Macro Outlook - Goldman Sachs' chief U.S economist David Mericle discusses macro outlooks [1] Economic Analysis - The discussion takes place on CNBC's 'Squawk on the Street' [1]

Welcome to Yahoo Finance's flagship show, The Morning Brief. I'm Julie Hyman. Let's get to the three things you need to know today.First up, US stock futures shooting higher on the heels of the consumer price index report. The S&P 500 set to open at a new all-time high. This coming after the September consumer inflation report showed prices rose 3% from a year ago.Economists had expected them to rise 3.1%. The market is now baking in another rate cut from the Federal Reserve. Well, they already were.Now the ...

RT Bloomberg Opinion (@opinion)@JonathanJLevin @AllisonSchrager @RenMacLLC Underlying US inflation rose by less than expected in September, keeping the Fed on course to lower interest rates next week.Tune in for live analysis 🎥https://t.co/jBWVO733A4 ...

Underlying US inflation rose by less than expected in September, keeping the Federal Reserve on course to lower interest rates next week https://t.co/gB74zgdRFT ...

Yen & Bond Market Dynamics - The yen's safe-haven status is under threat as it weakens [1] - Political uncertainty, economic concerns, and slow interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan are driving the yen's decline [2] - Increased volatility in Japan's markets presents new opportunities for profit [5] Widowmaker Trade - The "widowmaker trade" (selling Japanese government bonds) is becoming more profitable [1][2] - This trade involves borrowing and selling bonds, betting that yields will increase [3] - Rising interest rates and expectations of increased government spending by the new prime minister are driving bond traders' bets [4] Economic Shift - Japan's economy is shifting from a rut to a state of inflation and growth [4][5] - Fiscal and monetary policy decisions are now major market movers [5]

Now, Drew Mattis, chief market strategist at Metife Investment Management. You know, Drew, I have to start this off by by reminding viewers that I do cover the retail sector. And so, I think about the consumer an awful lot.And I have been really surprised pleasantly on how well the consumer has held up. I'll even go back five years, 2020. If you would have told me that we would have seen retail spending the way that we have over the last 5 years, knowing what happened in the broader world, I would have neve ...

Core Insights - Dipping mortgage rates are linked to improving sentiment among bond investors, particularly in mortgage bonds, creating opportunities for the Vanguard Mortgage-Backed Securities Index Fund ETF Shares (VMBS) [1] - Declining interest rates are making real estate more affordable, potentially revitalizing the housing industry as the spread between 30-year mortgage rates and the 10-year Treasury rate narrows [2] - The VMBS fund offers a low-cost entry into mortgage bonds with a 0.03% expense ratio and a 4.04% 30-day SEC yield, making it an attractive option for fixed income investors as rates fall [3] Fund Characteristics - VMBS has over 1,400 holdings, providing deep diversification and focusing on higher-quality credit through MBS assets guaranteed by quasi-governmental institutions and government-sponsored enterprises [4] - The fund's average effective maturity is close to seven years, positioning it as an intermediate bond fund that helps mitigate rate risk while offering higher yields [4] Housing Market Resilience - The housing market has shown resilience despite rising mortgage rates, which peaked above 7% in 2022, indicating that fears of a significant market crash were unfounded [5][6] - As mortgage rates decline, confidence in the housing market is expected to increase, positively impacting assets like mortgage-backed securities [6]

Market Trends - South Korea's property market rally gained further momentum [1] Monetary Policy - The central bank refrained from lowering interest rates [1] - The central bank is waiting for government housing measures to cool demand [1]

The pound has been supported by relatively high official interest rates - a prop that may get kicked away as inflation eases, writes @marcusashworth (via @opinion) https://t.co/WGFWUTc4GG ...

Core Insights - The prolonged government shutdown in Washington is beginning to impact Wall Street, as federal spending constitutes nearly 25% of U.S. GDP, leading to significant economic ripple effects [1][2] Economic Impact - Employees and contractors are not receiving payments, and essential permits and approvals are halted, causing a decline in business sentiment and affecting companies reliant on government spending [2] Market Performance - The S&P 500 has only decreased by 0.3% since October 1, but there is a growing disparity between sectors, with some outperforming while others lag behind [3][4] - Four sectors—utilities, healthcare, consumer staples, and technology—are outperforming the S&P 500 due to their defensive nature, providing steady dividends and stable revenues [4] Sector Analysis - Six out of eleven large-cap sectors are underperforming compared to the S&P 500 since the shutdown began [5] - The energy sector has seen the most significant decline, with a 3.8% drop overall, and a 6.5% decrease in Exploration and Production sub-industries [6] - Gold prices have risen by 12.6%, while oil prices have fallen by approximately 9% during the shutdown [6] - Occidental Petroleum has experienced a 13.4% decline, losing about $6 billion in market value [7] - The financial sector has also struggled, down 3.1% in October, primarily due to a 6.7% drop in regional banks, driven by rising loan delinquencies among mid- to lower-end borrowers [10]