Core Insights - 2026 is expected to potentially set new records for gold prices, driven by increasing global uncertainty and investor demand for gold as a safe haven [1][3] - Gold futures recently peaked at nearly $4,990 per troy ounce, indicating strong market interest [1] - The Goldman Sachs Physical Gold ETF (AAAU) has shown a remarkable return of 78.1% over the past year, outperforming its category averages over three and five-year periods [1][2] Company Insights - AAAU's net asset value (NAV) is based on the LBMA PM Gold Price, which is updated twice daily through an independent auction [2] - Since its acquisition by Goldman Sachs in 2020, AAAU has increased its assets under management (AUM) by approximately $2.5 billion [2] Industry Insights - Geopolitical risks, including tensions over Greenland and concerns about U.S. Treasury holdings, are significant factors contributing to the rising gold prices [3] - The declining dollar, challenges to Federal Reserve independence, and increasing U.S. debt levels are also fueling investor interest in gold [3] - AAAU is positioned as a standout gold ETF due to its lower costs, efficient operations, and ease of trading, making it an attractive option for investors seeking stability and growth [4]

>> U.S. MARKETS OF THE DEEPEST AND MOST LIQUID MARKETS. >> STILL SEE A LOT OF UPSIDE OPPORTUNITY IN U.S. MARKETS. >> THE U.S. HAS BEEN A STRONGLY-PERFORMING MARKET.>> WE CONTINUE TO BE POSITIVE ON THE U.S. >> THIS IS "BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE." >> GOOD FRIDAY MORNING. GEOPOLITICAL WHIPLASH FINALLY COMES TO A U.S. BENCHMARK STRUGGLES TO HOLD ONTO A MIDWEEK REBOUND, SEPARATES FIRST BACK-TO-BACK WEEKLY LOSS SINCE LAST SUMMER. ADD TO THAT, THE DOLLAR'S WORST RUN IN SEVEN MONTHS AND A TREASURY SELLOFF.OUR GEOPOLIT ...

Core Insights - Major Northern European investors are increasingly cautious about the risks associated with holding U.S. assets due to rising geopolitical tensions, indicating a significant shift away from the U.S. financial market [1] Group 1 - The sentiment among pension chiefs reflects a growing wariness towards U.S. investments [1] - This trend suggests a broader movement among investors to reassess their exposure to the world's largest financial market [1]

Group 1 - The core logic of the oil market this week revolves around two main lines: the International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its global oil demand growth forecast, providing support for sentiment, while supply expansion and continuous inventory accumulation still exert substantial pressure on oil prices [1] - The IEA has adjusted its global oil demand growth forecast for this year from 860,000 barrels per day to 930,000 barrels per day, slightly higher than last year's increase of 850,000 barrels per day, reflecting a slight improvement in the global economic outlook [1] - In contrast to the improvement in demand, the supply side remains loose, with the IEA raising its global oil supply growth forecast to approximately 2.5 million barrels per day, significantly exceeding the demand increase, indicating that the global oil market is still in a "supply outpacing demand" state [1] Group 2 - OPEC+ is expected to add about 1.2 million barrels per day in supply for the year, while non-OPEC+ countries are projected to add approximately 1.3 million barrels per day, with supply expansion outside of OPEC+ remaining a significant variable for the mid-term oil market [1] - Recent inventory data reinforces the "supply exceeds demand" judgment, with the American Petroleum Institute (API) reporting an increase of about 3 million barrels in U.S. crude oil inventories last week, indicating persistent supply-side pressure [1] - On the technical side, WTI crude oil has broken out of a medium-term downward channel, with key support established in the $58.8–$59.0 range, and the price is expected to test the $62.0–$62.5 resistance zone [3]

