Stock Rally Loses Steam With PPI, Retail in Focus. Get market insights on Bloomberg Surveillance. @tomkeene @ptsweeney @LisaMateoTV are LIVE on YouTube. https://t.co/m9IglISGoz ...

Stock Buybacks Trend - Tech firms and big banks are leading the charge in record stock buybacks [1] - Stock buybacks are fueling the U S stock rally [1]

Core Viewpoint - Dell Technologies (DELL) has shown a significant year-to-date increase of 14.8% since early April, although the stock has paused recently to allow the 50-day moving average to catch up [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - DELL is currently trading at $132.53 and is close to the 50-day trendline's 20-day average true range (ATR), indicating a potential bullish signal [2]. - Historical data shows that similar signals have led to a price increase 83% of the time over the past three years, with an average gain of 15.5% one month later [2]. - If the stock follows the historical trend, it could reach $153.07, marking its highest level since June 2024 [2]. Group 2: Options Market - The Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) for DELL is at 39%, which is in the low 7th percentile of its annual range, suggesting that options traders are anticipating low volatility [5].

Market Trends - The stock rally, driven by dip-buying and expectations of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts, seems to be losing steam [1] Media Appearance - Bloomberg Surveillance is providing market insights on YouTube [1]

Core Insights - President Trump's praise for Sydney Sweeney's ad campaign significantly boosted American Eagle Outfitters' stock value, which rose by 23.65% to close at $13.28 per share [1][3] - The stock reached a two-month high intraday, helping to mitigate year-to-date losses, which still stand at 20.3% [3] - The ad campaign has sparked controversy on social media, with some critics suggesting it promotes racial discrimination and eugenics [9] Company Performance - American Eagle's shares experienced their largest percentage increase since August 3, 2000, and the highest close since February 26 [3] - The stock's performance is notable given the ongoing year-to-date decline, indicating a potential recovery driven by external factors [3] Public Reaction and Controversy - Trump's comments about Sweeney being a registered Republican contributed to the positive reception of the ad, which features the tagline "Sydney Sweeney has Great Jeans" [4][8] - The ad has faced backlash for its perceived implications regarding race and genetics, prompting discussions in major media outlets [9] - American Eagle responded to the criticism by clarifying that the campaign is focused on the jeans and individual stories, not on any racial connotations [11]

Group 1 - EQT is currently trading at $55.87, showing a 0.3% increase, but is struggling to recover from a recent decline from its peak of $61.02 on June 23 [1] - The stock has a support level at $55, which was previously a resistance level, and is following a historically bullish trendline just below this point [1] - Year-to-date, EQT shares have increased by 22%, indicating potential for further upward movement [1] Group 2 - According to Rocky White, EQT is within one standard deviation of its 50-day moving average, having been above this trendline in 8 of the last 10 trading days and spending 80% of the last two months above it [2] - Historical data shows that similar conditions have led to a 67% chance of the stock being higher one month later, with an average increase of 5.5% [2] - A comparable increase could bring EQT's price close to $60, nearing its record high [2] Group 3 - The current Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) for EQT is 34%, which ranks in the 12th percentile of its annual range, indicating that options traders are anticipating low volatility [3]

Core Viewpoint - Netflix has fully recovered from its April correction, reaching a new high above $1,260, with shares up nearly 50% in the past two months and over 600% in the last three years [1][2]. Analyst Sentiment - Analysts are optimistic about Netflix's future, with UBS raising its price target to $1,450 and Jefferies to $1,400, indicating a potential upside of nearly 20% from current levels [2][3]. - The positive sentiment is supported by Netflix's competitive position, platform engagement, and long-term operating leverage, particularly in the U.S. market [3]. Growth Drivers - Key growth drivers include a strong content slate, expected price hikes, and increasing ad revenue, with forecasts suggesting over 20% annual EPS growth for the next five years [4][5]. - Netflix is projected to generate up to $10 billion in annual ad revenue by 2030, driven by organic growth and an expanding content offering [7]. Subscriber Dynamics - Recent price hikes have not led to increased subscriber churn, indicating that Netflix has successfully built value into its platform [8]. - The ad-supported tier and international market growth are expected to contribute to revenue and margin expansion without solely relying on subscriber growth [8]. Technical Analysis - The stock's technical chart shows a series of higher highs and higher lows since April, supporting the bullish outlook [10]. - The relative strength index (RSI) has cooled from overbought levels to a more favorable 60, suggesting potential for further gains [10].

Group 1 - Netflix has gained a 3.5% lead this week, driven by price-target increases from UBS to $1,450 and Jefferies to $1,400, with shares reaching a record high of $1,262.81 and a year-to-date increase of 40% [1] - The stock's new high coincides with historically low implied volatility, which has previously been a bullish indicator for Netflix, as its current Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) is at 25%, in the 4th percentile of its 12-month range [2] - Historical data indicates that one month after similar signals, Netflix stock averaged a 7.1% increase, with an 86% chance of finishing the month higher, suggesting potential for the stock to exceed $1,300 [3] Group 2 - Despite bullish sentiment, Netflix's consensus 12-month price target is $1,167.35, representing a 6.5% discount to its current price, indicating potential for further price-target adjustments from analysts [5] - Short-term options traders are currently heavily put-skewed, with a Schaeffer's put/call open interest ratio of 1.50, which is in the 100th percentile of its annual range, suggesting that unwinding these bearish bets could sustain momentum [6]

Core Viewpoint - Tesla Inc has experienced a significant recovery in its stock price during the second quarter of 2025, rebounding nearly 40% after a 35.8% decline at the beginning of the year, indicating a potential for continued bullish momentum as it enters a historically strong month for the stock [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Over the past decade, Tesla has been the best-performing member of the S&P 500 Index in June, with an average monthly gain of 11.6% and a higher closing price 80% of the time [2]. - A similar performance in the current quarter could push Tesla's stock price above $400 for the first time since January, surpassing its year-to-date breakeven level [3]. Group 2: Analyst Sentiment - Currently, 23 out of 41 brokerages rate Tesla's stock as a "hold" or "strong sell," with a consensus 12-month price target of $289.20, representing a 20.2% discount to its current price of $362.78 [3]. Group 3: Options Trading - Short-term options traders are purchasing Tesla options at a discount, with the Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) at 63%, indicating low volatility expectations for the near term [5]. - The Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) for Tesla is 80 out of 100, suggesting that the stock has outperformed options traders' volatility expectations over the past year [5].

Core Viewpoint - Sea Ltd (NYSE:SE) is experiencing a significant rally, recently reaching a three-year high of $165.31, with current trading at $162.51, following support at the $100 level [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - The stock has shown a strong upward trend, hitting a peak amid low implied volatility, with a Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 35%, which is in the 6th percentile of its annual range [2]. - Historical data indicates that after similar low volatility conditions, the stock was higher one month later 83% of the time, with an average gain of 8.7%, suggesting potential for further price appreciation [2]. Group 2: Earnings and Analyst Ratings - Following a positive first-quarter report, Sea Ltd achieved its sixth consecutive post-earnings win, attracting bullish attention [4]. - Among the 21 analysts covering the stock, five maintain a "hold" rating, indicating potential for upward price target adjustments if the stock continues to rally beyond the 12-month consensus price target of $173.40 [4].