Pony AI (PONY) Q4 2024 Earnings Call March 25, 2025 08:00 AM ET Company Participants George Shao - Head of Capital Markets & IRJun Peng - Chairman, Co-Founder & CEOTiancheng Lou - Director, Co-founder & CTOHaojun Wang - CFOBin Wang - VP - Investment Banking Conference Call Participants None - AnalystMing Hsun Lee - AnalystPurdy Ho - Chief Analyst for Overseas Technology Operator Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to Pony AI Inc. Fourth Quarter and Full Year twenty twenty four Earni ...

Group 1 - Waymo plans to offer robotaxi rides in Washington D.C. via the Waymo One app starting in 2026, but must first enhance its lobbying efforts to change current regulations requiring a human driver for autonomous vehicle permits [1][5] - The company is expanding its robotaxi services to maintain its competitive edge against rivals like Amazon's Zoox and Tesla, which is set to launch its own robotaxi service in Austin and California this year [2][3] - Waymo currently operates a commercial robotaxi service in several cities, including Phoenix, Los Angeles, and Austin, and plans to launch in Atlanta and Miami by 2026 [3][4] Group 2 - To increase awareness and enthusiasm, Waymo will begin mapping in 10 cities this year, including Las Vegas, San Diego, and Nashville [4] - The company has recently tested a small fleet of Jaguar I-Pace robotaxis in D.C., where it has been conducting manual driving and autonomous testing with a safety driver present [4] - Waymo's business model relies on the removal of human drivers, and it aims to collaborate with policymakers to update permitting rules for fully autonomous vehicles [5]

Summary of the Conference Call on Autonomous Driving in China Industry Overview - The autonomous driving (AD) sector in China is moving towards mainstream adoption, with significant advancements in technology and increased competition among electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers [2][16] - BYD has launched "God's Eye," an advanced smart-driving system, which will be integrated into its mass-market EVs, enhancing the adoption of autonomous driving features [2][16] - Other competitors like Tesla, Xpeng, Li Auto, and Geely are also enhancing their smart driving capabilities, leading to rising sector share prices [2][18] Key Points and Arguments - **Market Dynamics**: The introduction of advanced autonomous driving features is expected to drive up stock prices, but increased competition may lead to price cuts and margin pressures, accelerating industry consolidation [2][30] - **Consumer Trends**: Consumer acceptance of autonomous driving is rising, with 86% of China's auto market comprising vehicles priced below RMB300,000. BYD and Tesla dominate the market segments below RMB300,000 [22][23] - **Penetration Rates**: The estimated penetration rate of higher-level autonomous driving functions in China's EV market is approximately 11%, rising to 17% when including Tesla [24][26] - **Future Projections**: The EV penetration rate in China is projected to reach 60% in 2025, 69% in 2026, and 99% by 2030, which will significantly impact the adoption of smart driving features [24] Investment Opportunities - **Preferred Automakers**: EV makers with strong autonomous driving capabilities and robust product cycles are best positioned to benefit from the market dynamics [3][20] - **Supply Chain Opportunities**: The smart driving supply chain presents multiple growth opportunities for component makers, as many EV manufacturers rely on tech suppliers for software, AI chips, and sensors [4][39] - **Initiations of Coverage**: HSBC Qianhai Securities has initiated coverage on Desay and Tuopu, both key players in the supply chain, with Buy ratings due to their strong positioning in the autonomous driving market [5][45] Additional Insights - **Consumer Preferences**: The proportion of intelligent features influencing buying decisions has increased from 12% in 2022 to 14% in 2023, indicating a growing trend towards smart vehicles [50][58] - **Pricing Strategies**: As autonomous driving features become commoditized, consumer willingness to pay for these features has declined, particularly in Tier-1 cities [51][60] - **Technological Advancements**: The shift towards AI-based algorithms and increased computing power among key players like Huawei, Xpeng, and Li Auto is crucial for the development of autonomous driving technology [65][69] Risks and Challenges - **Market Risks**: Potential risks include lower-than-expected consumer adoption, regulatory tightening, and global trade tensions affecting China's smart EV technology exports [35][36] - **Sustainability Concerns**: Questions remain regarding the long-term business model sustainability for autonomous driving component suppliers, despite their growth opportunities [39][40] This summary encapsulates the key insights and developments in the autonomous driving sector in China, highlighting the competitive landscape, investment opportunities, and potential risks.

