🇺🇸 TRUMP: “Too Late” Powell is too angry, too stupid and too political to lead the Fed. He's costing the US trillions. https://t.co/6PVbxmTu3a ...

The US economy rebounded in the second fiscal quarter of the year, growing at a better thanex expected rate despite President Trump's tariffs. The country's GDP grew at a 3% pace from April to June, reversing a.5 decline from the previous quarter. Consumer spending also rose.But the growth comes despite a sharp decline in imports, which dropped by 30.3%. The Wall Street Journal editorial board called it the weirdest GDP report ever, while President Trump touted the growth as a success. all expectations.They ...

Federal Reserve Policy & Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is in no rush to adjust interest rates due to uncertainty about the economy, inflation, and the labor market [3] - The unemployment rate remains stable, similar to the previous summer [1][2][5] - The Fed aims to prevent any rise in inflation from becoming persistent, emphasizing the importance of keeping inflation expectations in check through patience [3] - The market anticipates rate cuts in the coming year, regardless of economic data, potentially influenced by a new Fed chair [13] - All Federal Open Market Committee members expect interest rates to be lower by the end of next year [17] Labor Market Dynamics - Labor demand growth is slowing, but the labor market hasn't loosened because the unemployment rate is unchanged [5] - Both labor supply and labor demand have slowed, with immigration policy being a contributing factor to the slowdown in labor supply [2][5] - Payroll employment growth has decelerated, which could become problematic if the trend continues [4] Tariff Impact & Trade Policy - The impact of tariffs on the economy is uncertain, particularly regarding inflation and business fixed investment [3][10] - A hypothetical 18%-20% tariff rate is compared to the economic tensions of the 1930s [6] - The current tariff shock may be more significant than in the 1930s due to a higher share of imports in GDP [8] - Most economists believe that tariffs will eventually be passed through to consumers, with every 1% increase in tariffs as a percent of imports adding about 01% to the price level [11][12] - An increase from 25% to 17%-18% in tariffs on imports could raise the level of prices by about 05% [12]

Economic Outlook & Monetary Policy - Consumption growth has slowed significantly, from 3% last year to only 1% this year, marking the first two descents since 1993 focused on consumer behavior and the labor market [1] - With inflation around 2-4% and short rates at 43%, the Fed's monetary policy is considered too restrictive, suggesting potential for more rate cuts than the dot plot indicates [1] Geopolitical Risks & US-China Relations - Despite potential diplomatic efforts, both the US and China are reportedly preparing for potential conflict over Taiwan [1] - The exchange of Nvidia H20 chips for rare earth magnets is viewed as a questionable transaction, potentially enabling China's military advancements [1] - Concessions to China are seen as enabling the modernization of their combat forces, particularly in AI capabilities [1] US-Russia Relations & Sanctions - President Trump is setting a deadline for a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, threatening stricter sanctions if no progress is made [1] - The US has the ability to impose more impactful sanctions on Russia by targeting remaining foreign correspondent banks that facilitate dollar transactions [2][3]

to our panel on this. So, we got what we expected, Francis. We got no cut.Okay. We got two descents from Fed governors. First time since 1993, before you were born even.Okay. I wish this this descent happened. What is Jerome Powell going to do at the next few meetings.Cuz he's on his way out and his legacy is I don't want to say on the line, but what he does is kind of how we're going to remember him because that's how things work. I might take a step back and say there's so much focus right now on Chair Po ...

💥BREAKING:POWELL SAYS FED HASN’T MADE ANY DECISIONS ABOUT SEPTEMBER MEETING. https://t.co/mC41h1r6A0 ...

LIVE: Fed Chair Jerome Powell FOMC Press Conferencehttps://t.co/yjNr1PFf04 ...

RT Bloomberg Opinion (@opinion)@Claudia_Sahm @AllisonSchrager “The framework we’re gonna get this August is gonna look really similar ... It could disappoint in terms of where the Fed is headed,” says @Claudia_Sahm 🎥https://t.co/VrIJWN8ERR ...

LIVE: Jerome Powell at the FOMC After Fed Keeps Rates Steady https://t.co/6qFrHHGFmL ...

Federal Reserve (The Fed) & Interest Rates - The biggest public misunderstanding about the Fed is the idea that lower interest rates are a reward for good economic behavior, rather than a tool to manage the economy [1][2][3] - The economy is confusing, with mixed signals from unemployment and inflation indicators, making a strong case for a rate move difficult [4][5] - There's no clear case for the Fed to move rates, and anyone confident about the correct move isn't paying attention [5] - The Fed's "transitory" inflation call was conceptually correct but numerically off, and criticisms of the Fed being behind the curve were wrong [7][8][9] - Politicizing the Fed is a clear intention, with potential for "Turkey-style" economic policy if political constraints were absent [13] Trade & Tariffs - The long-term effect of Trump's tariffs is estimated to reduce GDP by 04%, which is significant but not catastrophic [18][19] - Markets may be correctly concluding that the trade situation will settle down into a world of high tariffs, leading to a slightly poorer economy but not a depression [20][21] AI & Technology - AI, or rather large language models, are not truly "thinking" but statistically predicting responses based on existing knowledge [24][25] - Significant job displacement due to AI is possible, as many jobs don't require deep thinking [25] - It's possible to believe that some AI stock prices are in a bubble while also acknowledging that AI is a seriously important new technology [23]