I have zero inside info, this is pure speculation. However, we will have the Kaito team on the show next week after the official announcementhttps://t.co/6dldTyxpkq ...

Adoption Wave & Infrastructure - Speculative eras drive onchain opportunists, but this wave is expected to be the 'stickiest' due to improved infrastructure and UX [1] - The industry now possesses the necessary infrastructure and improved UX to win over more sustained adoption than before [2] - Solana successfully managed a $600 million ICO onchain, highlighting infrastructure improvements [2] - The availability of fast chains and altDA further supports this stickiness [2] Shifting Perceptions & Institutional Demand - Perception around crypto has shifted, particularly regarding institutional demand, which focuses on long-term (5+ year) results [3] - Companies focused on RWAs, stablecoins, and tokenization contribute to this stickiness, playing a different game than treasury companies [4] Opportunities & Retention - The breadth of opportunities available to users, including social apps, InfoFi, DeFi, NFTs, games, tap trading, prediction markets, stablecoin yields, and tokenized equities, increases the likelihood of user retention [4][5] - The primary goal is to increase long-term retention from speculative booms to expand the onchain user base [5] - The industry anticipates much higher retention rates over the next 12-18 months compared to previous eras [5]

More details on this thesis (which I think is more or less widely accepted):https://t.co/bzDekZCNviDan Romero (@dwr):Crypto market right now is a barbell: speculation and stablecoinsIf you're not in the speculation stack—app / UI, DEX, chain or asset launchpad—you're probably not generating much revenue. The stack is a dynamic market and startups can compete and grow very fast, e.g. ...

Market Trends - The industry observes a cyclical pattern of speculative trends: ICOs -> NFTs -> VC vapor coins -> memecoins -> ??? [1] - The industry anticipates the emergence of a new speculative "shiny new toy" [1] - Early identification of these trends is crucial for success, mirroring previous meta cycles [1] Investment Strategy - The industry dismisses the notion of treasury companies as the next speculative trend [1] - The industry emphasizes the importance of catching trends early to "win the game" [1]

Market Trends - Wall Street speculators have returned in full force [1]

Memecoin Analysis - The memecoin narrative demonstrates the power of organic emergence in the crypto space, contrasting with VC-backed projects [1] - The memecoin's rise from $5 million to $180 million market cap illustrates the impact of a self-aware narrative [2] Market Sentiment - The memecoin's success highlights the value of authenticity over traditional marketing strategies [3] - The community rally around the "useless" meme demonstrates a cultural phenomenon unique to crypto [3] Speculative Behavior - The trading of a token literally called "useless" reflects the speculative nature of memecoins [2] - The memecoin's success suggests that community and humor can be valuable assets in the market [3]

Market Trends - Speculation typically seen in alternative cryptocurrencies ("alts") or on-chain activities is now prevalent in the stock market [1] - There are increasing avenues to express a bullish view on cryptocurrency [1] - Companies like Bitcoin treasury companies, Circle, Coinbase, and Robinhood are attracting significant speculative capital [1] - The speculative flows will eventually extend to tokens more rapidly than anticipated [1] Proof of Stake (PoS) & Layer 1 (L1) Chains - Recent discussions around Proof of Stake (PoS) are largely driven by the poor price performance of major Layer 1 (L1) chains such as NEAR, DOT, TIA, and APT [2] - The future direction for these chains involves reduced inflation, less emphasis on slashing, and a clear path towards profitability, including considering inflation as an expense [2] - The shift towards less inflation and profitability is considered a positive development for these chains [2]

Market Sentiment & Geopolitical Impact - Markets initially reacted to geopolitical events with de-risking, but the limited surge in oil prices suggests a lower risk of straits being closed [2][5] - Stress tests have been passed by the market, indicating potential for stocks to perform well [4] - Geopolitical events have not significantly altered growth and inflation expectations for US stocks, bonds, and the dollar [6] Inflation & Monetary Policy - US CPI, calculated on the same basis as the ECB's core CPI (excluding housing), is lower than Europe's, suggesting a potential dovish tilt from the Federal Reserve [6][7] - Inflation expectations are currently above CPI, which could lead to positive surprises if inflation is lower than expected [12] Market Dynamics & Investment Strategy - Consumer discretionary sector is leading market gains, while energy lags [1] - There are echoes of 2021 with some stocks receiving bizarre valuations, but institutional investors are less risk-taking due to macro uncertainties [8][9] - Retail investors, who bought the dip in April, are driving speculative activity, while high net worth individuals and institutions remain cautious [10] - Macro conditions are improving with better visibility on tariffs and regulation into 2026, supporting a bullish outlook [11] - Businesses have shown resilience, with earnings performing better despite potential economic weakening [12]