REMINDER:Bitcoin seasonality tends to be negative in September. https://t.co/y6Ek3RzvQj ...

Market Overview - The S&P 500 Index (SPX) has not reached a new all-time intraday high for six consecutive days, marking its longest streak without a new high since mid-June, closing just 0.32 points below last month's all-time closing high of 6,389.77 [1] - The SPX advanced above the previous all-time high of 6,427 last week, but selling at new highs is not recommended due to the frequency of such occurrences since the late-June breakout [4] - The SPX is currently pausing around the 10% above 2024 close level of 6,469, indicating a potential pause rather than a major pivot [5] Inflation and Market Reaction - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a significant increase of 0.9% in July, compared to the forecast of 0.2%, which could have triggered major selling, but the market reacted neutrally [6] - The lack of selling pressure may be due to hedge fund managers exiting positions in response to tariffs and inflation concerns, while active fund managers reduced equity exposure leading up to the PPI release [7] Sentiment and Technical Indicators - Market sentiment is cautious, with the percentage of bullish investors in the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) falling below 30% for the first time since early May, which historically has been a buying opportunity [7] - The 30-day moving average is a key technical indicator, currently projected to be around 6,365 by week's end, and serves as a potential guide for identifying cracks in the current uptrend [12]

Core Insights - Apple stock has historically performed poorly in September, with a win rate of only 34% and an average return of -4.18% over the past 45 years, making it the weakest month for the stock [1][2] - In contrast, other months like July, October, and December have shown win rates above 60%, indicating a seasonal dip specifically in September [2] - Despite the historical trend, September is significant for Apple as it typically unveils new products, including the iPhone 17, which could impact stock performance [2][6] Stock Performance - As of the latest session, Apple stock closed at $231.59, reflecting a 5% decline year to date in 2025 [3] Upcoming Events - The upcoming iPhone 17 event in September is crucial, as the new iPhone 17 Air model is expected to compete with Samsung's Galaxy S25 Edge, and its reception will be pivotal for Apple's growth [6]

Market Trends - Ethereum (ETH) 可能在 9 月份出现回调 [1] - 行业预测以太坊 (ETH) 在第四季度可能出现上涨 [1] Seasonality - 以太坊 (ETH) 价格呈现季节性波动 [1]

Retail Investor Performance - Retail investors have recently outperformed the NASDAQ, marking the second time since 2014 and the first full year in 2024 [1][2] - Retail investors are currently performing 3 to 4 percentage points better than the SPY [2] Top Holdings and Strategies - Retail investors' top buys include mega-cap tech names like Nvidia, Tesla, AMD, Palantir, and Amazon [3] - Retail investors have shifted towards tech AI and tech crypto themes, contributing to portfolio performance [4] - Short squeezes in these sectors, driven by retail investor buying against hedge fund shorts, have boosted returns [4] Seasonality and Trends - Historically, strong buying occurs at the beginning of the year, slowing around tax season and picking up in early summer, with a slowdown in the latter part of the year due to holidays and travel [6][7] - The typical seasonality shifted this year due to a correction in April, which retail investors capitalized on [8] - Seasonality trends suggest a potential slowdown in retail investor buying in the latter part of the year [8]

Market Seasonality & Trends - The market typically experiences a summer rally from May through July, with the first year of the presidential cycle showing an average increase of approximately 5.5%, this year reaching 13.8% [2] - Seasonality tends to turn negative from August through October, potentially leading to market backing and filling [2][3] - A traditional scary October drawdown is anticipated based on studied data [3] Key Technical Levels - Support levels are identified at 6100 to 6200, while resistance is around 6600 [4] - The cyclical uptrend that began in April is expected to rally into the 6400-6600 area by year-end [4] - A dip could test rising 26 and 40 week moving averages around 5900 [4][5][6] Yield Curve Analysis - The 30-year yield rebound towards 5% could be forming a rising wedge, suggesting a potential downside break towards 4.4% or even 4% [8] - The five-year yield might be forming a distribution top, indicating a potential decrease if it breaks lower [8] - Continued steepening in the yield curve is anticipated, potentially leading to 2 or 3 rate cuts this year [9] Investment Focus - The current long-term secular bull market favors larger companies, leading to outperformance of the largest stocks [10] - Growth stocks are showing strong performance versus value stocks across market caps in the US, with new relative highs for Russell 1000 growth versus Russell 1000 value, S&P growth versus S&P value, and small cap growth versus small cap value [11] - Internationally, value is breaking out versus growth, presenting a different dynamic [12]

