September seasonality bro's about to ripped a new one. ...

The seasonality aspect is something we talk about post Labor Day a lot because since the 1950s it has been depending on time frame either the worst or one of the worst. If you juxtapose that with all of the market catalyst that we are anticipating for the coming few weeks. Do we think this is a weaker setup that deserves paying more attention to this time around.Uh I think most likely yes. I mean you know why do we have that seasonality. People people go away they go on vacation.They take a few weeks and th ...

💥BREAKING:Jim Cramer says the market in September is normally "weak."SEASONALITY CURSE = BROKEN NOW! https://t.co/JeEtPc2fAz ...

Average $ETH seasonality over the past years! https://t.co/3bqIpHW1WY ...

REMINDER:Bitcoin seasonality tends to be negative in September. https://t.co/y6Ek3RzvQj ...

Market Overview - The S&P 500 Index (SPX) has not reached a new all-time intraday high for six consecutive days, marking its longest streak without a new high since mid-June, closing just 0.32 points below last month's all-time closing high of 6,389.77 [1] - The SPX advanced above the previous all-time high of 6,427 last week, but selling at new highs is not recommended due to the frequency of such occurrences since the late-June breakout [4] - The SPX is currently pausing around the 10% above 2024 close level of 6,469, indicating a potential pause rather than a major pivot [5] Inflation and Market Reaction - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a significant increase of 0.9% in July, compared to the forecast of 0.2%, which could have triggered major selling, but the market reacted neutrally [6] - The lack of selling pressure may be due to hedge fund managers exiting positions in response to tariffs and inflation concerns, while active fund managers reduced equity exposure leading up to the PPI release [7] Sentiment and Technical Indicators - Market sentiment is cautious, with the percentage of bullish investors in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) falling below 30% for the first time since early May, which historically has been a buying opportunity [7] - The 30-day moving average is a key technical indicator, currently projected to be around 6,365 by week's end, and serves as a potential guide for identifying cracks in the current uptrend [12]

Core Insights - Apple stock has historically performed poorly in September, with a win rate of only 34% and an average return of -4.18% over the past 45 years, making it the weakest month for the stock [1][2] - In contrast, other months like July, October, and December have shown win rates above 60%, indicating a seasonal dip specifically in September [2] - Despite the historical trend, September is significant for Apple as it typically unveils new products, including the iPhone 17, which could impact stock performance [2][6] Stock Performance - As of the latest session, Apple stock closed at $231.59, reflecting a 5% decline year to date in 2025 [3] Upcoming Events - The upcoming iPhone 17 event in September is crucial, as the new iPhone 17 Air model is expected to compete with Samsung's Galaxy S25 Edge, and its reception will be pivotal for Apple's growth [6]

Market Trends - Ethereum (ETH) 可能在 9 月份出现回调 [1] - 行业预测以太坊 (ETH) 在第四季度可能出现上涨 [1] Seasonality - 以太坊 (ETH) 价格呈现季节性波动 [1]

Retail Investor Performance - Retail investors have recently outperformed the NASDAQ, marking the second time since 2014 and the first full year in 2024 [1][2] - Retail investors are currently performing 3 to 4 percentage points better than the SPY [2] Top Holdings and Strategies - Retail investors' top buys include mega-cap tech names like Nvidia, Tesla, AMD, Palantir, and Amazon [3] - Retail investors have shifted towards tech AI and tech crypto themes, contributing to portfolio performance [4] - Short squeezes in these sectors, driven by retail investor buying against hedge fund shorts, have boosted returns [4] Seasonality and Trends - Historically, strong buying occurs at the beginning of the year, slowing around tax season and picking up in early summer, with a slowdown in the latter part of the year due to holidays and travel [6][7] - The typical seasonality shifted this year due to a correction in April, which retail investors capitalized on [8] - Seasonality trends suggest a potential slowdown in retail investor buying in the latter part of the year [8]

Market Seasonality & Trends - The market typically experiences a summer rally from May through July, with the first year of the presidential cycle showing an average increase of approximately 5.5%, this year reaching 13.8% [2] - Seasonality tends to turn negative from August through October, potentially leading to market backing and filling [2][3] - A traditional scary October drawdown is anticipated based on studied data [3] Key Technical Levels - Support levels are identified at 6100 to 6200, while resistance is around 6600 [4] - The cyclical uptrend that began in April is expected to rally into the 6400-6600 area by year-end [4] - A dip could test rising 26 and 40 week moving averages around 5900 [4][5][6] Yield Curve Analysis - The 30-year yield rebound towards 5% could be forming a rising wedge, suggesting a potential downside break towards 4.4% or even 4% [8] - The five-year yield might be forming a distribution top, indicating a potential decrease if it breaks lower [8] - Continued steepening in the yield curve is anticipated, potentially leading to 2 or 3 rate cuts this year [9] Investment Focus - The current long-term secular bull market favors larger companies, leading to outperformance of the largest stocks [10] - Growth stocks are showing strong performance versus value stocks across market caps in the US, with new relative highs for Russell 1000 growth versus Russell 1000 value, S&P growth versus S&P value, and small cap growth versus small cap value [11] - Internationally, value is breaking out versus growth, presenting a different dynamic [12]