I don't know what you think the probability is of Iran actually doing what they threatened to many times before and never have done choking off the strait entirely. But do they have potentially just as disruptive secondary options available to them. When we think about all of the energy infrastructure in this region.Great. Yeah, no, thank you. It's great to be with you.I think Iran will be very cautious and careful about attempting to fully disrupt the 18 to 20 million barrels a day of oil, 20% of traded LN ...

are finding ways to mitigate some of the impact on consumers. >> Let's get reaction from our guest, Charles Schwab senior investment strategist Kevin Gordon. Kevin, good to have you here.So you heard Daly saying things look good. Now, you've also talked in the past about the impact policy uncertainty is having on business confidence. How do you see that playing out in the markets for the rest of the summer.>> Yeah. Well, so far I mean the uncertainty has been more on the, you know, survey based side of thin ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report The medium- to long-term trend of precious metals is expected to be bullish. In the short term, with the need to wait for interest rate cuts, no escalation of geopolitical risks, and trade tariff negotiations not entering a sensitive period, the overall market is expected to remain in a high-level oscillation. Short-term corrections are regarded as medium- to long-term buying opportunities [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Conditions - On Thursday, the precious metals market showed gold oscillation and silver adjustment. The COMEX gold 2508 contract closed at $3387.4 per ounce, down 0.61%; the US silver 2507 contract closed at $36.36 per ounce, down 1.5%. The SHFE gold 2508 main contract closed at 781.24 yuan per gram, down 0.49%; the SHFE silver 2508 contract closed at 8819 yuan per kilogram, down 1.91% [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 89.7%, and the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut is 10.3%. For September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 31.7%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut is 61.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point cut is 6.7%. In October, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 15.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25-basis-point cut is 46.3%, the probability of a cumulative 50-basis-point cut is 34.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 75-basis-point cut is 3.4% [3]. - In the long term, the SPDR Gold ETF holdings remained at 947.37 tons, and the iShares Silver ETF holdings remained at 14763 tons. The SHFE silver inventory increased by 14 tons to 1243 tons daily, and the SGX silver inventory increased by 59.6 tons to 1378.9 tons in the week ending June 13 [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - The Bank of England's interest rate meeting on Thursday kept the benchmark interest rate at 4.25% unchanged, but the divergence among voting members increased [4]. 3.4 Precious Metals Price and Inventory Data - **Price Data**: The SHFE gold main contract closed at 781.24 yuan per gram, down 4.18 yuan or 0.53%; the SGX gold TD closed at 777.44 yuan per gram, down 4.2 yuan or 0.54%; the CME gold main contract closed at $3387.4 per ounce, up $1 or 0.03%. The SHFE silver main contract closed at 8819 yuan per kilogram, down 226 yuan or 2.5%; the SGX silver TD closed at 8777 yuan per kilogram, down 212 yuan or 2.36%; the CME silver main contract closed at $36.76 per ounce, down $0.42 or 1.13% [4][5]. - **Inventory and Position Data**: The SHFE gold inventory was 18168 kilograms, unchanged; the CME gold inventory was 1175.2202 tons, down 0.009 tons; the SHFE gold position was 161031 lots, down 1390 lots or 0.86%; the SPDR gold position was 947.37 tons, up 1.43 tons or 0.15%. The SHFE silver inventory was 1242.994 tons, up 13.962 tons or 1.14%; the CME silver inventory was 15419.0964 tons, down 26.3768 tons or 0.17%; the SGX silver inventory was 1378.875 tons, up 59.55 tons or 4.51%; the SHFE silver position was 387527 lots, down 58454 lots or 13.11%; the SLV silver position was 14763.000528 tons, up 87.6368 tons or 0.6% [13]. 3.5 Other Market Data - The US dollar index was 98.7857, down 0.066 or 0.07%; the US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.19, down 0.002 or 0.03%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average was 42171.66 points, down 44.14 points or 0.1%; WTI crude oil spot was $75.6 per barrel, up $0.46 or 0.61%; LmeS copper 03 was $9619.5 per ton, down $31 or 0.32%; the 10-year US Treasury yield was 4.38%, down 0.01% or 0.23%; the 10-year US real interest rate was 2.07%, down 0.01% or 0.48%; the 10 - 2-year US Treasury yield spread was 0.44%, down 0.01% or 2.22% [17].

Joining me now is Matt Stucky. He's the chief portfolio manager for equities at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management. And Matt, you know, markets seem to be taking a breather today after yesterday's bounceback.How do you think investors are processing the latest risks here. Not just tariffs and inflation, but now that escalating geopolitical headwinds are on the table, that's another risk that we're going to have to deal with. Well, good morning, Ally.Thanks for having me back. Um yeah, there is no shortag ...