Core Insights - The article discusses the implications of U.S. foreign policy changes, particularly under the Trump administration, on investment strategies, emphasizing the need for diversification and reassessment of investment portfolios [1][4]. Group 1: Diversification - Many investors may not realize their exposure to a few corporations due to overlapping holdings in multiple index funds, such as the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Russell 1000, with companies like Apple (AAPL) being a significant part of each index [2]. - The interconnected supply chains of mega-cap companies, exemplified by Apple's reliance on parts from Taiwan and China, highlight the risks posed by geopolitical tensions, such as a potential conflict between China and Taiwan, which could severely impact stock performance [3]. Group 2: Geopolitical Risks - The capture of Maduro in Venezuela is seen as part of broader geopolitical tensions, including issues involving China, Taiwan, Russia, and Ukraine, which could lead to increased unpredictability in U.S. foreign policy and added investment risks [4]. - The unpredictability of the current administration's foreign policy actions may lead to heightened geopolitical risks for investors [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investors are encouraged to consider increasing their allocation to international stocks, as evidenced by the performance of the STOXX Europe 600, which returned 19.0% compared to the S&P 500's 16.4% in 2025 [5]. - Establishing an Investment Policy Statement (IPS) is recommended for all investors to outline their return objectives, risk tolerance, and other constraints, ensuring a structured approach to investment [6].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market has experienced an unexpected strong rally since the beginning of 2026, with gold prices reaching historical highs due to various stimulating factors, including geopolitical tensions and monetary policy shifts [2][6]. Group 1: Gold Price Movements - International gold prices surged from $4,340 per ounce at the beginning of January to a peak of $4,891.1 per ounce by January 21, marking a cumulative increase of 12.7% in less than 20 days [2]. - Domestic gold futures also saw significant gains, with the main contract price rising by 4.61% to surpass 1,100 yuan per gram [3]. Group 2: Stock Market Reactions - Gold stocks experienced a surge, with over ten gold-related stocks hitting the daily limit up, including Zhaojin Mining and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining [4]. - The gold ETF (159562) rose by 5.73% on the day, accumulating a 25.82% increase over the first 13 trading days of the year, reaching a new historical net value high [4]. Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - The recent escalation of geopolitical conflicts has driven significant inflows into gold as a safe-haven asset, with the U.S. imposing tariffs on several countries, further straining transatlantic trade relations [7][8]. - Denmark's decision to sell approximately $1 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds amid the Greenland dispute marked a significant move, reflecting growing concerns over U.S. debt and geopolitical tensions [9]. Group 4: Central Bank Actions - Global central banks have been on a gold-buying spree, with net purchases reaching 1,136 tons in 2024, the second-highest on record, and major buyers including China, Poland, and Turkey [11]. - China's central bank has increased its gold reserves significantly, with a total of 2,306.32 tons by the end of 2025, marking a historical high in the proportion of gold in its foreign exchange reserves [11]. Group 5: Market Sentiment and Predictions - Analysts have raised their gold price targets, with Goldman Sachs predicting a price of $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, driven by central bank purchases and anticipated interest rate cuts [21]. - Other institutions, such as UBS and Citigroup, have set even higher targets, with Citigroup suggesting a potential short-term price of $5,000 per ounce [21][22]. Group 6: Investment Trends - The demand for gold bars and coins increased by 18% in 2025, reaching 1,250 tons, with significant contributions from China [16]. - The global gold ETF market saw a record net inflow of $89 billion in 2025, with total holdings reaching 4,025 tons, marking a historical peak [16]. Group 7: Strategic Value of Gold - The strategic value of gold is being redefined, transitioning from an optional asset to a necessary component in high-uncertainty markets, as recognized by various market participants [22]. - The gold ETF (159562) has become a popular investment tool, with significant inflows and a focus on gold mining companies, reflecting the growing interest in gold as a strategic asset [23].

Group 1: Gold Market - Gold prices have surged significantly, climbing 9% in the first three weeks of 2026 and a remarkable 75% over the past 12 months, signaling fiscal stress, currency debasement, and heightened geopolitical risk [2][11]. Group 2: Corporate Developments - Novartis (NVS) CEO Narasimhan revealed the pharmaceutical giant is pursuing more biotech deals with China than with Europe and has secured an agreement with the U.S. government that shields it from tariffs [3][11]. Group 3: Energy Sector - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts years of downward pressure on oil and gas prices due to persistent supply, indicating a challenging outlook for energy markets [4][11]. Group 4: Cryptocurrency Market - Major cryptocurrency assets experienced a downturn, with Coinbase Global (COIN) falling 4.4%, Bitfarms (BITF) down 7.5%, and MicroStrategy (MSTR) declining 5.5% [5][11]. Group 5: Investor Confidence - Despite renewed Trump tariff threats, ZEW German Investor Morale is anticipated to improve for a second consecutive month, even as the EU-US trade war intensifies [6][11].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The report discusses the commodities market, focusing on metals and oil, highlighting geopolitical influences and market dynamics [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Geopolitical Impact**: Political news, including the US DOJ Fed probe and President Trump's tariff announcement, has significantly influenced market movements, particularly boosting precious metals like Silver, which saw an increase of 11.6% [1]. - **Earnings Season**: The US Q4 earnings season has shown solid results from US banks, which has supported a higher risk appetite among investors [1]. - **Inflation Data**: The US core CPI came in below consensus at +0.24% month-over-month and +2.64% year-over-year, marking the lowest reading since March 2021 [1]. - **Oil Market Trends**: Oil prices are in a downtrend due to excess supply, with forecasts suggesting Brent and WTI prices may trend down to $56 and $52 per barrel, respectively [6]. The correlation between oil and the Dollar is currently very positive, as the US is now a net oil exporter [2][12]. - **Metals Performance**: Precious metals, particularly Gold and Silver, are preferred over energy commodities due to their better pricing of geopolitical risks. The report indicates a positive skew for Gold driven by policy easing and rising demand from emerging market central banks [3][19]. - **Emerging Markets**: Emerging market equities and materials stocks have shown significant returns, with MSCI EM and EM materials stocks delivering the largest returns last week [2]. Additional Important Insights - **Investor Behavior**: There is a trend of investors reducing US asset dominance in their portfolios, which has led to increased support for Gold and other precious metals [2]. - **Copper Market**: Copper prices have rallied due to speculative inflows but retraced after the deferral of Section 232 tariffs [2]. - **Currency Movements**: Currencies of metal-producing countries have strengthened against the USD, indicating a favorable environment for these currencies [2][14]. - **Market Sentiment**: The report maintains a modestly pro-risk stance into 2026, suggesting that while commodities are viewed neutrally, their diversification potential against geopolitical risks is acknowledged [3]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call, providing insights into the current state of the commodities market, particularly focusing on metals and oil, and the broader economic implications.

