Market Overview - The S&P 500 has shown a year-to-date increase of just under 10%, recovering from a drop of nearly 14% in April due to various market factors [1][2] - Gold has emerged as one of the best-performing assets in 2025, with a year-to-date increase of 36%, significantly outperforming Bitcoin, which is up 21% [2][3] - Newmont Mining's stock has more than doubled year-to-date, making it one of the few S&P 500 constituents to achieve such growth [2] Gold Market Insights - Newmont Mining's profitability remains strong, with production costs significantly lower than the current gold prices, trading at about eight times enterprise value to EBITDA [3] - Market volatility tends to favor gold and similar assets, with factors such as tariff fluctuations and interest rate uncertainties contributing to gold's price increase [4][5] Figma's IPO and Earnings Report - Figma's stock has declined approximately 17% following its earnings report, reflecting concerns over decelerating growth, with revenue growth dropping from 46% at IPO to 41% in the latest quarter, and an expected 33% for the next quarter [8][9] - The net dollar retention rate has also decreased from 132% at IPO to 129%, indicating a slowdown in customer spending growth [8][9] - Figma's valuation remains high at around 26 times expected revenue, raising concerns about future growth sustainability [9][10] Upcoming IPOs - Upcoming IPOs include notable companies such as Gemini, a crypto exchange founded by the Winklevoss Twins, which has innovative products but faces a crowded market [15][16] - Black Rock Coffee Roasters is another company going public, showing strong same-store sales growth but has a complex corporate structure that may not be favorable for minority shareholders [16][17] - Figure Technologies aims to innovate lending using blockchain technology, currently focusing on home equity lines of credit, but faces challenges with accounting weaknesses [17][18]

Copper steadied as traders parsed weakening US employment data that may persuade the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year more than previously expected https://t.co/Pqnw57c54M ...

Gold traded near Friday’s record high, bolstered by an unexpectedly weak US employment report that saw wagers increase on the Fed cutting interest rates https://t.co/5dQ9Y877KK ...

Government Shutdown & Political Landscape - 存在政府关门的严重可能性，因为众议院和参议院的进度严重落后，且白宫似乎不重视避免关门[3] - 白宫取消 50 亿美元的外援，激怒了立法者，这表明他们并不担心达成协议[4] - 经济影响通常不显著，通常只是将一些经济活动推迟到政府重新启动后，通常持续一周左右[6] - 民主党人认为在政治上必须对特朗普总统表现出强烈的抵抗，他们可能会利用这次机会[10] - 特朗普总统希望表明他对债务和赤字负责，而民主党人则不然，这有助于他在政治和实质上获益[11] - 市场已经习惯了政府关门，认为这是一种政治歌舞伎，但这次可能会更加重要，因为市场对债务和赤字已经感到不安[14][15] Tariffs & Trade - 特朗普政府可能会通过其他方式复制关税的影响，因为总统 40 年来一直主张征收关税，并且认为关税是个好主意[17][18] - 美国与中国达成协议的可能性大大降低，因为中国不愿帮助美国解决乌克兰和中东的冲突，也不愿与美国达成贸易协议[21][23] Economic Outlook & Monetary Policy - 9 月份降息的可能性接近 90%[26] - 最近三个月，就业增长速度约为每月 35,000 个，预计可能略有回升至 50,000 左右，但仍然是一个相当疲软的数字[28] - 关税和政策不确定性导致公司暂停扩张计划并减少招聘[32] - 估计约有 30% 到 40% 的关税转嫁给了消费者，其余成本由美国公司承担[34] - 即使关税的影响是一个缓慢而漫长的过程，但总体而言，关税的影响将是暂时的，因为物价水平会出现一次性上涨，之后通货膨胀应该会再次缓和[38] - 预计美联储将在 9 月份降息，今年可能在 12 月份再次降息，然后观望明年这些影响的发挥情况[40] - 特朗普政府正试图将美联储的组成转变为更加鸽派的方向，这可能意味着利率会略低于其他情况[42][43][44] Consumer Spending & Retail - 消费者情绪相对疲软，但消费者仍在消费，只是更加谨慎[50][51] - 只有约 22% 的关税转嫁给了消费者[53] - 零售额的增长在一定程度上是由消费者对未来事件的反应所驱动的，因为他们担心未来价格上涨，从而提前消费[55] - 高收入家庭占总家庭支出的比例越来越大，现在超过 50%，他们受到的影响较小，并且正在推动零售经济中的更多支出[56]

Economic data is telling the Fed to cut interest rates by 50 basis points or more in September. ...

I discussed this chart on "In the Know" yesterday, but did not show it. The productivity-driven boom that we are anticipating should reverse the duration of unemployment, but it is higher now than its peak in cycles before 2008-09. Another clarion call for lower interest rates! https://t.co/RD49s4K4R6ARK Invest (@ARKInvest):.@CathieDWood sees echoes of the '90s today: a weak labor market but a new tech cycle building underneath. Just as the internet sparked growth then, AI and energy innovation could lead t ...

what the Mag 7 accomplished from 2007 to today in 15 years. People have to go look. Breathtaking.Yeah. I mean, you you went from 1 trillion to 15 trillion. When you combine all that, this is going to take a lot less time.So, Bitcoin's going to get to 15 trillion. It's going to happen. And I believe it's going to happen in much less time.The reason is because of artificial intelligence. So, what's going on guys. Today we got a great episode with Jordy Visser.In this conversation, we talk about the bad jobs r ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a bullish outlook on gold and suggests long positions in gold, bonds, and sectors that can outpace China, while recommending short positions in sectors that may face inflationary pressures [2][19][20]. Core Insights - The report highlights the highest bond yields in decades, with UK long bond yields at 5.6%, France at 4.4%, Japan at 3.2%, and the US testing 5%, indicating a shift in financial conditions and potential implications for risk assets [2][19]. - It draws parallels to the Nixon era, suggesting that political pressures may lead to easing financial conditions, which could create a pre-election boom and affect market dynamics [4][20]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring payroll data and Treasury yields as indicators for risk asset performance, with a strong payroll report and falling yields being the most bullish scenario [3][19]. Summary by Sections Market Flows - Weekly flows show significant inflows into cash ($51.8 billion), bonds ($22.2 billion), and stocks ($17.6 billion), with gold also seeing inflows of $6.5 billion [13][18]. - BofA private clients have a significant allocation in equities (64.1%) and are extending duration in their bond holdings [15][57]. Economic Indicators - The report notes a potential weakening in US economic data, with construction spending down 2.8% year-over-year, which may influence Federal Reserve policy [19][26]. - It discusses the implications of rising bond yields and the stability of bank stocks, suggesting that the next significant move in bond yields is likely to be downward [19][20]. Historical Context - The report references the 1970s as a historical analog for current market conditions, highlighting the volatility and shifts in leadership among asset classes during that period [20][28]. - It suggests that investors should focus on sectors that can thrive in a high-inflation environment, drawing lessons from past market behaviors [20][28]. Sector Performance - The report indicates that small-cap and value stocks outperformed during the 1970s, suggesting a potential similar trend could emerge in the current environment [20][28]. - It highlights the performance of the "Magnificent 7" stocks, drawing comparisons to the "Nifty Fifty" of the past, indicating a potential for similar market dynamics [20][36].

💥BREAKING:RATE CUT ODDS FOR SEPTEMBER HIT 99%! 🚀 https://t.co/p6IPUjU3jo ...

How far and how fast will Fed officials move to keep cutting rates after September? https://t.co/B3riZfdQsl ...