Summary of Ningbo Tuopu Group Co Ltd (601689 CH) Equity Research Report Company Overview - **Company**: Ningbo Tuopu Group Co Ltd - **Industry**: Auto Components - **Position**: Leading auto and EV parts supplier in China, expanding from noise, vibration, and harshness (NVH) to a comprehensive range of components including air suspension systems and humanoid robot actuators [2][20] Core Insights - **Growth Forecast**: Earnings are expected to grow at a 30% CAGR from 2024 to 2026, driven by: - Expansion of the EV customer base, including domestic clients like Seres, Li Auto, and Xiaomi, which are gaining market share [3][34] - Increasing content value per vehicle due to a platform-based business model [3][45] - **Market Performance**: Tuopu's shares have increased by 22% year-to-date, outperforming the CSI300 index, attributed to its focus on autonomous driving and robotics [4][66] - **Valuation**: Initiated with a Buy rating and a target price of RMB79.00, indicating a potential upside of approximately 32% from the current share price [5][66] Financial Highlights - **Revenue Growth**: Projected revenue growth from RMB19.7 billion in 2023 to RMB42.8 billion by 2026, with significant contributions from key customers [12][51] - **Earnings Estimates**: EPS expected to rise from RMB1.95 in 2023 to RMB2.98 in 2026, with a notable decline in 2024 due to Tesla's product cycle [8][66] - **Key Ratios**: - PE ratio expected to decrease from 30.7x in 2023 to 20.1x in 2026 [14][71] - ROE projected to remain stable around 19% [13][14] Customer Base and Market Dynamics - **Major Customers**: Tesla is the largest customer, contributing over 30% of revenue in 2024, followed by local brands like Seres, Li Auto, and Xiaomi [21][34] - **Customer Expansion**: Tuopu plans to acquire Wuhu Changpeng to deepen collaboration with Chery and LeapMotor, enhancing its local brand customer base [36][34] Competitive Advantages - **Diversified Product Portfolio**: Transition from NVH components to high-value segments like thermal management and air suspension systems [20][45] - **Platform-Based Business Model**: Enables cross-selling opportunities and increases unit content value per vehicle, enhancing customer relationships [47][49] Risks and Challenges - **Volume Growth Risks**: Potential slower-than-expected volume growth for auto and robot components, particularly if Tesla's product cycle does not accelerate [5][66] - **Operational Risks**: Possible operational issues at overseas plants and intensifying competition could impact margins [5][66] Future Outlook - **Humanoid Robot Market**: Tuopu is positioned to benefit from the humanoid robot market, although revenue contributions are expected to be limited in the near term [55][57] - **Investment in Robotics**: Plans to invest RMB5 billion in a new facility for robotic components, indicating a long-term growth strategy [56][66] Conclusion - **Investment Thesis**: Tuopu is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for EV components and robotics, supported by a diversified customer base and a strong platform-based business model. The company is expected to deliver robust earnings growth, making it a compelling investment opportunity [66][67]

Summary of China Autos Overview Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China automotive industry**, particularly the **passenger vehicle (PV)** and **new energy vehicle (NEV)** segments [11][15]. - The overall industry view is categorized as **In-Line** by Morgan Stanley [3]. Key Forecasts - **Passenger Vehicle Sales**: Estimated at **28.3 million units** in 2025, reflecting a **3% year-over-year (YoY)** growth [11][15]. - **New Energy Vehicle Sales**: Projected at **14.9 million units** in 2025, indicating a **21% YoY** increase [11][15]. - **Wholesale NEV penetration** is expected to recover to **46%** in February 2025 [22]. Market Dynamics - The **NEV market** is expected to see a significant increase in penetration, with **PHEVs (including EREVs)** accounting for approximately **40%** of NEV sales [28]. - The **L2+ autonomous driving penetration** forecast has been raised to **25%** in 2025, up from a previous estimate of **15%** [17][19]. Competitive Landscape - The report highlights **intensifying competition** in the China EV market, with local brands gaining market share from foreign brands [37][43]. - **Tech heavyweights** are entering the market, partnering with local OEMs to develop smart EVs and autonomous driving solutions [40][39]. Export and Trade Barriers - **Asia and