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a strong performance in gold stocks, driven by rising gold and silver prices due to geopolitical tensions and tariff threats from Trump, leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Sichuan Gold and Zhaojin Gold both hit the daily limit, while Shanjin International rose over 6%, and both Zhongjin Gold and Western Gold increased by over 4% [1] - The total market capitalization of Sichuan Gold is 15.8 billion, with a year-to-date increase of 35.14% [2] - Zhaojin Gold has a total market capitalization of 14.8 billion, with a year-to-date increase of 21.75% [2] - Shanjin International has a total market capitalization of 82.6 billion, with a year-to-date increase of 22.32% [2] - Zhongjin Gold has a total market capitalization of 130.3 billion, with a year-to-date increase of 15.07% [2] - Western Gold has a total market capitalization of 28 billion, with a year-to-date increase of 15.25% [2] Group 2: Gold and Silver Prices - Spot gold reached a new historical high of 4,690 USD per ounce during trading [1] - Spot silver also hit a historical high of 94.15 USD per ounce [1] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Analysts indicate that geopolitical issues, particularly the situation in Iran, are causing short-term uncertainty among global investors, which is likely to sustain the current interest in gold [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term, with weakened macro - level driving factors, precious metal prices are expected to fluctuate weakly at high levels and price volatility may remain high. However, due to uncertainties such as the Iran geopolitical situation and tight silver spot, prices are difficult to decline continuously. Long - term, the upward logic of precious metals remains unchanged, and the strategy is to buy on dips or sell slightly out - of - the - money put options [3]. - Medium - to - long - term, the Fed is still in an easing cycle, global geopolitical uncertainties will continue, and the credit risk of the US dollar will increase. The allocation demand of global central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue, so the medium - to - long - term center of gold prices will likely move up. Long - term investors are advised to buy on dips [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Data - On January 16, 2026, compared with January 15, 2026, London gold spot decreased by 0.2% to $4597.99 per ounce, London silver spot increased by 0.9% to $90.51 per ounce, COMEX gold decreased by 0.2% to $4601.50 per ounce, COMEX silver increased by 1.1% to $90.32 per ounce, AU2602 decreased by 0.3% to 1032.32 yuan per gram, AG2602 decreased by 0.7% to 22555 yuan per kilogram, AU (T + D) decreased by 0.2% to 1030.20 yuan per gram, and AG (T + D) decreased by 0.5% to 22541 yuan per kilogram [3]. - Regarding price spreads, on January 16, 2026, compared with January 15, 2026, the gold TD - SHFE active price spread increased by - 28.9% to - 2.12 yuan per gram, the silver TD - SHFE active price spread increased by - 77.8% to - 14 yuan per kilogram, etc. [3]. 2. Position Data - On January 16, 2026, compared with January 15, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR increased by 1.01% to 1085.67 tons, the silver ETF - SLV increased by 0.07% to 16073.05851 tons. COMEX gold non - commercial long positions increased by 7.92% to 296183 contracts, non - commercial short positions decreased by 3.97% to 44945 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions increased by 10.37% to 251238 contracts. COMEX silver non - commercial long positions decreased by 0.10% to 47337 contracts, non - commercial short positions decreased by 15.66% to 15277 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions increased by 9.53% to 32060 contracts [3]. 3. Inventory Data - On January 16, 2026, compared with January 15, 2026, SHFE gold inventory decreased by 0.10% to 100053 kilograms, SHFE silver inventory decreased by 1.81% to 626843 kilograms. COMEX gold inventory increased by 0.01% to 36135901 troy ounces, COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.98% to 429156441 troy ounces [3]. 4. Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market Data - On January 16, 2026, compared with January 15, 2026, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate increased by 0.02% to 7.01, the US dollar index increased by 0.03% to 99.37, the 2 - year US Treasury yield increased by 0.84% to 3.59%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield increased by 1.68% to 4.24%, the VIX increased by 0.13% to 15.86, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.06% to 6940.01, and NYMEX crude oil increased by 0.08% to 59.22 [3]. 5. Market Review and Influencing Factors - On January 16, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.31% to 1032.32 yuan per gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 1.26% to 22483 yuan per kilogram [3]. - The sharp adjustment of precious metal prices in the night session last Friday was due to: the cooling of the Iran situation reducing safe - haven demand; the change of the most likely Fed chair candidate hitting market rate - cut expectations; the suspension of new tariffs on critical minerals imports easing silver's tariff risk; and the Shanghai Futures Exchange's risk - control measures on silver [3].