Stocks kicked off December on a solid footing, with the S&P 500 edging higher and now up roughly 17% year- to-date. With only a few weeks left in 2025. Two key drivers to help steer into year-end and 2026: According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now assign an 89.4% probability to a quarter-point rate cut at this week's Fed meeting. The central bank last trimmed its policy rate on October 29, to 3.75%-4.00% from 4.00%-4.25%, marking a second straight 25-basis-point reduction this year. But Powell rattled ...

Hello and welcome to Asking for a Trend. I'm Josh Lipton and for the next half hour, we are breaking down the [music] trends of today that'll move stocks tomorrow. Investors tapping the brakes heading into a [music] busy week. Stocks pulling back as the Fed gears up for its policy meeting and a [music] likely rate cut. We look at how today's action could set the tone for the week. The fight for Warner Brothers Discovery goes hostile. Paramount [music] ramping up the pressure and the price tag to take over t ...

Market Overview - US stocks are experiencing a pullback as investors await the Federal Reserve's final policy meeting of the year, with expectations of a rate cut [1] - The technology sector has shown strong performance, with the XLK ETF up 8.1% over the past 10 days, significantly outperforming other sectors [1] - Defensive sectors such as utilities, healthcare, and real estate have underperformed during this period [1] Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The 10-year Treasury yield has increased by three basis points to 4.17%, while the 30-year yield is at 4.82%, having cleared its 200-day moving average [1] - The bond market's VIX indicates low fear, which is generally positive for both bonds and stocks [1] Earnings Reports - Upcoming earnings reports include AutoZone, Campbell Soup, and GameStop, with Campbell expected to see a sales decline of 4-5% due to a strong prior year [3][4] - The NFIB optimism index is forecasted to slightly increase to 98.3, indicating stable confidence among small businesses [5] AI and Technology Outlook - Former Cisco CEO John Chambers expressed optimism about the AI sector, predicting significant growth in productivity and earnings by 2026 [7][14] - Companies like Google, Microsoft, and AMD are highlighted as key players in the AI space, with Chambers emphasizing the importance of strategic partnerships and acquisitions [11][20] Warner Brothers Discovery Takeover - Paramount has launched a hostile bid for Warner Brothers Discovery at $30 per share, raising the stakes by $18 billion [22] - The outcome of this takeover battle is expected to significantly influence the future of streaming and the media industry [24][30] - Regulatory scrutiny will focus on how the market is defined, particularly in terms of streaming versus broader media consumption [25][26]

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia's stock has shown significant gains historically, but December performance has been inconsistent, particularly in the last decade, suggesting caution for short-term investments before the end of 2025 [1][9][12]. Group 1: Nvidia's Historical Performance - Nvidia's shares have increased over 35% year-to-date, with a strong historical performance in most years since 2014 [1]. - The average historical gain for Nvidia in December is 3.2%, while the median gain is 2.6% [6]. - In the last 10 years, Nvidia's average return in December has been a loss of 1.7%, making it the worst month for the company during this period [9]. Group 2: Market Trends and Investor Behavior - December is generally a strong month for stocks, with the S&P 500 showing high average returns historically [2][3]. - The "Santa Claus rally" phenomenon typically occurs during the last five trading days of December and the first two trading days of January, with a high occurrence rate [3]. - Factors contributing to December's positive performance include tax-loss harvesting and increased retail investor activity due to year-end bonuses [4]. Group 3: Long-term Prospects for Nvidia - Despite short-term December performance concerns, Nvidia's long-term prospects remain strong due to rising demand for AI applications and data center growth [13][14]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from ongoing trends in AI development, including artificial general intelligence and AI-powered humanoid robots [14].

Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The market anticipates a quarter-point rate cut, with an 85% chance that the FOMC will lower rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.5%–3.75% [5] - Despite expectations for easing, five of the 12 voting members are publicly against further rate cuts, indicating a divided FOMC [5] - Wells Fargo notes a "critical mass of support" for the doves, but multiple dissents are expected, with the 2026 median dot projected to hold at 3.375% [5] Earnings Reports - Oracle is expected to report EPS of $1.64 on revenue of $16.2 billion, while Broadcom is projected to report EPS of $1.87 on revenue of $17.64 billion [6] - Wells Fargo initiated coverage on Broadcom with an Overweight rating and a $280 price target, citing nearly $500 billion in AI-related deals [6] - Susquehanna highlights Broadcom's strong position in revenue growth driven by AI networking demand and its long-standing partnership with Google [6] Market Commentary - Michael Burry compares OpenAI to Netscape, suggesting it may face a similar decline despite a potential $1 trillion valuation [6] - Burry also draws parallels between Palantir and DiamondCluster, indicating concerns about their long-term viability [6] - The S&P 500 will see Carvana, CRH, and Comfort Systems USA added, while LKQ, Solstice Advanced Materials, and Mohawk Industries will be removed [6]

Ho ho. Hold on. Is a Santa Claus rally actually coming this year.Most December, the market usually gives us a nice little gift. Stocks drift higher after Thanksgiving. Volatility cools off.And Wall Street enjoys that classic year- end green. But this year, Santa might not show up. In terms of seasonal patterns, nothing has really followed the traditional playbook so far in 2025.We had that deep seek scare back in February. [music] Then President Trump's surprise tariff announcements, a surge back to record ...

Welcome back to Opening Bell and we're happy you're here with us. Sam Burns, chief strategist, Mil Street Research, is with us because we're into December. We've so much to talk about.It's been sort of a really exciting few weeks. We wrapped up November with a quick rally. You know, the NASDAQ was up 5%, didn't squeeze out the gain, but the S&P and the Dow did that.Um, and now, you know, there's a lot of talk about what happens. Are we going to have a Santa Claus rally. What's your big picture feeling now f ...

It will certainly be interesting to write the obituary for 2025. Given that there's one month left in this fiscal year (plenty of time for lots to take place), I wouldn't be surprised to either see an incredible Santa Claus rally materialize into year end, or a continuation of some of the bearish momentum we've seen build form into a full-blown market selloff as investors reposition their portfolios for more downside as this AI selloff continues. ...

The U.S. stock market demonstrated resilience on Wednesday, December 3rd, 2025, with major indexes closing higher for the seventh time in eight sessions. Investor optimism was largely fueled by fresh economic data that bolstered expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next week, despite a mixed picture on the labor front. Technology stocks, however, presented a more varied performance, with some giants facing headwinds while others surged on strong earnings and strategic acquisitions.Major Inde ...

Let's ask Chris Heisy, Maryland Bank of America private bank CIO. He's here. Got your 2026 outlook finished up, ready to go.So, what what's your plan of attack that you're talking to investors about. >> Well, right now the momentum, as you already stated, is this is an elf rally right now on a on the way to a Santa Claus type of rally. Uh so, we're just beginning this right now.We had a lot of >> So, they're working on it. Yeah. They got to finish it up, >> right.They're in the workshop right now and then u ...