Europe** accounted for over **70%** of China's vehicle exports in 2024 [48]. - Recent trade barriers have been raised, including a **102.5% tariff on Chinese EVs** in the USA and increased tariffs in the EU [50]. Company Insights - **BYD** is expanding its offshore production capacity with plans for new facilities in **Thailand, Brazil, Uzbekistan, Hungary, Indonesia, and Turkey** [54]. - The report indicates that **local brands** continue to gain share from foreign brands, with **BYD** leading in NEV market share [34][43]. Pricing and Discounts - Retail discounts and price cuts in the automotive sector have stabilized but remain steep, indicating ongoing competitive pressures [25]. Conclusion - The China automotive industry is poised for growth, particularly in the NEV segment, despite challenges from trade barriers and increasing competition. Local brands are expected to continue gaining market share, supported by strategic partnerships and technological advancements.

After trying and failing to acquire Wiz last year, Alphabet (GOOGL -0.65%) (GOOG -0.72%) has reached a deal to buy the fast-growing cybersecurity company. It is paying a steep price of $32 billion, up from the the $23 billion it offered last year. It will also pay Wiz employees $1 billion in retention bonuses. Wiz backed out of the deal last year over antitrust concerns, but expects a more favorable environment under the Trump administration.In my view, this deal looks like a game changer for Alphabet. Let' ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - ZEEKR Group achieved total sales of 500,000 vehicles in 2024, with a 46.9% year-over-year increase in total revenue reaching RMB75 billion [5][23] - Vehicle revenue grew by 63% year-over-year, totaling RMB55 billion, while vehicle gross margin improved to 17.3% in Q4 and 15.6% for the full year [6][24] - The net loss decreased from RMB82.6 billion in 2023 to RMB57.9 billion in 2024, marking a 30% year-over-year decline [26] - Free cash flow for 2024 reached RMB1.5 billion, setting a record high [27] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The ZEEKR brand delivered over 222,000 vehicles in 2024, an 87% year-over-year increase, making it the best-selling premium battery electric vehicle brand in China [6][22] - Lynk & Co brand delivered 280,000 units, a nearly 30% year-over-year increase, achieving the highest sales in its history [5][6] - The average selling price for the ZEEKR brand is close to RMB300,000, while Lynk & Co's average selling price reached over RMB200,000 [9][11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - ZEEKR Group aims to deliver 710,000 vehicles in 2025, with a target of 40% delivery growth [7][29] - The company plans for around 10% of annual sales to come from international markets in 2025 [16] - The Lynk & Co brand's new energy vehicle segment showed a rapid growth with over 58% penetration rate [11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - ZEEKR Group aims to become the world's leading premium new energy vehicle group with annual sales of 1 million units within two years [7] - The company plans to launch three new models for the ZEEKR brand and two for the Lynk & Co brand in 2025 [10][12] - The integration of Lynk & Co and ZEEKR brands is expected to enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs [32] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges intense competition in the Chinese energy vehicle market and plans to leverage synergies from the integration of Lynk & Co and ZEEKR [44][45] - The company is confident in achieving its sales targets backed by improved manufacturing efficiencies and gross margin [58] - Management expects to maintain a vehicle margin of around 15% for the full year 2025 [30] Other Important Information - R&D expenses for 2024 reached RMB9.7 billion, with a focus on improving operational efficiency [24] - The company aims to reduce R&D expense ratio to around 6% and SG&A ratio to around 8% in the next two years [30][31] - ZEEKR Group is the only company in the industry with full stack in-house development capabilities across various technological domains [13] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the conditions for breakeven in 2025? - Management highlighted the importance of controlling costs and integrating Lynk & Co to achieve breakeven, while acknowledging market conditions are unpredictable [41][44] Question: What is the outlook for 2026? - Management aims to create a luxury brand group selling close to 1 million cars globally