Core Insights - The article highlights that stocks and bonds are expected to respond to new data regarding job openings, wages, and perceptions of the labor market [1] Group 1: Job Openings - New data on job openings will influence market reactions, indicating potential shifts in employment trends [1] Group 2: Wages - Information on wages is crucial as it reflects the purchasing power of consumers and can impact inflation expectations [1] Group 3: Labor Market Perceptions - Perceptions of the labor market will also play a significant role in shaping investor sentiment and market dynamics [1]

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller recently discussed the economic outlook with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, amid speculation about his potential nomination as the next Fed chair [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Outlook and Fed Chair Speculation - Waller emphasized that his discussions with the administration have focused solely on economic matters and have not been political in nature [1]. - He believes that the selection process for the new Fed chair is looking for candidates with merit, experience, and a strong understanding of the role [4]. - Waller is considered a leading candidate among Trump's potential picks to succeed Jerome Powell, who is set to complete his term in May 2026 [6][9]. Group 2: Interest Rate Policy - Waller has consistently advocated for interest rate cuts, aligning with President Trump's demands for more aggressive monetary policy [10]. - He pointed to a slowdown in consumer spending and improvements in the job market as justifications for rate cuts [10]. - Waller suggested that the Federal Reserve should consider the temporary effects of tariffs on inflation rates, indicating a need for a forward-looking approach to monetary policy [10].

Market Overview - The market dynamics have shifted, with algorithmic trading dominating, leading to unpredictable selling patterns that disregard traditional holiday trends [2][3] - Investors are facing a lack of reliable data due to the government shutdown, impacting decision-making [3] Economic Indicators - The delayed September retail sales report is anticipated to be weak, which could increase the likelihood of interest rate cuts [3] - A soft retail sales report could lead to rising bond prices and falling yields, unless countered by a significant increase in the producer price index [4] - Housing turnover is at its lowest in 40 years, negatively affecting various industries reliant on housing sales [4] Company Insights Deere & Company (NYSE: DE) - Deere is viewed positively due to government support for farmers during tough times, which can lead to increased sales of farm equipment [9] - The company is expected to be resilient, but investors are advised to wait for the quarterly results before making purchases [9] Burlington Stores, Inc. (NYSE: BURL) - Burlington is considered the weakest among its peers in the off-price retail sector, with recent performance lagging behind competitors [10] - The company reported a 2.5% comparable sales growth in the first half, with a notable difference in growth rates between the first and second quarters [10][11] - Management's cautious guidance for the second half of the year reflects concerns over weather-related sales impacts, particularly in outerwear [11][13] - The stock trades at a higher valuation compared to its peers, with a PEG ratio of 1.4, and recent buyback activity has been limited [11][12]

Group 1: Nvidia Earnings and Market Reaction - Nvidia reported strong earnings with a 66% growth in data center revenue, exceeding expectations [4][5] - Despite initial gains, Nvidia's shares finished lower, reflecting market concerns about the economic situation and potential AI bubble [5] - The Bitcoin market is experiencing a downturn, with Bitcoin dropping below $83,000, marking a 33% decline from its peak [6] Group 2: Retail Earnings Overview - Home Depot's shares fell 6% after missing earnings expectations and cutting guidance due to a cautious outlook on consumer spending and a soft housing market [8] - Lowe's initially dropped in sympathy with Home Depot but later rebounded after beating earnings expectations, although it remains cautious about the economic environment [9][10] - Walmart's shares rose 6% following strong earnings driven by e-commerce and international sales, while Target's shares declined due to a third consecutive quarter of declining comparable store sales, down 2.7% [11][12][13] Group 3: Fintech and Consumer Lending Sector - The buy now pay later fintech sector is under pressure, with Klarna reporting a loss and a significant increase in provisions for credit losses, leading to a 16% decline in its stock [14][15] - Competitors like Affirm and SoFi also saw declines of 13% and 10% respectively, indicating concerns about consumer delinquencies [15][16] Group 4: Economic Data and Job Market - September jobs data showed an addition of 119,000 jobs, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.4%, primarily due to more people re-entering the job market [17][18] - Revisions to previous months' job data raised recession concerns, with August now showing a loss of 4,000 jobs [18][19] Group 5: Tariff Rollbacks and Federal Reserve Signals - Recent tariff rollbacks are seen as a response to economic pressures, with the Fed's stance on potential rate cuts becoming increasingly mixed [21][25] - Market expectations for December rate cuts have fluctuated significantly, reflecting uncertainty in economic conditions [25][27] Group 6: Upcoming Economic Events - The upcoming Thanksgiving week is expected to bring lower market volume and potential volatility, with a flood of economic data and earnings reports anticipated [28][29] - Black Friday will provide crucial insights into consumer spending behavior and retailer performance as the holiday season approaches [33][34]