Financial Performance - The company experienced a solid 37% revenue growth [1][2] - Gross margin stands at 87% [1] - The company exceeded expectations across the board on revenue growth and adjusted EBIT [2] Active Member Growth - Active member growth was 23% year-over-year in both Q1 and Q2, accelerating the rate [1][4] - Investors may be starting to understand the nuances of the business, including its seasonality [3] - Sequential quarter-to-quarter growth might be disappointing to some who don't understand the seasonality [4] Business Model & Strategy - The company focuses on serving everyday consumers and banking them in a primary account capacity [6] - The company is primarily a payments-driven business, not a lending business [7] - Credit and lending constitute a mid-teens percentage of the company's revenue [8] - The company aims to develop long-term partnerships with members, helping them avoid fees, build credit, and save [8] AI Integration - The company is leveraging AI to enhance the product experience and operations [11] - Over 70% of customer interactions are served with generative AI, leading to increased customer satisfaction [12] - The company envisions AI as a digital partner to help customers manage their day-to-day financial life [13]

All three major averages finishing in the green today. The NASDAQ up 1%. Our next guest is warning of seasonal weakness ahead for the stock market.But could strong earnings reverse the usual August malaise. Well, let's bring in RBC Capital Markets head of US equity strategy Lori Calvacina as well as region's wealth management CIO Alan Mcnite. It's great to have you both here.Alan, you're sitting here on set with me. Welcome. Let's start this conversation.What do you think of markets here. What would you be ...

Market Volatility & Seasonality - August is typically a high volatility month and not favorable for bulls, with the VIX potentially rising by 18% [2][3] - Markets are exhibiting cautiousness due to seasonality and other factors [4] Meme Stock Frenzy & Market Breadth - The current meme stock frenzy is less widespread and contained compared to previous instances post-COVID [5][6] - Benchmark FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) hasn't been observed yet, indicating a lack of widespread panic buying [9] Sector Rotation & Underlying Market Dynamics - Significant rotations are occurring between factors like momentum versus value, but are masked by benchmark performance and concentration risk [13][14] - The market is likened to a paddling duck, with furious activity underneath a seemingly calm surface, indicating massive rotations [12][13] Nvidia Sentiment - Ahead of August 27th, there's bearish sentiment towards Nvidia, contrasting with the exuberance seen in May 2021 [8]

Market Outlook - Veteran trader Jonathan Rose is shorting tech stocks due to a complacent market ahead of significant economic catalysts, including the Fed's rate decision and major tech earnings [1][2][3] - The VIX, a measure of market volatility, is currently below 15, indicating low expected turbulence, which is concerning given the upcoming events that could trigger volatility [2][3] Trading Strategy - To mitigate risk, a defined-risk put spread on QQQ (the Nasdaq ETF) is being implemented, allowing for profit from rising volatility or a short-term pullback while capping exposure [4][5] - The strategy does not require a significant drop in tech stock prices; a rise in uncertainty alone could make the put profitable [5] Earnings and Economic Reports - Key earnings reports from Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple are scheduled, along with the FOMC meeting and employment data, which could impact market volatility [7] Seasonal Trends - Historical data suggests a short-term bearish outlook for the S&P 500, with a peak expected this week, followed by a decline until October 2, after which a rebound is anticipated [9][11][12] Gold Market Analysis - Gold is forming a bullish "ascending triangle" pattern, indicating a potential breakout if it surpasses the resistance level around $3,430, supported by increased trading volume [14][16][20] - The seasonality tool forecasts that gold prices have historically risen during specific windows, suggesting a favorable trading environment for gold in the coming months [17] Tesla's Market Position - Tesla faces significant challenges, including increased competition from Chinese manufacturers like BYD, which offers more affordable EVs, and the end of federal electric vehicle tax credits [21][22][23] - Analysts suggest that Tesla's production goals for its Optimus robots are lagging, further complicating its market position [24][26]