Core Insights - Procter & Gamble (P&G) is a long-established blue-chip stock, known for its stability and reliable quarterly dividend of $1.06, with a modest growth of 2% in fiscal 2025, but faces potential challenges in 2026 due to recessionary fears [1][2] Consumer Sentiment and Market Position - P&G's stock has declined over 13% as of December 15, indicating a negative shift in consumer sentiment, which could lead to increased competition from private label brands as consumers seek more affordable options [4][8] - The company is significantly exposed to premium-priced consumer goods, making it vulnerable to competition from in-house labels of retailers like Walmart, Target, and Costco [5][8] Growth Strategies - To mitigate economic challenges in the U.S., P&G is focusing on expanding into emerging markets such as Asia and Latin America, as it approaches market saturation in the U.S. and Europe [6] - The company may also consider acquiring new brands in lucrative sectors like beauty and skincare to diversify its revenue streams [6] External Factors - Tariffs are expected to impact P&G's performance in 2026, with potential price increases for consumers and an anticipated $1 billion hit to its balance sheet due to tariff pressures [7]

Joining us now, Morgan Stanley, global head of fixed income research and public policy strategy, Michael Zizus. Uh, Michael, it's kind of remarkable to reflect back on 2025 uh, and really think about what the markets weathered on the policy front. Is there anything left in the tank in terms of public policy for 2026.>> Yeah, I I won't say no because that seems like it's probably the wrong answer. But what what what I would say is that next year there's definitely some policy catalyst to pay attention to the ...

Core Insights - Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG) reported a decline in both earnings and sales for the second quarter of fiscal 2026, reflecting a challenging consumer environment and lower volumes, partially offset by productivity gains and strong performance in certain growth categories [1] Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for the quarter were 45 cents, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 44 cents, but down 35.7% year over year due to lower adjusted operating profit [2] - Net sales decreased by 6.8% year over year to $2,979.1 million, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2,990 million, with a 3.9% headwind from M&A and a 3% decline in organic net sales [3][11] - Organic net sales fell 3% due to a 3% decline in volume, while price/mix remained flat, with management noting a 100-basis-point headwind from retailer purchasing patterns [4][11] - Adjusted gross profit declined 17.1% to $698 million, with adjusted gross margin contracting 292 basis points to 23.4% [5] Segment Performance - Grocery & Snacks segment net sales fell 8.5% year over year to $1,209 million, impacted by a 7.0% adverse M&A effect and a 1.5% decline in organic net sales [6] - Refrigerated & Frozen segment net sales decreased by 6.5% to $1,251 million, with a 5.1% drop in organic net sales [7] - International segment sales declined 5.4% to $230 million, reflecting a 4.1% M&A impact and a 2.9% fall in organic net sales [8] - Foodservice sales decreased 1.3% to $288 million, with organic performance reflecting a 4.2% benefit from price/mix, offset by a 4.0% volume decline [9] Financial Health - In the first half of fiscal 2026, Conagra generated net cash from operating activities of $331 million, with capital expenditures totaling $219 million, resulting in free cash flow of $113 million [12] - The company ended the second quarter with net debt of $7.6 billion and paid a dividend of 35 cents per share [12] Future Outlook - Conagra reiterated its fiscal 2026 outlook, projecting organic net sales to range from a decline of 1% to growth of 1% compared to fiscal 2025, with adjusted EPS anticipated between $1.70 and $1.85 [13] - The outlook factors in continued elevated inflation in the cost of goods sold, with core inflation expected to be slightly above 4% [14] - Total cost of goods sold inflation is projected at approximately 7%, with measures expected to raise costs by roughly 3% annually before mitigation efforts [15]

Eurozone consumer sentiment unexpectedly weakened in December despite cooling inflation and economic resilience against tariffs, a monthly indicator showed. ...

Company Overview - The Gap, Inc. (NYSE:GAP) is a prominent American apparel retailer that has experienced significant volatility in its stock price, with shares up by 15% year-to-date [2]. Stock Performance - The stock faced a notable dip of 20% on May 30th due to potential excess costs of up to $300 million related to tariffs [2]. - Following this dip, shares have rebounded, increasing by more than 21% [3]. Analyst Ratings - Morgan Stanley raised its price target for The Gap, Inc. from $27 to $28 while maintaining an Overweight rating on September 16th [3]. - Jefferies upgraded its rating from Hold to Buy and increased the price target from $22 to $30 on November 14th, citing improved web and foot traffic for key brands like Old Navy [3]. - Telsey and Baird also upgraded the shares to Outperform, setting price targets at $32 and $33 respectively [4]. Market Context - The stock's performance is influenced by ongoing legal deliberations regarding tariffs, with expectations for a Supreme Court decision in January [4]. - Jim Cramer noted that the current market sentiment is shifting towards recommending stocks like The Gap, anticipating favorable outcomes from the Supreme Court [4].