Economic Overview - The economy is currently experiencing strong growth, with the Atlanta Fed estimating GDP at 4% [3] - Despite positive economic indicators, investor sentiment is dominated by recession fears, leading to a disconnect between market performance and investor behavior [2][3] Interest Rates and REITs - Historical trends indicate that rate cuts typically lead to bull markets for Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) [4][5] - The current economic environment, characterized by growth rather than contraction, suggests that the upcoming rate cut cycle could be particularly beneficial for REITs [5] Mortgage REITs (mREITs) Performance - Select mortgage REITs, particularly Annaly Capital (NLY), are positioned for significant payouts and price appreciation due to their holdings in government-backed mortgages [6][8] - NLY benefits from falling long-term interest rates, which increase the value of its mortgage portfolio [8] Annaly Capital's Strategy - Annaly Capital has a history of capitalizing on market volatility by purchasing high-quality agency mortgages when spreads widen [7] - The company has sufficient core earnings to cover its dividend, with potential for increased earnings as rate cuts improve its net interest margin [9] Investment Considerations - Not all mortgage REITs are equally positioned; Annaly's focus on guaranteed agency paper mitigates risks associated with lower-quality commercial mortgages held by other mREITs [9] - The current economic landscape creates distinct winners and losers, emphasizing the importance of selecting proven investment strategies [9]

Group 1: Market Overview - US stocks experienced a significant surge, driven by strong Nvidia earnings and improved rate-cut expectations following the September jobs report [1][2] - The Nasdaq Composite led the gains, rising approximately 2.5%, while the S&P 500 increased by over 1.8%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 1.3%, or over 500 points [2] Group 2: Nvidia Performance - Nvidia's stock rose nearly 5% in early trading after the company reported earnings that exceeded expectations and provided a stronger-than-expected revenue outlook for Q4 [3] - CEO Jensen Huang highlighted that demand for Blackwell processors is "off the charts," alleviating concerns about a potential long-term slowdown in AI-related stocks [3] Group 3: Employment Data and Economic Outlook - The September nonfarm payrolls report indicated that the US economy added 119,000 jobs, significantly surpassing the expected gain of 51,000 [4] - The unemployment rate increased to 4.4%, up from 4.3% in August, contrary to expectations that it would remain unchanged [4] - Following the jobs report, options traders adjusted their expectations, pricing in approximately 42% odds of a rate cut at the Federal Reserve's next meeting in December, up from 28% earlier that morning [5] Group 4: Federal Reserve Insights - Minutes from the Fed's October meeting revealed a divide among policymakers regarding whether a cooling labor market or persistent inflation poses a greater risk to the economy [7] - This uncertainty contributed to speculation about the Fed's decision in December, with some officials indicating no further rate cuts are anticipated [7] Group 5: Walmart Earnings - Walmart raised its full-year forecasts after reporting better-than-expected profit and sales in Q3, reflecting consumer strength ahead of the holiday season [8]