in the luxury new energy vehicle sector by 2026 [45] Question: How will the new models stand out in a crowded market? - The company plans to equip new models with advanced technologies and maintain competitive pricing to differentiate them [65][66] Question: What is the progress on autonomous driving technology integration? - Both brands will share a unified ADAS solution, with plans to integrate technologies as soon as possible [72][73] Question: Will Lynk & Co adopt ZEEKR's super electric hybrid technology? - Currently, there are no plans for Lynk & Co to use this technology, but both brands will share components for efficiency [76] Question: What is the current status of the export business? - The company targets that overseas sales will make up over 10% of global sales performance in 2025 [81] Question: What is the expected gross margin for Q1 2025? - Management targets a vehicle business gross margin of 15% for Q1 2025, with improvements expected from synergies [86][90]

Group 1: Nasdaq Composite Index Overview - The Nasdaq Composite Index is currently approximately 13% below its previous high, indicating it is in correction territory [1] - Despite the decline, many Nasdaq stocks still possess strong growth prospects, with a focus on three specific stocks that have dropped 20% or more [1] Group 2: Alphabet Inc. - Alphabet's shares have decreased by 23% from their all-time high, raising concerns about existential threats from generative AI and regulatory pressures [2] - The company remains a significant player in the AI market, having launched AI Overviews that enhance user satisfaction and search engine usage across over 100 countries [3] - Google Cloud, while in third place in the cloud services market, is growing faster than its competitors, driven by the success of Google Gemini, its large language model [4] - Alphabet's Waymo self-driving car unit is a key growth driver, with potential valuation estimates reaching $850 billion by 2030 [5] Group 3: Amazon.com Inc. - Amazon's stock has fallen around 21% from its peak in early February 2025, but historically, buying on pullbacks has proven profitable [6] - Amazon Web Services (AWS) remains the leader in the cloud services market, with a year-over-year sales increase of 19% in Q4 2024, despite increased competition [7] - The e-commerce segment, particularly Amazon Prime, continues to attract customers, and the company is exploring new markets such as healthcare and self-driving cars for future growth [8] Group 4: The Trade Desk Inc. - The Trade Desk's stock has dropped over 60% from its late 2024 high due to a disappointing Q4 update and overall market sell-off [9] - Despite missing revenue expectations, The Trade Desk achieved a revenue growth of 22%, with the CEO attributing the miss to execution missteps rather than market opportunity or competition [10][11] - The CEO remains optimistic about the company's future, suggesting that the current sell-off is overdone and that better days are ahead [11]

Core Insights - The auto industry is transitioning into the autonomous driving era, with NVIDIA positioned as a leader in AI and computing technologies for automakers [1] - General Motors has deepened its partnership with NVIDIA to integrate advanced computing and AI technologies across vehicle design, production, and driver-assistance systems [2][3] NVIDIA's Technology and Platforms - NVIDIA provides three key platforms: DGX Systems for AI model training, Omniverse for digital simulations, and DRIVE AGX for real-time data processing in vehicles [4][5] - The integration of NVIDIA's DRIVE AGX into GM's next-generation vehicles enhances safety and driver-assistance capabilities, marking a significant advancement from previous GPU usage [3] Collaborations with Other Automakers - Toyota is utilizing NVIDIA's DRIVE AGX Orin platform and DriveOS to enhance its advanced driving assistance technologies [7] - Volvo Cars integrates NVIDIA's DRIVE AGX into electric vehicle models, while Zenseact uses NVIDIA DGX for sensor data analysis [8] - Other automakers like Lucid Motors, Polestar, and Rivian are also aligning with NVIDIA to improve vehicle intelligence [9] Expansion in China - BYD has expanded its collaboration with NVIDIA, now utilizing cloud infrastructure for AI application development and factory planning [10] - Li Auto employs NVIDIA DRIVE processors to enhance its autonomous driving capabilities, moving towards fully autonomous vehicles [11] - XPeng has developed its advanced driving assistance system, XNGP, using