Nike Inc. (NYSE:NKE) struck a cautious tone during its earnings conference call, pushing stock lower in premarket trading Friday as investors weighed a solid second-quarter performance against a softer near-term outlook and rising margin pressures.Nike reported second-quarter revenue of $12.43 billion, topping estimates, while earnings per share came in at 53 cents, well above the 38-cent consensus. Nike Brand revenue edged up 1% to $12.1 billion.Strength in wholesale helped offset ongoing channel shifts, w ...

Trade Policy & Tariffs - The administration aimed to reset the global trading order towards a fair and balanced approach, implementing numerous trade deals and tariffs [1][2] - The tariff program is considered crucial for building a new global trading order and protecting US industry, with trading partners having largely accepted the system [5] - The removal of tariffs on specific goods like bananas, coffee, and cocoa was considered to address affordability concerns, especially for goods not produced in the United States [9] - The primary goal of the trade program is to reshore American manufacturing, protect American food security, create jobs, and increase wages, rather than driving prices [12][13] US-China Trade Relations - The US aims for stability in trade relations with China, seeking a more balanced trade relationship, with the trade deficit decreasing by 25% [20] - A potential agreement with China in the first half of next year could outline specific trade items and volumes, representing a form of managed trade [21] - Rare earth elements continue to flow from China, and China has purchased over 5 million metric tons of soybeans, indicating ongoing trade between the two countries [18] - Discussions regarding the TikTok deal involve both private sector agreements and government approvals from the US and China, with an expectation of Chinese government approval [15][16] Trade Relations with Other Regions - The US has expressed strong concerns regarding discriminatory regulatory measures by Europe against US tech companies, which appear to target companies based on revenue or business models [31][32] - Negotiations with India are ongoing to find a good landing zone, while other trade partners have concluded negotiations more quickly [36] - Mexico has requested modifications to steel and aluminum tariffs, and discussions are ongoing, with the US acknowledging Mexico's constructive approach in addressing US concerns [39][40][41] Export Controls & National Security - Export controls are fluid and constantly reviewed to balance national security with technological advancements and foreign availability [25] - Approvals for exporting certain items, like H2O chips, to China are subject to Commerce Department review to ensure US national security is not jeopardized [26] - The US government is closely monitoring China's development of AI chips and semiconductor tools [25]

Core Insights - The ongoing discussions regarding the impact of tariff policies on markets and the U.S. economy are expected to continue, especially following President Trump's announcement of new tariffs on various goods, including pharmaceuticals, furniture, and heavy trucks [1][2]. Tariff Impact Analysis - The recent article from BNY Investments highlights the complexity of determining who bears the financial burden of tariffs, noting that the full impact has yet to be realized due to several factors such as timing delays and exemptions [2][3]. - Initially, domestic firms absorbed the tariff pressures, but evidence suggests that these costs are now being passed on to U.S. consumers, as indicated by the August CPI report showing a 2.9% increase year-over-year [4]. Investment Strategy Recommendations - Given the early stage of tariff impact assessment, advisors and investors are encouraged to consider adding actively managed funds to their portfolios, which can offer flexibility in response to changing market conditions [5][6]. - The BNY Mellon Concentrated Growth ETF (BKCG) is highlighted for its active management and stock selection process, focusing on sectors with growth potential over the next three to five years [7]. - BKCG's high-conviction growth strategy has yielded positive results, with a year-to-date NAV increase of 13.98% as of October 31, 2025 [8].

Good morning. So, you just lowered your price target after this earnings, but you kept an overweight rating. Explain the rationale there.Lowering the price target, but keeping the rating. >> Uh yeah. No, good morning and uh thanks for having me.Great to be here. Uh listen, quoting, you know, Elliot Hill himself, uh this is not a turnaround that's linear, you know, by any means. uh they never are, you know, especially in a competitive consumer space and especially in this athletic space uh which is an extrem ...

Wine Industry Trends - Tariffs on imported wine are increasing costs for importers, potentially leading to higher prices for consumers [1] - Sales of alcohol are down across the entire category, influenced by factors like changing consumer preferences (e g, cannabis consumption, GLP-1 medications), cost considerations, and a general trend towards reduced alcohol consumption [1] - A Gallup poll indicates that only 54% of Americans now drink alcohol, the lowest percentage in approximately 80 years [1] - The non-alcoholic beer category is experiencing faster growth than wine [1] - The non-alcoholic wine category is rapidly expanding, with numerous new products being introduced [1] Wine Market Dynamics - Champagne from Champagne, France, typically costs over $50, while alternatives like sparkling wine from the Lir Valley in France are available for around $20 [1] - Real estate prices in Napa and Sonoma remain high, contributing to the expense of wines from those regions [2] - In Sonoma County, 30% of the grapes went unpicked this year, indicating potential financial pressure on winemakers [2] Wine Quality and Affordability - Affordable wine options, such as a $24 red blend, can offer good quality and value [2] - High-priced wines, like an Italian wine costing $189 a bottle, may not always be noticeably superior in taste to more affordable options [2]