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Market Overview - Singapore's Straits Times Index (STI) has surpassed 4,500, a level not seen in a decade, raising investor interest and speculation about a potential breakout after years of stagnation [1] - The rally is driven by recovering REITs, steady industrial performance, and strong earnings from major banks, despite mixed results among them [2][5] Bank Performance - DBS Group reported a net profit of S$2.95 billion for 3Q2025, while OCBC posted S$1.98 billion; however, UOB's net profit fell to S$443 million due to increased provisions [2][5] - DBS's total income increased by 3% YoY to S$5.9 billion, while OCBC maintained a strong capital return plan with a CET1 ratio of 16.9% [5] - UOB's profit decline of 72% was attributed to S$1.36 billion in credit allowances, including S$615 million in pre-emptive provisions [5] REITs and Industrial Stocks - REITs have stabilized, with CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust achieving a portfolio occupancy of 97.2% and a 3.5% YoY increase in distribution per unit (DPU) [3][10] - Sembcorp Industries reported an underlying profit of S$491 million for 1H2025, while Keppel Ltd's net profit surged 25% YoY to S$431 million, driven by real estate recovery [3] - The average distribution yield for S-REITs is around 6.2%, higher than global peers and Singapore government bond yields, indicating renewed strength in the sector [11] Industrial Sector Growth - Singapore's industrial companies are benefiting from trends in clean energy, infrastructure upgrades, and digitalization, contributing to the STI's rally [13][16] - Sembcorp's earnings have improved due to a focus on renewable energy, while Singapore Technologies Engineering reported a 20% increase in net profit to S$403 million [14] - New contracts worth S$4.9 billion were secured in 3Q2025, enhancing the order book in various sectors [15] Economic Indicators - Singapore's GDP grew by 2.9% YoY in 3Q2025, with total merchandise trade rising 6.6% in 2024 to S$1.29 trillion, indicating steady growth [17][18] - Despite the positive indicators, external risks such as geopolitical tensions and policy shifts could impact market sentiment and financial conditions [17][18] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to focus on quality companies with steady earnings, strong balance sheets, and reliable dividends, particularly in the REITs and industrial sectors [19][20] - A diversified portfolio of well-managed companies is recommended to withstand market volatility and capitalize on potential long-term growth [19][20]

Bitcoin, it briefly dipped below 90K, but it's back around $93,000. It's down about 10% in just one week. It's now negative for the year.Is this the bottom or are we headed lower from here. Joining me now is Cosmo Jang, general partner at Panta Capital. Cosmo, it's great to have you on.>> Hi, Morgan. Thanks for having me. >> Is this crypto winter coming early here.>> Look, we just had a long six-month rally, so some consolidation I think is very reasonable. Crypto tends to have these characteristics of risk ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q3 2025, the company reported invested income of $5.4 million or $0.80 per share, a slight decrease from $5.5 million in the prior quarter [15] - Total expenses remained stable at $2.4 million or $0.35 per share, consistent with the previous quarter [15] - The company recorded net unrealized losses on investments of $6.9 million or $1.02 per share, alongside a modest net realized loss of $424,000, resulting in a net loss of $4.3 million or $0.64 per share [15] - Recurring cash flows from the CLO portfolio totaled $8.7 million or $1.28 per share, exceeding distributions and expenses by $0.26 per share, up from $8 million or $1.18 per share in the prior quarter [15][16] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The portfolio's average junior OC cushion stands at 4.5%, with deals exposed to First Brands having a slightly higher cushion of 4.6% [6] - The weighted average gap yield of the portfolio increased from 12.75% to 13.07% due to refinancing activities [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The broader CLO equity market faced headwinds, primarily due to spread tightening in the broadly syndicated loans market [5] - The company noted a significant uptick in leveraged buyout (LBO) activity, with approximately $200 billion in deals announced during the first three quarters of 2025, surpassing the $164 billion recorded for all of 2024 [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains focused on disciplined portfolio management and long-term total return, viewing market dislocations as opportunities [5][9] - The investment platform combines machine learning and natural language processing with traditional credit analysis, providing a competitive advantage in sourcing opportunities [11][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management views the current environment as broadly positive for CLO equity, especially with anticipated rate cuts leading to improved corporate refinancing conditions [9] - The company believes that CLOs provide an efficient way to access senior secured corporate loans and can offer an attractive risk-return profile across various credit cycles [19] Other Important Information - As of September 30, 2025, total assets were $157.5 million, with total net assets of $114.9 million, resulting in a net asset value per share of $16.89 [16] - The company distributed dividends of $0.22 per common share in July, August, September, and October, with plans for the same in the following months, representing an annualized dividend yield of approximately 16% [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Insights on the primary CLO market and investment opportunities - Management indicated that arbitrage returns in the primary CLO equity market are currently not adequate for large-scale participation, with more attractive opportunities in the secondary CLO equity markets [22][23] Question: Impact of resets and refinancings on expected yields - Management preferred not to comment on intra-quarter activities but noted that previous resets and refinancings contributed significantly to yield improvements [24][25] Question: Mix of opportunities between U.S. and European CLOs - The majority of the portfolio is focused on the U.S. CLO market, with occasional consideration for European CLOs, particularly single B positions that can provide stronger NAV protection [29] Question: Future ATM issuance versus share repurchase - Management is evaluating both options but believes it is too early to consider share repurchase as a viable option at this stage [31] Question: Potential portfolio growth and leverage management - Management will add leverage when costs are attractive, and they continue to monitor conditions to modulate leverage levels as needed [32][33]