Market Vulnerability & Risks - Market is looking vulnerable due to elevated valuations and limited capacity to absorb uncertainty [1][2] - Multiple risks are on the horizon, including tariffs, fiscal uncertainty, and the debt ceiling [3] - Poor economic growth in May indicates a downtick in growth momentum [3] Geopolitical Impact & Oil Prices - Geopolitical situation creates suspense, but oil prices are not acting particularly alarmed, remaining below Friday's highs [4] - Markets have generally absorbed geopolitical uncertainty well in the past, including conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East, and between India and Pakistan [6] - Oil is considered the transmission mechanism for geopolitical issues to become broader macro problems [6] Treasury Yields & Economic Data - Inability of treasuries to spike higher despite geopolitical anxiety and weak economic data (missed retail sales, industrial production, and NHP housing survey) is notable [5] - Upward pressure on yields is attributed to fiscal imbalances and inflationary implications of tariffs [5] Labor Market & Fed Policy - Deteriorating jobless claims, especially continuing jobless claims, are a red flag indicating softness in the labor economy [7][8] - May data points to a downtick in growth momentum [7] - Fed is expected to maintain a relatively status quo outlook, seeing risks to both sides of its mandate [9] - The 2015 DO (likely referring to a member of the Federal Open Market Committee) potentially going from two to one (likely referring to a change in their dot plot projection) [10]

It's time now for today's strategy session. Riskoff sentiment gripping today's trading action as stocks open in the red, but market momentum holding up some stocks trading near record highs. Can the market continue its rally despite a growing wall of worry for investors.Joining us now, we've got Kenny Pulkari, who is the Slate Stone Wealth chief market strategist. Kenny, one of the things that you and I were talking about in the break and and perhaps is within that wall of worry to a certain extent is the r ...

Geopolitical Risk and Market Sentiment - Investor sentiment is a key factor influencing market reactions, with oil prices and defense stocks showing sensitivity to Middle East developments [1][2] - Market reactions to geopolitical news have become more subtle compared to previous months, indicating a shift from emotional responses to a "buy the news" mentality [2] - Defense stocks, such as RTX, Northrop Grumman, and Halliburton, experienced pre-market gains, suggesting a defensive trade strategy among investors amid geopolitical uncertainty [3][4] - The recent surge in defense stocks is viewed as a knee-jerk reaction to news, with historical trends indicating that such moves may not have long-term impacts [5][6] - Secular trends support defense stocks due to increased defense spending discussions in DC and NATO, but short-term movements are often knee-jerk reactions [7] Tech Sector Performance - The XLK tech ETF, heavily weighted by mega-cap tech companies like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple, hit all-time highs, with some components like IBM and Palantir also reaching new highs [8] - Investors tend to gravitate towards tech during technical rallies, viewing it as a defensive sector that performs well in both good and bad times [8][9] - Valuations in the tech sector are extended compared to value sectors and international markets, suggesting a need to consider fundamentals [9] Dollar Weakness and Earnings - A weaker dollar benefits multinational companies' earnings through translation effects and competitive advantages [11][12][13] - Small-cap companies with a domestic focus may not benefit as much from a weaker dollar [11] - The reasons behind dollar weakness are more important than the weakness itself; government actions like selling treasuries or punitive tariffs could negatively impact the dollar [14][15] - A slight dollar weakness from elevated levels can be beneficial for earnings and reflect a leveling out of domestic and foreign earnings [15]

Market Volatility & Geopolitical Landscape - The market is experiencing volatility due to recent geopolitical developments, particularly the conflict in the Middle East, but not as significantly as the tariff impacts earlier in the year [2] - Investors and advisors are becoming more accustomed to increased volatility [3] - Increased interest in fixed income ETFs, especially short-term ones, is observed as investors seek income with lower risk [3] - Broadly diversified ETFs, like the Vanguard 500 ETF, are attracting inflows, indicating investors are using sell-offs as buying opportunities [3][4] Tech Investment & Safe Haven Status - Tech is heavily weighted in broadly diversified large-cap ETFs, suggesting many investors include tech and AI as part of a broader portfolio [5] - Technology was considered a safe haven during the COVID selloff in 2020 [6] - Investors are now showing interest in more traditional defensive sectors like utilities and consumer staples [7] - Large-cap tech is still seen as a relative safe haven, but investors also seek diversification with traditional defensive sectors [7] AI Revolution & Tech Valuation - Focusing solely on valuation can lead to missing transformational tech stocks [9] - The market is believed to be underestimating the growth potential of the AI revolution in tech [9] - Geopolitical events are viewed as opportunities to acquire tech stocks at lower prices [9]

Well, for more on how all of this could impact the markets going forward, let's bring in Wilmington Trust investment advisors Tony Roth and innovator ETS chief investment strategist Tim Urbanowitz. Guys, good afternoon. Uh Tim, major averages have been holding steady despite uh this geopolitical conflict.S&P around 6,000. I know folks don't want to panic sell, but should they keep buying here. Well, John, you definitely don't want to panic sell.And really the the move higher that we saw today is really text ...

Oil Price Scenarios - In an extreme scenario involving a complete disruption to Iranian oil supply and closure of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices could temporarily rise above $200 per barrel [2] - The industry's base case suggests a risk premium pushing Brent crude prices into the low $80s [4] - A scenario involving Israeli attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure could push prices towards $100, reflecting further risk premium due to actual supply disruptions [5] Geopolitical Risk and Market Dynamics - The market's direction in the next two weeks depends on whether there is de-escalation, potentially with US diplomatic involvement, or escalation involving attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure [5] - A de-escalation scenario could lead to a decay of the risk premium over time, similar to other geopolitical risk events where initial spikes subside without significant supply disruptions [5][6] - The sustainability of extreme oil price increases is questionable, even if they occur temporarily [2][3]