NVIDIA's DRIVE platform [12] - NIO has integrated NVIDIA technology since 2014, evolving from basic infotainment to advanced autonomous driving solutions [13] Industry Trends - The partnerships indicate a growing recognition among automakers of the need to integrate advanced computing platforms to remain competitive in a rapidly evolving market [14] - NVIDIA is driving the next wave of mobility by transforming in-car experiences and manufacturing processes, leading to safer and smarter vehicles [15]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenues for Q4 2024 were RMB 16.11 billion, an increase of 23.4% year-over-year and 59.4% quarter-over-quarter [36] - Vehicle sales revenues were RMB 14.67 billion, up 20% year-over-year and 66.8% quarter-over-quarter, primarily due to higher deliveries [36] - Gross margin improved to 14.4% from 6.2% year-over-year and 15.3% quarter-over-quarter, while vehicle margin reached 10% compared to 4.1% year-over-year and 8.6% quarter-over-quarter [38] - Net loss for Q4 2024 was RMB 1.33 billion, slightly improved from RMB 1.35 billion year-over-year and RMB 1.81 billion quarter-over-quarter [40] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenues from services and others were RMB 1.43 billion, representing a 74.4% year-over-year increase and a 9.7% quarter-over-quarter increase, driven by technical R&D services related to Volkswagen [37] - R&D expenses increased to RMB 2.01 billion, up 53.4% year-over-year and 22.9% quarter-over-quarter, due to higher expenses for new vehicle model development [38] - SG&A expenses were RMB 2.28 billion, reflecting a 17.5% year-over-year increase and a 39.3% quarter-over-quarter increase, mainly due to higher commissions paid to franchise stores [39] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - XPeng's overseas vehicle sales exceeded 20,000 units in 2024, ranking first in export volume among China's emerging EV brands [28] - The company plans to double its international sales and establish over 300 sales and service stores worldwide by the end of 2025 [29] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to transition from vehicle electrification to an AI-driven era, with a focus on AI-powered vehicles and humanoid robots [15][32] - XPeng plans to mass-produce its self-developed Turing chip in 2025, enhancing its AI capabilities across various applications [16] - The company is committed to launching new models or updated versions every quarter starting in 2025, all equipped with the latest AI technologies [22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving significant growth, forecasting total deliveries for Q1 2025 to be between 91,000 and 93,000 units, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 317% to 326.2% [34] - The penetration rate of Advanced Urban Smart Driving among new car buyers in China is expected to exceed 10% starting in 2025, marking a turning point in demand for smart driving [19] - Management believes that AI will evolve into a crucial part of social infrastructure, with a vision of driverless vehicles and humanoid robots integrated into daily life [31][32] Other Important Information - The company reported cash and cash equivalents totaling RMB 42 billion as of December 31, 2024 [40] - XPeng's design center in Shanghai is now operational, focusing on integrating art and technology [26] Q&A Session Summary Question: Autonomous driving and competition - Management noted that advancements in smart driving technology will lead to wider adoption and create gaps between leaders and laggards in the industry [44][49] Question: Non-vehicle applications and R&D expenses - Management confirmed that synergies across AI investments will be explored, with expectations of value contributions from non-vehicle products by 2026 [56][60] Question: Turing chip and AI capabilities - The Turing chip is expected to enhance AI capabilities significantly, allowing for better customization and performance improvements [68] Question: Humanoid robot development - Management acknowledged the challenges in humanoid robot production but expressed confidence in progress, aiming for mass production by 2026 [74][77] Question: Overseas market expansion - The company is actively expanding its international presence, with plans for local manufacturing solutions and increased sales outlets [96] Question: Future goals for autonomous driving - Management discussed the goal of achieving L3 capability and the importance of data collection for improving ADAS performance [105][107]