-2024: Easy fiscal policy paired with tight monetary policy (Federal Reserve rate hikes) created unfavorable conditions [1] - Early 2025: Tight fiscal policy combined with tight monetary policy was very detrimental to risk assets [1] - Post April 2025: Fiscal printing continues, and easy monetary policy devalues the denominator, favoring long risk positions [1] Government & Trade Dynamics - There was a belief that the government would balance the budget with tighter fiscal policy [2] - High tariffs tightened global supply chains and reduced growth [2] - Trump pushed for monetary policy cuts [2] - Tariff de-escalation is occurring with a focus on deals [2] Investment Strategy - Avoid overtrading or getting liquidated on leverage [1] - Fiscal printing and easy monetary policy favor long risk positions [1]

The UK government has been forced to U-turn yet again on an unpopular policy, this time by its own members. Given all the talk of fiscal black holes less than a year ago, how will the chancellor make the sums add up now? https://t.co/B0tDoKXoL4 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Tariff uncertainty is significantly influencing the economic outlook, with a notable impact on inflation and fiscal policy [4][10][18] - The tariffs imposed are expected to show a clearer effect on core inflation data starting from July 2024, with projected increases in inflation rates across various countries [10][16] - The net effect of tariffs is anticipated to lift the Federal Funds rate, indicating a tightening of monetary policy [27][29] Summary by Sections Tariff Impact - The report outlines various tariffs imposed on sectors such as steel, aluminum, autos, and auto parts, detailing their base rates and exemptions [8] - The first-round impact of tariffs on US core PCE prices is estimated at 1.48%, with specific contributions from different tariff categories [16] Inflation Projections - Inflation rates are projected to rise, with the US experiencing a significant increase from 2.2% in January 2025 to 7.0% in April 2025, reflecting the impact of tariffs [10][29] - Core PCE inflation is expected to reach 3.3% in 2025, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [29] Fiscal Policy - US fiscal policy is described as net contractionary due to the impact of tariffs, with significant increases in the deficit projected from 2025 to 2034 [18][23] - The report highlights the expected fiscal deficits in the Eurozone, which are less than half of those in the US, suggesting a different fiscal landscape [76] Economic Growth - The report anticipates a modest growth in real GDP, with projections of 1.0% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026, reflecting the broader economic conditions influenced by tariffs [29] - Unemployment rates are expected to rise slightly, indicating potential labor market challenges [29] Market Sentiment - There is a noted shift in capital flows from the US to Europe, driven by changing investor sentiment and economic conditions [97][99] - Despite high policy uncertainty, European confidence indicators have not deteriorated as significantly as those in the US, suggesting a relative resilience in the Eurozone [35][70]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a modest impact on corporate earnings and cash flows from the budget reconciliation bill, estimating a boost of around 5% for the S&P 500 in the next year [1][2]. Core Insights - The budget reconciliation bill is expected to have only a modest effect on the US fiscal balance and corporate earnings, with potential earnings boosts diminishing in subsequent years [1][2]. - The ECB is anticipated to cut rates by 25 basis points, with growth forecasts remaining unchanged at 0.9% for this year and a slight decline for next year [11]. - The report highlights the potential for renewed interest in European equities due to the Section 899 provision of the reconciliation bill, which may create uncertainty for US investments [2][5]. Fiscal Policy Focus - The budget reconciliation bill is projected to have limited effects on migration and economic activity, particularly for high-earning households [5]. - Fiscal policy in China is expected to support growth, with an estimated boost of 1.1 percentage points to real GDP growth this year [6]. ECB Projections - The ECB's growth forecast for this year is expected to remain at 0.9%, with a slight decline in next year's forecast [11]. - Inflation projections are likely to be downgraded, with headline and core inflation expected to decline to 1.7% and 1.8% respectively for next year [11]. US Jobs Report - The report estimates a below-consensus increase of 110,000 in nonfarm payrolls for May, with an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.2% [16]. - Average hourly earnings are forecasted to increase by 0.3% month-over-month [16]. Steel and Aluminum Tariffs - The doubling of US steel and aluminum tariffs to 50% is expected to negatively impact US steel demand from the manufacturing sector [16]. - There is a potential risk of tariffs being imposed on copper imports, which is currently underpriced in the market [16].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **Global Macro Outlook**, focusing on **US Rates**, **International Rates**, **Commodities**, **Currencies**, and **Emerging Markets** [3][4][5][6]. Core Insights and Arguments US Rates - **Treasury Yield Forecast**: The forecast for 10-year Treasury yields has been revised upward to **4.35%** by year-end, from **4.00%** previously. The 2-year Treasury yield is now expected to end the year at **3.50%**, up from **3.10%** [7][15]. - **Impact of Fiscal Policy**: The budget reconciliation bill could raise the primary deficit by **$150 billion** from FY25-26, which is **0.4% of GDP**. This could be offset by an estimated **$100 billion to $200 billion** in tariff revenue [31][32]. International Rates - **European Rates**: The recommendation is to stay **overweight (OW)** on European rates despite ongoing challenges [45]. Commodities - **Oil Demand**: Global oil demand has softened, primarily due to a decline in US oil consumption. As of May 20, demand increased by **340,000 barrels per day (kbd)** but remains nearly **300 kbd** below projections [92]. - **Price Forecasts**: Price forecasts for natural gas in Northwest Europe have been lowered to **35 EUR/MWh** for 2Q25 and 3Q25, down from **40/45 EUR/MWh** [7][97]. Copper prices are expected to average **$9,225/mt** over 2H25, while aluminum prices are forecasted at **$2,325/mt** [100]. Currencies - **Weaker Dollar Strategy**: The strategic call remains for a weaker dollar following the US-China tariff de-escalation. The dollar's performance is expected to be influenced by data rather than policy [5][69][72]. - **USD/CNY Forecast**: The forecast for USD/CNY has been adjusted downward, with expectations of **7.20** in 2Q and **7.30** in 4Q [89]. Emerging Markets - **Sovereign and Corporate Ratings**: The recommendation is to stay **underweight (UW)** on EM sovereigns while moving EM corporates to **market weight (MW)** due to tariff reprieve [8][45]. Other Important Insights - **Market Positioning**: Investor positioning in the Treasury market is no longer as stretched to the long side, indicating that active investors have more scope to add duration [26]. - **Foreign Holdings**: Foreign investors own approximately **30%** of the Treasury market, predominantly in short-dated securities [37][40]. - **Moody's Downgrade Impact**: Following Moody's downgrade of US debt, risks are skewed towards a bearish steepening in the near term, with expectations of higher interest expenses [32][36]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the macroeconomic landscape, commodity forecasts, currency strategies, and emerging market dynamics.