U.S. Labor market is weakening.Inflation is stable.Rate cuts are on their way.Trillions will enter crypto! https://t.co/0mru5w2J0Q ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential of the ALPS Medical Breakthroughs ETF (SBIO) as a strong investment option in the biotech sector, particularly in light of anticipated rate cuts that could benefit tech and biotech firms [1][6]. ETF Performance - The SBIO ETF charges a fee of 50 basis points and tracks a market cap-weighted index of biotech firms with drugs in Phase II or III clinical trials, focusing on companies with at least $200 million in AUM and up to $5 billion [2]. - SBIO has returned 16% over the last three months, outperforming its ETF Database Category average of 6.4% and FactSet Segment average of 7.4% [2]. Technical Indicators - The fund's price has surpassed both its 50 and 200-day simple moving averages, indicating healthy momentum and a potential buy signal [3]. Notable Holdings - Merus (MRUS) has shown significant performance, returning 59.6% year-to-date (YTD) as of September 11, focusing on clinical stage immuno-oncology [4]. - Akero Therapeutics (AKRO) has returned 55.4% YTD, developing treatments for serious metabolic diseases [5]. - Acadia Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (ACAD) has achieved a 29.7% return YTD, specializing in drugs for central nervous system disorders [5]. Market Environment - Rate cuts could facilitate borrowing for biotech firms while awaiting drug revenue, and may also ease M&A activity targeting these companies, making the biotech ETF a noteworthy investment in a lowering rate environment [6].

Core Inflation Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has shown the largest month-on-month and year-on-year increase since January, with a year-over-year increase of 2.9% compared to 2.7% in July [1][2] - Core commodities have shifted from being a negative drag on CPI to a positive contributor, likely due to tariff effects, while core services remain sticky at 3.6% [6][10] Labor Market Concerns - There is a notable spike in jobless claims, which may be partly seasonal, with claims rising from 236,000 to 263,000, including a significant increase in Texas [4][2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to prioritize labor market concerns over inflation data, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [7][9] Market Expectations - Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts remain high, with a 100% chance of a rate cut in September and 92% in October, reflecting confidence in three rate cuts this year [5][9] - Economists express skepticism about the inflation report, indicating that the current inflation dynamics may not align with their expectations for a stable economic environment [6][10]

US equity futures have a slight bid into today's CPI print - the last key macro datapoint ahead of next week's rate decision - rising to another daily record high, let by Tech. As of 8:10am, S&P futures rise 0.2% after back-to-back all-time highs while Nasdaq 100 futures rise 0.3% with AAPL and AMZN leading the Mag7 higher and ORCL +1.4% after its +36% move yesterday. In a familiar pattern this week, Cyclicals are outperforming Defensives pre-mkt. European stocks also drifted higher while Chinese stocks cap ...

Group 1 - The current Consumer Price Index (CPI) is at 2.9%, which is above the Federal Reserve's target of 2% [2][3] - Inflation is expected to continue accelerating due to higher tariffs and immigration policies affecting labor markets [3] - The job market is experiencing stagnation, with flat job growth, which may lead to interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4][10] Group 2 - If CPI comes in lower than expected, it could open the door for a 50 basis point rate cut, which the market may react positively to [6][7] - The bond market is closely monitored by the Federal Reserve as it reflects investor sentiment regarding future monetary policy [9] - There is a possibility of six rate cuts priced in by the end of 2026, reflecting concerns about job market weakness and persistent inflation [11][12]

All right, so estimates 2.9% headline. I know Jay Pal said 2.9% was fine for PCE. Is 2.9% okay for CPI knowing that we have this Fed meeting coming up just uh less than a week, just about 6 days away.And if it comes in in line or lower, what do you think that means for the market. Well, tough questions, right. A lot of questions.Uh 2.9%'s above the Fed's target. I mean, the CPI runs about a half a point above the consumer expenditure deflator, which is what the Fed targets, and that's the 2% target. So if y ...

Welcome back to Market on Close. It's time for options Corner. So, we'll welcome in our friend Kevin Green joining us with the levels that he's watching as we head into the close today.You know, Kevin, what are you keeping a close eye on. We've got uh S&P still up, but everybody else down. Yeah, we did see a little bit of a round trip today, Marley, when it comes to the market.Actually earlier this morning we talked about the 655 as a potential area of resistance and we pretty much hit that on the nose and ...

Market Outlook - Current market sentiment reflects a "Goldilocks scenario" where investors expect no compression in corporate margins, contained inflation, and a softening labor market allowing for rate cuts without recession [1] - The belief that earnings growth will remain strong as the Fed cuts rates is viewed as overly optimistic, with historical evidence suggesting significant risks associated with such a scenario [1][2] Economic Indicators - Historical patterns indicate that the Fed typically cuts rates during profit slowdowns, often leading to initial market declines before recovery [2] - Analysts tend to overestimate earnings during slowdowns, which is expected to be the case again, indicating stress in the market rather than a bull market [3] Investment Strategy - In light of the low probability of a favorable economic outcome, the recommendation is to focus on high-quality, dividend-paying equities, enhance regional diversification, and avoid corporate credit exposure [4]

Core Viewpoint - Deutsche Bank has raised its target from 6,550 to 7,000, returning to its original forecast for the year, which is now the second highest target on the market [1]. Market Impact and Economic Factors - The market experienced a significant shock due to tariffs, prompting a reevaluation of various economic factors, including the economy and Federal Reserve policies [2]. - Despite initial negative expectations regarding tariffs, their impact on growth and inflation has been minimal, with earnings growth actually increasing in the second quarter [3]. - Companies have indicated that while the tariffs are a shock, they are manageable, leading to a return to the 7,000 target [4]. Market Positioning and Investor Sentiment - The market is currently at new highs, suggesting that many investors have entered the market, leading to an overweight position [5]. - Systematic strategies have contributed to the market being overweight, while discretionary investors have maintained a neutral position for the past two months, indicating potential upside [6]. Earnings and Buybacks - The combination of market positioning, potential inflows, and buybacks supports the argument for an 8% increase, aligning with the 7,000 target [6]. - If earnings remain stable, buybacks are expected to continue, further supporting market growth [6]. Interest Rates and Market Dynamics - The impact of potential rate cuts is under discussion, with considerations on whether cuts of 50 or 75 basis points by year-end will significantly affect the market [7]. - Current pricing in the market reflects expectations around rates, with medium to long-term rates being more influential than short-term rates [8]. - Near-term rate changes are viewed as less critical unless they deliver a significant surprise [9].

Core Insights - Rocket Companies is positioned to benefit from declining mortgage rates, with strong refinancing market share and strategic acquisitions driving growth in volume and profitability [1] - Bank of America Securities upgraded Rocket Companies to Buy, raising the price target to $24, indicating a 17% upside potential [2] Group 1: Market Position and Growth Potential - Rocket holds approximately 10% of the refinancing market, which is expected to grow as mortgage rates decrease [3] - The acquisition of Mr. Cooper is projected to generate $500 million in synergies, including $400 million in cost savings and $100 million in revenue increases [4] - The recently completed acquisition of Redfin is anticipated to contribute an additional $200 million in synergies [4] Group 2: Financial Performance and Forecasts - Rocket reported Q2 earnings of $0.04 per share on revenues of $1.34 billion, exceeding market expectations [6] - The company forecasts Q3 revenue between $1.60 billion and $1.75 billion, surpassing the market estimate of $1.50 billion [6] - Bank of America raised its 2026 EPS forecast for Rocket by 11% to $1.02, reflecting confidence in the company's growth trajectory [3]